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Post by incandenza on Nov 27, 2022 21:00:11 GMT -5
It begins.
Ryan Thibodaux's tracker is here.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 27, 2022 21:19:37 GMT -5
I think I'm going:
Abreu Beltran Helton Jones Pettitte (my definition of an absolute borderline case, so subject to change based on my mood) Ramirez Rodriguez Rolen Sheffield
First time in quite a while that I wouldn't vote for 10, I think.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 27, 2022 21:44:30 GMT -5
Manny A-Rod Jones. Sheffield
Beltran, Rolen, and Helton are borderline for me
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Post by manfred on Nov 27, 2022 21:55:36 GMT -5
K-Rod? C’mon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 27, 2022 22:23:56 GMT -5
No inner circle all-time great slam dunk candidates on this ballot.
I'd vote for Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner as the three guys that I think should go in, but I'd also vote for Bobby Abreu, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield (don't know if he was "guilty" regarding the Balco thing or if he unknowingly used some stuff, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt), and I'm kind of undecided on Carlos Beltran, although I'd probably vote him in. I can't even get to 10 guys.
I'm not voting for Manny or A-Rod, two guys who cheated and cheated particularly after the rules were put in place.
The other ballot is interesting two. I'd only be able to pick 3 guys but only decided on 2: Fred McGriff and Curt Schilling (the baseball player is a HOFer, all the other stuff I could do without, but it's not like he killed somebody or did something illegal, so despite how much I abhor some of his stuff, he'd get my vote)
I just keep hoping that soon Luis Tiant and Dwight Evans get enshrinement and there are probably some others who are deserving too that aren't in.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 27, 2022 22:46:05 GMT -5
Probably one of those writers who just wanted to see him get a couple of votes.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Nov 28, 2022 8:10:52 GMT -5
Without Papi, I'm having a hard time getting enthused for HOF this year. I'd vote for more, but I think it ends up Rolen or nothing. It probably behooves him to get in before Beltre/Utley in '24. Honestly, dark days ahead for a long time on newly eligible baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/future-eligiblesHope the Not Veteran's Committee keeps it fun at least.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 28, 2022 9:43:18 GMT -5
Rolen Andruw Jones Wagner Manny Arod
Rolen probably is the only one who will legitimately get in this time around. But the other 4 deserve serious consideration. Jones fell off a cliff, but for a while, he was one of if not the best defensive outfielder in the game while putting up elite numbers at the plate.
Veterans Ballot will be interesting.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 10:09:47 GMT -5
I sometimes wonder if Andruw Jones gets hurt a bit by having a career that began and then fell off so young. "He had almost no value after he turned 30." Yeah, but he had 27 WAR before age 25! He was a superstar for a decade.
Like maybe if he had hit the majors at 23 instead of 19, was a superstar through age 33 instead of 29, and had a couple decent seasons at 37-38, that more typical aging curve would garner him the benefit of the doubt; it would "look like" a long successful career more than it does to some voters.
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Post by manfred on Nov 28, 2022 10:11:05 GMT -5
Rolen Andruw Jones Wagner Manny Arod Rolen probably is the only one who will legitimately get in this time around. But the other 4 deserve serious consideration. Jones fell off a cliff, but for a while, he was one of if not the best defensive outfielder in the game while putting up elite numbers at the plate. Veterans Ballot will be interesting. Here is my question: how does Jones get in but not Torii Hunter? Hunter has equal or better counting stats. Both 5x all stars, 9 vs. 10 GG, etc etc. My point is not that Hunter should get in… more that Jones shouldn’t. He would deserve it if he hadn’t fallen off a cliff.
