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9/30-10/2 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2022 4:55:51 GMT -5
It seems as if a majority of posters here are non-blissfully unaware of the reality of a ludicrous schedule where a team plays 47% of their schedule against the same four clubs ... which in the case of the Red Sox, were in actuality the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in the league.
Ignoring the fact that the Sox roster was pretty clearly very good at beating up on bad clubs and struggled against good ones, and using a generic adjustment for the quality of each division, you have the following ranking for teams 5 through 8:
87-71 Orioles
85-72 Mariners
85-73 Guardians 81-77 Red Sox
If MLB had instituted 14 games in the division this year, instead of next and we had played just as crappy against the division and as well against everyone else ... that's also 81-77.
And the team hit terribly in the clutch most of the season, which is largely non-predictive from one year to the next.
BTW, note that every AL East team (collective .579 ball against everyone else) gets a better draft pick than they deserve, and every AL Central team (.447) gets a worse one, which perpetuates the imbalance. The Central divisions of both leagues have sucked going back to different front office and different players.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 7:58:32 GMT -5
I'm not "satisfied" with how much time he lost to injury. But if he stays healthy and puts up elite defense and average offensive production for the next 5 years to the tune of 4 WAR per season I don't understand why any fan shouldn't be satisfied with that. I am more on your side in this than the anti-Story-ers, but I would not be satisfied with average offense. He wasn’t signed to be a defense-first guy… they could’ve gotten a glove-first 2b for much less dough. They *need* him to hit more than this. I also think we should be slightly nervous about expecting elite defense into his mid-30s, especially with his arm already in decline. That said, I view this as a lost year that might not represent how he hits next year at all. Clean slate. Yeah, we're not that far apart. I would say, though, that his reputation for offense seemed to exceed the stats coming into this season. His career wRC+ was 111. So, yeah, it was down ~10% this year, which is not nothing but also not some huge underperformance. (It was 108 from May 1st on, if you're inclined to be generous re: his string of early season interruptions.) And if he gives them elite defense at 2B with great baserunning I really don't think he needs to hit any better than that.
I agree that it's hard to expect the defense to hold up through age 34 and more offense would hedge against decline there. I'd add that the K rate this year is mildly concerning. But I'm also somewhat optimistic that his second year away from Coors, with a more normal spring and early season, will help him out next year.
The good news is that he only needs to average like 2.7 WAR/year for his contract to be worth it, and that seems very attainable. The bad news is that ideally you'd like to bank some surplus value at the beginning of the contract and that obviously didn't happen in year one.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 2, 2022 8:22:10 GMT -5
It seems as if a majority of posters here are non-blissfully unaware of the reality of a ludicrous schedule where a team plays 47% of their schedule against the same four clubs ... which in the case of the Red Sox, were in actuality the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in the league.
Ignoring the fact that the Sox roster was pretty clearly very good at beating up on bad clubs and struggled against good ones, and using a generic adjustment for the quality of each division, you have the following ranking for teams 5 through 8:
87-71 Orioles
85-72 Mariners
85-73 Guardians 81-77 Red Sox
If MLB had instituted 14 games in the division this year, instead of next and we had played just as crappy against the division and as well against everyone else ... that's also 81-77.
And the team hit terribly in the clutch most of the season, which is largely non-predictive from one year to the next.
BTW, note that every AL East team (collective .579 ball against everyone else) gets a better draft pick than they deserve, and every AL Central team (.447) gets a worse one, which perpetuates the imbalance. The Central divisions of both leagues have sucked going back to different front office and different players.
It's not that we're unaware at all. We watch the games. We know the schedule. It's that we couldn't care less. I've always been with Parcells on questions like this: "You are what your record says you are." I recall an interview (it may have been on WFAN) in which he elaborated and said something like: "Nobody cares that you had to play one game on a wet field and how that wasn't fair, or how your FG kicker missed one he usually makes. You were 8 and 8." The 2022 Red Sox got off to a horrendous start, performed better once the schedule softened, slumped again, and mailed in the finish. The Red Sox played the same schedule as the other AL East teams, three of whom made the PS.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 2, 2022 9:45:07 GMT -5
It seems as if a majority of posters here are non-blissfully unaware of the reality of a ludicrous schedule where a team plays 47% of their schedule against the same four clubs ... which in the case of the Red Sox, were in actuality the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in the league. Ignoring the fact that the Sox roster was pretty clearly very good at beating up on bad clubs and struggled against good ones, and using a generic adjustment for the quality of each division, you have the following ranking for teams 5 through 8:
87-71 Orioles
85-72 Mariners
85-73 Guardians 81-77 Red Sox If MLB had instituted 14 games in the division this year, instead of next and we had played just as crappy against the division and as well against everyone else ... that's also 81-77.
