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Rest of the Offseason
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,852
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Post by cdj on Dec 8, 2022 17:03:31 GMT -5
Why is it so quiet today? Org in mourning?
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 8, 2022 17:03:48 GMT -5
I am very scared of what Eovaldi and Senga will get
Just give me the pu pu platter. We've won a World Series with it before.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 8, 2022 17:13:47 GMT -5
Given Eric’s informative post on Andrus in the SS thread, I can see it playing out like this: SS: Andrus (2 yrs/$30-32 million) SP: Eovaldi (3 yrs/$54 million) or Senga (4-5 yrs/$75-90 million) and Hill or Kluber (1 yr/$8-10 million) RF: Conforto (1 yr/$12 million) or Reynolds (trade that includes Verdugo, Houck, Duran and 1-2 prospects w/ cash; cash paying the remaining arb years on Verdugo) A note I’m pretty sure this would still put the team above the luxury tax line. 2 years and 16 mil AAV for andrus? No thanks. Rest of the moves sure. Though I don't think that trade even sniffs Reynolds unless the prospects are Mayer and cedanne or bleis. Purposely shot on the high end for Andrus. Would hope it would be more like 2 yrs/$20-24 million. Rafaela would likely be one of my prospects in this equation, but if they want Mayer or Bleis, I’m fine w/ Conforto.
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Post by yazman67 on Dec 8, 2022 18:51:22 GMT -5
Trade Verdugo, York, Hauck and Siebold plus 1 A player for Reynalds. Pirates get a solid OF replacement, couple young controllable arms and future 2B. We fix the outfield. Sign Senga, Nate, another bp arm and Mancini. Move Story to SS and trade Hosmer or Bobby for someone to share second with Arroyo and Refsnider. We need a big splash like Reynalds!
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 18:56:44 GMT -5
Trade Verdugo, York, Hauck and Siebold plus 1 A player for Reynalds. Pirates get a solid OF replacement, couple young controllable arms and future 2B. We fix the outfield. Sign Senga, Nate, another bp arm and Mancini. Move Story to SS and trade Hosmer or Bobby for someone to share second with Arroyo and Refsnider. We need a big splash like Reynalds! That's not even close to enough to getting a trade for Reynolds done. Why do people keep saying give the Pirates Verdugo. Why would the Pirates have any interest in 2 years of Verdugo when they aren't likely to be any good for several more years? Seabold probably has little to no value, maybe Yorke could headline a package for an all star if it was last year but his value took a dip.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 8, 2022 19:02:59 GMT -5
Watch these guys whiff on Senga, bring back Eovaldi to make the fans happy, and then go all out on a 1 year deal for Seth Lugo. 2nd base will be a platoon internal even though the 2nd baseman they seek is Story. He's legitimately perfect for that spot. Solid player, I just hope he doesn't start this season like last season. The fans are going to unfairly take aggression out on him for losing X.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Dec 8, 2022 19:03:39 GMT -5
Correa, Correa and Correa. If so, everything is forgiven. Unfortunately, no real reason to think it’ll happen.
They’ll make a couple a nice value trade and signings and will be better than last year. Doesn’t feel like it’ll be enough to move the needle though
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 8, 2022 19:08:36 GMT -5
On second thought...screw it. Sign Gallo and go completely inept. Never can have too many left-handed bats!!!
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 8, 2022 19:24:46 GMT -5
Watch these guys whiff on Senga, bring back Eovaldi to make the fans happy, and then go all out on a 1 year deal for Seth Lugo. 2nd base will be a platoon internal even though the 2nd baseman they seek is Story. He's legitimately perfect for that spot. Solid player, I just hope he doesn't start this season like last season. The fans are going to unfairly take aggression out on him for losing X. The FO is not going to sign a major free agent they don't want just to make the fans happy. They will either sign them because they want them, or they won't because they don't. I also cannot fathom why even the drunkest of casual fans would take out their frustrations about losing X on Story.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2022 19:35:53 GMT -5
My perspective is different than most. I've been gone from the local Sox market for more than 50 years and gone from the baseball market for 16. I watch MLB & MiLB but only Sox teams. The personalities are no longer important to me so, it's essentially become a business to me that I enjoy watching and following. I had Xander for 13 years, I'm good with that. He seems like a nice guy so, I'm happy that he's a successful businessman. How the Sox handled the Xander situation isn't important to me, it's hindsight, as long as they come up with a decent product to watch.
