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2022-2023 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 15, 2022 21:48:02 GMT -5
I guess this would leave Swanson as the last big ticket item left, kind of like how Story was the last one left - so maybe this is where Bloom strikes. Because after Swanson goes (and this isn't even me really wanting him) it is bargain basement/dumpster diving time, with the rotation not improved and the lineup still with holes in it, particularly from the right side of the plate. I’m curious what his market is at this point. The Cubs seem antsy to give out a mega deal, the Dodgers have a CBT reset in their sights, no idea if Minnesota wants to go big. Swanson just doesn’t have the same track record as Bogey, Turner and Correa. Maybe he just goes back to the Braves if they can clear some money? I don't think the Braves want him back. They have a young top rated prospect named Grissom who played really went for them at 2b when Albies went down. They're going to shift Grissom to SS. I think the Cubs clearly want a SS and is probably the team most likely to do battle if the Sox want him. I think the Dodgers would take him on a short-term high AAV type deal. But this year why would a free agent settle for that when long term deals are out there to be had? The Twins from reports I read were willing to spend somewhere near 280 million to retain Correa so they certainly have 200 million available for Swanson if they want to offer that. The Giants had 360 million set aside for Judge so it wasn't really surprising they had 350 million sitting there for Correa. Likewise the Padres had about 400 million set aside for Judge and then when he didn't take it they had about 300 million set aside for Trea Turner and when he didn't take it, they found a player whose team didn't make proper extension attempts to keep him so he pounced on 280 million from San Diego. So I think the money is there for Swanson. I could imagine Bloom thinking that Swanson is kind of similar to Story and his last chance to replace Xander with quality better than patchwork - and of course we don't know if Story can play SS or not. So I can see the Sox being in this although I can't imagine Bloom wants to give him the 7 or 8 years I'd guess it would take him to sign, especially if he is ready to bank on Mayer at SS in a few years....not unless he figures Swanson is their future 3b if they lose Devers sort of the way Story was slated to play SS should Xander leave, which may or may not happen. That's why I suggested opt outs. I don't think Swanson's future offensive performance several years down the road will hold up as a 3b. The Cubs situation is less complicated. They just want a SS. I don't think they're worried about years down the road. And I think they have money to spend. Then again so do the Red Sox. It's so bad I'm not sure what to root for. I'd take Swanson for the short term, but wouldn't want him for most of the next decade. He's good, but he's not THAT good.
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Post by redsox3in10 on Dec 15, 2022 22:19:51 GMT -5
Rodon to the MFYs ...
I still hate them and remember it every day.
Hope his arm blows up two innings into his Yankees experience.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 15, 2022 22:43:44 GMT -5
MLB Network is reporting it's six years, $162M for Rodon. In case anyone's keeping track that gives the MFYs:
Rodon, age 30, $27M AAV through 2028. He's made 30 starts once in his career; Cole, age 32, $36M AAV through 2028. He's coming off a 2.4 B-Ref WAR, 3.3 FG WAR season and has a very punchable face; Stanton, age 33, $25M AAV through 2027. He's coming off a .7 B-Ref WAR season in which he posted a 113 OPS-plus; Judge, age 30, $40M AAV through 2031.
That's $128M in AAV. They better win in the next three years or so because after that those contracts are a cumulative burden. Stanton's is probably already there and Cole's might be getting close.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 15, 2022 22:55:22 GMT -5
I guess this would leave Swanson as the last big ticket item left, kind of like how Story was the last one left - so maybe this is where Bloom strikes. Because after Swanson goes (and this isn't even me really wanting him) it is bargain basement/dumpster diving time, with the rotation not improved and the lineup still with holes in it, particularly from the right side of the plate. I’m curious what his market is at this point. The Cubs seem antsy to give out a mega deal, the Dodgers have a CBT reset in their sights, no idea if Minnesota wants to go big. Swanson just doesn’t have the same track record as Bogey, Turner and Correa. Maybe he just goes back to the Braves if they can clear some money? Honestly, I'm thinking he's going to get a 3-5 year deal which is what I think Boston is holding out hope for. Then he'll be "the perfect bridge to Mayer" and then proceed to have a very similar year that Story just had.