And the team hit terribly in the clutch most of the season, which is largely non-predictive from one year to the next.
BTW, note that every AL East team (collective .579 ball against everyone else) gets a better draft pick than they deserve, and every AL Central team (.447) gets a worse one, which perpetuates the imbalance. The Central divisions of both leagues have sucked going back to different front office and different players.
I watched almost every game, and I'm well aware of what teams the Red Sox play. With respect, Eric, this sounds like a rationalization for why, for long stretches, the Sox were mediocre to just plain bad this year. I think the Rays, Jays and NYY were in the same boat this year and last year...and every year before that going back to the strike in the 1990s. Saying the Sox didn't get to play in the AL Central or AL West but if they did, they'd be in the playoffs is a bit academic. But it's also a strawman. We can rationalize all we want, but the division is what it is and has been for decades. It's a spiked gauntlet. That's a given. Baseball Ops has to create a team to get through that gauntlet. Or, as Theo famously said, "We're building this team to beat the Yankees." Most years, if you can do that, you have a winning record and can pretty much have your way with the other two divisions. Or as William Goldman famously wrote (and Peter Faulk said) in The Princess Bride: "Who says life is fair? Where is that written?"
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 2, 2022 9:57:22 GMT -5
All true. It was never going to be easy, and the tattered pitching staff didn't help. That's a function of age as well as wear and tear. It's a cautionary tale about building a team that's resilient, and doing it with a mandate to stay in the vicinity of the spending cap. That burden will ease going forward, but definitely a down year here.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2022 9:58:25 GMT -5
It seems as if a majority of posters here are non-blissfully unaware of the reality of a ludicrous schedule where a team plays 47% of their schedule against the same four clubs ... which in the case of the Red Sox, were in actuality the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in the league. Ignoring the fact that the Sox roster was pretty clearly very good at beating up on bad clubs and struggled against good ones, and using a generic adjustment for the quality of each division, you have the following ranking for teams 5 through 8:
87-71 Orioles
85-72 Mariners
85-73 Guardians 81-77 Red Sox If MLB had instituted 14 games in the division this year, instead of next and we had played just as crappy against the division and as well against everyone else ... that's also 81-77.
And the team hit terribly in the clutch most of the season, which is largely non-predictive from one year to the next.
BTW, note that every AL East team (collective .579 ball against everyone else) gets a better draft pick than they deserve, and every AL Central team (.447) gets a worse one, which perpetuates the imbalance. The Central divisions of both leagues have sucked going back to different front office and different players.
We're not oblivious Eric. Some of us live in the real world where what happened happened. Your comment about blocking people who acknowledge that the Sox finished last is laughable, as if one can't accept reality. The facts are there are five teams in that division and four of them finished a healthy margin ahead of the Red Sox. Hence, last place. We are nuanced enough to know that it's a brutal division and the Red Sox are not a 100 loss type of team even if they actually spent the second half of the season playing that way. Yes, we all know the schedule changes next year and should provide some relief to the Sox and their overall record, but if the Sox are still clearly inferior to the other four teams on the division, then that's still problematic. An easier schedule for the Sox is great, but it's also great for the other four teams in the division that knock each other off. Yes, they lose games against their division doormat, the Red Sox, but I'm sure they're looking forward to less divisional games against each other in favor of easier teams in the other divisions. I'd say most of us grasp that concept and conclude that if the Sox are still clearly inferior to the Yankees, Rays. Jays, and Orioles, they'd still struggle to either make the playoffs or go far if they did as the 3rd wild card.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 10:06:42 GMT -5
I took eric's point to be about 2023, not 2022. The schedule will be more balanced, and as he said, part of the issue was their poor clutch hitting this year, which shouldn't be predictive. So that's two improvements to this team's expected performance before anything is even done to the roster.