Going forward, with few exceptions, I'll root for whoever is wearing the shirt. I'm still optimistic about the future but there's still work to do this off-season. I'd like to see the Sox sign either Eovaldi or Wacha or the equivalent at a reasonable price. A right handed bat would be helpful but not as necessary as years past because of the no-shift rules. I don't want to see a huge contract to anybody and I do want to see them under the luxury tax.
Most of all, I want to see the farms continue to develop.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2022 19:51:45 GMT -5
ADDING to the above and with no political intentions, if the US gov't passes the legislation to make internet companies pay royalties to news outlets, I'm likely to see far less. Facebook's parent company and twitter have pretty much said they aren't going to do it.
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Post by Jimmy on Dec 8, 2022 22:03:57 GMT -5
Grab Conforto, Eovaldi, Swanson and we can feel alright headed into next season. I think that puts us around or slightly over the tax.
We would have a million lefties (is that problematic? I donât even know, but could be solved with a Verdugo swap) the lineup would look pretty good on paper:
1. Yoshida DH 2. Kiké CF 3. Devers 3B 4. Swanson SS 5. Conforto RF 6. Story 2B 7. Verdugo LF 8. Casas 1B 9. McGuire C
1. Sale 2. Eovaldi 3. Whitlock 4. Bello 5. Pivetta
Bullpen in good shape
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2022 22:24:22 GMT -5
I'm guessing Eovaldi returns because other teams will be hesitant to sign him given the QO situation and like Xander he probably really does want to come back to Boston.
I think the Sox will probably be outbid for Senga, especially if the no-limits Mets are involved.
If they lose Eovaldi and Senga, then they get either Syndergaard or Kluber, two guys who used to be great.
I guess Swanson is possible but I think the Cubs and Giants will wind up with Swanson and Correa respectively, so I guess Andrus is probably the best of the rest. More likely they sign Segura for 2b and move Story to SS.
Maybe they bring JDM back at a lower price to DH so that they have a RH bat in the middle of the lineup that can hit an occasional HR? I guess that leaves the Sox with an outfield of Yoshida/Hernandez/Verdugo?
None of what's left outside of maybe getting Senga really is particularly interesting or moves the needle much. I don't for a second think they're dropping 325 - 350 million or so on Correa.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2022 22:33:41 GMT -5
I'm guessing Eovaldi returns because other teams will be hesitant to sign him given the QO situation and like Xander he probably really does want to come back to Boston. I think the Sox will probably be outbid for Senga, especially if the no-limits Mets are involved. If they lose Eovaldi and Senga, then they get either Syndergaard or Kluber, two guys who used to be great. I guess Swanson is possible but I think the Cubs and Giants will wind up with Swanson and Correa respectively, so I guess Andrus is probably the best of the rest. More likely they sign Segura for 2b and move Story to SS. Maybe they bring JDM back at a lower price to DH so that they have a RH bat in the middle of the lineup that can hit an occasional HR? I guess that leaves the Sox with an outfield of Yoshida/Hernandez/Verdugo? None of what's left outside of maybe getting Senga really is particularly interesting or moves the needle much. I don't for a second think they're dropping 325 - 350 million or so on Correa. Outside of their current FA’s nobody in the media actually knows who the hell the sox are targeting. How many people here saw reports the red sox were heavily involved in Masataka Yoshida or Kenley Jansen until it was announced? Same goes for last season. The JBJ trade etc. comes out of nowhere. This FO does not leak who it targets. And thats good.
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Post by bosoxkc on Dec 8, 2022 22:37:09 GMT -5
More likely to pay Conforto than JDM if for no other reason than able to play field. Senga will go high, but FO may still feel need to make impact. Eovaldi at 2 years makes sense. Swanson smells like desperation. Rather than Murphy or Reynolds (which would be great), maybe the trade play is for SS.
