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2022-2023 National Rankings (offseason)
nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2023 11:46:45 GMT -5
I’m kind of in Law’s boat with regards to Yorke. While I understand he was dealing with injuries, I think it’s fair to be pretty discouraged by a bat first 2B who didn’t hit or make consistent contact. If he has another year like 2022, his prospect status will be toast. Hopefully the AFL stint was a sign of a bounce back, but only time will tell.
I like Law’s sleeper pick of Paulino. We’re lucky that he spent all of 2022 in A ball, because I think he would have been taken in the rule 5 if he were any closer to the majors. I think he’s a 50s across the board sum of all parts guy, and with his versatility that is potentially valuable. I’d like to get a look at his exit velocity and advanced stats.
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Post by Edward Hand on Feb 7, 2023 11:49:22 GMT -5
Not sure if impressed or not by the sheer audacity of putting Jiminez at #16 while not including Perales.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 7, 2023 11:56:19 GMT -5
Not sure if impressed or not by the sheer audacity of putting Jiminez at #16 while not including Perales. I swear to God he copied and pasted last years and half assed some edits. How does he only drop Jimenez 4 spots? His 2022 rankings were pretty ridiculous as well. Also, "Nico".
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 7, 2023 12:16:01 GMT -5
Not sure if impressed or not by the sheer audacity of putting Jiminez at #16 while not including Perales. He mentioned Perales, and the general reasoning for being a little more hesitant to rank him highly is pretty understandable. Jimenez at 16 isn't that great, but whatever. I don't really like Law all that much, and I certainly disagree with some of his work, but I feel like people need to be a little less sensationalist about where prospects that 95% of us have never seen in person are arbitrarily ranked by one dude because it doesn't align with Soxprospects. I love the SP staff, I think Chris and Ian and everyone else do great work and I think they're clearly the pre-eminent authority on the system outside of the team itself, but there is 1000% a groupthink issue when it comes to this board's typical response to generalist outlets' perceptions of the system. It's fair to say that due to the nature of their job it isn't going to be as in the weeds as some of the SP work, but I generally think that calling the work "half-assed" or pointing out the "audacity" of a ranking because you don't agree with it is pretty foolish. Different people value different things, different outlets will get different looks at a player, and ultimately a lot of these outlets' rankings are based off of feedback from professional scouts. It's fine for their to not be a consensus. Like I said, I disagree with Law sometimes and I disagreed with him a lot in these rankings, but for the most part his reasonings were at least sound enough to where I was fine shrugging my shoulders and moving on, and truthfully unless people are going to be insightful discussion around his rankings (meaning, not this post I'm quoting), then I think everyone would be better suited if they were capable of just moving on sometimes, too.
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Post by Edward Hand on Feb 7, 2023 12:57:58 GMT -5
Not sure if impressed or not by the sheer audacity of putting Jiminez at #16 while not including Perales. He mentioned Perales, and the general reasoning for being a little more hesitant to rank him highly is pretty understandable. Jimenez at 16 isn't that great, but whatever. I don't really like Law all that much, and I certainly disagree with some of his work, but I feel like people need to be a little less sensationalist about where prospects that 95% of us have never seen in person are arbitrarily ranked by one dude because it doesn't align with Soxprospects. I love the SP staff, I think Chris and Ian and everyone else do great work and I think they're clearly the pre-eminent authority on the system outside of the team itself, but there is 1000% a groupthink issue when it comes to this board's typical response to generalist outlets' perceptions of the system. It's fair to say that due to the nature of their job it isn't going to be as in the weeds as some of the SP work, but I generally think that calling the work "half-assed" or pointing out the "audacity" of a ranking because you don't agree with it is pretty foolish. Different people value different things, different outlets will get different looks at a player, and ultimately a lot of these outlets' rankings are based off of feedback from professional scouts. It's fine for their to not be a consensus. Like I said, I disagree with Law sometimes and I disagreed with him a lot in these rankings, but for the most part his reasonings were at least sound enough to where I was fine shrugging my shoulders and moving on, and truthfully unless people are going to be insightful discussion around his rankings (meaning, not this post I'm quoting), then I think everyone would be better suited if they were capable of just moving on sometimes, too. I'm not seeing Jimenez on any other top 20s. It stood out like a sore thumb, probably by design. This is a thread for talking about this stuff, and that was my takeaway from the list. Agree with it or not, its a ballsy take. I think "audacity" is a perfectly appropriate description.
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 7, 2023 13:09:39 GMT -5
I've long actually liked Keith Law's work, but the last couple of years (potentially aligned with Covid) I think the quality of work/insight has dropped off. It can't be an easy job to be somewhat knowledgeable on 30 systems with 100's of prospects each. Let alone doing it for 15+ years.