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Post by manfred on Nov 28, 2022 10:13:47 GMT -5
I sometimes wonder if Andruw Jones gets hurt a bit by having a career that began and then fell off so young. "He had almost no value after he turned 30." Yeah, but he had 27 WAR before age 25! He was a superstar for a decade. Like maybe if he had hit the majors at 23 instead of 19, was a superstar through age 33 instead of 29, and had a couple decent seasons at 37-38, that more typical aging curve would garner him the benefit of the doubt; it would "look like" a long successful career more than it does to some voters. But Nomar had 27 WAR at age 26, too. He’s clearly not a HOFer. Life can be cruel, but there are a lot of guys whose careers get cut short. The HOF shouldn’t have a curve or work on projections.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 28, 2022 10:16:04 GMT -5
Rolen Andruw Jones Wagner Manny Arod Rolen probably is the only one who will legitimately get in this time around. But the other 4 deserve serious consideration. Jones fell off a cliff, but for a while, he was one of if not the best defensive outfielder in the game while putting up elite numbers at the plate. Veterans Ballot will be interesting. Here is my question: How does Jones get in but not Torii Hunter? Hunter has equal or better counting stats. Both 5x all stars, 9 vs. 10 GG, etc etc. My point is not that Hunter should get in… more that Jones shouldn’t. He would deserve it if he hadn’t fallen off a cliff. It's honestly an interesting case. I would obviously point to Jones having a higher peak than Hunter offensively. Other than that, the players are pretty comparable. Neither won a title, but Jones did play in the World Series. Jones has the higher WAR too. 62.7 to 50.7.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2022 10:31:51 GMT -5
Hasn't Jones basically admitted he stopped taking care of himself and that led to his dropoff?
It's interesting on the Jones vs. Hunter argument though, because while my instinct was also to say Jones had a better peak... he really didn't! He just had his peak about five years younger than Hunter did, and rather than carry it forward, he fell off dramatically, whereas Hunter was more of a fine hitter who was great on defense earlier in his career before becoming better on offense after 30. It's probably more about their pre-30yo reputations than anything.
OPS+ by age: Age / Jones / Hunter 20 / 93 / NA 21 / 116 / NA 22 / 114 / NA 23 / 126 / 73 24 / 94 / 80 25 / 127 / 102 26 / 117 / 124 27 / 112 / 98 28 / 136 / 105 29 / 126 / 106 30 / 87 / 112 31 / 35* / 123 32 / 100 / 111 33 / 120 / 128 34 / 126 / 126 35 / 87 / 116 36 / NA / 129 37 / NA / 115 38 / NA / 114 39 / NA / 91
* - from 31 on, Jones is a part-timer and moves from CF to the corners. Hunter was a full-timer until he retired, although he moved to RF at 35.
Kind of crazy, but Torii Hunter basically had a Hall of Very Good career after the point that Jones was no longer a viable MLB regular!
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Post by manfred on Nov 28, 2022 10:31:51 GMT -5
Here is my question: How does Jones get in but not Torii Hunter? Hunter has equal or better counting stats. Both 5x all stars, 9 vs. 10 GG, etc etc. My point is not that Hunter should get in… more that Jones shouldn’t. He would deserve it if he hadn’t fallen off a cliff. It's honestly an interesting case. I would obviously point to Jones having a higher peak than Hunter offensively. Other than that, the players are pretty comparable. Neither won a title, but Jones did play in the World Series. Jones has the higher WAR too. 62.7 to 50.7. Again, I don’t think Hunter deserves it… not even close. But he is a close enough comp to Jones that I think he doesn’t deserve it either. It is a case of high peak vs longevity, but high peak and total crash doesn’t get it done. Add: I stand corrected. Cf. Chris’s post.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 10:38:50 GMT -5
I sometimes wonder if Andruw Jones gets hurt a bit by having a career that began and then fell off so young. "He had almost no value after he turned 30." Yeah, but he had 27 WAR before age 25! He was a superstar for a decade. Like maybe if he had hit the majors at 23 instead of 19, was a superstar through age 33 instead of 29, and had a couple decent seasons at 37-38, that more typical aging curve would garner him the benefit of the doubt; it would "look like" a long successful career more than it does to some voters. But Nomar had 27 WAR at age 26, too. He’s clearly not a HOFer. Life can be cruel, but there are a lot of guys whose careers get cut short. The HOF shouldn’t have a curve or work on projections. You're missing my point though. Jones' career wasn't that short; it was just early. He had a 10-year run as a superstar, whereas Garciaparra's run at that level was only 7 years and one of those years was the lost season of 2001. Give Garciaparra another 3 years as a 6-7 WAR player and he has a solid Hall of Fame case too.
As for the Hunter comparison, you're ignoring the single strongest argument in Jones' favor: namely, that he was arguably the best defensive centerfielder of all time. That's the cornerstone of his case! And Hunter wasn't anywhere near that.
