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2023 40-Man Roster Discussion
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2022 22:19:08 GMT -5
Redoing my analysis from 4 days ago:
New math: you always project one extra guy to be on the MLB roster, because there's almost always someone on the IL at any point in time, and there's almost always a pitcher on the IL. That's why I haven't changed the number of pitcher acquisitions even though I've promoted Brasier from likely trim to keeper. They must know something about his bad stretches last year (and he did have some real good ones).
They need to add a SS, a RF/LF, a DH, and 3 pitchers. They likely will add a RHH catcher as well.
That's 6 or 7 adds.
Likely trims, DFA'd one by one as they add players, and hopefully clearing waivers.
Taylor D. Hernandez R. Hernandez
That's 5 spots for a likely 7 additions. (If they draft someone in the Rule 5, that would be the extra pitcher acquisition. I think that's unlikely.)
Players who project to be on option (15)
Dalbec Mata Wong Seabold Duran Downs Winckowski Ort German Valdez Rafaela
Walter Murphy Hamilton Abreu
You want that number to be 13.
And like I said last time, you can trade either Winckowski or Seabold, and Downs.
So the difference here is adding Brasier to the MLB roster, and subtracting Franchy from the optioned player list.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 19, 2022 12:26:45 GMT -5
lots of needs to fill. what are we waiting for ? show me something and set the market or sign areas that need to be addressed.
and why is the offseason thread closed ? this is the only place to comment about the general offseason ?
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 19, 2022 12:31:25 GMT -5
lots of needs to fill. what are we waiting for ? show me something and set the market or sign areas that need to be addressed. and why is the offseason thread closed ? this is the only place to comment about the general offseason ? While id love to start seeing some moves so we had something to talk about on the board literally nobody of any consequence has signed yet, not sure what you want the Sox to do? I could see if FAs were flying off the board but they aren't. We'll have some moves soon enough.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 19, 2022 14:15:02 GMT -5
lots of needs to fill. what are we waiting for ? show me something and set the market or sign areas that need to be addressed. and why is the offseason thread closed ? this is the only place to comment about the general offseason ? They certainly seem to be good at creating a snooze-fest.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 19, 2022 16:33:39 GMT -5
lots of needs to fill. what are we waiting for ? show me something and set the market or sign areas that need to be addressed. and why is the offseason thread closed ? this is the only place to comment about the general offseason ? They certainly seem to be good at creating a snooze-fest. I'd give it until mid December. No team in MLB has done much to this point. MLB off-season are a crawl.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2022 17:54:53 GMT -5
They certainly seem to be good at creating a snooze-fest. I'd give it until mid December. No team in MLB has done much to this point. MLB off-season are a crawl. Agreed. I want the Red Sox to be aggressively smart and not passive, but it is early. I don't expect much to happen with anybody until December. Wouldn't mind an announcement that the Sox have re-signed X and extended Devers but I won't hold my breath.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 19, 2022 18:06:44 GMT -5
lots of needs to fill. what are we waiting for ? show me something and set the market or sign areas that need to be addressed. and why is the offseason thread closed ? this is the only place to comment about the general offseason ? While id love to start seeing some moves so we had something to talk about on the board literally nobody of any consequence has signed yet, not sure what you want the Sox to do? I could see if FAs were flying off the board but they aren't. We'll have some moves soon enough. sure, i get that. But you don't have to wait for other teams, they can be first in line. I don't think is a safe assumption that if you wait, things will turn out better, or more according to plan. There is another philosophy that the early bird gets the worm. They have had over 6 weeks to plan and not worry about games, i just don't want to see positive roster construction lost because they aren't being decisive. Maybe it is the players, so you have to account for that.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 19, 2022 18:45:35 GMT -5
While id love to start seeing some moves so we had something to talk about on the board literally nobody of any consequence has signed yet, not sure what you want the Sox to do? I could see if FAs were flying off the board but they aren't. We'll have some moves soon enough. sure, i get that. But you don't have to wait for other teams, they can be first in line. I don't think is a safe assumption that if you wait, things will turn out better, or more according to plan. There is another philosophy that the early bird gets the worm. They have had over 6 weeks to plan and not worry about games, i just don't want to see positive roster construction lost because they aren't being decisive. Maybe it is the players, so you have to account for that. Why do you think they're waiting? Aren't there already reports of offers to Bogaerts, Eovaldi, an extension for Devers? Maybe other players as well. But they can't just force the players to accept their offers, as you are aware; the players have an incentive to wait out the market themselves.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 19, 2022 20:54:48 GMT -5