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Post by rico6 on Dec 15, 2022 22:55:28 GMT -5
MLB Network is reporting it's six years, $162M for Rodon. In case anyone's keeping track that gives the MFYs: Rodon, age 30, $27M AAV through 2028. He's made 30 starts once in his career; Cole, age 32, $36M AAV through 2028. He's coming off a 2.4 B-Ref WAR, 3.3 FG WAR season and has a very punchable face; Stanton, age 33, $25M AAV through 2027. He's coming off a .7 B-Ref WAR season in which he posted a 113 OPS-plus; Judge, age 30, $40M AAV through 2031. That's $128M in AAV. They better win in the next three years or so because after that those contracts are a cumulative burden. Stanton's is probably already there and Cole's might be getting close. They are trying to find takers for Donaldson and Hicks contracts. In three years or so, they'll be looking to move more contracts.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 15, 2022 22:56:46 GMT -5
The Yankees have been in "the Yankees better win now or else those contracts will look BAD" for 25 years and there was like a two-year stretch where that actually happened. The rest of the time they've been able to win because some of the contracts worked out really well and the other ones didn't matter because any high-payroll team can stomach bad contracts. Pablo Sandoval was arguably the worst free agent signing in baseball history, never mind Red Sox history, and they won a Series and formed the greatest team of the 21st Century with him on the books.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 16, 2022 0:42:04 GMT -5
Rodon to the MFYs ... I still hate them and remember it every day. Hope his arm blows up two innings into his Yankees experience. In the last 6 years, in his age 24-29 seasons, Rodon averaged 18 starts. I don't think I'd bet $162m that he'll almost double that in his age 30-35 seasons.
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Post by redsox3in10 on Dec 16, 2022 1:14:00 GMT -5
Rodon to the MFYs ... I still hate them and remember it every day. Hope his arm blows up two innings into his Yankees experience. In the last 6 years, in his age 24-29 seasons, Rodon averaged 18 starts. I don't think I'd bet $162m that he'll almost double that in his age 30-35 seasons. I'm still going to pull for the shoulder explosion. I suspect you are right, but just in case you aren't.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 16, 2022 4:10:38 GMT -5
In the last 6 years, in his age 24-29 seasons, Rodon averaged 18 starts. I don't think I'd bet $162m that he'll almost double that in his age 30-35 seasons. I'm still going to pull for the shoulder explosion. I suspect you are right, but just in case you aren't. IMHO it’s not a good thing to wish injury (perhaps career ending) to others. In particular to players on a baseballl thread. Most of us here had suffered from sports injuries. I wish him well, but of course not the nyfy. Peace, love, joy and health to you and yours.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 16, 2022 4:55:22 GMT -5
I'm still going to pull for the shoulder explosion. I suspect you are right, but just in case you aren't. IMHO it’s not a good thing to wish injury (perhaps career ending) to others. In particular to players on a baseballl thread. Most of us here had suffered from sports injuries. I wish him well, but of course not the nyfy. Peace, love, joy and health to you and yours. I 2nd this, I mean rodon is a human who to my knowledge has never done anything to deserve one to wish bodily harm on him. I hope he goes out and stinks for the yankees and that it ends up being a bad deal but under no circumstances am I rooting for any injury to him or any other Yankee for that matter.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 16, 2022 8:14:14 GMT -5
Rodon to the MFYs ... I still hate them and remember it every day. Hope his arm blows up two innings into his Yankees experience. In the last 6 years, in his age 24-29 seasons, Rodon averaged 18 starts. I don't think I'd bet $162m that he'll almost double that in his age 30-35 seasons. Random observation/thought - what Rodon was valued at, in this market, based on this signing, is about what Sox thought X's value was to them, in same market, their reported offer, near about same length and dollar amount?