Maybe he's not going to as many games, talking to fewer people, or putting less time and energy into these team specific lists. His top 100 list was reasonable and had a lot of good nuggets on players. Glean what you can from these lists and treat them as the conversation fodder that they are.
That said... Perales should be in a top 20 somewhere.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 7, 2023 13:54:17 GMT -5
If you want to try and make sense of it:
Law had the Red Sox top-4 rated higher (cumulatively) than any other publication. He also had the system ranked lower than any other publication.
So not moving GJimenez down further is less about him and more that Law thinks the other prospects are complete crap - they would have to be given his perceived top-heavy system valuation.
Of course, Law being asleep at the wheel still seems a bit more likely.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2023 14:09:40 GMT -5
The write up for Jimenez is actually kind of funny when you think about what he’s saying.
Here’s the must-read Nomar paraphrasing:
Jimenez has a rocking body that can run really fast and throws things hard. He gets up to the plate and doesn’t think about what he’s doing, and even when he does make contact, it isn’t pretty. Still, look at that physique! I only like 15 players more than him.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 7, 2023 14:21:48 GMT -5
Folks - it's Jimenez.
Thought it was weird that Law referenced Cam Cannon, who hasn't been a legit prospect in a few years and isn't even in the organization anymore.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 7, 2023 14:24:16 GMT -5
If you want to try and make sense of it: Law had the Red Sox top-4 rated higher (cumulatively) than any other publication. He also had the system ranked lower than any other publication. So not moving Gimenez down further is less about him and more that Law thinks the other prospects are complete crap - they would have to be given his perceived top-heavy system valuation.Of course, Law being asleep at the wheel still seems a bit more likely. I mean, in the comments he called Valdez an "org guy" so yeah, this seems like a rational conclusion.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 7, 2023 14:26:33 GMT -5
Folks - it's Jimenez. Thought it was weird that Law referenced Cam Cannon, who hasn't been a legit prospect in a few years and isn't even in the organization anymore. I thought that was odd too, but I looked at a few of his other articles for different teams' lists and it seems like it was pretty random for everyone. Just a guy that may have once been highly thought of that "officially" is an afterthought. I don't *think* it's someone he had ranked last year that fell out, but I could be wrong on that. Would be pretty funny if he had Cannon in his top 20 last year.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 7, 2023 15:01:18 GMT -5
He also completely dismissed Yorke's injuries as too minor to explain his drop in production, not even acknowledging that his best stretch - in the AFL - came when he was at his healthiest. That combined with Jimenez being ranked at all means I'm pretty much going to ignore Law's scouting on every team. If I don't buy it for the system I know best, there's no reason to accept it for the systems I don't know about. I have read that stats in AFL are about as useful as spring training stats. Apparently, it's all about reps and seeing some different competition but not very predictive or even indicative of increases or declines in ability. Or, more succinctly: Small sample.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 7, 2023 15:24:09 GMT -5
I don't know how any one human being can be informed about the top X prospects in every team's farm system, and so what his rankings are most useful for are not the numerical rankings but the handful of tidbits in the commentary that are sourced from either personal looks or scouts. (Sort of how like the price targets in sell-side analyst reports are not very useful, but you should read them for the analysis/commentary.) Speaking of tidbits, in his recent podcast with Darren Van Riper, Law referred to any prospect he projects as a "star" as having multiple years of at least 5+ WAR. In the Sox case that's Mayer and Rafaela, at least by this write-up. Sounds like Casas just misses that classification. He also mentioned Yorke by name in another podcast, saying his only tool is his hit tool as he is substandard in every other area. As a result, in Law's mind (for what that's worth), that hit tool has to be so good, it carries him to the majors. Also of note but not Sox-related. In the top 100 podcast, he said Elly De La Cruz in the CIN system has 80 power and 80 speed (and a 70 arm!) which, if he grew up in the U.S. would probably have had him gravitating toward football. He said the 80 power and 80 speed are rare enough on their own in a baseball player, but the combination is basically, well, Mike Trout was 70/70 in the same categories, so pretty damn rare. Apparently the only thing keeping him from realizing all his potential right now is being a bit over aggressive at the plate. Then again, that "over- aggressiveness" had him at .305/.357/.553 wOBA .393 in 207 AA PAs as a 20 year-old this year. If the Sox had a guy that good right now we'd all have punched his ticket for the HOF. Could be a fun guy to watch going forward.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 7, 2023 15:39:56 GMT -5