ADD: WAR is not everything - I am absolutely not saying it is - but in this particular case WAR makes a total mockery of the Jones vs. Hunter comparison, both in terms of career totals and peak rates.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 28, 2022 11:41:31 GMT -5
My picks:
Beltran Jones Rolen A-Rod Ramirez Sheffield Wagner
Wild that Ellsbury and Beltran are first year eligible the same year. Re; Jones vs. Hunter peak they were about equal offensively but Jones was still an elite defender during his and Hunter wasn't, I don't think their peaks are particularly close.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 28, 2022 11:41:50 GMT -5
No inner circle all-time great slam dunk candidates on this ballot. I'd vote for Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner as the three guys that I think should go in, but I'd also vote for Bobby Abreu, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield (don't know if he was "guilty" regarding the Balco thing or if he unknowingly used some stuff, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt), and I'm kind of undecided on Carlos Beltran, although I'd probably vote him in. I can't even get to 10 guys. I'm not voting for Manny or A-Rod, two guys who cheated and cheated particularly after the rules were put in place. The other ballot is interesting two. I'd only be able to pick 3 guys but only decided on 2: Fred McGriff and Curt Schilling (the baseball player is a HOFer, all the other stuff I could do without, but it's not like he killed somebody or did something illegal, so despite how much I abhor some of his stuff, he'd get my vote) I just keep hoping that soon Luis Tiant and Dwight Evans get enshrinement and there are probably some others who are deserving too that aren't in. I totally agree on Dwight Evans (8 Gold Gloves, OBP,…), Luis Tiant, Fred McGriff, and Curt Schilling! The current ballot would be hard to get two or three let alone ten…
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 28, 2022 18:47:36 GMT -5
No inner circle all-time great slam dunk candidates on this ballot. I'd vote for Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner as the three guys that I think should go in, but I'd also vote for Bobby Abreu, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield (don't know if he was "guilty" regarding the Balco thing or if he unknowingly used some stuff, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt), and I'm kind of undecided on Carlos Beltran, although I'd probably vote him in. I can't even get to 10 guys. I'm not voting for Manny or A-Rod, two guys who cheated and cheated particularly after the rules were put in place. The other ballot is interesting two. I'd only be able to pick 3 guys but only decided on 2: Fred McGriff and Curt Schilling (the baseball player is a HOFer, all the other stuff I could do without, but it's not like he killed somebody or did something illegal, so despite how much I abhor some of his stuff, he'd get my vote) I just keep hoping that soon Luis Tiant and Dwight Evans get enshrinement and there are probably some others who are deserving too that aren't in. I totally agree on Dwight Evans (8 Gold Gloves, OBP,…), Luis Tiant, Fred McGriff, and Curt Schilling! The current ballot would be hard to get two or three let alone ten… Bolded: God yes, 1,000 times over. Omitting Evans (67 B-Ref WAR) from the Contemporary Era ballot and putting Mattingly, Belle and Murphy (all in the 40s and in the case of Mattingly and Murphy, the low 40s) makes the HOF look unsophisticated. It's an embarrassment for what is supposed to be an authority on the game's history. I'm for McGriff on the Contemporary Ballot and only Rolen on the BBWAA ballot. Admittedly, I have a high bar for HOF induction. An observation: Two RS caps - Clemens and Schilling - could be on plaques next July and most RS fans (including me) will get little pleasure out of it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2022 19:02:44 GMT -5
I totally agree on Dwight Evans (8 Gold Gloves, OBP,…), Luis Tiant, Fred McGriff, and Curt Schilling! The current ballot would be hard to get two or three let alone ten… Bolded: God yes, 1,000 times over. Omitting Evans (67 B-Ref WAR) from the Contemporary Era ballot and putting Mattingly, Bell and Murphy (all in the 40s and in the case of Mattingly and Murphy, the low 40s) makes the HOF look unsophisticated. It's an embarrassment for what is supposed to be an authority on the game's history. I'm for McGriff on the Contemporary Ballot and only Rolen on the BBWAA ballot. Admittedly, I have a high bar for HOF induction. An observation: Two RS caps - Clemens and Schilling - could be on plaques next July and most RS fans (including me) will get little pleasure out of it. Do the players get to choose their cap? I think I remember Schilling saying he'd go in as a Diamondback and that he wouldn't go in as a Red Sox as it's obvious he's pretty ticked at ownership. If he got in and the player doesn't decide, then perhaps he goes in as a Sox, but he played longer with Philly and had a memorable championship with Arizona (of course you can make the case that 2004 was more famous than 2001, lol).
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 28, 2022 19:06:36 GMT -5
A hard-to-believe stat on Jones: He put up 1.7 B-Ref WAR after the age of 30.
