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Where did things go wrong?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 10, 2022 13:23:37 GMT -5
I think it's very fair to say that amateur scouting (internationally and domestically) has been very strong under Bloom and that minor league pro scouting has been generally poor. There have been wins (Pivetta and Whitlock) but the returns haven't been optimal. The Benintendi trade was specifically a disaster. They sold low on him and only one of the five players they got looks like he can help. Thing is, I don't think it's like an allocation of financial resources issue or whatever. It's that the players he's acquired haven't been good enough, and the roster construction too often leaves me scratching my head. It's funny. I like the drafts under Bloom, but they just can't evaluate existing minor league talent in trades. Its very odd but like you said the only long term wins he has as a GM was Pivetta and Whitlock. Whitlock being very significant and Pivetta being solid. Granted we can't give full judgement on Valdez and Abreu yet. They need to beef up the pro scouting department.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2022 13:27:29 GMT -5
I think it's very fair to say that amateur scouting (internationally and domestically) has been very strong under Bloom and that minor league pro scouting has been generally poor. There have been wins (Pivetta and Whitlock) but the returns haven't been optimal. The Benintendi trade was specifically a disaster. They sold low on him and only one of the five players they got looks like he can help. Thing is, I don't think it's like an allocation of financial resources issue or whatever. It's that the players he's acquired haven't been good enough, and the roster construction too often leaves me scratching my head. It's funny. I like the drafts under Bloom, but they just can't evaluate existing minor league talent in trades. Its very odd but like you said the only long term wins he has as a GM was Pivetta and Whitlock. Whitlock being very significant and Pivetta being solid. Granted we can't give full judgement on Valdez and Abreu yet. They need to beef up the pro scouting department. I guess I disagree that it's that odd. Amateur scouting and pro scouting are two different groups. Totally conceivable that they'd be good at one and less good at the other.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 10, 2022 13:29:55 GMT -5
It's funny. I like the drafts under Bloom, but they just can't evaluate existing minor league talent in trades. Its very odd but like you said the only long term wins he has as a GM was Pivetta and Whitlock. Whitlock being very significant and Pivetta being solid. Granted we can't give full judgement on Valdez and Abreu yet. They need to beef up the pro scouting department. I guess I disagree that it's that odd. Amateur scouting and pro scouting are two different groups. Totally conceivable that they'd be good at one and less good at the other. Very true, but you would think that they make it a point of emphasis to make sure both sides are equally strong, especially given their financial standing in the league.
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 13:30:20 GMT -5
But my point is, those guys in the top-10 are mostly 1st or 2nd rd picks. Look at the archive: take, say, 2017, where we find top-10 prospects Chavis (1st rd); Sam Travis (2nd rd); Jay Groome (1st round); CJ Chatham (2nd rd); Tanner Houck (1st rd). My point is, well, those 1st and 2nd round picks generally almost automatically end up there. Who drafts so badly that within a year those are not high ranking guys? So obviously Mayer, Yorke, Anthony, and Romero are big additions. But none exhibit unusual acumen. They are simply the result of successive drafts. That is not exceptional… it is automatic. Now Mayer is a great prospect, but he is the result of having absolutely mailed in a season. Maybe that was genius? If you add 10 prospects who each have a 10% chance of panning out, then the odds are decent that at least one of them will pan out. But what you do is point repeatedly to each of the 9 that doesn't pan out and say it proves you right. (E.g., snarky comments like this one, or the many hundreds of comments about Franchy you've posted over the years.) And feel free to go through the rankings history and look at prospects in the 10-20 range - typically, I'd say, about 1 in 10 of them at any given time pan out.
If there's something systemically wrong with the way the Red Sox evaluate minor league talent then none of the acquisitions will ever amount to anything. But just an occasional hit makes the strategy of building prospect depth worthwhile.