sure, i get that. But you don't have to wait for other teams, they can be first in line. I don't think is a safe assumption that if you wait, things will turn out better, or more according to plan. There is another philosophy that the early bird gets the worm. They have had over 6 weeks to plan and not worry about games, i just don't want to see positive roster construction lost because they aren't being decisive. Maybe it is the players, so you have to account for that. Why do you think they're waiting? Aren't there already reports of offers to Bogaerts, Eovaldi, an extension for Devers? Maybe other players as well. But they can't just force the players to accept their offers, as you are aware; the players have an incentive to wait out the market themselves. i think they are waiting because nothing has been done. Look at the 40 man. We have lost 2 starting pitchers, we are down a DH, down infield personnel, need a 1B, need relief, need OF. We all agree there was gonna be big change this year, it isn't like 2019 when there was gonna be little turnover. The amount of change that is going to happen, seems to me that it would be better to get going. The SS position, it is understandable that SS players may wait. But for a lot of guys, it is a game of musical chairs, it has always been in FA market. If someone like that is offered a job in Boston, where he is likely to maximize his contract, it would be a big risk to turn it down. Devers signing is 98 % not gonna happen. He would kind of be foolish to take an offer at this point. He would have to be totally blown away by the offer. We have a ton of money to spend. When you have the money, the agents are gonna seek us out. They know who has what. It is time to use that to our advantage. He has done his research, it is time to start filling the spots. The longer he waits, the less options he will have. actually 3 starting pitchers with Hill. Paxton isn't a real thing until he actually pitches.
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Post by rico6 on Nov 19, 2022 22:08:07 GMT -5
Why do you think they're waiting? Aren't there already reports of offers to Bogaerts, Eovaldi, an extension for Devers? Maybe other players as well. But they can't just force the players to accept their offers, as you are aware; the players have an incentive to wait out the market themselves. i think they are waiting because nothing has been done. Look at the 40 man. We have lost 2 starting pitchers, we are down a DH, down infield personnel, need a 1B, need relief, need OF. We all agree there was gonna be big change this year, it isn't like 2019 when there was gonna be little turnover. The amount of change that is going to happen, seems to me that it would be better to get going. The SS position, it is understandable that SS players may wait. But for a lot of guys, it is a game of musical chairs, it has always been in FA market. If someone like that is offered a job in Boston, where he is likely to maximize his contract, it would be a big risk to turn it down. Devers signing is 98 % not gonna happen. He would kind of be foolish to take an offer at this point. He would have to be totally blown away by the offer. We have a ton of money to spend. When you have the money, the agents are gonna seek us out. They know who has what. It is time to use that to our advantage. He has done his research, it is time to start filling the spots. The longer he waits, the less options he will have. actually 3 starting pitchers with Hill. Paxton isn't a real thing until he actually pitches. I am almost as anxious as well. I don't think we will see any movement until the winter meetings. I'm waiting to see what moves they make as I have concerns that it will be bargain shopping instead of signing some difference makers for the lineup. I like working the margins as long as they have a strong core. It will be interesting to see how Bloom fills out the roster this offseason and what he ends up with for a core lineup.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 23, 2022 6:28:15 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 23, 2022 7:21:10 GMT -5
Very interesting, I'm not sure I buy the Royals just giving us Barlow for Duran/Hosmer. But I will eat my socks in joy if that happens. Literally....I will eat socks.
Dalbec for Okert might be more available, and Maimi might be willing to live with the hot/cold bat of Bobby to see what he can develop into, although the Sox might have to send another low level prospect over to entice them.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 23, 2022 9:56:11 GMT -5
Would like to have seen a replay on Hunter Renfroe to restore some of this team’s lost power. But he’s on to his fifth team in five years.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 23, 2022 10:29:51 GMT -5
Would like to have seen a replay on Hunter Renfroe to restore some of this team’s lost power. But he’s on to his fifth team in five years. Wow, this speaks volumes about Hunter Renfroe. He hits HRs, but not a high OBP. He can throw out base runners, but is not good defensively. He is someone 4 different teams have passed on, but maybe the Angels are low enough down the standings to keep him.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2022 10:47:14 GMT -5
Would like to have seen a replay on Hunter Renfroe to restore some of this team’s lost power. But he’s on to his fifth team in five years. Wow, this speaks volumes about Hunter Renfroe. He hits HRs, but not a high OBP. He can throw out base runners, but is not good defensively. He is someone 4 different teams have passed on, but maybe the Angels are low enough down the standings to keep him. It's not like he's bad though; he's an adequate average-ish outfielder. It's just that arbitration is determined by a bunch of old-timey stats that don't align with the way teams actually value players these days, and Renfroe racks up the old-timey stats disproportionate to his overall value. (Was there any effort to address this in the new CBA?)
