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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2022 15:11:17 GMT -5
I'm a bit worried about how Devers will age and if the Red Sox bring back Xander then it could make sense to move Devers and use his salary to fill holes elsewhere.
Mets Receive:
- Rafael Devers
- Connor Seabold
Red Sox Receive:
- Eduardo Escobar
- Brett Baty
- Luis Rodriguez
Baty is the prize here, the 3rd baseman is ranked top 40 (top 20 by some) in most publications he has big power potential but a ground-ball oriented swing. Spent most of last season in AA and had his year ended by a UCL injury. Probably needs a year in AAA before he's ready.
Escobar is an older (33) solid 3B/IF signed for one more season at 10mil with a team option for another. Rodriguez is a raw low minors Lefty coming off TJ surgery.
I picked the Mets here as they seem like a team more willing to make the splash of trading for Devers and placing him in the middle of their lineup rather than waiting for Baty to develop - it's essentially a swap of current/future 3rd base situations. Baty may be too high a prize for a year of Devers, but let me know what you guys think. (if it's close but a little short, the removal of Rodriguez or a swap of Murphy or Walter instead of Seabold may be possible)
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Post by xdmo on Oct 13, 2022 1:56:22 GMT -5
Love the idea and it could probably work, but if you're extending Xander, you're doing it so he can play 3B down the road in 3 years.
That would get in the way of Baty if that happened. Would rather sign Correa with the thought of moving him to second base down the road or something.
I often don't know where to stand on Devers. It's a tough decision. They need him, but 30 million for a DH in 5 years is probably the worst mistake you could ever do (unless Devers turns into Bonds).
I just hope they don't keep Devers for one year (with the hopes for a wild card yay). Sorry for the sarcasm. Make a decision like Mookie. Pay him or move on.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 13, 2022 8:30:21 GMT -5
The Mets had a great 2022 season with a very disappointing finish. I could definitely see them willing to make a move for the near term.
What does Baty's defense look like? I see he has played a little OF in the minors which might help the pieces fit down the road if X is moving off of SS.
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Post by hawkeye1118 on Oct 13, 2022 9:57:09 GMT -5
I'm OK with trading Devers but we must get back a young stud pitcher along with a replacement 3B. Would rather approach Miami. They are stocked with what we need.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 13, 2022 10:08:25 GMT -5
If they trade Devers for a 45 hit grade Bobby Dalbec clone, that's an utter failure. (Based off of Fangraphs update)
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Post by natesp4 on Oct 13, 2022 10:40:02 GMT -5
Basically dead even per MLB Trade Values, but I'm very low on Baty. It'd have to be an overpay like Parada + Mauricio + lottery ticket for me to be interested, and this is only if it's clear they can't extend Devers due to an exorbitant asking price.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2022 12:59:11 GMT -5
Thanks for the feedback guys. Here are my thoughts/knowledge of what's been discussed:
- Given the two previous attempts by Xander to play 3rd early in his career went catastrophically poorly, I don't see him as a long-term option there and would expect a move to LF. That said, if they have Baty, they can kick that decision down the road and move Baty to LF if that makes more sense.
- Baty's defense is considered average or fringe-average, with a plus arm and fringe-average speed.
- Would love to get back a young stud 3rd baseman AND a young stud pitcher...but that seems a bit much for Devers with only 1 year left on his deal. That's why I went with a low-chance but high-upside arm here.
- Fangraphs seems to be the low-man on Baty right now (ranked #52) and they have him at a projected '50' hit tool. MLB.com has his hit tool at '60' but that seems a bit bullish. He hit .312 with a 25% strikeout rate in AA this year.