This wasn’t snarky, and it wasn’t a question of hit or miss. The question is — has the Bloom FO done something *more* than a “replacement level” FO. So my point was that at any given point, your 1st and 2nd rounders from the last few years will be amongst your top prospects. That is “replacement” level depth-building, not exceptional. So then the question becomes: on top of that *expected* value, what do we see? And my answer would be not much. Within not to long a time the Beni trade has mostly washed out, for example. Now… this isn’t about the trade per se… the point is simply that I don’t see how this FO can get *extra* credit for the system. If you were GM, you’d have used those picks (and Mayer was a layup), and your picks would currently be in our top-10.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 10, 2022 13:30:20 GMT -5
You're overselling the guys that were traded imo. Even with hindsight on Downs likely being a bust, we traded one season of Mookie Betts on a 1/27 deal stapled to the corpse of David Price on a 3/48 deal for 5 affordable years of a roughly league average LF and 6 affordable years of a probable major league platoon catcher. Per Fangraphs, Price returned $6.4 million of value to LAD on that $48 million deal. Meanwhile Mookie was worth about $12 million in surplus value in 2020, which pro-rates to about $32 million of surplus value if the season had been 162 games. So, for the cost LAD paid, Price + Betts were actually a poor combined value over the length of their deals; they were worth ~$10 million less than LAD paid. Verdugo alone has already had a surplus value in the neighborhood of $35 million and he has two years of control left. Not trying to rehash whether or not keeping him was smart - my point is just that the return has been substantially more valuable than what we gave up. So, I'm not worried in the slightest that basically all of the value so far has come from a guy who was already a major leaguer. Verdugo was the biggest piece of the return anyways, and Wong may well add to that value surplus. I get that you can't take a dollar surplus estimate at face value, but when those guys have roles on a team with no alternatives (like Boston), just about all of that value is being taken advantage of. Paying more per marginal win for a guy like Mookie makes a lot of sense if you don't have holes in your roster that an average OF could fill (like LAD), so you can only improve by seeking more elite talent. AND, incidentally, if we'd had Mookie in RF in 2020, we wouldn't have gotten Mayer. So, massive W.
Benintendi was not "an All-Star LF" when he was traded. He had been awful for the final month of 2019 and then was offensively bad in 2020 before missing the rest of the year with an injury. He had bulked up and seeiming lost some contact ability and fielding ability as a result. You could argue it was selling low, and it turned out to be just that, but there were serious questions about his ability to start for this team in 2021. He ended up being worth like 4.5 fWAR over two seasons and being worth in the $20-25 million range for surplus value. Cordero didn't work out in Boston, but we'll see if the other prospects amount to anything. I think Winck has a chance to do well in the bullpen given that he's been able to touch 98-99 out of the pen in the past. If Winck can stick in the pen, this could even be a wash. If not, it was an L. It happens.
Vazquez was traded like four months ago for prospects, so obviously they're not going to have done anything at the ML level yet. My gripe with Bloom at the deadline is not making more trades exactly like this one to move guys like JDM. This in turn resulted in getting less compensation for guys like Bogaerts, and will probably prevent us from going over the luxury tax in at least one of '23 and '24. And that's not to mention the value we could have directly acquired by trading JDM, Eovaldi, etc. away.
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I have been satisfied with Bloom's drafting. So far there seem to have been a lot of guys who have exceeded expectations. Mayer was an obvious decision, but even decisions that looked questionable at the time, like going under slot for Romero and Yorke to be able to sign Anthony and Jordan later on, are looking like great moves so far. I'm not worried about Yorke yet because the SP guys aren't worried about Yorke yet. Injuries happen.
Bloom's been shrewd with FA / rule 5 minor league acquisitions as well, notably with guys like Schreiber, Whitlock, and Refsnyder. Again, many others haven't done anything, but keeping that churn going and finding some diamonds in the rough is important. He's also emphasized building prospect capital via trade as well, and while some of those guys have impressed and others have flopped, this is something that Dombrowski basically never did, and that I feel it's important to do in order to increase the odds of getting value from the farm. Bloom could stand to trade some prospect capital more often in my opinion, but I also feel DD went overboard in that regard. Then there's the notable IFA success of Miguel Bleis, who is fast becoming one of the top players in the entire system.
The end result is that 19 of the top 30 prospects per SP.com were acquired by Bloom, including 5 of the top 10, which is saying something, because proximity boosts rankings, and therefore any remaining DD guys with any chance of contributing in the majors will be disproportionately represented at the top. And, of course, the industry consensus on the farm has jumped accordingly. After three seasons, that feels like a pretty decent outcome to me. I don't expect perfection, but I do expect "good" and for the vision to make sense. Bloom has cleared that bar in my opinion, and so I continue to be satisfied.
But my point is, those guys in the top-10 are mostly 1st or 2nd rd picks. Look at the archive: take, say, 2017, where we find top-10 prospects Chavis (1st rd); Sam Travis (2nd rd); Jay Groome (1st round); CJ Chatham (2nd rd); Tanner Houck (1st rd). My point is, well, those 1st and 2nd round picks generally almost automatically end up there. Who drafts so badly that within a year those are not high ranking guys? So obviously Mayer, Yorke, Anthony, and Romero are big additions. But none exhibit unusual acumen. They are simply the result of successive drafts. That is not exceptional… it is automatic. Now Mayer is a great prospect, but he is the result of having absolutely mailed in a season. Maybe that was genius? I don't disagree that we'd expect to see high picks higher up on rankings boards, but if drafting top guys who are actually good is automatic, why have we not had a single regular since Devers? There have been a lot of busts and some outgoing trades. So far it feels like the guys Bloom has drafted have more often raised than lowered their stock; I don't think they're just coasting along on post-draft hype. See Yorke, Rodriguez-Cruz, Kavadas, etc. I looked into this at one point and if I recall correctly only about 2/3 of 1st round picks play a single game in the majors. The percentage that turn into regulars is far less. So, even having three straight drafts with a 1st round pick on a good trajectory, including two with a well above-slot pick in later rounds that were probably first-round talents, is far from a gimme. From what I've seen, I do think some credit is due. There's still plenty of time for all of these guys to simultaneously bust and change my opinion, but I can only go off what we know so far.
