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Post by amfox1 on Apr 19, 2013 7:21:08 GMT -5
The Youk comp is not terrible, actually, except for handedness.
Age 23 - A+/AA (mostly) - 310/436/424/860, 63/93 K/BB Age 24 - AA/AAA........ - 285/441/409/850, 61/104 K/BB
Of course, Youk's trajectory, power-wise, changed in the mid-to-late 20s. There is no way to know whether Shaw's will change similarly, or at all.
The Berkman comp is, of course, all sorts of terrible and should be dropped.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 19, 2013 8:31:43 GMT -5
Didn't Shaw already show a glimpse of a power surge last year? Granted most of it was at Salem, which I have little use for, but he had 16 hrs and .545 slugging% in 99 games.
I think we go too far in trying to pinpoint what these guys are going to be. He's a solid prospect that has some promise. If all our 9th rd college prospects had his development curve, we'd be doing ok. He still may never be anything at the major league level, but its been good to see thus far and I am intrigued by his progress. He's not someone I'm banking on, but he's not some lottery ticket with a 1 and a million chance either.
Youk is a solid comp for his development path not to compare as a player.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 19, 2013 10:21:52 GMT -5
Six doubles out of 12 hits, 13-10 BB-K ratio. It's...early. *If* he can turn around his BB-K ratio from his MiL career numbers, that would be a huge leap forward.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 19, 2013 20:25:37 GMT -5
The Youk comp is not terrible, actually, except for handedness. Age 23 - A+/AA (mostly) - 310/436/424/860, 63/93 K/BB Age 24 - AA/AAA........ - 285/441/409/850, 61/104 K/BB Of course, Youk's trajectory, power-wise, changed in the mid-to-late 20s. There is no way to know whether Shaw's will change similarly, or at all. The Berkman comp is, of course, all sorts of terrible and should be dropped. I don't like a cheap comp but I just intended to point out how often Travis Shaw draws walks. Youk drew 331 walks / 1837 PAs for his minor career while Shaw is getting 35 walks / 192 PAs in Portland. 18% vs 18.2%
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Post by larrycook on Apr 25, 2013 12:14:47 GMT -5
The Youk comp is not terrible, actually, except for handedness. Age 23 - A+/AA (mostly) - 310/436/424/860, 63/93 K/BB Age 24 - AA/AAA........ - 285/441/409/850, 61/104 K/BB Of course, Youk's trajectory, power-wise, changed in the mid-to-late 20s. There is no way to know whether Shaw's will change similarly, or at all. The Berkman comp is, of course, all sorts of terrible and should be dropped. I don't like a cheap comp but I just intended to point out how often Travis Shaw draws walks. Youk drew 331 walks / 1837 PAs for his minor career while Shaw is getting 35 walks / 192 PAs in Portland. 18% vs 18.2% How much of his power struggles thus far this season is due to the weather?
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Post by elguapo on Apr 25, 2013 12:26:29 GMT -5
How much of his power struggles thus far this season is due to the weather? 8%. He had 66 xbh last season and 7 doubles so far this year. 19 walks and 15 K's - still looking good. Command the strike zone and sooner or later you'll get good pitches to hit.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 27, 2013 8:41:46 GMT -5
Zero for 2 with 2 more walks last night. Hard to tell how his swing looks, because we don't get to see it much.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2013 9:44:25 GMT -5
20 games played, on base in all of them so far.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 19, 2013 12:01:57 GMT -5
So with Travis putting up a .361/.452/.705 slash line in the Arizona Fall League, does anyone think he raised his prospect status at all? Does he get a shot at AAA in the Spring, or is he pretty much gauranteed to start the year in Portland? He has the power and on-base to be moved up, but his regular season batting avg just kills his slash line. Still a .342 OBP is pretty impressive when you're only hitting .221. And considering there is no natural 1B in the system to block him in AAA, I honestly think it makes sense to challenge him rather than sign some quad-A late 20's/early 30's re-tread to play 1B.
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Post by raftsox on Nov 19, 2013 12:20:59 GMT -5
So with Travis putting up a .361/.452/.705 slash line in the Arizona Fall League, does anyone think he raised his prospect status at all? Does he get a shot at AAA in the Spring, or is he pretty much gauranteed to start the year in Portland? He has the power and on-base to be moved up, but his regular season batting avg just kills his slash line. Still a .342 OBP is pretty impressive when you're only hitting .221. And considering there is no natural 1B in the system to block him in AAA, I honestly think it makes sense to challenge him rather than sign some quad-A late 20's/early 30's re-tread to play 1B. That's usually indicative of a player who has the discipline to lay off bad pitches, but lacks the ability to hit their pitch. I think it's a no-brainer he starts the year back in Portland.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 19, 2013 13:56:22 GMT -5
This was the 1st year he had struggled, and it was nice to see him make adjustments and do so well in Arizona. Yeah....I think he is still a prospect and has a decent chance of ending up Pawtucket in the middle of the summer, if he is really back on track. Really not sure what we have there, but lets face it, it was probably pretty hard to take John Kruk seriously while he was coming up and look what he did! Baseball is littered with tales of players with "bad" bodies making it to the show. THIS year will tell us A LOT!
