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Post by ramireja on Dec 15, 2022 13:08:32 GMT -5
That's kind of a sneaky graph. Boras is *slightly* better than, e.g., ACES, but they're still very close to the trendline, as is everyone else. They just have a ton more clients which makes it look like they're way off by themselves there. I'd disagree there. Once you realize just how close everyone else is to the trend line -- it looks like there is literally no-one else with white space above the line -- then you realize how impressive the space is between the Boras datapoint and the trend line. That doesn't even take into account that the trend line itself is skewed simply by the inclusion of the Boras datapoint. If you were to remove that datapoint, the trend line becomes flatter making the overall moral of the story even more impressive.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 15, 2022 13:23:38 GMT -5
That's kind of a sneaky graph. Boras is *slightly* better than, e.g., ACES, but they're still very close to the trendline, as is everyone else. They just have a ton more clients which makes it look like they're way off by themselves there. I'd disagree there. Once you realize just how close everyone else is to the trend line -- it looks like there is literally no-one else with white space above the line -- then you realize how impressive the space is between the Boras datapoint and the trend line. That doesn't even take into account that the trend line itself is skewed simply by the inclusion of the Boras datapoint. If you were to remove that datapoint, the trend line becomes flatter making the overall moral of the story even more impressive. The linked article is clearer than the graph alone about the scale of the difference here. And the article actually contextualizes the graph well; it's the tweet that's a bit misleading. Boras clients exceeded their zips projections by 12.6%. For ACES clients it was 9.3%. For Ballengee Group it was actually 31%, though that was with only 6 clients (Boras had 27).
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 15, 2022 13:32:39 GMT -5
Would be curious to know the average WAR projections of Boras guys compared to other agencies. My hunch is that the elite guys are more likely to get paid in an amount exceeding their expected value. Also there's probably at least a little selection bias here, most of the time players choose Boras explicitly to get paid the top amount, while other agencies may more frequently have guys with other priorities.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 15, 2022 13:39:02 GMT -5
The graph looks like ~2.2b in contracts vs ~1.45b projections
Then the article says 1.64b in contracts vs 1.41 projections
Not sure exactly what is going on with the discrepancy, but the article's figures are not actually that impressive to me. Small sample size and the selection bias scottysmalls mentioned.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 15, 2022 13:56:36 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 15, 2022 16:10:33 GMT -5
Adam Frazier to the O's, 1 year 8M, might be something like what Andrus is worth.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2022 16:38:43 GMT -5
Adam Frazier to the O's, 1 year 8M, might be something like what Andrus is worth. Wouldn't have hated Frazier for that deal if the idea is to throw Story to SS. Frazier could have made a solid enough platoon with Arroyo at 2nd, wouldn't have been flashy but could have gotten about average production at 2nd between the two with some upside.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 15, 2022 19:57:44 GMT -5
Yankees get Rodon
Let’s see that damage
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Post by levi on Dec 15, 2022 19:58:36 GMT -5
Yankees get Rodon Let’s see that damage
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 15, 2022 20:04:37 GMT -5
None of the 3 discussed Arizona outfielders really do it for me offensively. Thomas does the most because he’s made solid contact and should start tapping into his power, but he’s a ground ball hitter which I don’t love. McCarthy I think is just fools gold. Varsho is a defensive monster, but he’s looking like a very average hitter and would be very expensive.
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2022 20:09:05 GMT -5
I guess so much for my “no one else got getter” theory. That deal for Rodon is pricey but less than what was batted around. Obviously a health risk, but… pretty tough.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 15, 2022 20:12:25 GMT -5
The thing is….if Rodon is healthy the Yankees just got a lot better.
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 15, 2022 20:15:19 GMT -5
I guess so much for my “no one else got getter” theory. That deal for Rodon is pricey but less than what was batted around. Obviously a health risk, but… pretty tough. if any team has regression issues it’s the MFY though. Basically a .500 team in the second half. Cortes, Judge way outperformed. Losing Gallo and gaining Rodon are the only way they’ve gotten better. Stanton, Rizzo, Lemahieu, Judge, Donaldson, Trevino, Hicks…this isn’t a young club. Severino could potentially help them improve, but this division is still up for grabs (not for us with our current roster)
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 15, 2022 20:19:42 GMT -5
Rodon was #1 on my Do Not Want list.
Beyond that, it's good news to me if the Yankees want to make sketchy long term risks that ought to be pay off next year in a season where the Red Sox all already behind them and also well behind the Blue Jays too.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 15, 2022 20:20:51 GMT -5
The best part for me is the hit the Yankees take with their IFA pool. I feel like that's where they are more dangerous as opposed to their regular drafting.