(And if eric were referring to 2022, he's merely saying they "should" be 81-77 and 6 games behind the Orioles, so it's not exactly singing their praises...)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2022 10:16:30 GMT -5
I took eric's point to be about 2023, not 2022. The schedule will be more balanced, and as he said, part of the issue was their poor clutch hitting this year, which shouldn't be predictive. So that's two improvements to this team's expected performance before anything is even done to the roster. (And if eric were referring to 2022, he's merely saying they "should" be 81-77 and 6 games behind the Orioles, so it's not exactly singing their praises...) The problem is that the schedule change thing is beneficial for the rest of the division as well. Clutch or unclutch there are four teams clearly ahead of them at this point. The Yankees are a 95 win team virtually every year. The Sox aren't at that level. If the Yankees lose Judge, then maybe they unravel a bit, but I have trouble seeing that happen. And their pitching has been so much better as well. I always think the Rays are vulnerable but somehow they manage to overachieve every year and their farm system is still very strong. The Jays are in their win now mode and they're still basically young enough. When they play the Sox they look light years ahead of them. The Orioles are ascending and have a great system. The Red Sox have an improving farm system but I think they're a lot more farther away than simply running it back and hoping for better health and luck. They need a major overhaul this winter and I don't know how Bloom can do this. It should be more entertaining than the actual season was.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2022 10:27:18 GMT -5
I took eric's point to be about 2023, not 2022. The schedule will be more balanced, and as he said, part of the issue was their poor clutch hitting this year, which shouldn't be predictive. So that's two improvements to this team's expected performance before anything is even done to the roster. (And if eric were referring to 2022, he's merely saying they "should" be 81-77 and 6 games behind the Orioles, so it's not exactly singing their praises...) Out of curiosity… because I don’t have a position nor do I have data… is poor clutch hitting not predictive? Do players vary dramatically season-to-season in clutch hitting? We tend to think of guys as clutch (or chokers)… is that more streaky?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 10:35:33 GMT -5
I took eric's point to be about 2023, not 2022. The schedule will be more balanced, and as he said, part of the issue was their poor clutch hitting this year, which shouldn't be predictive. So that's two improvements to this team's expected performance before anything is even done to the roster. (And if eric were referring to 2022, he's merely saying they "should" be 81-77 and 6 games behind the Orioles, so it's not exactly singing their praises...) The problem is that the schedule change thing is beneficial for the rest of the division as well. Yeah but it hurts teams in the other divisions, and it's now possible for four teams from the AL East to make the playoffs. On net it is (obviously) better for the Red Sox to play fewer games within the division. No one denies that the AL East is going to continue to be a super tough division, but it's not like it's completely hopeless. The Yankees have won 95 games 3 times in the last ten years. The Red Sox have finished ahead of them in 3 of the last 6 years. Your timing for repeatedly saying this seems odd to me. Of course they aren't going to just run it back - there's almost certainly going to be massive changes to the roster, and the team hasn't had this much financial flexibility in years. A major overhaul is precisely what they're positioned to do. In fact, C and 1B have already been overhauled, with excellent early results. RF and much of the pitching staff are still to come.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 10:45:12 GMT -5
I took eric's point to be about 2023, not 2022. The schedule will be more balanced, and as he said, part of the issue was their poor clutch hitting this year, which shouldn't be predictive. So that's two improvements to this team's expected performance before anything is even done to the roster. (And if eric were referring to 2022, he's merely saying they "should" be 81-77 and 6 games behind the Orioles, so it's not exactly singing their praises...) Out of curiosity… because I don’t have a position nor do I have data… is poor clutch hitting not predictive? Do players vary dramatically season-to-season in clutch hitting? We tend to think of guys as clutch (or chokers)… is that more streaky? ericmvan could answer this better, but the Red Sox are 22nd in fangraphs' clutch stat this year after being 7th last year. They were 26th in 2019 after being 1st in 2018. Seems pretty darn non-predictive.
My hunch is that there's some loose year-to-year correlation at the individual level for some players, but none at all at the team level.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2022 10:54:34 GMT -5
The problem is that the schedule change thing is beneficial for the rest of the division as well. Yeah but it hurts teams in the other divisions, and it's now possible for four teams from the AL East to make the playoffs. On net it is (obviously) better for the Red Sox to play fewer games within the division. No one denies that the AL East is going to continue to be a super tough division, but it's not like it's completely hopeless. The Yankees have won 95 games 3 times in the last ten years. The Red Sox have finished ahead of them in 3 of the last 6 years. Your timing for repeatedly saying this seems odd to me. Of course they aren't going to just run it back - there's almost certainly going to be massive changes to the roster, and the team hasn't had this much financial flexibility in years. A major overhaul is precisely what they're positioned to do. In fact, C and 1B have already been overhauled, with excellent early results. RF and much of the pitching staff are still to come.