- I'm not high-or-low on Baty. Parada would be nice, but is a bit far away and I'm not sure he stays at catcher. Mauricio's sub-par batting and poor plate discipline worry me - seems like a high upside gamble type of player. But I'm sure there are many packages that could work - I was looking to solve the short & long-term 3rd base hole as we don't have anyone in-system to takeover (aside from Arroyo). The reports of the distance between the Red Sox offers and Devers' asking price concern me as well - would hate to see him leave as a free agent.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 14, 2022 13:05:40 GMT -5
Thanks for the feedback guys. Here are my thoughts/knowledge of what's been discussed: - Given the two previous attempts by Xander to play 3rd early in his career went catastrophically poorly, I don't see him as a long-term option there and would expect a move to LF. That said, if they have Baty, they can kick that decision down the road and move Baty to LF if that makes more sense. - Baty's defense is considered average or fringe-average, with a plus arm and fringe-average speed. - Would love to get back a young stud 3rd baseman AND a young stud pitcher...but that seems a bit much for Devers with only 1 year left on his deal. That's why I went with a low-chance but high-upside arm here. - Fangraphs seems to be the low-man on Baty right now (ranked #52) and they have him at a projected '50' hit tool. MLB.com has his hit tool at '60' but that seems a bit bullish. He hit .312 with a 25% strikeout rate in AA this year. - I'm not high-or-low on Baty. Parada would be nice, but is a bit far away and I'm not sure he stays at catcher. Mauricio's sub-par batting and poor plate discipline worry me - seems like a high upside gamble type of player. But I'm sure there are many packages that could work - I was looking to solve the short & long-term 3rd base hole as we don't have anyone in-system to takeover (aside from Arroyo). The reports of the distance between the Red Sox offers and Devers' asking price concern me as well - would hate to see him leave as a free agent. This argument has never made much sense to me, X played a grand total of 53 games at 3rd base when he was 20/21 years old. I don't see how anyone can look at that and come to the conclusion that he would still struggle at the position. Personally I think X would be a fine 3rd baseman as his glove isn't necessarily his issue with his defense at SS it is his range which is less important at 3rd base. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2022 14:17:39 GMT -5
Thanks for the feedback guys. Here are my thoughts/knowledge of what's been discussed: - Given the two previous attempts by Xander to play 3rd early in his career went catastrophically poorly, I don't see him as a long-term option there and would expect a move to LF. That said, if they have Baty, they can kick that decision down the road and move Baty to LF if that makes more sense. - Baty's defense is considered average or fringe-average, with a plus arm and fringe-average speed. - Would love to get back a young stud 3rd baseman AND a young stud pitcher...but that seems a bit much for Devers with only 1 year left on his deal. That's why I went with a low-chance but high-upside arm here. - Fangraphs seems to be the low-man on Baty right now (ranked #52) and they have him at a projected '50' hit tool. MLB.com has his hit tool at '60' but that seems a bit bullish. He hit .312 with a 25% strikeout rate in AA this year. - I'm not high-or-low on Baty. Parada would be nice, but is a bit far away and I'm not sure he stays at catcher. Mauricio's sub-par batting and poor plate discipline worry me - seems like a high upside gamble type of player. But I'm sure there are many packages that could work - I was looking to solve the short & long-term 3rd base hole as we don't have anyone in-system to takeover (aside from Arroyo). The reports of the distance between the Red Sox offers and Devers' asking price concern me as well - would hate to see him leave as a free agent. This argument has never made much sense to me, X played a grand total of 53 games at 3rd base when he was 20/21 years old. I don't see how anyone can look at that and come to the conclusion that he would still struggle at the position. Personally I think X would be a fine 3rd baseman as his glove isn't necessarily his issue with his defense at SS it is his range which is less important at 3rd base. It's choosing to go with past results, which are very old, or a theoretical projection. Many shortstops can play 3rd base without issue, but not all. Hoping/thinking Xander can play 3rd makes sense, but planning on him playing 3rd without any evidence to support it, and there being past evidence to disprove it, would be poor planning. It also makes sense thinking that 'Xander's poor range is why he isn't a better SS' and assuming that he would be better at a position which requires less range. But 'range' is mostly the sum of foot-speed and reaction-speed. As Xander has above-average foot speed I would argue that reaction speed is his problem (like it was with Jeter, for instance). Given that 3rd basemen have less time to react than SS, it makes sense that Xander may be a very poor 3rd baseman. As Xander also struggled offensively while at 3rd, and the Red Sox haven't tried him at any position aside from SS since 2014, I have concerns that he would be able to pick-up any new position without extensive practice. So I'm also hoping he can play at least a passable LF in this scenario. Add: It should also be noted that Statcast shows Xander has shown below average arm strength (for a SS) in each of the past 3 years (25 of 34, 38 of 58, 34 of 50). Historically he has been far better with OAA against LHH (+8 since 2017) than RHH (-42 since 2017) which also indicates arm strength is an issue; which further diminishes the argument for Xander being a quality 3rd baseman. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 14, 2022 14:27:55 GMT -5
This argument has never made much sense to me, X played a grand total of 53 games at 3rd base when he was 20/21 years old. I don't see how anyone can look at that and come to the conclusion that he would still struggle at the position. Personally I think X would be a fine 3rd baseman as his glove isn't necessarily his issue with his defense at SS it is his range which is less important at 3rd base. It's choosing to go with past results, which are very old, or a theoretical projection. Many shortstops can play 3rd base without issue, but not all. Hoping/thinking Xander can play 3rd makes sense, but planning on him playing 3rd without any evidence to support it, and there being past evidence to disprove it, would be poor planning. It also makes sense thinking that 'Xander's poor range is why he isn't a better SS' and assuming that he would be better at a position which requires less range. But 'range' is mostly the sum of foot-speed and reaction-speed. As Xander has above-average foot speed I would argue that reaction speed is his problem (like it was with Jeter, for instance). Given that 3rd basemen have less time to react than SS, it makes sense that Xander may be a very poor 3rd baseman. As Xander also struggled offensively while at 3rd, and the Red Sox haven't tried him at any position aside from SS since 2014, I have concerns that he would be able to pick-up any new position without extensive practice. So I'm also hoping he can play at least a passable LF in this scenario. Well, he's been one of the best SS in baseball since he's settled in to the majors. One of the most important positions on the field, why would they try him anywhere other than his natural position where he offers the most value? Also it's more likely to me that Xander struggled offensively while at 3rd because he was a 20-21 year old in the majors just struggling to get acclimating to the pitching. I get that he's not a guarantee to be a good 3rd baseman and you bring up good points as to why they could/should be hesitant but if I'm the Sox I still take the risk of giving him a large deal for 6-7 years with the thought he probably ends up at 2nd/3rd base the last 1-3 seasons. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2022 14:46:07 GMT -5
Well, he's been one of the best SS in baseball since he's settled in to the majors. One of the most important positions on the field, why would they try him anywhere other than his natural position where he offers the most value? Also it's more likely to me that Xander struggled offensively while at 3rd because he was a 20-21 year old in the majors just struggling to get acclimating to the pitching. I get that he's not a guarantee to be a good 3rd baseman and you bring up good points as to why they could/should be hesitant but if I'm the Sox I still take the risk of giving him a large deal for 6-7 years with the thought he probably ends up at 2nd/3rd base the last 1-3 seasons. The idea that Xander was getting accustomed to pitching in the big leagues during 2013 & 2014 makes sense, but take a look at the splits: 2013 at 3rd: 41 sOPS+ 2013 at SS: 139 sOPS+ 2014 at 3rd: 44 sOPS+ 2014 at SS: 114 sOPS+ We're looking at small sample sizes but the splits are extreme (sOPS+ isn't park adjusted, it was the best I could find for these splits). With the stark difference in performance along with the myriad of quotes showing that he's more comfortable at SS (https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2014/05/xander_bogaerts_on_move_to_thi.html) and it seems pretty clear that there was something mental going on past the ability to play 3rd base. Perhaps with his age/maturity he could overcome those issues now, but as he has continued to push back on the media asking him about playing other positions, I'm concerned the issue still exists. I'd want to give Xander a full offseason (at least) before trying him at a new position. I feel much more comfortable if Xander's next contract expects him to be a LF/DH/1B in 3-4 years and then we hope he can play 3rd/2nd if the need is there. Otherwise there's a great risk his extension will be a bad one (although I feel good about his bat as he ages). btw, check the previous post about the arm if you haven't yet - I added it after. Moderator: We got a bit off subject - any chance you could move these past few posts to a Xander general discussion thread? |
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