You can improve the ML team by signing good players, but payroll has been tight for Bloom. You can improve the ML team by graduating prospects, but the farm has been barren for Bloom. You can improve the ML team by trading prospects for major leaguers, but Bloom has not done this to prioritize long term success over a quick rebound. The result is a major league roster that Bloom has had to gradually streamline and tape together until the payroll and farm situations improved. It's not like Bloom's decision in 2020 was to tank for Mayer either. That team won 6 of 10 to close out the year and was playing its best ball then. There were just precious few resources to make the roster better, so the only real option was churning and burning AAAA guys, waiver claims, and has-beens. I'm certainly not treating him as some crowning achievement of Bloom's; I agree, he was simply the clear right pick. It was a nice consolation prize after an awful season.
Nobody wants to lose, Bloom included. I can't help but appreciate the vision of not compromising on the future for the present. Delaying gratification is fine by me, provided there will indeed be gratification, and more of it. I believe there will be.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 13:33:51 GMT -5
I think it's very fair to say that amateur scouting (internationally and domestically) has been very strong under Bloom and that minor league pro scouting has been generally poor. There have been wins (Pivetta and Whitlock) but the returns haven't been optimal. The Benintendi trade was specifically a disaster. They sold low on him and only one of the five players they got looks like he can help. Thing is, I don't think it's like an allocation of financial resources issue or whatever. It's that the players he's acquired haven't been good enough, and the roster construction too often leaves me scratching my head. I don't understand how the Benintendi deal can possibly be seen as a disaster. He was immediately replaced by Renfroe who was slightly better, and cheaper, in 2021. The only cost to that trade is that they gave Franchy enough run to be worth -0.8 WAR or whatever, but that's not exactly attributable to making the trade itself. And if Winckowski (or the others) turn into anything at all that trade is a win. In the alternate universe where they don't make that trade the team is not any better off.
Is their evaluation of minor league talent systemically flawed? Like I said above, it's possible. But the most likely, and boring, explanation is just that most prospects fail to pan out and they haven't gotten lucky yet.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 10, 2022 13:37:59 GMT -5
I think it's very fair to say that amateur scouting (internationally and domestically) has been very strong under Bloom and that minor league pro scouting has been generally poor. There have been wins (Pivetta and Whitlock) but the returns haven't been optimal. The Benintendi trade was specifically a disaster. They sold low on him and only one of the five players they got looks like he can help. Thing is, I don't think it's like an allocation of financial resources issue or whatever. It's that the players he's acquired haven't been good enough, and the roster construction too often leaves me scratching my head. I don't understand how the Benintendi deal can possibly be seen as a disaster. He was immediately replaced by Renfroe who was slightly better, and cheaper, in 2021. The only cost to that trade is that they gave Franchy enough run to be worth -0.8 WAR or whatever, but that's not exactly attributable to making the trade itself. And if Winckowski (or the others) turn into anything at all that trade is a win. In the alternate universe where they don't make that trade the team is not any better off.
Is their evaluation of minor league talent systemically flawed? Like I said above, it's possible. But the most likely, and boring, explanation is just that most prospects fail to pan out and they haven't gotten lucky yet.
With hindsight, and even if literally everyone we got back busts, I agree, it ended up not hurting the team much. The 2021 team had alternatives and the 2022 team ended up doomed with or without Benintendi. Given what was known at the time, I also think it was a fine trade.
With that said, I do tend to agree with James' point that the minor league return from trades has underwhelmed so far. Is that a sample size question or a trend, though? We'll see.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 13:38:09 GMT -5
If you add 10 prospects who each have a 10% chance of panning out, then the odds are decent that at least one of them will pan out. But what you do is point repeatedly to each of the 9 that doesn't pan out and say it proves you right. (E.g., snarky comments like this one, or the many hundreds of comments about Franchy you've posted over the years.) And feel free to go through the rankings history and look at prospects in the 10-20 range - typically, I'd say, about 1 in 10 of them at any given time pan out.