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Post by Guidas on Nov 19, 2013 14:00:20 GMT -5
So with Travis putting up a .361/.452/.705 slash line in the Arizona Fall League, does anyone think he raised his prospect status at all? Does he get a shot at AAA in the Spring, or is he pretty much gauranteed to start the year in Portland? He has the power and on-base to be moved up, but his regular season batting avg just kills his slash line. Still a .342 OBP is pretty impressive when you're only hitting .221. And considering there is no natural 1B in the system to block him in AAA, I honestly think it makes sense to challenge him rather than sign some quad-A late 20's/early 30's re-tread to play 1B. That's usually indicative of a player who has the discipline to lay off bad pitches, but lacks the ability to hit their pitch. I think it's a no-brainer he starts the year back in Portland. I've been told repeatedly to put zero stock into offensive statistics from AFL. The sample is small, many of the players are tired, the sample is small and the sample is small.
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 19, 2013 14:43:11 GMT -5
You shouldn't ignore any sample, no matter the size. If you add in his AFL numbers (a really cheap, easy method, but totally imporper), his 2013 line increases by 50 points of OPS.
Anyway, I expect him to be in AAA at the start of 2014. He has 733 PAs of AA + AFL. His BABIP was excessively low, which, as we all know, could easily be due to his skill set. But, it could also be poor luck.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 19, 2013 15:17:12 GMT -5
You shouldn't ignore any sample, no matter the size. If you add in his AFL numbers (a really cheap, easy method, but totally imporper), his 2013 line increases by 50 points of OPS. And those 50 points still leave his 2013 OPS below .800. Unless there is a specific skill that the Red Sox think needs challenging in Triple-A in order to advance/stimulate Shaw's development, Portland is the likely destination. The Red Sox will likely want to add at least one veteran bat for organizational depth, and first base seems like a spot where they can do that. That said, Shaw will likely be given the opportunity at Pawtucket if/when he hits his way out of Portland.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 19, 2013 15:21:13 GMT -5
I think for Shaw to pan out he needs to either command the strike zone or reliably hit for power, and this season at Portland he was only decent in both areas.
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Nov 19, 2013 15:45:54 GMT -5
That's usually indicative of a player who has the discipline to lay off bad pitches, but lacks the ability to hit their pitch. I think it's a no-brainer he starts the year back in Portland. I've been told repeatedly to put zero stock into offensive statistics from AFL. The sample is small, many of the players are tired, the sample is small and the sample is small. Also, pitchers can be working on a certain mechanic that facilitates hitting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2013 15:47:07 GMT -5
You shouldn't ignore any sample, no matter the size. If you add in his AFL numbers (a really cheap, easy method, but totally imporper), his 2013 line increases by 50 points of OPS. Anyway, I expect him to be in AAA at the start of 2014. He has 733 PAs of AA + AFL. His BABIP was excessively low, which, as we all know, could easily be due to his skill set. But, it could also be poor luck. The stats come from a much different kind of league though. Different climate, arguably inferior pitching, different playing situation (they play every other day, more or less). We shouldn't make too much of Shaw's success just like we shouldn't make too much of Betts and Cecchini not really doing all that well. It was nice to see Shaw consistently hitting well, and hopefully he'll carry that into the start of 2014 with Portland.
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 19, 2013 17:10:54 GMT -5
Agreed in general (that is what the parenthetical was meant to convey), but it is more than merely a qualitative approach. You can take a more rigorous quantitative approach and just translate the numbers. I'm just being lazy.
Anyway, it sounds like the consensus from the SP folks is that he'll start in Portland, which will be a slight disappointment to me (I care more about reps than outcomes, typically). After ~700 AA PAs, I'd want to see a promotion. I think he is a better player than given credit for, but I've seen him only a time or three, and what do I know?
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2013 17:28:26 GMT -5
I'd rather see Shaw in Pawtucket than have a Mauro Gomez/Mark Hamilton-type there. If the Red Sox need an emergency first baseman, Hassan would probably be the first minor league up anyways (not to mention Carp and Nava on the MLB roster).
