SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 28, 2022 11:21:49 GMT -5
Figure I would just start a new thread instead of posting in all of the others. Full ZiPS projections just published: blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/Lots of interesting stuff there. Dan agrees that there are so many questions on the roster that things will likely be very different come April, and in particular playing time is a bit of a guess. Some of the interesting stuff to me: - ZiPS likes Emmanuel Valdez a lot. Projects him for a 97 OPS+ right now, and dropped a Chase Utley comp on him
- It is okay with the Wong/Maguire platoon. I particularly like Wong's 97 OPS+ projection, with his defense that is a solid player. And he has a lot of upside, 80th percentile projection is him slugging .505 and putting up 2.4 WAR
- It loves the Joely Rodriduez signing and also really likes Hoy Park
- If Rafaela's defense in CF is as good as people say he is a major league caliber player right now
- Duran's 91 wRC+ is pretty nice to see, that raises his floor a lot if he can improve his defense in the outfield.
- It thinks Casas will be more good than great, but still a solid major leaguer.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2022 11:43:11 GMT -5
A lot of those defensive ratings are off by a lot, so adjust accordingly. Duran as dead average in CF, Valdez only 1 run below average at 2B, Wilyer Abreu a butcher in the field are some that stand out.
That Hoy Park projection squares the circle for me on why they hustled to get him even though he doesn't seem to fit.
ZiPS likes Nathan Hickey's bat a lot.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Nov 28, 2022 12:35:55 GMT -5
I am having a hard time taking that seriously....
Unless I am misreading something.....They have Connor Wong as the primary catcher, exceeding McGuire by roughly 100 PA's....Niko Kavadas exceeding Casas by 90 PA's....Jarren Duran reducing his K% to 26% and surpassing Kiké's PA's by 60
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2022 12:43:45 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 28, 2022 12:44:42 GMT -5
The Red Sox may be a large market team, but they still need to let the prospects play. I will be interested to see how Valdez, Casas, Bello, Kelly, Wong, and whoever else the Red Sox bring up. They are not just trading chips, and they can enhance the team for seven years before they get too ‘expensive’, or if they are like Devers and X, you re-sign them if they are not demanding crazy money.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 28, 2022 12:47:50 GMT -5
I am having a hard time taking that seriously.... Unless I am misreading something.....They have Connor Wong as the primary catcher, exceeding McGuire by roughly 100 PA's....Niko Kavadas exceeding Casas by 90 PA's....Jarren Duran reducing his K% to 26% and surpassing Kiké's PA's by 60 Like others have said, I wouldn't really worry about the playing time, that's not what ZiPS is going for. A lot of these are just simulating what a player's stats would look like *if* they got significant playing time.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 28, 2022 16:27:01 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them."
This does not seem...positive.
Here's hoping he's wildly off with these.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 16:31:03 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them." This does not seem...positive. Here's hoping he's wildly off with these. Is Szymborski on the groupthink train that says the Red Sox aren't going to be aggressive?
Are the Rays, Jays, or Orioles going to add $75 million to their payroll? Are the Yankees going to be better after either losing Judge or chucking $40 million at him?
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 28, 2022 16:51:46 GMT -5
I find the ZIPS update particularly useless this early with so much likely to change (I hope!).
I also reserve the right to be very underwhelmed with the approach of current mgt...until given evidence to the contrary.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 28, 2022 17:17:52 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them." This does not seem...positive. Here's hoping he's wildly off with these. Is Szymborski on the groupthink train that says the Red Sox aren't going to be aggressive?
Are the Rays, Jays, or Orioles going to add $75 million to their payroll? Are the Yankees going to be better after either losing Judge or chucking $40 million at him?
While I still believe the sox will be aggressive and won't sit around waiting for the dust to settle to pick up a number of mid tier FAs as that likely won't get them very far. However I am starting to at least wonder what the "experts" have heard that is leading them to almost unanimously expect the sox to sit out the big $ FA sweepstakes.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 17:27:58 GMT -5
Is Szymborski on the groupthink train that says the Red Sox aren't going to be aggressive?
Are the Rays, Jays, or Orioles going to add $75 million to their payroll? Are the Yankees going to be better after either losing Judge or chucking $40 million at him?
