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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 16, 2022 11:53:37 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 16, 2022 11:54:17 GMT -5
Alex Speier/BA released top 10 rankings ( link): 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Rafaela 4. Bleis 5. Romero 6. Yorke 7. Mata 8. Anthony 9. Walter 10. Paulino Same ten as SP, although in slightly different order. Speier is doing a chat at 3pm for those interested. |
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Post by joshuacoffee on Nov 16, 2022 16:04:01 GMT -5
The Speier vs SP lists make sense. SP tends to (understandably) prefer players that they have seen more of, so Romero and Anthony get bumped down a little. Also, Chris and Ian have been preaching caution on Rafaela's hit tool.
I do think there is a clear tier gap after 10, so I'm guessing a lot of offseason top 10 lists include the same 10 players in various orders.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 16, 2022 17:10:23 GMT -5
Fwiw, Paulino is 11 in the current draft of the EOS ranking...
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 16, 2022 18:28:29 GMT -5
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Post by stunzisox on Nov 16, 2022 22:05:31 GMT -5
Fwiw, Paulino is 11 in the current draft of the EOS ranking... …curious Who leapfrogs into the top 10? Murphy? Valdez? Blaze? Or my binky pick Perales… |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 1, 2023 11:00:43 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 18, 2023 9:03:41 GMT -5
New BA Top 100 prospects list: 10. Mayer 29. Casas 71. Rafaela 87. Yoshida* 88. Bleis *Need one more outlet (ESPN or MLB Pipeline) to add Yoshida to their top 100 so he can qualify for the draft pick compensation if he wins Rookie of the Year. www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2023-top-100-prospects/ |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 18, 2023 9:10:35 GMT -5
New BA Top 100 prospects list: 10. Mayer 29. Casas 71. Rafaela 87. Yoshida* 88. Bleis Need one more outlet (ESPN or MLB Pipeline) to add Yoshida to their top 100 so he can qualify for the draft pick compensation. I'm going to predict Bleis makes a big jump this year and Rafaela continues to ascend a bit and the Sox end up with three in the top 50 by the end of the season in Mayer/Rafaela/Bleis. Not half bad to have five in the top 100 going into the season or I'd more or less consider it four since Yoshida is hard to count as a prospect in my mind. Also in regards to Yoshida, that seems a tad low if you ask me. I know his ceiling isn't going to be as high as the top of the line prospects but I would have figured his floor and proximity to the majors would have bumped him up a bit. Splitting hairs though I suppose and it doesn't really matter all that much either way. |
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 9:15:19 GMT -5
Honest question: if you're going to rank Yoshida, how does he not rank higher? Are there really 86 prospects who are more valuable than him? If you were to ask me who I'd rather keep in the organization, Rafaela or Yoshida, it's Yoshida all the way (even with the uncertainties around transition from NPB to MLB, his age, etc.). My other rule of thumb is, if all these guys were made free agents, who would get the larger contract, and I find it hard to believe that there are 86 prospects who'd get more than 5/$90M (even ignoring the posting fee for these purposes). Maybe they're taking his contract into account, but this is a prospect ranking list, not a trade value list, and I believe they once ranked Daisuke as the #1 prospect in baseball, so wouldn't have expected that to be the case.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 18, 2023 13:09:52 GMT -5
Honest question: if you're going to rank Yoshida, how does he not rank higher? Are there really 86 prospects who are more valuable than him? If you were to ask me who I'd rather keep in the organization, Rafaela or Yoshida, it's Yoshida all the way (even with the uncertainties around transition from NPB to MLB, his age, etc.). My other rule of thumb is, if all these guys were made free agents, who would get the larger contract, and I find it hard to believe that there are 86 prospects who'd get more than 5/$90M (even ignoring the posting fee for these purposes). Maybe they're taking his contract into account, but this is a prospect ranking list, not a trade value list, and I believe they once ranked Daisuke as the #1 prospect in baseball, so wouldn't have expected that to be the case. Matsuzaka was widely considered the best non-MLB player in the world. Yoshida was not well liked by among the commercial scouting community with some sites grading him as being less than an MLB starter. Keep in mind he was projected to make about half of what he's making. The Red Sox clearly disagree, but I wouldn't trust a site/publication that padded its ranking purely due to a contract or signing bonus. Imagine if the 47th ranked international amateur prospect received a 5.7mil bonus and everyone changed their rankings to make him the #1 signing based upon that - it wouldn't make sense. Let's just hope the Red Sox are right. |
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Post by Guidas on Jan 18, 2023 13:14:42 GMT -5
Honest question: if you're going to rank Yoshida, how does he not rank higher? Are there really 86 prospects who are more valuable than him? If you were to ask me who I'd rather keep in the organization, Rafaela or Yoshida, it's Yoshida all the way (even with the uncertainties around transition from NPB to MLB, his age, etc.). My other rule of thumb is, if all these guys were made free agents, who would get the larger contract, and I find it hard to believe that there are 86 prospects who'd get more than 5/$90M (even ignoring the posting fee for these purposes). Maybe they're taking his contract into account, but this is a prospect ranking list, not a trade value list, and I believe they once ranked Daisuke as the #1 prospect in baseball, so wouldn't have expected that to be the case. Matsuzaka was widely considered the best non-MLB player in the world. Yoshida was not well liked by among the commercial scouting community with some sites grading him as being less than an MLB starter. Keep in mind he was projected to make about half of what he's making. The Red Sox clearly disagree, but I wouldn't trust a site/publication that padded its ranking purely due to a contract or signing bonus. Imagine if the 47th ranked international amateur prospect received a 5.7mil bonus and everyone changed their rankings to make him the #1 signing based upon that - it wouldn't make sense. Let's just hope the Red Sox are right. Just seems odd to rank any guy who is 29 and has been playing organized baseball at a very high level for several years as a "prospect." Rookie sure, but he's not a prospect in the traditional sense. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 18, 2023 13:29:35 GMT -5
Where would Bello sit if he was still considered a prospect. 25 range??