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2022 22:38:01 GMT -5
I'm guessing Eovaldi returns because other teams will be hesitant to sign him given the QO situation and like Xander he probably really does want to come back to Boston. I think the Sox will probably be outbid for Senga, especially if the no-limits Mets are involved. If they lose Eovaldi and Senga, then they get either Syndergaard or Kluber, two guys who used to be great. I guess Swanson is possible but I think the Cubs and Giants will wind up with Swanson and Correa respectively, so I guess Andrus is probably the best of the rest. More likely they sign Segura for 2b and move Story to SS. Maybe they bring JDM back at a lower price to DH so that they have a RH bat in the middle of the lineup that can hit an occasional HR? I guess that leaves the Sox with an outfield of Yoshida/Hernandez/Verdugo? None of what's left outside of maybe getting Senga really is particularly interesting or moves the needle much. I don't for a second think they're dropping 325 - 350 million or so on Correa. Outside of their current FA’s nobody in the media actually knows who the hell the sox are targeting. How many people here saw reports the red sox were heavily involved in Masataka Yoshida or Kenley Jansen until it was announced? Same goes for last season. The JBJ trade etc. comes out of nowhere. This FO does not leak who it targets. And thats good. It is true that it is good. May as well wait until it happens to feel the pain.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2022 22:46:13 GMT -5
Outside of their current FA’s nobody in the media actually knows who the hell the sox are targeting. How many people here saw reports the red sox were heavily involved in Masataka Yoshida or Kenley Jansen until it was announced? Same goes for last season. The JBJ trade etc. comes out of nowhere. This FO does not leak who it targets. And thats good. It is true that it is good. May as well wait until it happens to feel the pain. Eh. It cuts both ways. Ie correa.
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 8, 2022 22:48:19 GMT -5
Its hard to leak your plans if you don't have a plan
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2022 22:48:36 GMT -5
It is true that it is good. May as well wait until it happens to feel the pain. Eh. It cuts both ways. Ie correa. If they give Correa $300+ mill, it’ll be enormous pain.
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Post by redsox3in10 on Dec 8, 2022 23:10:52 GMT -5
Just wishcasting here, but I'd be ok with Swanson (who I think I like more than most here) / Eovaldi / Conforto and go to war. That's a pretty good team. Depends a lot on the health of Sale and Paxton, but the team is better than last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2022 23:32:32 GMT -5
I'm guessing Eovaldi returns because other teams will be hesitant to sign him given the QO situation and like Xander he probably really does want to come back to Boston. I think the Sox will probably be outbid for Senga, especially if the no-limits Mets are involved. If they lose Eovaldi and Senga, then they get either Syndergaard or Kluber, two guys who used to be great. I guess Swanson is possible but I think the Cubs and Giants will wind up with Swanson and Correa respectively, so I guess Andrus is probably the best of the rest. More likely they sign Segura for 2b and move Story to SS. Maybe they bring JDM back at a lower price to DH so that they have a RH bat in the middle of the lineup that can hit an occasional HR? I guess that leaves the Sox with an outfield of Yoshida/Hernandez/Verdugo? None of what's left outside of maybe getting Senga really is particularly interesting or moves the needle much. I don't for a second think they're dropping 325 - 350 million or so on Correa. Outside of their current FA’s nobody in the media actually knows who the hell the sox are targeting. How many people here saw reports the red sox were heavily involved in Masataka Yoshida or Kenley Jansen until it was announced? Same goes for last season. The JBJ trade etc. comes out of nowhere. This FO does not leak who it targets. And thats good. I wasn't saying what they would do. I was guessing what would happen. Great they don't leak. Fantastic. Under Theo there were leaks quite often. I enjoyed Theo as GM in the FO. They made a lot of great moves. They won a lot of games each year and even won a couple of championships. I don't enjoy the current front office. They don't leak but they also don't extend their marquis free agents - which of course is a function of ownership even more than the GM. And the moves they make - they may surprise, but they really haven't been effective.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 1:30:06 GMT -5
One option that I haven't seen too many folks throw out for the rest of the offseason is employing my OOTP 19 Perfect Team strat in real life. In Perfect Team (basically a PvP deck-building baseball sim), once you got into the highest tier league, you were surrounded by whales who would stuff their rosters with overpowered player cards worth hundreds or thousands of real world dollars. It was impossible to compete with them on their terms; the only solution was to find an inefficiency. As it turns out, the key inefficiencies were undervaluing defense and over-valuing K rate.