If there's something systemically wrong with the way the Red Sox evaluate minor league talent then none of the acquisitions will ever amount to anything. But just an occasional hit makes the strategy of building prospect depth worthwhile.
This wasn’t snarky, and it wasn’t a question of hit or miss. The question is — has the Bloom FO done something *more* than a “replacement level” FO. So my point was that at any given point, your 1st and 2nd rounders from the last few years will be amongst your top prospects. That is “replacement” level depth-building, not exceptional. So then the question becomes: on top of that *expected* value, what do we see? And my answer would be not much. Within not to long a time the Beni trade has mostly washed out, for example. Now… this isn’t about the trade per se… the point is simply that I don’t see how this FO can get *extra* credit for the system. If you were GM, you’d have used those picks (and Mayer was a layup), and your picks would currently be in our top-10. What do you think would have happened if Dombrowski had never gotten fired, and was still here to this day? I'm thinking Bogaerts gets extended... and the team wins 65 games in 2022 and has a bottom-10 farm system. (Toss up between whether Dombrowski trades Casas and Yorke at the trade deadline in 2021 or the team is already too sucky to go for it that year.)
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 13:40:21 GMT -5
I think it's very fair to say that amateur scouting (internationally and domestically) has been very strong under Bloom and that minor league pro scouting has been generally poor. There have been wins (Pivetta and Whitlock) but the returns haven't been optimal. The Benintendi trade was specifically a disaster. They sold low on him and only one of the five players they got looks like he can help. Thing is, I don't think it's like an allocation of financial resources issue or whatever. It's that the players he's acquired haven't been good enough, and the roster construction too often leaves me scratching my head. I don't understand how the Benintendi deal can possibly be seen as a disaster. He was immediately replaced by Renfroe who was slightly better, and cheaper, in 2021. The only cost to that trade is that they gave Franchy enough run to be worth -0.8 WAR or whatever, but that's not exactly attributable to making the trade itself. And if Winckowski (or the others) turn into anything at all that trade is a win. In the alternate universe where they don't make that trade the team is not any better off.
Is their evaluation of minor league talent systemically flawed? Like I said above, it's possible. But the most likely, and boring, explanation is just that most prospects fail to pan out and they haven't gotten lucky yet.
It seems clear that Winck is last man standing from that trade. Yes, if he turns into something, maybe disaster is strong. But he was not impressive last year. I think the larger point is we traded a guy who had been a blossoming star and was a GG and AS *after* the trade at exactly the worst moment. So part of the disaster is opportunity cost — and evaluation. They quit on a guy at the worst time (and misjudged Franchy, which was predictable). The Winck element is also an asterisk because he came for Lee… who we hope doesn’t turn out productive! So the alternate universe you are not considering is the one where they make a better trade at a better time. Or the one where they are playing Beni last year instead of JBJ, Franchy etc. Both better.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 10, 2022 13:40:46 GMT -5
Over the monster has a good article “ 2018 should have been the start of something , Not the end”.
Everyone here knows the story.
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 13:43:45 GMT -5
This wasn’t snarky, and it wasn’t a question of hit or miss. The question is — has the Bloom FO done something *more* than a “replacement level” FO. So my point was that at any given point, your 1st and 2nd rounders from the last few years will be amongst your top prospects. That is “replacement” level depth-building, not exceptional. So then the question becomes: on top of that *expected* value, what do we see? And my answer would be not much. Within not to long a time the Beni trade has mostly washed out, for example. Now… this isn’t about the trade per se… the point is simply that I don’t see how this FO can get *extra* credit for the system. If you were GM, you’d have used those picks (and Mayer was a layup), and your picks would currently be in our top-10. What do you think would have happened if Dombrowski had never gotten fired, and was still here to this day? I'm thinking Bogaerts gets extended... and the team wins 65 games in 2022 and has a bottom-10 farm system. (Toss up between whether Dombrowski trades Casas and Yorke at the trade deadline in 2021 or the team is already too sucky to go for it that year.) Dunno. But would he have taken Mayer? I bet. Last year’s group is too recent. Yorke remains a massive bet by Bloom. If he pans out, I credit that as above replacement, because most wouldn’t have taken him. If he busts, it is below replacement… cause most wouldn’t have taken him. DD moved *early* on Sale. It was a mistake. But moving early on X would have been good. So… if you want to speculate, there are tons of possible scenarios.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 13:46:40 GMT -5
I don't understand how the Benintendi deal can possibly be seen as a disaster. He was immediately replaced by Renfroe who was slightly better, and cheaper, in 2021. The only cost to that trade is that they gave Franchy enough run to be worth -0.8 WAR or whatever, but that's not exactly attributable to making the trade itself. And if Winckowski (or the others) turn into anything at all that trade is a win. In the alternate universe where they don't make that trade the team is not any better off.