Also who if the most likely to enter the top 100 during the season? Yorke if he is hitting?
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2023 13:30:49 GMT -5
Honest question: if you're going to rank Yoshida, how does he not rank higher? Are there really 86 prospects who are more valuable than him? If you were to ask me who I'd rather keep in the organization, Rafaela or Yoshida, it's Yoshida all the way (even with the uncertainties around transition from NPB to MLB, his age, etc.). My other rule of thumb is, if all these guys were made free agents, who would get the larger contract, and I find it hard to believe that there are 86 prospects who'd get more than 5/$90M (even ignoring the posting fee for these purposes). Maybe they're taking his contract into account, but this is a prospect ranking list, not a trade value list, and I believe they once ranked Daisuke as the #1 prospect in baseball, so wouldn't have expected that to be the case. I think the honest answer is that they're trying to accommodate two incompatible senses of the term 'prospect':
A) player who projects to be a valuable contributor at the MLB level but has not yet played in MLB B) player who is still in the midst of the development process who is therefore being evaluated based on projection of future development
Yoshida is a "prospect" is sense A but not sense B, so they're splitting the difference by ranking him, but placing him lower than sheer talent/projected performance would justify. You could argue that should just pick either A or B as their criterion and let the chips fall where they may; splitting the difference does seem a little incoherent.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2023 14:19:28 GMT -5
Where would Bello sit if he was still considered a prospect. 25 range?? Also who if the most likely to enter the top 100 during the season? Yorke if he is hitting? BA had him 23rd at the time he graduated, so that’s a safe assumption. |
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vmoss
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Post by vmoss on Jan 18, 2023 19:52:48 GMT -5
New BA Top 100 prospects list: 10. Mayer 29. Casas 71. Rafaela 87. Yoshida* 88. Bleis *Need one more outlet (ESPN or MLB Pipeline) to add Yoshida to their top 100 so he can qualify for the draft pick compensation if he wins Rookie of the Year. www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2023-top-100-prospects/When are the other 2 list due out? How likely is he to be top 100? What is the reward for ROY (how high a picK) and how likely? Thanks. |
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Post by Jimmy on Jan 18, 2023 21:55:04 GMT -5
I’m not so sure about this - there’s language in the PPI rule about “before player is eligible for arbitration.” So since he will never be eligible for arbitration - is that technically “before”? Or does it make him ineligible for PPI program? |
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Post by bosox904 on Jan 18, 2023 21:58:44 GMT -5
I wouldn't get to excited as neither pipeline or ESPN ranked Suzuki last year.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 18, 2023 22:57:52 GMT -5
I’m not so sure about this - there’s language in the PPI rule about “before player is eligible for arbitration.” So since he will never be eligible for arbitration - is that technically “before”? Or does it make him ineligible for PPI program? Interesting - it's reported in some places that way, and not in others. Would be helpful if we actually had the text of the new CBA... |
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Post by runner on Jan 18, 2023 23:09:23 GMT -5
Yeah I had no clue Yoshida would be ranked. Quite exciting.
He's the best chance the Sox got to getting a rookie to win rookie of the year. No offense to Casas, but Yoshida is way better right now with the bat or he should be. He plays a more valuable position also.
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Post by Jimmy on Jan 18, 2023 23:30:03 GMT -5
Yeah I had no clue Yoshida would be ranked. Quite exciting. He's the best chance the Sox got to getting a rookie to win rookie of the year. No offense to Casas, but Yoshida is way better right now with the bat or he should be. He plays a more valuable position also. I’d bet on Casas for the bats upside and the defensive floor. Yoshida would really have to rake to win it. Also… is Bello still eligible? |
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 19, 2023 6:46:33 GMT -5
That’s more like it. In my mind it’s 4. One other publication had only 3. Which bothered me.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jan 19, 2023 7:33:12 GMT -5
Nick Yorke revenge tour is going to be glorious.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 19, 2023 10:11:00 GMT -5
Yeah I had no clue Yoshida would be ranked. Quite exciting. He's the best chance the Sox got to getting a rookie to win rookie of the year. No offense to Casas, but Yoshida is way better right now with the bat or he should be. He plays a more valuable position also. I’d bet on Casas for the bats upside and the defensive floor. Yoshida would really have to rake to win it. Also… is Bello still eligible? Bello exhausted his rookie status last year, which is why he's no longer ranked. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 19, 2023 12:31:50 GMT -5
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