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Red Sox Sign OF Masataka Yoshida
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 7, 2022 22:07:16 GMT -5
Ok, I admit I’m getting less enthusiastic. As I see it, they traded Beni to get Winck. Now they’ve spent $105 million to replace Beni with a guy who seems similar but likely worse defensively. I’ll reserve judgement, because obviously if his stick translates at about 100%, he’s a great addition. But there is a chance this is just spinning in (expensive) circles. I think the Sox are betting that they're getting 2018 Benintendi with Yoshida for most of his time here (with less defense). So, why not just sign Beni? I doubt he'll get five years/$90M and he'd come with less downside risk. Over-the-top Juan Soto comparisons aside, there's a real chance that Yoshida will have trouble adjusting to MLB velocity and overall pitching skill. If that happens, we'll be embarking on another long countdown to the end of another underwater contract. I'm not big on either of the moves they made today. I think there were better, cheaper options.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 7, 2022 22:13:14 GMT -5
Best part about today is that it made Pete Abraham look bad, exactly as he deserved. I feel a little sorry for Dan S., as I actually almost sent him an e[mail telling him to chill on his entire Bloom narrative.
Remember, you need 4 outfielders so Kiké can play in the infield whenever it's a good idea. That does require a RF who can play CF and who bats righty. Ramon Laureano should be available and fits that bill perfectly.
So Verdugo's going nowhere. You tell him (back in early October) that he can get his name into All-Star consideration if he works his but off, and if he loses that weight he'll see a lot of action in RF, which he likes better and which he handled well his first year with us.
That Yoshida has no platoon split will be helpful, given that they have 5 lefties unless they re-sign CV, which is an actual possibility ...
Bloom said he's adding 3 or 4 position players, and Bogaerts and Yoshida are two and the new RF is 3. The fourth guy is a RHH starting catcher, right? And it would have to be a good bang-for-bucks deal. I'm guessing they offer CV a somewhat below market deal and remind him "hey, this is where you really want to play ... and we and all your teammates really want you."
More on the lineup later ...
Laureano and AJ Puk would be ideal and should cost a fraction of what Bryan Reynolds would cost. Laureano could easily handle RF at Fenway and doesn't have crazy splits. Puk would basically be the LH version of Houck.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 7, 2022 22:13:24 GMT -5
I wonder if this puts Verdugo on the block to get a RF or pitching. This guy clearly can't play RF from the scouting reports. They clearly haven't liked Verdugo in RF or they'd have played him there one would think. I hope they didn't pay that deal to a DH. Meh, if he's a legit bat, 17 million is fair for a mostly DH. His stats jump out. The last hitter to come out of Japan with a hit tool this good was Ichiro. The Sox scouts must love this guy. He's a good fit for Fenway. Can fill in a lot in LF there. Yoshida probably spends a lot of time in the DH role.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 7, 2022 22:15:00 GMT -5
So, is he the DH or is Verdugo gone? Hopefully Verdugone! Onward and upward.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 7, 2022 22:17:10 GMT -5
I think the Sox are betting that they're getting 2018 Benintendi with Yoshida for most of his time here (with less defense). So, why not just sign Beni? I doubt he'll get five years/$90M and he'd come with less downside risk. Over-the-top Juan Soto comparisons aside, there's a real chance that Yoshida will have trouble adjusting to MLB velocity and overall pitching skill. If that happens, we'll be embarking on another long countdown to the end of another underwater contract. I'm not big on either of the moves they made today. I think there were better, cheaper options. We’ve seen the Benintendi show in Boston. It was mostly a flop. You want 5 more years of that? Not that I necessarily think this Japanese guy is the answer, but I’m certain that Benintendi isn’t.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 22:19:43 GMT -5
Wait… why would we want Laureano?
