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2023 40-Man Roster Discussion
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 25, 2023 13:07:15 GMT -5
Took a look today - 9 new names in the 40 man. Adding Tapia will mean one more cut - so a 25% turnover. I don't know if this is typical, more or less (haven't checked the data).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 25, 2023 13:41:23 GMT -5
Took a look today - 9 new names in the 40 man. Adding Tapia will mean one more cut - so a 25% turnover. I don't know if this is typical, more or less (haven't checked the data). Seems pretty normal. Between the Rule 5 deadline and offseason acquisitions it wouldn't even surprise me if that's a relatively low turnover.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2023 14:25:47 GMT -5
Took a look today - 9 new names in the 40 man. Adding Tapia will mean one more cut - so a 25% turnover. I don't know if this is typical, more or less (haven't checked the data). Tapia is getting a minor league deal. If he (or Alfaro or Goodrum) is added in camp, he takes the Story-to-the-60-day spot.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 27, 2023 6:03:18 GMT -5
If you look at the pitching depth chart, it's pretty clear that Brasier is the guy they're trying to move. He's out of options and, though still useful, is thus blocking two even better pitchers.
The seven starters (including Houck) begin the pitching depth chart. Jansen, Martin, and Rodriguez are acquisitions with no options left, Barnes has no options left and still projects as at least a 7th inning guy, and Schrieber is way too good to option. So now we're up to 12 guys for 13 spots.
HOW I COULD BE WRONG
It's possible that they have a much higher frequency of pitcher IL trips projected. If 3 guys hurt at once is common (the way I think 2 is), then both Crawford and Mills will see lots of time in MLB and Brasier as the 16th guy may be someone you want to keep around. In that case they're shopping someone else, perhaps Abreu as they've added so many NRI outfielders. And in that case, they might decide that no one is offering enough and DFA Ort after all.
I love a guy who can sum up “how I could be wrong” in a few sentences. Obviously I had the depth chart wrong (like everyone else) so it's interesting to reconstruct it after the fact.
You start with an easy 11, the guys I named above less Barnes. If they acquire another LHR like Moore, there's a solid 12.
The next tier is Brasier, Crawford, and Mills. Brasier, not Barnes, is your #4 RHR, and is a constant. If everyone's healthy then one (if no added LHR) or both (if there is) of Mills and Crarwford is optioned.
I don't think you dump Barnes if he's 15th on the depth chart. In that case, he's likely alternating between blocking one of the better pair (just 1 injury), or neither (two or more).
There are 2 ways of his being 16th. One is, they're absolutely planning on signing Moore or someone else as an upgrade to Taylor.
The other is that they are collectively high on Germano, Kelly, and Ort and figure that one of them is bound to pass Barnes. That seems unlikely.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2023 8:04:45 GMT -5
I think you're overthinking it.
They needed a 40-man spot. If you have a bunch of guys you think of about equally at the bottom, the one without options (who you're apparently also bearish on in terms of his returning to past form) is the one you DFA.
They clearly like Brasier more than Barnes. Mills, Ort, Kelly, German have options and they didn't like Barnes enough more to DFA one of them. I'm pretty sure it's that simple.
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Post by basbal24 on Jan 30, 2023 15:14:04 GMT -5
I think it's Ort's turn & they hope to get Him to Worcester
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Post by notnickyorke on Jan 30, 2023 16:00:42 GMT -5
It's got to be Ort or Braiser. At this point it probably should be Braiser, so they can have someone in the pen who can be optioned when they need a fresh arm. All the other spots in the bullpen are filled with guys who can't be optioned (Jansen, Martin, Rodriguez, Bleier) or guys who have to be in the majors based on performance (Schriber, Whitlock, Houke). If Whitlock is in the rotation, the person he's replacing (Paxton, Pivetta) probably gets moved to the pen.
Do they like one optionless year of Braiser better then multiple option years of Ort?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 16:13:44 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three.
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Post by notnickyorke on Jan 30, 2023 16:31:28 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. Probably some combination of being the oldest, already used an option (Kelly and German haven't), impressed the least at the big league level (other than German's 4 inninngs), and has been expendable depth on the team for the longest
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 16:35:40 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. Probably some combination of being the oldest, already used an option (Kelly and German haven't), impressed the least at the big league level (other than German's 4 inninngs), and has been expendable depth on the team for the longest All valid, though the latter two are points against Mills who only has one option left and has been about as bad in similar MLB time. I just feel none of them have pitched enough at the MLB level to really know, and if they like Ort's stuff more those aren't strong enough reasons to keep one of the others instead. My gut is I agree that he's probably low man, but it's talked about with more certainty than I think makes sense.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,853
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Post by cdj on Jan 30, 2023 17:00:24 GMT -5
I see Ort has been moved to inactive pitchers on the projected rosters page 👀
Our pal Ed Hand says it ain’t gonna be Brasier on his twitter
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 30, 2023 17:03:37 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 17:05:00 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. German DFA'd, instant vindication.
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Post by notnickyorke on Jan 30, 2023 17:12:20 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. German DFA'd, instant vindication. Very suprised
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nomar
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Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jan 30, 2023 17:12:54 GMT -5
Wow DFA’ing German surprises me. I had higher hopes in him as a reliever long term than Ort, Kelly, etc.