If you want to try and make sense of it: Law had the Red Sox top-4 rated higher (cumulatively) than any other publication. He also had the system ranked lower than any other publication. So not moving GJimenez down further is less about him and more that Law thinks the other prospects are complete crap - they would have to be given his perceived top-heavy system valuation. Of course, Law being asleep at the wheel still seems a bit more likely. He explained this recently in one of the podcasts where he said 1) Most of the Sox' talent is A ball or lower, and none of those guys right now (other than Mayer who's tagged for AA) project to be above average MLB players (3.0+ sustained annual WAR) or stars (5.0+ sustained annual WAR); and 2) All the pitchers at A or better look like #5 starters or, more likely, relievers with maybe a guy or two who could be a #4 if everything breaks right. For example, he sees Mata, who a lot of people here theorize could be a #3 or better, as a power reliever. Everyone else he mentioned he projected as a #5-6 or reliever. Not sure if that explains 23, but there it is.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 7, 2023 15:52:08 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like he has a solid grasp of the actuarial tables if he expects to find guys with a strong chance of hitting 3 WAR every year in the teens of a farm system. That would be a bit of a rosy projection even for Mayer.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 7, 2023 22:27:37 GMT -5
Folks - it's Jimenez. Thought it was weird that Law referenced Cam Cannon, who hasn't been a legit prospect in a few years and isn't even in the organization anymore. There’s no way he referenced Cam Cannon, that can’t be true Does anybody remember the KLaw/Yorke saga- I’m trying to remember the specific details other than Law almost went over the top in trashing the pick. Was it that he tried to walk it back and act like he didn’t do it that pissed everybody else? Trying to remember
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Post by Guidas on Feb 8, 2023 11:12:41 GMT -5
Folks - it's Jimenez. Thought it was weird that Law referenced Cam Cannon, who hasn't been a legit prospect in a few years and isn't even in the organization anymore. There’s no way he referenced Cam Cannon, that can’t be true Does anybody remember the KLaw/Yorke saga- I’m trying to remember the specific details other than Law almost went over the top in trashing the pick. Was it that he tried to walk it back and act like he didn’t do it that pissed everybody else? Trying to remember I think after Yorke's initial year, Law said something akin to "I may have been wrong. Let's see what he does when he starts to encounter better pitching." And then last year it was back to, "If he can't hit at an above average clip, he's not going anywhere."
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Post by Guidas on Feb 8, 2023 11:14:15 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like he has a solid grasp of the actuarial tables if he expects to find guys with a strong chance of hitting 3 WAR every year in the teens of a farm system. That would be a bit of a rosy projection even for Mayer. 3 WAR is above average MLB player. This could be why he likes teams with more projectible guys in AA and AAA. Just guessing.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 8, 2023 12:02:44 GMT -5
Keith Law did it again got all the attention he was seeking from Sox fans.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 10, 2023 10:26:12 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 10, 2023 10:33:04 GMT -5
Highest we’ve ever seen Blaze. He’s an interesting breakout candidate. Making more contact than expected, but hitting for less power (GB% and Chase% a bit high). We know the power is in there for him to improve from his 50th percentile xwOBAcon
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 10, 2023 10:39:14 GMT -5
Hmm, I wonder if people will talk about the "audacity" of Kiley having Jimenez in his top 20 (if the 40 FV tier is in order) and ahead of Perales, or if that type of overreaction is solely for Law's stuff.. Also, adding onto the observation of this being a high water mark for Blaze, I believe it's the same for Paulino as well. Nice to see as a huge Paulino fan.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 10, 2023 11:32:17 GMT -5
I think some people had a pre-conceived notion about Bloom because he came here from Tampa and that initial perception of him causes them to see the system more optimistically than the rest of us do.
Those with the PCN assumed he would be a magic man in building a farm system. This wasn't a realistic assumption because 1.) while he was a key guy in Tampa, he wasn't the top decision maker and 2.) building a farm system is really hard.
Law's ranking of the farm is an outlier on the low side, but when you throw all the rankings together (including Law's because we can't dismiss it just because we don't like it) you'd have to conclude that after three years of Bloom, the system is about average, maybe a bit higher.
That's an improvement from when Bloom got here and he deserves credit. But I think some overrate what he has done because they still think of him as a farm building wizard.
While I give him credit for the improvement, I still find myself disappointed. In my view, the system hasn't reached its potential because:
1. He hasn't brought a potential high-impact prospect into the system via trade. Downs is the most obvious flop. I don't blame Bloom for acquiring Downs. Downs was a top prospect when we got him and it didn't work out. That happens a lot because BB talent is so hard to project.
But it's frustrating that none of his trade acquisitions have worked out. We got five pieces of cheese for Beni and if you look at where the other guys he has acquired were ranked on this site when we got them and where they are now, you see that they have all dropped, some of them out of sight.
At least one of his prospect acquisitions seemed strange at the time and not surprisingly hasn't paid off. That's Binelas. It looked just plain weird when he downgraded an ALCS team to get a guy this site plugged in at 18.