Is their evaluation of minor league talent systemically flawed? Like I said above, it's possible. But the most likely, and boring, explanation is just that most prospects fail to pan out and they haven't gotten lucky yet.
It seems clear that Winck is last man standing from that trade. Yes, if he turns into something, maybe disaster is strong. But he was not impressive last year. I think the larger point is we traded a guy who had been a blossoming star and was a GG and AS *after* the trade at exactly the worst moment. So part of the disaster is opportunity cost — and evaluation. They quit on a guy at the worst time (and misjudged Franchy, which was predictable). The Winck element is also an asterisk because he came for Lee… who we hope doesn’t turn out productive! So the alternate universe you are not considering is the one where they make a better trade at a better time. Or the one where they are playing Beni last year instead of JBJ, Franchy etc. Both better. You cannot possibly mean that as a good faith characterization of how good a player Benintendi is.
Look, the thing they screwed up is the Refroe trade. Or specifically, not replacing Renfroe adequately. Complain about that! But they did replace Benintendi adequately, it was a smart idea, it didn't hurt the team at least, Winck might turn into a good cheap reliever (I'm told that's important...), and their reward is for people to complain years after the fact that it was a "disaster."
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 13:50:25 GMT -5
It seems clear that Winck is last man standing from that trade. Yes, if he turns into something, maybe disaster is strong. But he was not impressive last year. I think the larger point is we traded a guy who had been a blossoming star and was a GG and AS *after* the trade at exactly the worst moment. So part of the disaster is opportunity cost — and evaluation. They quit on a guy at the worst time (and misjudged Franchy, which was predictable). The Winck element is also an asterisk because he came for Lee… who we hope doesn’t turn out productive! So the alternate universe you are not considering is the one where they make a better trade at a better time. Or the one where they are playing Beni last year instead of JBJ, Franchy etc. Both better. You cannot possibly mean that as a good faith characterization of how good a player Benintendi is.
Look, the thing they screwed up is the Refroe trade. Or specifically, not replacing Renfroe adequately. Complain about that! But they did replace Benintendi adequately, it was a smart idea, it didn't hurt the team at least, Winck might turn into a good cheap reliever (I'm told that's important...), and their reward is for people to complain years after the fact that it was a "disaster."
I am saying that I bet he was worth more at that point than when they dumped him. I’m saying that it is demonstrable that they traded a 1st rd draft pick at his absolute lowest moment. Maybe the best you can say is it didn’t hurt, but there is no way to say it was good. And, yeah, it set in motion a multi-year car crash in the OF — and to a lesser degree 1b where for some reason they thought Franchy might play some role. But they did get someone who might be a middle reliever. And because they were inadequate in a number of ways, it did not cost them.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2022 14:00:55 GMT -5
It seems clear that Winck is last man standing from that trade. Yes, if he turns into something, maybe disaster is strong. But he was not impressive last year. I think the larger point is we traded a guy who had been a blossoming star and was a GG and AS *after* the trade at exactly the worst moment. So part of the disaster is opportunity cost — and evaluation. They quit on a guy at the worst time (and misjudged Franchy, which was predictable). The Winck element is also an asterisk because he came for Lee… who we hope doesn’t turn out productive! So the alternate universe you are not considering is the one where they make a better trade at a better time. Or the one where they are playing Beni last year instead of JBJ, Franchy etc. Both better. You cannot possibly mean that as a good faith characterization of how good a player Benintendi is.
Look, the thing they screwed up is the Refroe trade. Or specifically, not replacing Renfroe adequately. Complain about that! But they did replace Benintendi adequately, it was a smart idea, it didn't hurt the team at least, Winck might turn into a good cheap reliever (I'm told that's important...), and their reward is for people to complain years after the fact that it was a "disaster."
How in the world didn't it hurt them? Look who played games in OF, look who they spent the extra money on right after the trade. They were negative bwar players. Say you think Wink was worth it or something else, you can't say it didn't hurt them and right now you can't say it was a good trade.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 14:05:58 GMT -5
You cannot possibly mean that as a good faith characterization of how good a player Benintendi is.
Look, the thing they screwed up is the Refroe trade. Or specifically, not replacing Renfroe adequately. Complain about that! But they did replace Benintendi adequately, it was a smart idea, it didn't hurt the team at least, Winck might turn into a good cheap reliever (I'm told that's important...), and their reward is for people to complain years after the fact that it was a "disaster."