While I still believe the sox will be aggressive and won't sit around waiting for the dust to settle to pick up a number of mid tier FAs as that likely won't get them very far. However I am starting to at least wonder what the "experts" have heard that is leading them to almost unanimously expect the sox to sit out the big $ FA sweepstakes. I suspect they aren't hearing anything. A lot of them are probably not so in the weeds as to be familiar with the team's financial situation. And then the Red Sox front office seems ridiculously tight-lipped when it comes to leaks, so you get very little in the way of "Red Sox are in on Player X" rumors. (Compare to comments you hear about how the Giants will PAY ANY PRICE for Judge, or Preller is going to sign everyone to play in San Diego.)
Szymborski's comment in particular, though, doesn't make sense because if they do sit out the big FAs then they'll definitely have the money to fill their "many holes" (which are really just RF, a middle infielder, a starter, and maybe one other versatile position player).
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 28, 2022 17:32:59 GMT -5
While I still believe the sox will be aggressive and won't sit around waiting for the dust to settle to pick up a number of mid tier FAs as that likely won't get them very far. However I am starting to at least wonder what the "experts" have heard that is leading them to almost unanimously expect the sox to sit out the big $ FA sweepstakes. I suspect they aren't hearing anything. A lot of them are probably not so in the weeds as to be familiar with the team's financial situation. And then the Red Sox front office seems ridiculously tight-lipped when it comes to leaks, so you get very little in the way of "Red Sox are in on Player X" rumors. (Compare to comments you hear about how the Giants will PAY ANY PRICE for Judge, or Preller is going to sign everyone to play in San Diego.)
Szymborski's comment in particular, though, doesn't make sense because if they do sit out the big FAs then they'll definitely have the money to fill their "many holes" (which are really just RF, a middle infielder, a starter, and maybe one other versatile position player).
True the amount of holes the Red Sox have is being overblown, at least in the case of Szymborskis quote. Still though, in the case of the baseball writers I have a hard time believing they don't understand the Sox have money to spend. If they don't they aren't very good at their jobs which I suppose many of them aren't.
|
|
|
Post by trajanacc on Nov 28, 2022 17:58:11 GMT -5
I suspect they aren't hearing anything. A lot of them are probably not so in the weeds as to be familiar with the team's financial situation. And then the Red Sox front office seems ridiculously tight-lipped when it comes to leaks, so you get very little in the way of "Red Sox are in on Player X" rumors. (Compare to comments you hear about how the Giants will PAY ANY PRICE for Judge, or Preller is going to sign everyone to play in San Diego.)
Szymborski's comment in particular, though, doesn't make sense because if they do sit out the big FAs then they'll definitely have the money to fill their "many holes" (which are really just RF, a middle infielder, a starter, and maybe one other versatile position player).
True the amount of holes the Red Sox have is being overblown, at least in the case of Szymborskis quote. Still though, in the case of the baseball writers I have a hard time believing they don't understand the Sox have money to spend. If they don't they aren't very good at their jobs which I suppose many of them aren't.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 28, 2022 18:37:03 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them." This does not seem...positive. Here's hoping he's wildly off with these. I took this at face value, he's more confident in the other members of the division being aggressive than he is in Bloom. I also don't really read too much into it - he doesn't cover the Red Sox specifically, so I doubt he is as familiar with their payroll situation as fans are. I also think that saying 'Bloom won't be aggressive' is playing it safe, considering the only 'aggressive' things Bloom has really done in his 3 years running the Sox are the Story signing and the Schwarber trade, and I am not really sure if I would count those as aggressive. So saying Bloom will continue to shop in the bargain aisle is the safe bet. I don't agree with it, I think Bloom will be aggressive this offseason, but I also can see the rationale.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2022 19:24:15 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them." This does not seem...positive. Here's hoping he's wildly off with these. I took this at face value, he's more confident in the other members of the division being aggressive than he is in Bloom. I also don't really read too much into it - he doesn't cover the Red Sox specifically, so I doubt he is as familiar with their payroll situation as fans are. I also think that saying 'Bloom won't be aggressive' is playing it safe, considering the only 'aggressive' things Bloom has really done in his 3 years running the Sox are the Story signing and the Schwarber trade, and I am not really sure if I would count those as aggressive. So saying Bloom will continue to shop in the bargain aisle is the safe bet. I don't agree with it, I think Bloom will be aggressive this offseason, but I also can see the rationale. If the Fangraphs HAL 3000 has us projected for 82 wins for team without a shortstop, DH, nominal #1 starter, and no real rightfielder, that feels like a high floor to start from. I agree that Szymborski’s (and other MLB commentators) sense that the Sox won’t spend is sort of weird. They have 75-80 mil to spend before even touching the CBT, and they just finished in last place. This is the same team that lit money on fire for Pablo Sandoval after a bad year 😁
Like even if they went the bargain route along the lines of like a Kluber, Conforto, Voit, Segura, Reliever X off-season - does that just barely get you through half of that 80 mil?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 28, 2022 19:40:25 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them." This does not seem...positive. Here's hoping he's wildly off with these. Is Szymborski on the groupthink train that says the Red Sox aren't going to be aggressive? Are the Rays, Jays, or Orioles going to add $75 million to their payroll? Are the Yankees going to be better after either losing Judge or chucking $40 million at him?