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 16, 2022 11:02:00 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2022 11:35:00 GMT -5
The Yankees have been in "the Yankees better win now or else those contracts will look BAD" for 25 years and there was like a two-year stretch where that actually happened. The rest of the time they've been able to win because some of the contracts worked out really well and the other ones didn't matter because any high-payroll team can stomach bad contracts. Pablo Sandoval was arguably the worst free agent signing in baseball history, never mind Red Sox history, and they won a Series and formed the greatest team of the 21st Century with him on the books. It's amazing what good GMs can do. Since 1998 Brian Cashman has been doing his thing.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 16, 2022 12:02:50 GMT -5
The Yankees have been in "the Yankees better win now or else those contracts will look BAD" for 25 years and there was like a two-year stretch where that actually happened. The rest of the time they've been able to win because some of the contracts worked out really well and the other ones didn't matter because any high-payroll team can stomach bad contracts. Pablo Sandoval was arguably the worst free agent signing in baseball history, never mind Red Sox history, and they won a Series and formed the greatest team of the 21st Century with him on the books. It's amazing what good GMs can do. Since 1998 Brian Cashman has been doing his thing. Careful. I got blown up for calling him a good GM.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 16, 2022 12:56:30 GMT -5
The Yankees have been in "the Yankees better win now or else those contracts will look BAD" for 25 years and there was like a two-year stretch where that actually happened. The rest of the time they've been able to win because some of the contracts worked out really well and the other ones didn't matter because any high-payroll team can stomach bad contracts. Pablo Sandoval was arguably the worst free agent signing in baseball history, never mind Red Sox history, and they won a Series and formed the greatest team of the 21st Century with him on the books. It's amazing what good GMs can do. Since 1998 Brian Cashman has been doing his thing. I agree that Cashman is a good GM. Worth noting though that from '99 through 2013 though they had the biggest payroll in the Majors by a huge amount, spending collectively $580M more than if you added the second place teams for all those years (much more than that if you compare to the second biggest spending team). That's $41M a year on average, at a time when that was even more meaningful than it is now. So that helps. Of course they've also been successful since 2013 and again I agree Cashman does a good job generally.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 16, 2022 13:03:26 GMT -5
The Yankees have been in "the Yankees better win now or else those contracts will look BAD" for 25 years and there was like a two-year stretch where that actually happened. The rest of the time they've been able to win because some of the contracts worked out really well and the other ones didn't matter because any high-payroll team can stomach bad contracts. Pablo Sandoval was arguably the worst free agent signing in baseball history, never mind Red Sox history, and they won a Series and formed the greatest team of the 21st Century with him on the books. This is exactly what people want to hear right now, but it doesn't pass the sniff test. I only have data back to 2000, but the Yankees led the majors in spending every year from 2000-2013, and usually by a ludicrous margin. They also only finished with fewer than 94 wins three times over this 14-year period, including 10 division titles. From 2014-2022, when their spending advantage over the rest of the league was much less pronounced, they finished with fewer than 94 wins all but three seasons and only won two division titles.
2000: $93 million payroll, $5 million more than the next closest team, no luxury tax threshold
2001: $110 million payroll, <$1 million more, no LT
2002: $126 million payroll, $18 million more, no LT
2003: $153 million payroll, $36 million more, $36 million over LT, only team over LT
2004: $182 million payroll, $57 million more, $61 million over LT
2005: $206 million payroll, $85 million more, $78 million over LT, only team over LT
2006: $195 million payroll, $75 million more, $58 million over LT, only team over LT
2007: $190 million payroll, $47 million more, $42 million over LT, only team over LT
2008: $209 million payroll, $71 million more, $54 million over LT, only team over LT
2009: $201 million payroll, $65 million more, $39 million over LT, only team over LT
2010: $206 million payroll, $43 million more, $36 million over LT, only team over LT
2011: $202 million payroll, $30 million more, $24 million over LT, only team over LT
2012: $200 million payroll, $26 million more, $22 million over LT, only team over LT
2013: $229 million payroll, $13 million more, $49 million over LT
2014: $204 million payroll, $31 million less, $15 million over LT
2015: $219 million payroll, $54 million less, $30 million over LT
2016: $228 million payroll, $26 million less, $39 million over LT
2017: $202 million payroll, $40 million less, $7 million over LT
2018: $169 million payroll, $67 million less, $28 million under LT 2019: $206 million payroll, $7 million less, <$1 million over LT (lmao)
2020*: $111 million payroll, $5 million more, $34 million over LT
2021: $191 million payroll, $44 million less, $19 million under LT
2022: $253 million payroll, $18 million less, $23 million over LT
*60 game season. LT figure assumes a 60 game pro-rated luxury tax threshold, which may not be correct.