How in the world didn't it hurt them? Look who played games in OF, look who they spent the extra money on right after the trade. They were negative bwar players. Say you think Wink was worth it or something else, you can't say it didn't hurt them and right now you can't say it was a good trade. You can go read the locked Chaim Bloom thread for old times' sake if you want. It's all there if you want to re-live this conversation.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 10, 2022 14:26:47 GMT -5
How in the world didn't it hurt them? Look who played games in OF, look who they spent the extra money on right after the trade. They were negative bwar players. Say you think Wink was worth it or something else, you can't say it didn't hurt them and right now you can't say it was a good trade. You can go read the locked Chaim Bloom thread for old times' sake if you want. It's all there if you want to re-live this conversation. Agree with you. It doesn’t take a genius to know you don’t just trade someone while their value is at an all time low. Didn’t have to be a brainiac to know a shortened 2020 covid season was definitely an outlier for Benny in terms of performance
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 10, 2022 14:42:39 GMT -5
I think everything starts with 2012:
1. 2011 was the last year with the old draft rules. Epstein played the draft pick arbitrage hard. After ‘04, the Angels, Sox, and Cardinals played the shortstop swap arb where they gave up a draft pick to get 2 as comps (Cabrera, Renteria, Eckstein). After 2010 losing Beltre and Martinez produced 4 first round picks and we only lost one for Crawford. The part was over after that and once harder slots were imposed, it constrained our ability to produce through the draft.
2. Cherington brought flexibility with the Nick Punto trade, but blew it with Rusney, Pablo, Hanley, which in turn limited our ability to extend Xander or even Devers earlier. Arguing for an extension a year or 2 before free agency is kinda pointless, the discount is more or less evaporated by then.
3. DD burned through all remaining cushion with Price, Sale, and even Pearce. Eovaldi’s contract was ok, but easy to argue that we should have spent that money elsewhere. The Sale extension should have gone to Mookie/Bogaerts (but I still have the feeling that a Mookie extension was never realistic).
4. An underrated element here is that Devers didn’t really breakout until 2019, after which our payroll flexibility was gone. The argument there is probably risking an overpay after the 2018 season to extend Devers rather than the Eovaldi/Sale contracts, which ties to the next point.
5. Pitching…we haven’t developed much since Buchholz. Brian Johnson was the closest Cherington had to pitching success (not including Kopech, which was a DD success to dump him before injuries kicked in). This forced us to go all out for Sale/Eovaldi. Porcello wasn’t cheap either. Eddie was probably Cherington’s best trade acquired talent but the lack of farm developed pitching really boxed us in. We needed to go all out to buy pitching to supplement our stellar position player core and that screwed us the past 4 years.
I’m pretty pissed off about this trade deadline and not selling more aggressively, but that’s a function of the new playoff rules. The Phillies didn’t look great at the deadline, but they squeaked in.
Also, the Astros have no mega contracts. A major part of succeeding in this league is discipline. Way harder to be disciplined in New York or Boston with impatient fans. Long term success won’t be gained from massive mega deals. Success will come from extending a young core early and making smart bets there. Think Bello, Casas, Mayer rather than Devers, Bogaerts, Mookie. Can’t cry over spilt milk at this point
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2022 16:40:33 GMT -5
I think it's very fair to say that amateur scouting (internationally and domestically) has been very strong under Bloom and that minor league pro scouting has been generally poor. There have been wins (Pivetta and Whitlock) but the returns haven't been optimal. The Benintendi trade was specifically a disaster. They sold low on him and only one of the five players they got looks like he can help. Thing is, I don't think it's like an allocation of financial resources issue or whatever. It's that the players he's acquired haven't been good enough, and the roster construction too often leaves me scratching my head. I don't understand how the Benintendi deal can possibly be seen as a disaster. He was immediately replaced by Renfroe who was slightly better, and cheaper, in 2021. The only cost to that trade is that they gave Franchy enough run to be worth -0.8 WAR or whatever, but that's not exactly attributable to making the trade itself. And if Winckowski (or the others) turn into anything at all that trade is a win. In the alternate universe where they don't make that trade the team is not any better off.
Is their evaluation of minor league talent systemically flawed? Like I said above, it's possible. But the most likely, and boring, explanation is just that most prospects fail to pan out and they haven't gotten lucky yet.