ADD: Though incidentally, his xwOBA since 2018 has gone .325, .314, .318, .354, .323. 2021 looks like an outlier for him, though it's masked by the fact that his wOBA was nearly identical in 2021 and 2022. He still seems to me like a strong candidate for negative regression.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,753
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Post by mobaz on Nov 23, 2022 11:09:59 GMT -5
Wow, this speaks volumes about Hunter Renfroe. He hits HRs, but not a high OBP. He can throw out base runners, but is not good defensively. He is someone 4 different teams have passed on, but maybe the Angels are low enough down the standings to keep him. It's not like he's bad though; he's an adequate average-ish outfielder. It's just that arbitration is determined by a bunch of old-timey stats that don't align with the way teams actually value players these days, and Renfroe racks up the old-timey stats disproportionate to his overall value. (Was there any effort to address this in the new CBA?) Chaim thought he was worth $3M but not $8M. The Brewers thought he was worth $8M minus JBJ savings but not $11M. Angels think he's worth $11M but not more. In Free Agency, seems like $8-10M is fair for a starting corner OF with a few plus skills. He's at 2.5 bWAR 4 of the past 5 years.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,753
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Post by mobaz on Nov 23, 2022 11:39:29 GMT -5
My favorite part! Also has Abreu/Xander/Hainger as starters, though is mostly shrug emoji on Hainger.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 23, 2022 16:11:49 GMT -5
A thought, phrased as a philosophical argument (P = premise, C = Conclusion). "Premises" are statements believed to be true. P1. So far, if there has been any correlation between well-sourced reports about what Bloom is looking to do, and what he's actually done, it's negative. It seems as if their M.O. is to leak what they'd like other teams to believe they're looking to do, and tell no one about what they actually have in mind. P2. They went over the tax limit last year when the odds were very much against it paying off by getting them into the the playoffs. This strongly suggests that they actually place less value on the penalties than we think. What's the projected talent value of Rodon or Verlander minus the penalties, versus Senga, etc. without them? P3. This team still makes a lot of money. The owner has been wiling to spend. Being a serious contender next year by ending the "Tampa Bay North" nonsense will more than pay for the money it takes, when you add the change in fan attitudes.
P4. They just filled the LHR need with a dirt-cheap attractive upside guy, which is consistent with saving money to spend on other positions.
P4. It's difficult to see them getting anywhere near $75M in new salary (saving $5M for deadline trades) by signing the rumored targets, including Xander.
P5. The only very expensive position player who fills a need is Nimmo. I may well be wrong about his being unlikely to sign with the Sox because Fenway is a bad fit, but given that it appears to be, and how many other teams will be after him, it can't be the case that they are banking on signing him.
P6. Bloom just stated that they haven't ruled any FA out. He'd say that anyway, of course, but he may well be telling the truth.
P7. In today's Globe, O'Halloran is quoted as saying the Sox want to build a "championship-caliber rotation." What does that mean? From 2010 to 2017 only one WS winner had two starters with 3.7 bWAR or more, the exception being the curse-busting '16 Cubs (who had 3). In the 5 latest years four of the 5 WS winners have had 2 starters with 3.7+ WAR, and the '19 Nats and '22 Astros had 3 each (the '20 Dodgers were the exception).
P8. To even compete in the AL East you have to be a championship-caliber team. Per P3 above, they need to be a serious contender.
P9. Nathan Eovaldi, a rumored target, has had one season in his career with 2.4 bWAR or better. Michael Wacha, who seems like an excellent bang for-buck depth option (and O'Hallaron mentioned adding depth), has had seasons of 3.0 and 3.3 (last year). Neither guy is a game 2 starter the way the game is now.
C. Reports to the contrary, they are still in on Rodon and maybe Verlander and DeGrom as well (although the latter two might require filling both DH / OF and corner OF via trade).
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2022 16:46:28 GMT -5
A thought, phrased as a philosophical argument (P = premise, C = Conclusion). "Premises" are statements believed to be true. P1. So far, if there has been any correlation between well-sourced reports about what Bloom is looking to do, and what he's actually done, it's negative. It seems as if their M.O. is to leak what they'd like other teams to believe they're looking to do, and tell no one about what they actually have in mind. P2. They went over the tax limit last year when the odds were very much against it paying off by getting them into the the playoffs. This strongly suggests that they actually place less value on the penalties than we think. What's the projected talent value of Rodon or Verlander minus the penalties, versus Senga, etc. without them? P3. This team still makes a lot of money. The owner has been wiling to spend. Being a serious contender next year by ending the "Tampa Bay North" nonsense will more than pay for the money it takes, when you add the change in fan attitudes.