That's a bit of a strawman. The Rays, Jays and NYY started out the off-season better than the Sox. Those teams have many of the same players coming back, which means they need less improvement than a team that finished 5th. And even if they lose Judge, NYY theoretically would have $30-$35+ million to replace some of his productivity, and as reports have it, they are in on all the top pitchers, all of whom would theoretically be worth 3.5 to 6 wins alone. Reports have the Sox in on none of those guys. Szymborski says the Sox have a lot of holes, something we've all acknowledged, and they finished 5th in the division. Many of us here have wondered aloud how Bloom can plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency, such as SS and starting pitching while adding additional players to improve productivity. Even if his 82 W total holds — a 4-win jump from last year - that likely leaves Sox out of the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 20:43:07 GMT -5
Szymborski take-away quote: "The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them." This does not seem...positive. Here's hoping he's wildly off with these. I took this at face value, he's more confident in the other members of the division being aggressive than he is in Bloom. I also don't really read too much into it - he doesn't cover the Red Sox specifically, so I doubt he is as familiar with their payroll situation as fans are. I also think that saying 'Bloom won't be aggressive' is playing it safe, considering the only 'aggressive' things Bloom has really done in his 3 years running the Sox are the Story signing and the Schwarber trade, and I am not really sure if I would count those as aggressive. So saying Bloom will continue to shop in the bargain aisle is the safe bet. I don't agree with it, I think Bloom will be aggressive this offseason, but I also can see the rationale. "The GM who has spent close to or over the CBT in every year of his tenure, and who has $75 million to spend, will shop in the bargain aisle." This is a safe bet how?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 20:58:06 GMT -5
Is Szymborski on the groupthink train that says the Red Sox aren't going to be aggressive? Are the Rays, Jays, or Orioles going to add $75 million to their payroll? Are the Yankees going to be better after either losing Judge or chucking $40 million at him?
That's a bit of a strawman. The Rays, Jays and NYY started out the off-season better than the Sox. Those teams have many of the same players coming back, which means they need less improvement than a team that finished 5th. And even if they lose Judge, NYY theoretically would have $30-$35+ million to replace some of his productivity, and as reports have it, they are in on all the top pitchers, all of whom would theoretically be worth 3.5 to 6 wins alone. Reports have the Sox in on none of those guys. Szymborski says the Sox have a lot of holes, something we've all acknowledged, and they finished 5th in the division. Many of us here have wondered aloud how Bloom can plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency, such as SS and starting pitching while adding additional players to improve productivity. Even if his 82 W total holds â a 4-win jump from last year - that likely leaves Sox out of the playoffs. The Red Sox were an 85-win roster that had some bad luck (injuries and clutch performance) and ended up at 78 wins. The way they can "plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency" is by replacing the losses to free agency with the $75 million they have to spend, upgrading at RF (child's play, given last year's performance), making a clever move or two (a la 2022's Wacha signing or 2021's Kiké), getting contributions ffrom the rookies (Casas, Bello, et al.), and having non-awful luck next season. It's not exactly a wild-eyed scenario.