It's not that the Yankees are willing to do whatever it takes to sign top FAs (read: accept albatrosses). It's that they have historically spent so much more than every other team that they need multiple painful albatrosses to even be on the same playing field as everyone else. Since 2000, the Yankees have paid more money in luxury tax penalties than the rest of the league put together. You may as well point to Steve Cohen's spending in 2022 as an indication that "high-payroll teams" can sign whoever they'd like without consequence. In that specific case, absolutely. For any team that makes spending decisions based on the luxury tax, though, which for better or for worse is 29/30 teams, including Boston and NYY, bad contracts will directly harm the team on the field. It may still be good enough to at least compete - depends how much dead money, and how much trade results, player development, international signings, etc. can pick up the slack.
As for Sandoval, if you have a team with cost-controlled core of Betts, Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and JBJ, you can afford a mid-tier albatross for a guy like Pablo Sandoval. That does not mean that risky megadeals are all of a sudden a good idea, harmless, etc. Look no further than the Bloom era if you'd like to see the impact of terrible FA deals that can't be offset by massive surplus value from cost-controlled guys.
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Post by manfred on Dec 16, 2022 14:21:45 GMT -5
A’s sign Trevor May. He is actually a worthy reclamation project.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 16, 2022 14:26:48 GMT -5
A’s sign Trevor May. He is actually a worthy reclamation project. Yep, could be a shrewd signing for the A's. Certainly nothing to lose for them anyway. His velocity is still solid, his K% and walk rate were both pretty solid. In that park if he can keep his Ks up and walks down his results should end up looking pretty good and he should have a pretty good shot of being a viable trade deadline piece for them.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 16, 2022 14:49:50 GMT -5
A’s sign Trevor May. He is actually a worthy reclamation project. Yep, could be a shrewd signing for the A's. Certainly nothing to lose for them anyway. His velocity is still solid, his K% and walk rate were both pretty solid. In that park if he can keep his Ks up and walks down his results should end up looking pretty good and he should have a pretty good shot of being a viable trade deadline piece for them. And if you're an xERA fan there might not even be any reclaiming to do; he's been between 2.99 and 4.08 his whole career. Last year he was at 3.64, which was his highest since the 4.08 year in 2016.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 16, 2022 15:32:49 GMT -5
He's not exactly getting paid like a reclamation project $7M this year is more than Chris Martin is making and he's coming off a much better and not injury-plagued year. Martin got two years to the one, but still. The May deal is fine but I'm not sure there's a ton of value upside to be had.
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Post by radiohix on Dec 16, 2022 16:13:59 GMT -5
A move I would’ve liked.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 16, 2022 16:16:14 GMT -5
I wouldn’t have minded that deal either, however I will say this- I’m not so certain Gallo wanted to throw himself back under the microscope given his Yankee experience
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 16, 2022 16:19:30 GMT -5
Andrew Benintendi to White Sox for 5 years 75 million.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 16, 2022 16:34:12 GMT -5
Andrew Benintendi to White Sox for 5 years 75 million. Looking forward to May 1 when Benintendi has 10 more hits than Yoshida and we all have decided that we should have signed him instead. EDIT: Interesting side note, this is the biggest contract in White Sox history.
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Post by manfred on Dec 16, 2022 16:42:14 GMT -5
Andrew Benintendi to White Sox for 5 years 75 million. Looking forward to May 1 when Benintendi has 10 more hits than Yoshida and we all have decided that we should have signed him instead. EDIT: Interesting side note, this is the biggest contract in White Sox history. What if someone simply said man that was a lot of motion over a few years to end up back where you were? But I don’t think it’ll happen. I’m optimistic Yoshida will hit better than Beni.
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