I'm not saying that should be the deciding factor as to whether he gets in. I'm just pointing out the incredibleness of it. (FWIW, I'm not a supporter of his.)
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,810
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 28, 2022 19:13:52 GMT -5
Bolded: God yes, 1,000 times over. Omitting Evans (67 B-Ref WAR) from the Contemporary Era ballot and putting Mattingly, Bell and Murphy (all in the 40s and in the case of Mattingly and Murphy, the low 40s) makes the HOF look unsophisticated. It's an embarrassment for what is supposed to be an authority on the game's history. I'm for McGriff on the Contemporary Ballot and only Rolen on the BBWAA ballot. Admittedly, I have a high bar for HOF induction. An observation: Two RS caps - Clemens and Schilling - could be on plaques next July and most RS fans (including me) will get little pleasure out of it. Do the players get to choose their cap? I think I remember Schilling saying he'd go in as a Diamondback and that he wouldn't go in as a Red Sox as it's obvious he's pretty ticked at ownership. If he got in and the player doesn't decide, then perhaps he goes in as a Sox, but he played longer with Philly and had a memorable championship with Arizona (of course you can make the case that 2004 was more famous than 2001, lol). The HOF used to let guys pick their cap. I think they ended that practice after Reggie Jackson got a job from the MFY in return for choosing to be depicted on his plaque with that blue turd on his head. I'm pretty sure the HOF would put a RS cap on Schilling. He had four years and two championships with us and three years and one championship with the D-Backs. We are a Mount Rushmore franchise and the D-Backs are a team with a relatively short history, so I think that's a factor in favor of the RS, too.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 29, 2022 0:35:10 GMT -5
Do the players get to choose their cap? I think I remember Schilling saying he'd go in as a Diamondback and that he wouldn't go in as a Red Sox as it's obvious he's pretty ticked at ownership. If he got in and the player doesn't decide, then perhaps he goes in as a Sox, but he played longer with Philly and had a memorable championship with Arizona (of course you can make the case that 2004 was more famous than 2001, lol). The HOF used to let guys pick their cap. I think they ended that practice after Reggie Jackson got a job from the MFY in return for choosing to be depicted on his plaque with that blue turd on his head. I'm pretty sure the HOF would put a RS cap on Schilling. He had four years and two championships with us and three years and one championship with the D-Backs. We are a Mount Rushmore franchise and the D-Backs are a team with a relatively short history, so I think that's a factor in favor of the RS, too. OTOH, he had his best seasons and won his WS MVP with the D-Backs. Also, I think your point about franchises might be an argument in the other direction - I’m sure HOF would love to put up plaques for under-represented clubs
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Post by orion09 on Nov 29, 2022 0:49:51 GMT -5
BTW, I’m surprised at the lack of heat around Beltran. When he was on his retirement tour, there were a bunch of articles quoting execs, players, managers, etc who all had him as a no-doubt first ballot HOF guy. 5 tool player… 67.8 fWAR, 435 HR, 2725 H, 312 SB as a CF
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2022 1:58:57 GMT -5
BTW, I’m surprised at the lack of heat around Beltran. When he was on his retirement tour, there were a bunch of articles quoting execs, players, managers, etc who all had him as a no-doubt first ballot HOF guy. 5 tool player… 67.8 fWAR, 435 HR, 2725 H, 312 SB as a CF Why are you surprised? There's the stain of the 2017 Astros cheating scandal in which he and Cora are the main culprits. That certainly affects his candidacy. Doesn't mean that he wont get in eventually but of course it affects him adversely.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2022 2:01:14 GMT -5
The HOF used to let guys pick their cap. I think they ended that practice after Reggie Jackson got a job from the MFY in return for choosing to be depicted on his plaque with that blue turd on his head. I'm pretty sure the HOF would put a RS cap on Schilling. He had four years and two championships with us and three years and one championship with the D-Backs. We are a Mount Rushmore franchise and the D-Backs are a team with a relatively short history, so I think that's a factor in favor of the RS, too. OTOH, he had his best seasons and won his WS MVP with the D-Backs. Also, I think your point about franchises might be an argument in the other direction - I’m sure HOF would love to put up plaques for under-represented clubs Maybe that's a situation where the Hall has the player break a tie, so to speak and if so he'd go in as a Dback. Doesn't matter much to me. His Red Sox accomplishments are still his Red Sox accomplishments and despite everything won't be forgotten.
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