Yes, I'm aware that it makes it easier for the Sox to capture the 3rd wild card, assuming they actually can beat out another division opponent whose schedule also got easier, odds are they're going to have to go through a stronger AL East opponent and the way they look against them... Since the Yankees became the Yankees, in 1996, they've won 95 or more 16 times in 25 full seasons. If you lower that threshold to 90 wins then it's 20 times in 25 seasons. If that's too long a sample size to be relevant to you then this current incarnation of the team has averaged 95 plus wins since 2017, excluding 2020, so I think it makes sense to assume 95 wins for a typical Yankess team with 90 if it's a down year or 100 if it's an up year. If it's a rebuilding year then its 85 wins. And no, my last point was more in response to Eric's thesis that if the Sox simply run back last year's team with better schedule, health, and luck, they're in good shape. I don't see that. I think they need to make a helluva lot of moves, big, small, and in between this winter. Incremental moves around the edges wont move the meter much. I agree with you. They'll be busy. They have to be.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 2, 2022 10:58:50 GMT -5
I'm not "satisfied" with how much time he lost to injury. But if he stays healthy and puts up elite defense and average offensive production for the next 5 years to the tune of 4 WAR per season I don't understand why any fan shouldn't be satisfied with that. but he didn't. At what point does it become about real time production. It was a lost season for him. It isn't compromising a belief to say so. Thank you, Jerry. I was wondering if anyone would agree that this was a lost year for Story. But all it takes is a stat from Fangraphs and all the barking seals slam their flippers together in agreement. Suddenly it’s the “dumbest thing anyone has read all day” to point out his obvious underachievement this season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2022 11:11:49 GMT -5
but he didn't. At what point does it become about real time production. It was a lost season for him. It isn't compromising a belief to say so. Thank you, Jerry. I was wondering if anyone would agree that this was a lost year for Story. But all it takes is a stat from Fangraphs and all the barking seals slam their flippers together in agreement. Suddenly it’s the “dumbest thing anyone has read all day” to point out his obvious underachievement this season. I don't think his season was a disaster but it's worrisome. It's a six year deal at 23 million/year and his offense is average and the defense is pretty good, albeit for a 2b. For me, it's hard to imagine that they spent that much money for him to play 2b as opposed to SS. But ok, average hitter with above average offense defense at 2b in an injury truncated season. Not a Sandoval/Crawford like issue, but not exactly a huge win either. And that's year 1 of 6 as he turns 30 next year. He's coming off 2 uninspiring offensive seasons in a row after being above average in Colorado thru 2020. I do worry that his offense declines and as he ages his defense wont be as good as it is this year. His SS days might be over.....or he could be the starting 2023 SS for all we know. The overall concern is that he becomes below average offensively and average defensively at a lot of money for a long time. I don't think this is a major concern over the next two seasons, but we'll see after that. I wouldn't call 2022 a lost season for Story but for the price he cost I don't think it was that great either.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 2, 2022 11:31:48 GMT -5
but he didn't. At what point does it become about real time production. It was a lost season for him. It isn't compromising a belief to say so. Thank you, Jerry. I was wondering if anyone would agree that this was a lost year for Story. But all it takes is a stat from Fangraphs and all the barking seals slam their flippers together in agreement. Suddenly it’s the “dumbest thing anyone has read all day” to point out his obvious underachievement this season. I expected Story to have a bit of a down year due to his late start to ST. When he played he was a productive player. As others have pointed out, 4 WAR is a solid player. But he's already a disappointment if you believe two things: 1.) CB signed him to replace X at SS and 2.) The metrics on his arm strength say in a loud voice that he's not a candidate to play SS. Still, I'd love to go into 2023 with an IF of Casas, Story, X and Raffy. That might be one of the best in the game. We need to figure out a solid platoon in LF (I'm Ok with Dugie in RF), add some DH types who can platoon and also play the field on occasion) and hit on several relievers. The line about barking seals slamming their flippers together made me laugh. The imagery is priceless.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 11:46:08 GMT -5
but he didn't. At what point does it become about real time production. It was a lost season for him. It isn't compromising a belief to say so. Thank you, Jerry. I was wondering if anyone would agree that this was a lost year for Story. But all it takes is a stat from Fangraphs and all the barking seals slam their flippers together in agreement. Suddenly it’s the “dumbest thing anyone has read all day” to point out his obvious underachievement this season. Fangraphs says he was worth 2.4 WAR. b-ref says 2.5 WAR. Why do you think these evaluations were off? What is your actual disagreement with the stats here? No one's preventing you from actually making a case to defend your position but so far you've refused to do it.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 11:50:25 GMT -5
Thank you, Jerry. I was wondering if anyone would agree that this was a lost year for Story. But all it takes is a stat from Fangraphs and all the barking seals slam their flippers together in agreement. Suddenly it’s the “dumbest thing anyone has read all day” to point out his obvious underachievement this season. I expected Story to have a bit of a down year due to his late start to ST. When he played he was a productive player. As others have pointed out, 4 WAR is a solid player. But he's already a disappointment if you believe two things: 1.) CB signed him to replace X at SS and 2.) The metrics on his arm strength say in a loud voice that he's not a candidate to play SS.Still, I'd love to go into 2023 with an IF of Casas, Story, X and Raffy. That might be one of the best in the game. We need to figure out a solid platoon in LF (I'm Ok with Dugie in RF), add some DH types who can platoon and also play the field on occasion) and hit on several relievers. The line about barking seals slamming their flippers together made me laugh. The imagery is priceless. I kind of think Bloom did sign him to replace Xander but with 2B as a viable backup alternative (in the event they re-signed Xander or a different non-Xander shortstop). The fact that his arm strength looks poor plus the fact that he's taken to 2B like a fish to water has made that an even more viable long-term plan, with the shift ban an added bonus.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 2, 2022 12:55:17 GMT -5
I dunno, I am disappointed that Story hit .238/.303/.434 with tons of strikeouts and think his contract prob has pretty serious negative value going forward now.