One potential problem: both Shaw and Almanzar are ready for Pawtucket, and there just isn't room for both of them there even if the org doesn't add a guy at 1B. DH at-bats will be pretty scarce, too, with Butler/Lavarnway and the odd man out of the four outfielders needing time there.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 20, 2013 8:10:16 GMT -5
Yea the big reason I don't see a need to add organizational depth at 1B in Pawtucket, is because the only reason that guy gets a call up to play 1B in Boston, is if Napoli (I assume either he, or an outside 1B is starting there in 2014), Nava, and Carp all go down. Plus there will probably be a couple guys who will take reps at 1st in the Spring for emergencies like Hassan, Middlebrooks, maybe Lavarnway, etc. It seems like there's a lot better options at 1B than a Mauro Gomez or Mark Hamilton-type of player, and there's no reason to not challenge Shaw at AAA. What is to be gained by sending him back to AA? He'll be 24 at the start of next season, and has 600+ AB's in AA. I say it's sink or swim time. If he can just pull off a .260 AVG, he becomes a legitimate prospect with his OBP skills and present power.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 20, 2013 8:39:24 GMT -5
One potential problem: both Shaw and Almanzar are ready for Pawtucket, and there just isn't room for both of them there even if the org doesn't add a guy at 1B. DH at-bats will be pretty scarce, too, with Butler/Lavarnway and the odd man out of the four outfielders needing time there. I don't know if Shaw is ready for Pawtucket. In Portland he was a pull happy hitter who failed to adjust or alter his approach for the entire season. And while he does grind out AB's and draws a good number of walks, his pull happy swing is not going to play well in AAA. I think we should leave him in Portland to start the year. Make him prove to us that he can have some success at the AA level and that he can get his contact rate up. If he shows this, then promote him to Pawtucket in June.
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Post by docman on Nov 20, 2013 9:20:32 GMT -5
That is pretty clearly Buster Bunny from Tiny Toon Adventures. I gotta' agree with you on this one. If you just glance at the picture, you say, wait, that's a really bad Buggs Bunny. Then you look a little closer and say, hey, Buster, that's you, isn't it?! I tried to like Tiny Toons, but just couldn't get myself to go there. The cast was just not very funny. And, yes, this is all tongue-in-cheek.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 9:49:18 GMT -5
Shaw just isn't much of a prospect at this point so his placement will have less to do with what's best for him and more to do with organizational need. If Boston thinks he should be in AAA for his own development but thinks putting him there affects what they are doing with Hassan, Almanzar, Cecchini and others, then he's going to AA to keep him out of the way until he forces his way up.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 10:55:00 GMT -5
I don't know if Shaw is ready for Pawtucket. In Portland he was a pull happy hitter who failed to adjust or alter his approach for the entire season. And while he does grind out AB's and draws a good number of walks, his pull happy swing is not going to play well in AAA. I think we should leave him in Portland to start the year. Make him prove to us that he can have some success at the AA level and that he can get his contact rate up. If he shows this, then promote him to Pawtucket in June. Shaw already has 662 Portland PAs. This is one of those situations where I think he should be promoted, even if he hasn't "conquered" Portland yet. I generally think it's bad player development to league a guy in a league until he kills it-- sometimes you just need to challenge them at a higher level. For instance, the Red Sox did this with Drake Britton in 2012, when he had a 5.80 ERA in Salem but was promoted anyways because he'd already gotten 140+ IP there. Or how Jose Vinicio is probably ticketed for Salem even though he was terrible in Greenville last year. As was mentioned, Shaw is 24 already and this is probably hi last sink-or-swim year. There's a 1B opening in Pawtucket, and I see no reason to make him wait before he has a hot start at Portland to promote him. Shaw just isn't much of a prospect at this point so his placement will have less to do with what's best for him and more to do with organizational need. If Boston thinks he should be in AAA for his own development but thinks putting him there affects what they are doing with Hassan, Almanzar, Cecchini and others, then he's going to AA to keep him out of the way until he forces his way up. I'm likely in the minority, but I think Shaw is still as good of a prospect as Almanzar (the website obviously disagrees-- Almanzar is ranked 26th while Shaw is languishing at 46; I think they should both be in the 30-40 range). Shaw plays better 1B defense, walks more, and shows more in-game power than Almanzar, albeit with a good bit more strikeouts. He's also only four months older but has a hundred or so more AA PAs. I don't think there's enough playing time at Pawtucket to promote both, and if I had to choose only one to start there, I'd pick Shaw.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 20, 2013 11:23:31 GMT -5
I'm likely in the minority, but I think Shaw is still as good of a prospect as Almanzar (the website obviously disagrees-- Almanzar is ranked 26th while Shaw is languishing at 46; I think they should both be in the 30-40 range). Shaw plays better 1B defense, walks more, and shows more in-game power than Almanzar, albeit with a good bit more strikeouts. He's also only four months older but has a hundred or so more AA PAs. I don't think there's enough playing time at Pawtucket to promote both, and if I had to choose only one to start there, I'd pick Shaw. I currently have Shaw projected to play 1B in Portland and Almanzar ticketed to play 1B in Pawtucket. I agree with the scouting report you described but one omission is bat speed. Almanzar has better bat speed and seemed to be transitioning his power to in-game, at least early in the year. The biggest positive I took out of Shaw's AFL was Jim Callis' reporting that Shaw had three of the top 25 exit speeds on hits. Perhaps he is now generating better bat speed, combined with in-game power. If Shaw does not demonstrate better bat speed, he will continue to be exposed by good upper level pitching. I believe that the Shaw/Almanzar decision will come down to spring training. For their sakes, I hope they come ready to battle since, right now, I don't see either as major leaguers and, therefore, I could see the Red Sox picking up a AAAA first baseman to occupy the spot next year. I could also see one or both traded this offseason.
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