Benintendi wasn't traded for Renfroe. Even if you think Benintendi to Renfroe was an upgrade (debatable for 2021, clearly wrong in 2022 as Benintendi wildly outplayed the return they got for Renfroe), that doesn't mean the trade itself was good. You're not trading Benintendi for value over Renfroe. The trade value isn't determined by the local replacement, they failed to get anything close to Benintendi's value in return. Those two years of Benintendi were worth 5.6 bWAR.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 10, 2022 17:02:31 GMT -5
This wasn’t snarky, and it wasn’t a question of hit or miss. The question is — has the Bloom FO done something *more* than a “replacement level” FO. So my point was that at any given point, your 1st and 2nd rounders from the last few years will be amongst your top prospects. That is “replacement” level depth-building, not exceptional. So then the question becomes: on top of that *expected* value, what do we see? And my answer would be not much. Within not to long a time the Beni trade has mostly washed out, for example. Now… this isn’t about the trade per se… the point is simply that I don’t see how this FO can get *extra* credit for the system. If you were GM, you’d have used those picks (and Mayer was a layup), and your picks would currently be in our top-10. What do you think would have happened if Dombrowski had never gotten fired, and was still here to this day? I'm thinking Bogaerts gets extended... and the team wins 65 games in 2022 and has a bottom-10 farm system. (Toss up between whether Dombrowski trades Casas and Yorke at the trade deadline in 2021 or the team is already too sucky to go for it that year.) Bottom 10 farm system? The drafts under Dombrowski were quite strong, as were the international acquisitions. And, I'm sorry, which current or future stars or MLB-above-average or average players did he trade away other than Margot? For Moncada, Kopech and Basabe he got Sale and a WS title. His worst trade was probably Thornburg, and even then, the Sox didn't lose a single MLB average or better player. Dombroski's biggest weakness didn't involve building the farm or trading away future star/MLB-above-average or MLB-average players. He's gone because he decided to reward Chris Sale for past performance without asking ownership to sign off, all when ownership wanted to save its bullets to buy Garrett Cole or extend Mookie. That's why - and the only reason why - Dombroski was gone after winning 3 AL East titles. Even in his last year, when the Sox missed the playoffs, the team had a better record than all but one of Bloom's 3 years in charge.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 10, 2022 17:08:03 GMT -5
I don't understand how the Benintendi deal can possibly be seen as a disaster. He was immediately replaced by Renfroe who was slightly better, and cheaper, in 2021. The only cost to that trade is that they gave Franchy enough run to be worth -0.8 WAR or whatever, but that's not exactly attributable to making the trade itself. And if Winckowski (or the others) turn into anything at all that trade is a win. In the alternate universe where they don't make that trade the team is not any better off.
Is their evaluation of minor league talent systemically flawed? Like I said above, it's possible. But the most likely, and boring, explanation is just that most prospects fail to pan out and they haven't gotten lucky yet.
Benintendi wasn't traded for Renfroe. Even if you think Benintendi to Renfroe was an upgrade (debatable for 2021, clearly wrong in 2022 as Benintendi wildly outplayed the return they got for Renfroe), that doesn't mean the trade itself was good. You're not trading Benintendi for value over Renfroe. The trade value isn't determined by the local replacement, they failed to get anything close to Benintendi's value in return. Those two years of Benintendi were worth 5.6 bWAR. Also, Bloom broke the cardinal rule of dealmaking: He leveraged an asset at the very bottom of its value. That's either a desperation move or a gross mis-evaluation. His trade, primarily for Franchy, was a very bad one. The trade of Renfroe, primairly for JBJ (unless anyone believes the prospects will end up with Renfroe's MLB WAR from the deal forward, which if they do, via con Dios) was also bad. Not Bloom's best moments. Every GM makes bad trades, but both of those were glaringly bad in positions of need.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 10, 2022 17:19:37 GMT -5
I think what we are seeing is that Bloom is coming to terms that he is not in Tampa Bay any more. I am going to revel in the success of the Bruins and Celtics, and just let the rest of the offseason play out. Focusing on the Red Sox right now is too depressing (kind of like the Patriots right now) Sounds good to me.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 10, 2022 17:25:02 GMT -5
If the FO is having buyers remorse why not call Theo. He would listen.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2022 0:44:49 GMT -5
How in the world didn't it hurt them? Look who played games in OF, look who they spent the extra money on right after the trade. They were negative bwar players. Say you think Wink was worth it or something else, you can't say it didn't hurt them and right now you can't say it was a good trade. You can go read the locked Chaim Bloom thread for old times' sake if you want. It's all there if you want to re-live this conversation. Yeah I know, yet here we are???