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2022 20:24:10 GMT -5
The best part for me is the hit the Yankees take with their IFA pool. I feel like that's where they are more dangerous as opposed to their regular drafting. If by “best part” you mean absolutely tiniest bit of solace, I accept that.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2022 20:25:15 GMT -5
The thing is….if Rodon is healthy the Yankees just got a lot better. I mean their starting rotation already had the 3rd best ERA last year (3.31). If I were a Yankees fan I’m definitely not complaining about getting another ace… but like their lineup that wilted against elite pitching in the playoffs hasn’t changed at all lol But yeah, regular season-wise it’s hard to imagine them not getting to 95+ wins
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 15, 2022 20:28:22 GMT -5
The best part for me is the hit the Yankees take with their IFA pool. I feel like that's where they are more dangerous as opposed to their regular drafting. If by “best part” you mean absolutely tiniest bit of solace, I accept that. I can sleep easier at night knowing that *checks username* poster has accepted that.
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Post by worldbfree on Dec 15, 2022 20:30:19 GMT -5
The best part for me is the hit the Yankees take with their IFA pool. I feel like that's where they are more dangerous as opposed to their regular drafting. Funny that this is how we have to search for good news now. The Sox finished more than 20 games out of first and are far from contention next season, but at least the Yanks lose pool money.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 15, 2022 20:31:30 GMT -5
I really, really hope one of the big spenders this off-season wins the WS. Ideally, Mets or Padres vs Yankees WS with the Mets or Padres winning it all. Maybe then we can start agreeing again, buying players isn't terrible.
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 15, 2022 20:32:24 GMT -5
The thing is….if Rodon is healthy the Yankees just got a lot better. I mean their starting rotation already had the 3rd best ERA last year (3.31). If I were a Yankees fan I’m definitely not complaining about getting another ace… but like their lineup that wilted against elite pitching in the playoffs hasn’t changed at all lol But yeah, regular season-wise it’s hard to imagine them not getting to 95+ wins I mean they just picked up 3 WAR going from Taillon to Rodon IF Rodon is just as good/healthy as last year. It’s not like us going from Franchy to Yoshida lol. Their X-factor is more Severino than anything imo. You’re totally right, if we get one more competent bat, even we could score more runs than the MFY lol
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 15, 2022 20:36:42 GMT -5
Signing Rodon was my drunk idea the other night so perhaps that means this is a good thing?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 15, 2022 20:37:27 GMT -5
I mean their starting rotation already had the 3rd best ERA last year (3.31). If I were a Yankees fan I’m definitely not complaining about getting another ace… but like their lineup that wilted against elite pitching in the playoffs hasn’t changed at all lol But yeah, regular season-wise it’s hard to imagine them not getting to 95+ wins I mean they just picked up 3 WAR going from Taillon to Rodon IF Rodon is just as good/healthy as last year. It’s not like us going from Franchy to Yoshida lol. Their X-factor is more Severino than anything imo. You’re totally right, if we get one more competent bat, even we could score more runs than the MFY lol Really need some big time regression from Nestor
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 15, 2022 21:15:19 GMT -5
Health is always the thing with Rodon, something you can say about just about any free agent pitcher - even those who aren't.
There's a chance that he gives them a lot of time on the IL and the Yankees spent a lot of money on a guy at home on the IL. The last two years he's been damn good and mostly healthy and if he's reasonably healthy , it would be foolish to deny that he obviously makes the Yankees pitching a lot better. Cole and Rodon are a pretty damn 1-2 punch, certainly better than whatever the Sox have atop the rotation unless Sale suddenly after 5 years reverts to vintage Sale.
So the Yankees retained their franchise player and added one of the top starters. They still have holes in the rest of their lineup, Judge is not likely to produce to that level and the pen still has questions after Holmes and King had injuries, but they've gotten better this winter as I was never a big fan of Taillon.
I guess this would leave Swanson as the last big ticket item left, kind of like how Story was the last one left - so maybe this is where Bloom strikes. Because after Swanson goes (and this isn't even me really wanting him) it is bargain basement/dumpster diving time, with the rotation not improved and the lineup still with holes in it, particularly from the right side of the plate.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2022 21:35:16 GMT -5
I guess this would leave Swanson as the last big ticket item left, kind of like how Story was the last one left - so maybe this is where Bloom strikes. Because after Swanson goes (and this isn't even me really wanting him) it is bargain basement/dumpster diving time, with the rotation not improved and the lineup still with holes in it, particularly from the right side of the plate. I’m curious what his market is at this point. The Cubs seem antsy to give out a mega deal, the Dodgers have a CBT reset in their sights, no idea if Minnesota wants to go big. Swanson just doesn’t have the same track record as Bogey, Turner and Correa. Maybe he just goes back to the Braves if they can clear some money?
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