P4. They just filled the LHR need with a dirt-cheap attractive upside guy, which is consistent with saving money to spend on other positions.
P4. It's difficult to see them getting anywhere near $75M in new salary (saving $5M for deadline trades) by signing the rumored targets, including Xander.
P5. The only very expensive position player who fills a need is Nimmo. I may well be wrong about his being unlikely to sign with the Sox because Fenway is a bad fit, but given that it appears to be, and how many other teams will be after him, it can't be the case that they are banking on signing him.
P6. Bloom just stated that they haven't ruled any FA out. He'd say that anyway, of course, but he may well be telling the truth.
P7. In today's Globe, O'Halloran is quoted as saying the Sox want to build a "championship-caliber rotation." What does that mean? From 2010 to 2017 only one WS winner had two starters with 3.7 bWAR or more, the exception being the curse-busting '16 Cubs (who had 3). In the 5 latest years four of the 5 WS winners have had 2 starters with 3.7+ WAR, and the '19 Nats and '22 Astros had 3 each (the '20 Dodgers were the exception).
P8. To even compete in the AL East you have to be a championship-caliber team. Per P3 above, they need to be a serious contender.
P9. Nathan Eovaldi, a rumored target, has had one season in his career with 2.4 bWAR or better. Michael Wacha, who seems like an excellent bang for-buck depth option (and O'Hallaron mentioned adding depth), has had seasons of 3.0 and 3.3 (last year). Neither guy is a game 2 starter the way the game is now.
C. Reports to the contrary, they are still in on Rodon and maybe Verlander and DeGrom as well (although the latter two might require filling both DH / OF and corner OF via trade).
3.7 WAR feels like an arbitrary number to include Price in the 2018 Red Sox count. If you raise it to 4.0 they had one guy - Sale - who wasn't even very good in the playoffs anyways. I also disagree with P4 - I think it's really easy to see how they spend $75M without getting one of those guys and multiple posters here have laid out paths to doing it. Not to say they definitely won't but I disagree with this premise, as well as the premise that they need to do this to have a chance next year. Between Sale, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock and an addition like Senga/Eovaldi, they could get to that 3.5+ WAR range across multiple guys anyhow.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 23, 2022 18:33:18 GMT -5
They traded Inmer Lobo to skip the waiver line to get Hoy Park who was DFA'ed from the Pirates. www.fangraphs.com/players/hoy-park/18027/stats?position=2BLobo got 10k and put up good stats as an 18 y/o pitcher in the DSL this year. They now have 3 MI on the 40 at Worcester, plus Christian Koss. And I guess Valdez is technically a MI too
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Post by ramireja on Nov 23, 2022 18:51:24 GMT -5
Hmmm...I don't necessarily feel like the team as currently constructed needs more 40-man depth players that don't project as starters. In my own projections they're already going to need to trim a few guys off the 40-man to make room for upcoming acquisitions and I'm not sure Hoy Park projects to be any better than the guys who are already fringe.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2022 19:00:38 GMT -5
I guess I really don't understand the need to get a guy on Hoy who doesn't even play well in AAA and trade a possible prospect for him.
If the scouting report is that the 18 year old lefty pitcher Lobo is a soft tosser whose ceiling is up and down pitcher or organizational guy, ok, no big deal either way, but if that kid pitches well enough to be even Joely Rodriguez then I dont get the deal. Signing a cheap utility guy isnt that hard to do so I don't get the need to trade for one especially with their 40 man roster situation.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 23, 2022 19:10:51 GMT -5
Hmmm...I don't necessarily feel like the team as currently constructed needs more 40-man depth players that don't project as starters. In my own projections they're already going to need to trim a few guys off the 40-man to make room for upcoming acquisitions and I'm not sure Hoy Park projects to be any better than the guys who are already fringe. Roster back to 40 now with Park and Rodriquez coming on. Park makes no sense unless they are done with Downs and plan to DFA him when a spot is needed. Rodriquez makes more sense as LH relief options are pretty weak at this point.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 23, 2022 19:18:27 GMT -5
Park feels like a Alex Cora (the player) type with speed. I actually like the move. If Valdez don't hit out of spring training, he might be the last man on the bench type.
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cdj
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Posts: 13,857
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Post by cdj on Nov 23, 2022 19:19:01 GMT -5
NOT THE WOLF NOOOOOOOO
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