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Post by orcoaster on Dec 11, 2022 0:45:28 GMT -5
I completely agree. That Globe story was highly illuminating. I don't think for a second Bloom was acting. I think he completely believed he had Bogaerts signed. His reaction was stunned disbelief which gave way to the slow realization that he had been snookered by Scott Boras. I've always been a Bloom supporter, but after this I'm doubting his compentency for his position. This is all conjecture on my part, but here's what I think happened. Bloom got the job because he argued that the Red Sox needed to do diametrically opposed things simultaneously -- rebuild the farm system, restock the major league team, and compete for titles along the way. To do this, he argued, you need the smartest guy in the room, one who can find undervalued assets, develop talents others ignore, and most importantly, do it for pennies on the dollar. He got the job. Skip forward to last season when Bloom signed Trevor Story to a team-friendly deal. Bloom's patience paid off. Story was out of options and Bloom capitalized on a value others ignored. Bloom likened Story's lack of leverage to Bogaerts' desire to stay in Boston. Bloom believed he held a trump card over Bogaerts that he could exploit for a value contract. He would just have to wait him out. It might have worked except that the Padres had been left at the alter twice in two days despite being the high bidder both times. They were desperate. Bloom was cocky. Enter Boras. One thing everyone agrees about is that Bloom's front office does not leak. Ever. To wit: the Red Sox just signed two premium free agents earlier that day that took the entire industry by surprise. No one saw those coming. Yet, the Bogaerts negotiations that afternoon/evening were practically held on twitter. Who benefited from that? Scott Boras and his client. Boras had a jittery buyer on the hook. Other buyers were lining up. Boras knew that the Padres were itchy to drop a load and sensitive to being jilted yet again. What Boras needed was one of his notorious "mystery teams." Fortunately for Xander, he had better. He had the Boston Red Sox. I don't know about Xander, but I'll bet during that entire time of "heavy" negotiations, the Boras Corporation knew there was no chance Bogaerts was signing with the Red Sox. Boras knew then that Bogaerts would be a Padre. The only question was how rich was he going to be. When Bogaerts came calling, Bloom thought his patience had paid off. Bloom thought he had won. The ruse of Bogaerts about to sign with the Red Sox looked real enough -- particularly to the Padres -- that San Diego flinched. They swooped in fast and large so as to not leave Bogaerts the choice that Turner and Judge had. Boras wins again. I'm sure even he was surprised at the final number. So there's Bloom in the airport realizing that he just got suckered by someone who actually IS the smartest guy in the room, using one of the oldest tricks in the game. I think Bloom was absolutely genuine in wanting Bogaerts back. Bogaerts was his Plan A, B, and C. And Bloom was confident he had just signed him at a bargain rate because he held the hometown trump card that had already worked that week for the Yankees. Yes, he was staring at his phone because his team had no shortstop and no plans to get one. But more than that, he was catatonic because he just learned a lesson about hubris. It will be interesting to see if he can get back up off the mat from this. Regardless, he's not the GM I thought he was. He's not the GM he thought he was. It may be best to move on. I'm sorry but this sounds incredibly contrived Maybe so. But Bloom's press conference today rings hollow. He says he knew prior to the "heavy discussions" that Bogaerts was not signing with them. Why then at the airport did he need a minute? And another minute? And another minute after that? Why did his voice crack? That is not the reaction of someone hearing what they expected to hear. It is one of shock and surprise. Whatever. I understand that when a GM talks to the team's fans, he's also talking to every other league GM and every player's agents. A GM can't be 100% transparent ever. But it seems to me in this case Bloom was caught in an unfiltered, raw human moment. He can't explain it away. But maybe it will all work out. Fingers crossed.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 11, 2022 9:37:55 GMT -5
I'm sorry but this sounds incredibly contrived Maybe so. But Bloom's press conference today rings hollow. He says he knew prior to the "heavy discussions" that Bogaerts was not signing with them. Why then at the airport did he need a minute? And another minute? And another minute after that? Why did his voice crack? That is not the reaction of someone hearing what they expected to hear. It is one of shock and surprise. Whatever. I understand that when a GM talks to the team's fans, he's also talking to every other league GM and every player's agents. A GM can't be 100% transparent ever. But it seems to me in this case Bloom was caught in an unfiltered, raw human moment. He can't explain it away. But maybe it will all work out. Fingers crossed. My take was that he actually did care about Xander and knows what he means to fans. He was suddenly having to process Bogaerts definitively not being in Boston anymore, and all that came with that. The meetings seem so fast-paced that even if they knew for a day or so that they were likely to lose him it might not have had a moment to really sink in. Like, imagine you have a beloved relative in the hospital with an illness. They seem like they're getting better, but the day before things took a turn for the worse. You might know they could die, but it's all going to sink in once you see that flatline, and you're going to feel all sorts of stuff. Obviously Bogie isn't dead, but he mattered to millions of people, and Bloom was the guy most responsible for him leaving. Imagine if, in the metaphor, you were the one who got that relative sick in the first place. It probably would hit even harder. Agree though - just gotta cross our fingers and see if it works out
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