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Post by wOBA Fett on Dec 7, 2022 22:21:37 GMT -5
Does the posting fee count towards the luxury tax? Sorry if already answered.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 7, 2022 22:29:32 GMT -5
I think the Sox are betting that they're getting 2018 Benintendi with Yoshida for most of his time here (with less defense). So, why not just sign Beni? I doubt he'll get five years/$90M and he'd come with less downside risk. Over-the-top Juan Soto comparisons aside, there's a real chance that Yoshida will have trouble adjusting to MLB velocity and overall pitching skill. If that happens, we'll be embarking on another long countdown to the end of another underwater contract. I'm not big on either of the moves they made today. I think there were better, cheaper options. Because they think he'll be better than Benintendi is clearly the answer to your question. Benintendi isn't 2018 Benintendi any more.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 7, 2022 22:30:38 GMT -5
So, is he the DH or is Verdugo gone? There's also the "he's the LF and Verdugo is the RF" option. If the season started today that would be the alignment. I do think this makes Verdugo more expendable though if we wanted to include him in a trade for a better defensive RF. I'd also be very surprised if we paid 5/90 for Yoshida with the intention of him DHing. There is zero chance that Hosmer is the regular DH , Yoshida the regular LF, and Verdugo the regular R, and and they do not add a RF who can play CF. In that lineup, you have six lefty hitters, and in order to free Kiké to play the infield, you either have to keep Duran rusting on the bench or ... or acquire another outfielder to fill that spot. Voila! You've traded away Verdugo to acquire ... someone less good!
So then the question becomes, do you trade Verdugo so Yoshida can take his spot? You now still need the starting RF who can play CF. And you don't have a DH.
In Verdugo you have a guy who is way better than his simple numbers. The average hitter is 20% better than their own average once the game gets out of hand (5 run lead or more by either team) and the fringe guys in the pen get a chance to pitch. In 2021 Verdugo was 47% as good as usual. His high / medium / low leverage numbers (OPS+) were 154 / 132 / 88.
Last year he was 11% as good as usual in garbage time, and had 121 / 120 / 91 leverage splits.
The last two years he had fWARs of 2.0 and 1.2. But that's assuming average situational hitting. He actually had 3.9 and 3.5. And no argument can be made that this isn't sustainable, because the gap between what the standard stats tell you and the real numbers is the result of him sucking when it doesn't much matter.
I swear to whatever deity you root for that I will repost the previous three paragraphs any time someone claims that Verdugo is mediocre, a disappointment, trade bait, or the like. He's a disappointment only in that he hasn't done the work to maximize his talents.
So yeah, Yoshida will spend a lot of time at DH. Plenty of days when he's in left and Hosmer is the DH because any one of six different guys are not in the lineup.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Dec 7, 2022 22:35:07 GMT -5
Does the posting fee count towards the luxury tax? Sorry if already answered. No
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 7, 2022 22:39:01 GMT -5
There's also the "he's the LF and Verdugo is the RF" option. If the season started today that would be the alignment. I do think this makes Verdugo more expendable though if we wanted to include him in a trade for a better defensive RF. I'd also be very surprised if we paid 5/90 for Yoshida with the intention of him DHing. There is zero chance that Hosmer is the regular DH , Yoshida the regular LF, and Verdugo the regular R, and and they do not add a RF who can play CF. In that lineup, you have six lefty hitters, and in order to free Kiké to play the infield, you either have to keep Duran rusting on the bench or ... or acquire another outfielder to fill that spot. Voila! You've traded away Verdugo to acquire ... someone less good!
So then the question becomes, do you trade Verdugo so Yoshida can take his spot? You now still need the starting RF who can play CF. And you don't have a DH.
In Verdugo you have a guy who is way better than his simple numbers. The average hitter is 20% better than their own average once the game gets out of hand (5 run lead or more by either team) and the fringe guys in the pen get a chance to pitch. In 2021 Verdugo was 47% as good as usual. His high / medium / low leverage numbers (OPS+) were 154 / 132 / 88.
Last year he was 11% as good as usual in garbage time, and had 121 / 120 / 91 leverage splits.