The first half of the strategy was to acquire the best defenders you could. You could live with slightly weaker defense at the corners if you have to, but you couldn't compromise up the middle. The other benefit of focusing on elite defenders is that they tend to be great athletes, meaning they add value on the basepaths as well. As for their bats, the biggest things to look for were contact (hit tool) and eye (BB rate). Power is all well and good, but power hitters without a good hit tool tend to be useless against elite pitching, which all of these teams had. And power + hit tool is expensive, so most guys will not have both.
Pitchers in OOTP have three main stats based on the three true outcomes: stuff (K rate), movement (HR rate), control (BB rate). To the uninitiated player, high stuff sounds like the way to go. More Ks = fewer balls in play = more ABs with xBAs of 0. Sounds great! As it turns out, though, movement and control are the only two stats that really matter. Remember: we have an elite defense! So long as the ball stays in the yard, we are going to limit XBHs and drive down BABIPs. Most of the time they're going to need to string together multiple hits against this defense in order to scratch across runs. And, when they do score, odds of putting up a crooked number are much lower.
So, summary. What are we looking for? * Batters: defense + hit tool + eye * Pitchers: low HR rate, low BB rate
How well does this fit the Sox? The strat makes a ton of sense with Fenway Park and the rule changes made this year. No shift means contact and speed are extra valuable. More balls should get through the infield and I'd expect there will also be more opprotunities for infield hits. Putting the ball in play and running hard will be more rewarded than they have in a while. Stealing will be more viable than it has been in a while too. Of course, the shift rules also further emphasize up-the-middle defense. Fenway also boosts extra base hit odds, and the lack of shift may well result in lines being less well defended, so Red Sox contact hitters are in for a double helping of XBHs this year.
The Sox already have two elite defenders up the middle: Hernandez and Story. McGuire and Wong are not elite defenders, but both are solid; an upgrade would therefore be possible, but not mandatory. In order to not compromise on middle infield, the Sox would need to acquire a legit SS. The good news is that both Swanson and Correa are excellent defenders. We should grab one, even if it's sky high AAV but short on years. RF should also be filled with a CF quality defender, and ideally a RHH. Reynolds is the dream, or if LHH were acceptable, perhaps a guy like Thomas.
For SP, Eovaldi would fit from a BB rate perspective, but not a HR rate perspective (early career he was good, but not generally since then). Bassitt looks great on both. Senga's HR rate is even better, but his walk rate is more average to above average. Bassitt seems like the play for the strat, but Senga wouldn't be bad either.
So far the new signings embody this well. Yoshida is all about eye and hit tool. He fields poorly, but LF at Fenway is not a position of concern. All three relievers signed so far do a decent job of limiting HRs and two have low BB rates. Top draft picks as well have mostly been focused on hit tool, OBP, and up-the-middle defense. Brasier was a somewhat unpopular tender and his greatest strength is low BB rate. So far so good with all of this.
Other key things to focus on: keep Rafaela. Elite CF defense should be hoarded and Hernandez is a FA after this season. Continue avoiding bullpen arms with control issues.
TL;DR What if the Sox identity wasn't just "great bats"? What about, "Good bats, but great defense" instead?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,852
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2022 1:36:44 GMT -5
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 1:41:07 GMT -5
Love it given the available options. Only issue is that he's a LHH, but honestly I'm to the point were I don't really care anymore. Just give me a guy with a glove and some semblance of ceiling with the bat. He also had a 15% K rate and 11% BB rate last year, 18% K and 10% BB for his career. If he sucks, worst case Refsnyder gets more playing time.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 9, 2022 1:46:58 GMT -5
Love it given the available options. Only issue is that he's a LHH, but honestly I'm to the point were I don't really care anymore. Just give me a guy with a glove and some semblance of ceiling with the bat. He also had a 15% K rate and 11% BB rate last year, 18% K and 10% BB for his career. If he sucks, worst case Refsnyder gets more playing time. Totally forgot about Kepler. I think this is a good match. Excellent defense and running skills w/ a decent bat if he can alter some things. Makes $8 mil this year, $10 mil option next year. Most importantly, would come at relatively reasonable trade cost — maybe just Houck straight up?
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