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Post by basbal24 on Jan 30, 2023 17:14:34 GMT -5
SHocked ! Must have another deal up his sleeve !!
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 17:16:44 GMT -5
Wonder if someone will send a lotto ticket for German, probably get a 4th PTBNL I'm guessing.
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Post by natesp4 on Jan 30, 2023 17:28:46 GMT -5
One thing I've learned this offseason is I'm not ever saying the phrase "We know XXXXX isn't getting DFA'd" again
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jan 30, 2023 17:34:50 GMT -5
One thing I've learned this offseason is I'm not ever saying the phrase "We know XXXXX isn't getting DFA'd" again You can only rule out Devers and Brasier
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 30, 2023 17:36:29 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. Thanks for bringing this up - I had taken this for granted off of a general feeling and this gave me a chance to collect my thoughts. I still do think Ort is lowest on the totem pole, for a few reasons:
It was a fairly small sample (25 G for Ort and 13 G for Kelly), but Kelly looked great last year (2.76 xERA) and Ort did not (5.35 xERA). The Sox also just traded for Mills. I get that teams will trade for guys and then DFA them, but in this case we gave up a relief prospect that wasn't on the 40 man to get him. Unless we thought Mills was a huge upgrade over Wallace, I don't get trading a non-40-man reliever for a 40-man reliever that you intend to DFA. That leaves German, who is only 25 and who last year had similar AAA numbers to Ort, who turns 31 on Sunday. Mills and Kelly will both be 28 by Opening Day, so they also have the age advantage over Ort.
Edit: Omfg in the time away from my computer before finishing this post this became obsolete. L taken!
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 30, 2023 17:36:40 GMT -5
One thing I've learned this offseason is I'm not ever saying the phrase "We know XXXXX isn't getting DFA'd" again You can only rule out Devers and Brasier Mike trout DFA incoming
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 17:42:03 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. Thanks for bringing this up - I had taken this for granted off of a general feeling and this gave me a chance to collect my thoughts. I still do think Ort is lowest on the totem pole, for a few reasons:
It was a fairly small sample (25 G for Ort and 13 G for Kelly), but Kelly looked great last year (2.76 xERA) and Ort did not (5.35 xERA). The Sox also just traded for Mills. I get that teams will trade for guys and then DFA them, but in this case we gave up a relief prospect that wasn't on the 40 man to get him. Unless we thought Mills was a huge upgrade over Wallace, I don't get trading a non-40-man reliever for a 40-man reliever that you intend to DFA. That leaves German, who is only 25 and who last year had similar AAA numbers to Ort, who turns 31 on Sunday. Mills and Kelly will both be 28 by Opening Day, so they also have the age advantage over Ort.
Edit: Omfg in the time away from my computer before finishing this post this became obsolete. L taken!
Tough timing haha but all fair reasons! I think it's possible they just think Ort is better than German and the extra option and age aren't a big deal. It's also possible that they think they can get something for German and maybe not Ort and this will speed up the market there. Moving German for a non-40 guy with some stuff makes sense to me.
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Post by trhubbs on Jan 30, 2023 18:13:11 GMT -5
Of the 4 relievers with options (Ort, Kelly, Mills, German) everybody seems certain Ort is lowest on the totem pole and I'm not totally sure why? Their AAA numbers are mostly comparable and maybe Ort was in tougher spots? I don't know who the right answer is but it's not obvious to me that Ort should go before one of the other three. Thanks for bringing this up - I had taken this for granted off of a general feeling and this gave me a chance to collect my thoughts. I still do think Ort is lowest on the totem pole, for a few reasons:
It was a fairly small sample (25 G for Ort and 13 G for Kelly), but Kelly looked great last year (2.76 xERA) and Ort did not (5.35 xERA). The Sox also just traded for Mills. I get that teams will trade for guys and then DFA them, but in this case we gave up a relief prospect that wasn't on the 40 man to get him. Unless we thought Mills was a huge upgrade over Wallace, I don't get trading a non-40-man reliever for a 40-man reliever that you intend to DFA. That leaves German, who is only 25 and who last year had similar AAA numbers to Ort, who turns 31 on Sunday. Mills and Kelly will both be 28 by Opening Day, so they also have the age advantage over Ort.
Edit: Omfg in the time away from my computer before finishing this post this became obsolete. L taken!
I think your logic makes perfect sense if it’s a straight release on Ort or German. But they probably can’t get anything for Ort and can for German, and if they think they are similar pitchers might as well DFA the one you can get a non-40-man ticket for and keep the other.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 30, 2023 18:22:24 GMT -5
How does Ort and Kelly survive over German? I don't get the Ort love.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,853
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Post by cdj on Jan 30, 2023 18:44:40 GMT -5
Ort ended the year with a strong September. If you subtract the 28-5 game against Toronto (8 runs in 2/3 of an inning) his numbers were actually solid on the year. Pretty sure ERA under 4 if my quick, inattentive math is accurate
Couple that with him hitting triple digits and I can see why they want to give him a shot
Kelly is just good
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