He was still a good player this year and I hope he crushes next season.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 2, 2022 13:11:21 GMT -5
It seems as if a majority of posters here are non-blissfully unaware of the reality of a ludicrous schedule where a team plays 47% of their schedule against the same four clubs ... which in the case of the Red Sox, were in actuality the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in the league.
Ignoring the fact that the Sox roster was pretty clearly very good at beating up on bad clubs and struggled against good ones, and using a generic adjustment for the quality of each division, you have the following ranking for teams 5 through 8:
87-71 Orioles
85-72 Mariners
85-73 Guardians 81-77 Red Sox
If MLB had instituted 14 games in the division this year, instead of next and we had played just as crappy against the division and as well against everyone else ... that's also 81-77.
And the team hit terribly in the clutch most of the season, which is largely non-predictive from one year to the next.
BTW, note that every AL East team (collective .579 ball against everyone else) gets a better draft pick than they deserve, and every AL Central team (.447) gets a worse one, which perpetuates the imbalance. The Central divisions of both leagues have sucked going back to different front office and different players.
Eric, do NOT lump everyone together! I have been complaining about the schedule imbalance since the MLB went to three divisions! It is boring, boring, boring watching 76 games against the same four teams!!! The Red Sox come to the team closest to where I live once every 6 years! I want to see more games against the Royals, Indians 😂, Padres, Rockies, Marlins….. All the AL teams should play an equal number of games against all other AL teams, especially as the wild card is league wide. Eric, don’t act like you are the only one who understands the schedule!
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2022 13:33:49 GMT -5
Wacha has been very good, but he has also come back to Earth a bit. I’d consider resigning him, but I’d expect regression. Don’t expect him to be in the front half of the rotation.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2022 13:49:58 GMT -5
Still a game thread? Anyone else watching the ball leaving the park off the Jays' bats?
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Post by benzinger on Oct 2, 2022 13:55:52 GMT -5
Thank you, Jerry. I was wondering if anyone would agree that this was a lost year for Story. But all it takes is a stat from Fangraphs and all the barking seals slam their flippers together in agreement. Suddenly it’s the “dumbest thing anyone has read all day” to point out his obvious underachievement this season. Fangraphs says he was worth 2.4 WAR. b-ref says 2.5 WAR. Why do you think these evaluations were off? What is your actual disagreement with the stats here? No one's preventing you from actually making a case to defend your position but so far you've refused to do it. I would say perhaps there’s some margin for error in the calculation for defensive WAR, in general. I don’t treat that stuff as gospel. If you are going to tell me that Story played $15m of defense(or whatever it is) this season for the Sox, I’m going to call bullshit there. He definitely plays good defense. But he was mostly uninspiring with the bat and he missed half the season. For you, and others, to circle the wagons and pretend that he was mostly worth the money this season is ridiculous. He was a virtual non-factor. This is when advanced metrics meet reality, IMO.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2022 14:00:29 GMT -5
I hope Gausman is ok. I have entered second-season, when my team is NotTheYankees, and so I want the Jays etc. to enter the postseason full strength.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 14:04:45 GMT -5
I hope Gausman is ok. I have entered second-season, when my team is NotTheYankees, and so I want the Jays etc. to enter the postseason full strength. The problem is that with this idiot seeding system they have, the Blue Jays would line up to play the Astros in the second round, in which case we would want the Astros to win as the best non-Yankees team, in which case we would want to the Blue Jays to be weak going into that series.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2022 14:40:54 GMT -5
Better late than never, I guess, Bobby D
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