As for the competition, it's obviously the toughest division in MLB. Can't do anything about that. But if nothing else, I'd like people to recognize how boned the Yankees are. Judge had an *11 WAR season* this year. If he walks, they'll have $20 million (which was what he made last year - not $30-35 million) freed up to make additions, and if they're very clever with it that'll get them 3-4 WAR. That right there puts them 7-8 wins down from last season. Alternatively, they'll spend $35 million or whatever on Judge, who is likely to regress by several wins while also leaving them less to spend elsewhere. Meanwhile Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Donaldson, and Cole are all gonna be a year older. I don't think they'll be bad, but they're not set up to be a juggernaut either.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Nov 28, 2022 21:48:03 GMT -5
That's a bit of a strawman. The Rays, Jays and NYY started out the off-season better than the Sox. Those teams have many of the same players coming back, which means they need less improvement than a team that finished 5th. And even if they lose Judge, NYY theoretically would have $30-$35+ million to replace some of his productivity, and as reports have it, they are in on all the top pitchers, all of whom would theoretically be worth 3.5 to 6 wins alone. Reports have the Sox in on none of those guys. Szymborski says the Sox have a lot of holes, something we've all acknowledged, and they finished 5th in the division. Many of us here have wondered aloud how Bloom can plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency, such as SS and starting pitching while adding additional players to improve productivity. Even if his 82 W total holds â a 4-win jump from last year - that likely leaves Sox out of the playoffs. The Red Sox were an 85-win roster that had some bad luck (injuries and clutch performance) and ended up at 78 wins. The way they can "plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency" is by replacing the losses to free agency with the $75 million they have to spend, upgrading at RF (child's play, given last year's performance), making a clever move or two (a la 2022's Wacha signing or 2021's Kiké), getting contributions ffrom the rookies (Casas, Bello, et al.), and having non-awful luck next season. It's not exactly a wild-eyed scenario.
As for the competition, it's obviously the toughest division in MLB. Can't do anything about that. But if nothing else, I'd like people to recognize how boned the Yankees are. Judge had an *11 WAR season* this year. If he walks, they'll have $20 million (which was what he made last year - not $30-35 million) freed up to make additions, and if they're very clever with it that'll get them 3-4 WAR. That right there puts them 7-8 wins down from last season. Alternatively, they'll spend $35 million or whatever on Judge, who is likely to regress by several wins while also leaving them less to spend elsewhere. Meanwhile Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Donaldson, and Cole are all gonna be a year older. I don't think they'll be bad, but they're not set up to be a juggernaut either.
God love you, you are a true believer. The Sox, too, will be a year older. Is that good for Sale? Kiké? Paxton? etc. But I still have to wonder about these FA improvements. They have the -*money* to improve RF… but who is the guy? Not saying none of it happens. But I think the path is narrower than you are arguing. It will require a really active offseason.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2022 22:37:38 GMT -5
The Red Sox were an 85-win roster that had some bad luck (injuries and clutch performance) and ended up at 78 wins. The way they can "plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency" is by replacing the losses to free agency with the $75 million they have to spend, upgrading at RF (child's play, given last year's performance), making a clever move or two (a la 2022's Wacha signing or 2021's Kiké), getting contributions ffrom the rookies (Casas, Bello, et al.), and having non-awful luck next season. It's not exactly a wild-eyed scenario.
As for the competition, it's obviously the toughest division in MLB. Can't do anything about that. But if nothing else, I'd like people to recognize how boned the Yankees are. Judge had an *11 WAR season* this year. If he walks, they'll have $20 million (which was what he made last year - not $30-35 million) freed up to make additions, and if they're very clever with it that'll get them 3-4 WAR. That right there puts them 7-8 wins down from last season. Alternatively, they'll spend $35 million or whatever on Judge, who is likely to regress by several wins while also leaving them less to spend elsewhere. Meanwhile Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Donaldson, and Cole are all gonna be a year older. I don't think they'll be bad, but they're not set up to be a juggernaut either.