The last two years he had fWARs of 2.0 and 1.2. But that's assuming average situational hitting. He actually had 3.9 and 3.5. And no argument can be made that this isn't sustainable, because the gap between what the standard stats tell you and the real numbers is the result of him sucking when it doesn't much matter.
I swear to whatever deity you root for that I will repost the previous three paragraphs any time someone claims that Verdugo is mediocre, a disappointment, trade bait, or the like. He's a disappointment only in that he hasn't done the work to maximize his talents.
So yeah, Yoshida will spend a lot of time at DH. Plenty of days when he's in left and Hosmer is the DH because any one of six different guys are not in the lineup. Is it at all possible they just think Refsnyder is the first guy you described?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 7, 2022 22:52:44 GMT -5
So, why not just sign Beni? I doubt he'll get five years/$90M and he'd come with less downside risk. Over-the-top Juan Soto comparisons aside, there's a real chance that Yoshida will have trouble adjusting to MLB velocity and overall pitching skill. If that happens, we'll be embarking on another long countdown to the end of another underwater contract. I'm not big on either of the moves they made today. I think there were better, cheaper options. We’ve seen the Benintendi show in Boston. It was mostly a flop. You want 5 more years of that? Not that I necessarily think this Japanese guy is the answer, but I’m certain that Benintendi isn’t. I said in an earlier post (and perhaps should have repeated it in the post you're quoting) that I'm not necessarily in favor of signing Beni either. It would, like everything else, depend on price. FG crowdsourcing has Beni going for four years and $56M. Now that may be a bit low, but he'd carry a lot less risk than Yoshida-san. Barring injury, Beni should be a viable starter the next four years. Yoshida might be, but there's also a chance that he's a bad buy at a $19M AAV and we'll all be posting in 2025 about how eager we are for the contract to end. Beni put up a .772 OPS and a 122 wRC+ this past season. I think we'd all be happy with that from Yoshida, but there's also a ton of downside risk, IMO.
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Post by alan on Dec 7, 2022 22:56:49 GMT -5
Even with his small frame, don’t under estimate his power. Friend of mine that watches NPB says he has great raw power but prioritizes batting average over homers in Japan. Maybe we can tap into that power a bit more
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 7, 2022 23:01:59 GMT -5
Wait⦠why would we want Laureano? He's been a 3.2 fWAR / 600 PA player since his rookie season?
He's been a 4.8 fWAR player when you adjust for situational hitting?
He can play RF in Fenway and CF when Kiké's in the infield or out of the lineup?
A guy who thrives under pressure and phones it in when nothing's at stake, moving from a lousy team with the lowest attendance in recent MLB histpry to a contender with a famously passionate fan base, gee, I wonder of that's a good fit?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 7, 2022 23:08:03 GMT -5
Updating my new desired offseason plan: This takes them to ~$40M to spend under the tax. Give $25 to Xander, $5 to Rich Hill, $10 to Kiermaier. Trade Verdugo and shuffle stuff around to end up with a righty who can play center/right. Look into trades for another SP. But they keep doing things I didn't want so they're probably going to give $30 to Rodon and call it a day. If Xander was willing to take $25M/year, it would have been done by now. But it's worth resetting on how much they have to spend post-Yoshida signing. If my math is correct (and it often isn't), they're down to about $37M. If they sign X for $27M-$28M, that doesn't leave much wiggle room, assuming that they want to be able to be aggressive at the deadline if they're in the race and remain below the LTT.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2022 23:12:50 GMT -5
They could sign Conforto and rotate the OF around at the corners and DH.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 7, 2022 23:18:18 GMT -5
They could sign Conforto and rotate the OF around at the corners and DH. Another lefty is just what we need.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 7, 2022 23:22:16 GMT -5
Assuming Bogaerts gets done, they should have less than $10 million the play with before the season starts. So Rich Hill, or maybe a first or second year arb guy on the trade market.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 7, 2022 23:25:53 GMT -5
I've been using the CBT limit as a helpful heuristic for what they might be able to add, and just to be conservative, but Bloom has hinted that they might go over the limit. ("We're fortunate to have ownership that gives us the resources to yadda yadda...") And just with where their budget is at and their remaining needs - OF, SP, possibly C - I think they're probably going over.