2. I'm totally not looking to get back into the interminable discussion of the 2022 trade deadline. But I don't think it's arguable that he could have improved the system by being a more aggressive seller, though we can disagree about how much. My view is that JDM/Eo could have brought at least one 75-100 prospect, particularly if Bloom had subsidized them. That's not huge, but it's not nothing.
And, of course, the deadline approach will affect the ability to improve the farm going forward because of the drop in the picks we got for X and Eo and the loss of money to sprinkle around on picks.
3. Yorke might turn it around this year and regain his top five SP status. But at this point, you'd have to say PCA would have been the better pick in 2020 R1.
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Post by seamus on Feb 10, 2023 13:13:24 GMT -5
I don't know... a jump from probably the worst systems to one that's somewhere in the 12-15 range -- with upward momentum given how much of the system's talent is concentrated in the low minors and the importance of proximity to most rankings -- seems pretty good to me. Not really sure how you get a substantially better outcome without going into a full-blown teardown, which (to its credit) is not something ownership will entertain. The reasons you cite for being disappointed just don't land for me. You're being hyperbolic about no acquisitions working out (even the Betts deal has had some positives, especially with Wong seeming like a viable big league catcher), the trade deadline has been debated to death and nobody is changing their mind at this point (I'm not sold that either JDM or Eovaldi had national top 100 trade value, even aside from the potential playoff push, and subsidizing them would likely have made getting under the CBT impossible anyway), and the MLB draft is such a crapshoot that slamming a team for passing on a particular player is almost always silly.
Regardless, I do think McDaniel bumping Romero over Yorke already is pretty interesting.
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Post by bosox904 on Feb 10, 2023 13:59:27 GMT -5
I think some people had a pre-conceived notion about Bloom because he came here from Tampa and that initial perception of him causes them to see the system more optimistically than the rest of us do. Those with the PCN assumed he would be a magic man in building a farm system. This wasn't a realistic assumption because 1.) while he was a key guy in Tampa, he wasn't the top decision maker and 2.) building a farm system is really hard. Law's ranking of the farm is an outlier on the low side, but when you throw all the rankings together (including Law's because we can't dismiss it just because we don't like it) you'd have to conclude that after three years of Bloom, the system is about average, maybe a bit higher. That's an improvement from when Bloom got here and he deserves credit. But I think some overrate what he has done because they still think of him as a farm building wizard. While I give him credit for the improvement, I still find myself disappointed. In my view, the system hasn't reached its potential because: 1. He hasn't brought a potential high-impact prospect into the system via trade. Downs is the most obvious flop. I don't blame Bloom for acquiring Downs. Downs was a top prospect when we got him and it didn't work out. That happens a lot because BB talent is so hard to project. But it's frustrating that none of his trade acquisitions have worked out. We got five pieces of cheese for Beni and if you look at where the other guys he has acquired were ranked on this site when we got them and where they are now, you see that they have all dropped, some of them out of sight. At least one of his prospect acquisitions seemed strange at the time and not surprisingly hasn't paid off. That's Binelas. It looked just plain weird when he downgraded an ALCS team to get a guy this site plugged in at 18. 2. I'm totally not looking to get back into the interminable discussion of the 2022 trade deadline. But I don't think it's arguable that he could have improved the system by being a more aggressive seller, though we can disagree about how much. My view is that JDM/Eo could have brought at least one 75-100 prospect, particularly if Bloom had subsidized them. That's not huge, but it's not nothing. And, of course, the deadline approach will affect the ability to improve the farm going forward because of the drop in the picks we got for X and Eo and the loss of money to sprinkle around on picks. 3. Yorke might turn it around this year and regain his top five SP status. But at this point, you'd have to say PCA would have been the better pick in 2020 R1. From things I've heard before the Tampa front office when he was there really didn't have a top guy that made unilateral decisions and there was 3 or 4 involved in most, if not all decisions. Also, outside of Betts who has he traded that you think they should have got a potential high impact prospect? Not to mention, who is even trading prospects like that unless it's for a top player with years of control? You also say Downs was a top prospect, right after saying he hasn't got any top prospects back in return. Just because he didn't work out, doesn't mean he wasn't at the time. 2 months of Vazquez isn't getting you a Hunter Brown or Yanier Diaz in return. Also, they weren't getting a top 100 prospect for either Eovaldi or JD. Look at what the Orioles got for Mancini, probably the closest comp to JD, they got a pitcher who was almost 24 and pitched all of 27 innings last year, all in high A and another almost 24 year old in high A who has BB/9 of 5.4 in his minor league career. In what universe would a team give up a top 100 guy for Eovaldi? He had just 3 starts after coming iff the IL, didn't look effective in them and his velocity was down about 2.5 mph. Look at it the ither way, if the Red Sox traded Bleis or Rafaela at the deadline this year for a player like those two, would you be happy with that?
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