God love you, you are a true believer. The Sox, too, will be a year older. Is that good for Sale? Kiké? Paxton? etc. But I still have to wonder about these FA improvements. They have the -*money* to improve RF⦠but who is the guy? Not saying none of it happens. But I think the path is narrower than you are arguing. It will require a really active offseason. I guess I feel okay going out on a limb and predicting Sale, Kiké, and Paxton will combine for more than the 0.7 WAR they got out of them last year.
Am I a true believer? Well, here's what I believe: Your examples of Kiké, Sale, and Paxton illustrate precisely the reason to be optimistic that the team will be better next year: they got like 20th percentile outcomes out of a bunch of guys last year - these three, also Eovaldi, 1B collectively, arguably Verdugo, and Story to some extent as well. Only Bogaerts, Vazquez/McGuire, and Refsnyder really overperformed. Regression to the mean with this group alone gets them back to a mid-80s win total roster, provided they replace Bogaerts adequately. And then they'll have $45-50 million to spend on top of that.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 28, 2022 22:47:09 GMT -5
The Red Sox were an 85-win roster that had some bad luck (injuries and clutch performance) and ended up at 78 wins. The way they can "plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency" is by replacing the losses to free agency with the $75 million they have to spend, upgrading at RF (child's play, given last year's performance), making a clever move or two (a la 2022's Wacha signing or 2021's Kiké), getting contributions ffrom the rookies (Casas, Bello, et al.), and having non-awful luck next season. It's not exactly a wild-eyed scenario.
As for the competition, it's obviously the toughest division in MLB. Can't do anything about that. But if nothing else, I'd like people to recognize how boned the Yankees are. Judge had an *11 WAR season* this year. If he walks, they'll have $20 million (which was what he made last year - not $30-35 million) freed up to make additions, and if they're very clever with it that'll get them 3-4 WAR. That right there puts them 7-8 wins down from last season. Alternatively, they'll spend $35 million or whatever on Judge, who is likely to regress by several wins while also leaving them less to spend elsewhere. Meanwhile Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Donaldson, and Cole are all gonna be a year older. I don't think they'll be bad, but they're not set up to be a juggernaut either.
God love you, you are a true believer. The Sox, too, will be a year older. Is that good for Sale? Kiké? Paxton? etc. But I still have to wonder about these FA improvements. They have the -*money* to improve RF… but who is the guy? Not saying none of it happens. But I think the path is narrower than you are arguing. It will require a really active offseason. God loves you too, even though you are a disbeliever….
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Nov 28, 2022 23:39:59 GMT -5
God love you, you are a true believer. The Sox, too, will be a year older. Is that good for Sale? Kiké? Paxton? etc. But I still have to wonder about these FA improvements. They have the -*money* to improve RF… but who is the guy? Not saying none of it happens. But I think the path is narrower than you are arguing. It will require a really active offseason. God loves you too, even though you are a disbeliever…. I believe in nothing, Lebowski.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Nov 29, 2022 5:19:53 GMT -5
Your examples of Kiké, Sale, and Paxton illustrate precisely the reason to be optimistic that the team will be better next year: they got like 20th percentile outcomes out of a bunch of guys last year - these three, also Eovaldi, 1B collectively, arguably Verdugo, and Story to some extent as well. Only Bogaerts, Vazquez/McGuire, and Refsnyder really overperformed. Regression to the mean with this group alone gets them back to a mid-80s win total roster, provided they replace Bogaerts adequately. And then they'll have $45-50 million to spend on top of that.