This was actually my first thought when I saw the Jansen signing...
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 23:30:33 GMT -5
Wait⦠why would we want Laureano? He's been a 3.2 fWAR / 600 PA player since his rookie season?
He's been a 4.8 fWAR player when you adjust for situational hitting?
He can play RF in Fenway and CF when Kiké's in the infield or out of the lineup?
A guy who thrives under pressure and phones it in when nothing's at stake, moving from a lousy team with the lowest attendance in recent MLB histpry to a contender with a famously passionate fan base, gee, I wonder of that's a good fit?
How would we know if a guy who doesn’t play in front of anyone thrives under pressure? Adjusting WAR for leverage assumes that sample could be maintained. But it would be nice, too, to be professional in low leverage situations. Pass on the “mail it in.” I’ll take free Refsnyder over this guy.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 7, 2022 23:33:36 GMT -5
There is zero chance that Hosmer is the regular DH , Yoshida the regular LF, and Verdugo the regular R, and and they do not add a RF who can play CF. In that lineup, you have six lefty hitters, and in order to free Kiké to play the infield, you either have to keep Duran rusting on the bench or ... or acquire another outfielder to fill that spot. Voila! You've traded away Verdugo to acquire ... someone less good!
So then the question becomes, do you trade Verdugo so Yoshida can take his spot? You now still need the starting RF who can play CF. And you don't have a DH.
In Verdugo you have a guy who is way better than his simple numbers. The average hitter is 20% better than their own average once the game gets out of hand (5 run lead or more by either team) and the fringe guys in the pen get a chance to pitch. In 2021 Verdugo was 47% as good as usual. His high / medium / low leverage numbers (OPS+) were 154 / 132 / 88.
Last year he was 11% as good as usual in garbage time, and had 121 / 120 / 91 leverage splits.
The last two years he had fWARs of 2.0 and 1.2. But that's assuming average situational hitting. He actually had 3.9 and 3.5. And no argument can be made that this isn't sustainable, because the gap between what the standard stats tell you and the real numbers is the result of him sucking when it doesn't much matter.
I swear to whatever deity you root for that I will repost the previous three paragraphs any time someone claims that Verdugo is mediocre, a disappointment, trade bait, or the like. He's a disappointment only in that he hasn't done the work to maximize his talents.
So yeah, Yoshida will spend a lot of time at DH. Plenty of days when he's in left and Hosmer is the DH because any one of six different guys are not in the lineup. Is it at all possible they just think Refsnyder is the first guy you described? No, he's really only a platoon player. But that raises a question: when does be play? Yoshida is replacing JBJ in the lineup, but doesn't need to be platooned.
Looks like he'll play against lefties as follows:
In place of Verdugo against the lefties with bigger platoon splits (maybe 20 starts)
Any time an OF is out
Some of the time when 2B / SS / 3B is out; they'll have a choice between Arroyo, or Kiké in the INF with Refsnyder in the OF.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 7, 2022 23:40:11 GMT -5
their remaining needs - OF, SP, possibly C I dunno, the roster looks pretty functional to me once Bogaerts signs.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2022 23:42:58 GMT -5
They could sign Conforto and rotate the OF around at the corners and DH. Another lefty is just what we need. Lol fair Turner would be cool for DH, but I can’t see him leaving LA.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 7, 2022 23:48:36 GMT -5
their remaining needs - OF, SP, possibly C I dunno, the roster looks pretty functional to me once Bogaerts signs. I'm not buying the current starting pitching depth, and I'm not buying an outfield of Yoshida/Kiké/Verdugo. But it is possible they address one of the other through trade, which would let them stay under the CBT.
And but also there's Bloom's "7 to 9 additions" comment. Including Bogaerts, they'd be at 5 now...
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 7, 2022 23:53:55 GMT -5
Do we count Paxton in the 7 to 9?
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