That’s the big if though. They need that 4-5 WAR guy, and, if they lose Bogaerts, I’m not sure I see them spending money on Correa. The position player FA market is pretty barren next year, so unless we’re biding time until Casas, Mayer, Bleis, Rafaela, and Yorke all become above-average big leaguers, they’re gonna need to sign someone or trade for someone. And I’m not excited about the idea of mortgaging the future and trading one the above 5 when we have perfectly good financial muscle we can throw around to sign Bogaerts or Correa or Nimmo or Judge.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 29, 2022 8:43:24 GMT -5
That's a bit of a strawman. The Rays, Jays and NYY started out the off-season better than the Sox. Those teams have many of the same players coming back, which means they need less improvement than a team that finished 5th. And even if they lose Judge, NYY theoretically would have $30-$35+ million to replace some of his productivity, and as reports have it, they are in on all the top pitchers, all of whom would theoretically be worth 3.5 to 6 wins alone. Reports have the Sox in on none of those guys. Szymborski says the Sox have a lot of holes, something we've all acknowledged, and they finished 5th in the division. Many of us here have wondered aloud how Bloom can plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency, such as SS and starting pitching while adding additional players to improve productivity. Even if his 82 W total holds â a 4-win jump from last year - that likely leaves Sox out of the playoffs. The Red Sox were an 85-win roster that had some bad luck (injuries and clutch performance) and ended up at 78 wins. The way they can "plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency" is by replacing the losses to free agency with the $75 million they have to spend, upgrading at RF (child's play, given last year's performance), making a clever move or two (a la 2022's Wacha signing or 2021's Kiké), getting contributions ffrom the rookies (Casas, Bello, et al.), and having non-awful luck next season. It's not exactly a wild-eyed scenario. As for the competition, it's obviously the toughest division in MLB. Can't do anything about that. But if nothing else, I'd like people to recognize how boned the Yankees are. Judge had an *11 WAR season* this year. If he walks, they'll have $20 million (which was what he made last year - not $30-35 million) freed up to make additions, and if they're very clever with it that'll get them 3-4 WAR. That right there puts them 7-8 wins down from last season. Alternatively, they'll spend $35 million or whatever on Judge, who is likely to regress by several wins while also leaving them less to spend elsewhere. Meanwhile Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Donaldson, and Cole are all gonna be a year older. I don't think they'll be bad, but they're not set up to be a juggernaut either. So "boned" NYY will finish below the Sox in the standings? Below Toronto and TB, too?
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2022 10:15:10 GMT -5
The Red Sox were an 85-win roster that had some bad luck (injuries and clutch performance) and ended up at 78 wins. The way they can "plug all those holes and improve any significant losses to free agency" is by replacing the losses to free agency with the $75 million they have to spend, upgrading at RF (child's play, given last year's performance), making a clever move or two (a la 2022's Wacha signing or 2021's Kiké), getting contributions ffrom the rookies (Casas, Bello, et al.), and having non-awful luck next season. It's not exactly a wild-eyed scenario. As for the competition, it's obviously the toughest division in MLB. Can't do anything about that. But if nothing else, I'd like people to recognize how boned the Yankees are. Judge had an *11 WAR season* this year. If he walks, they'll have $20 million (which was what he made last year - not $30-35 million) freed up to make additions, and if they're very clever with it that'll get them 3-4 WAR. That right there puts them 7-8 wins down from last season. Alternatively, they'll spend $35 million or whatever on Judge, who is likely to regress by several wins while also leaving them less to spend elsewhere. Meanwhile Stanton, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Donaldson, and Cole are all gonna be a year older. I don't think they'll be bad, but they're not set up to be a juggernaut either. So "boned" NYY will finish below the Sox in the standings? Below Toronto and TB, too? While I wouldn't go as far as to say the Yankees are "boned" I can see where he is coming from. They won 99 games last year and let's assume they bring Judge back, I don't see Judge putting up 11 WAR again. He had an all time season, so let's put him at 6-7 since he's still a really good player. Signing Judge will not leave them much room if any to really bolster the lineup in FA elsewhere in my opinion, as I don't see them going wild and pushing the payroll to 300M. So if that is the case then that'd bring them down to 94-95 wins. They got 2.3 WAR out of Carpenter which nobody really should have expected or expect again. Oswaldo Cabrera could probably make up that difference or close anyway. But look at their lineup and the WAR they put up last year it was extremely top heavy from Judge. Looking at their pitching, Nestor Cortes put up a career year. There's some definite room from regression for him. Cole was good last year but some warts are starting to show up for him and as Incandenza said he'll be a year older. They're probably losing Taillon who was solid for them. Yes they are going to replace Taillon but I don't really buy in to them making a real run at Verlander/Rodon/De Grom is they bring back Judge as that would push their payroll sky high. So as Incandenza says too, I don't expect the Yankees to be bad by any stretch but I would hardly expect them to be an unbeatable team. I don't expect the Red Sox to have a better record than the Yankees but I also wouldn't be all that surprised either.
|
|
|