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Rest of the Offseason
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 26, 2023 10:48:37 GMT -5
Benintendi absolutely did it on his own, and the FO was pissed. Cora mentioned that Verdugo also bulked up more than they asked, and per his brother Chris, has been cutting down all offseason and working on agility. Yorke was just flat out hurt. I don't think the Sox were trying to reinvent any of these guys, but to speak to your last point of "how much is it worth", like tens of millions of dollars in arb and free agency. Teams aren't making godfather offers to .285 hitters with 12 home runs. It's natural for these guys to want to add to their power totals, much like it's natural for a guy like Houck who is best suited for the bullpen to want to start. It's about maximizing earning potential If Yorke was really hurt, when would they have played him through it at the expense of his confidence and trade value? Not saying he wasn’t injured, I just don’t get the logic in playing him through it then. www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-nick-yorke-looking-to-bounce-back-in-aflYorke has addressed all that he dealt with last year. "Turf toe. Back stiffness. Left wrist soreness. The injuries stacked up for Yorke amidst a trying year." He didn't always play through it, he missed time from the end of May until the end of June, and again from the beginning of July til late July. They couldn't just shut him down for the minor injuries that he played through, it would've been more of a lost season than it already was.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 26, 2023 10:52:45 GMT -5
Really holding out hope that maybe we try and swing a trade for Brendan Rogers, feel like he can realistically be available for the right price and he is a perfect fit
Right handed bat that we can slide into the 2 hole. Can take over at SS in 2024 to give Mayer time, and can trade him in the 2024 off-season if all goes well
Yoshida Rogers Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo
That’s a way more extended and balanced lineup.
I think he can be available because he isn’t a star, is already in arb, and the Rockies aren’t exactly looking competitive these next two years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2023 11:01:34 GMT -5
This is a great set of posts. We can't ignore facts: the starting pitching got shredded because of injuries and the pen gave up what leads they did have over and over again. But the larger point holds. Incentivizing the all or nothing approach has brought the game to its current state. So there's an effort to reset. That's going to be on ownership, to value the parts of the game that got pushed to the side. I guess that's what MLB is shooting for, but herding owners will only work if they see success on the alternative. The Yankees are running proof that the all or nothing approach gets torched by good sps in the playoffs. 2018 we had power but damn we worked out a lot of lengthy at bats. But the 2022 team is not constructed at all that way. We just do not have a deep lineup Yoshida Turner Devers Casas That’s really what our top 4 in the lineup should look like, even with 2 lefties in a row there. We can’t have Hernandez and a career .314 OBP in the top 4 of the lineup, that is just not productive. We might have to default him At 5 because we don’t have a right handed power bat after Turner at this point Duvall is a RH power bat, albeit with a low OBP.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 26, 2023 11:01:58 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 26, 2023 11:03:59 GMT -5
Are they giving up on Ronnaldo Hernandez behind the plate?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2023 11:10:22 GMT -5
The Yankees are running proof that the all or nothing approach gets torched by good sps in the playoffs. 2018 we had power but damn we worked out a lot of lengthy at bats. But the 2022 team is not constructed at all that way. We just do not have a deep lineup Yoshida Turner Devers Casas That’s really what our top 4 in the lineup should look like, even with 2 lefties in a row there. We can’t have Hernandez and a career .314 OBP in the top 4 of the lineup, that is just not productive. We might have to default him At 5 because we don’t have a right handed power bat after Turner at this point Duvall is a RH power bat, albeit with a low OBP. Gonna use this as the place to make my Duvall prediction: 33 home runs and a .300 OBP, Fenway suits him well.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 26, 2023 11:11:00 GMT -5
Really holding out hope that maybe we try and swing a trade for Brendan Rogers, feel like he can realistically be available for the right price and he is a perfect fit Right handed bat that we can slide into the 2 hole. Can take over at SS in 2024 to give Mayer time, and can trade him in the 2024 off-season if all goes well Yoshida Rogers Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo Thatâs a way more extended and balanced lineup. I think he can be available because he isnât a star, is already in arb, and the Rockies arenât exactly looking competitive these next two years. Brendan Rodgers has a career 87 wRC+; it's 95 in the last two seasons with a .326 OBP. That's worse than Arroyo on each count other than OBP (Arroyo's has been .323). Kiké has an identical 95 wRC+ over the last two seasons as well.
Maybe he'd be a useful placeholder until Story comes back, if Mondesi isn't healthy, but I don't actually see how he'd be an upgrade on existing options.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2023 11:12:09 GMT -5
Are they giving up on Ronnaldo Hernandez behind the plate? Would seem an odd time to do that with the robo-umps coming.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 26, 2023 11:17:08 GMT -5
Really holding out hope that maybe we try and swing a trade for Brendan Rogers, feel like he can realistically be available for the right price and he is a perfect fit Right handed bat that we can slide into the 2 hole. Can take over at SS in 2024 to give Mayer time, and can trade him in the 2024 off-season if all goes well Yoshida Rogers Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo That’s a way more extended and balanced lineup. I think he can be available because he isn’t a star, is already in arb, and the Rockies aren’t exactly looking competitive these next two years. How does adding Rodgers change anything though? What we have already is similar in terms of productivity. A couple posts ago you said it’s not a deep and extended lineup. Do you really think adding Rodgers takes it from that to a “much more extended and balanced lineup”? Not sure I see how it does that. I’d rather just have Arroyo play.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 26, 2023 11:19:29 GMT -5
Are they giving up on Ronnaldo Hernandez behind the plate? Would seem an odd time to do that with the robo-umps coming. I mean it'd be a 1 year depth move, and it's not like the Robo-Umps are going to be in MLB this season.
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Post by rico6 on Jan 26, 2023 11:21:16 GMT -5
If I recall correctly, doesn't Perez have a cannon for an arm. If so, it would make for an interesting ST competition as Alfaro has a strong arm as well and I thought McGwire had a decent arm (I don't remember with Connor Wong). With the new rule changes with pick-off attempts, catchers with cannons will be helpful.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2023 11:23:06 GMT -5
Would seem an odd time to do that with the robo-umps coming. I mean it'd be a 1 year depth move, and it's not like the Robo-Umps are going to be in MLB this season. I don't think they are giving up on him at catcher, but if that's the case he needs to actually play catcher this year in AAA. I don't really think Alfaro/Perez prevent that though, even if they do sign Perez I really doubt both of those guys are in still the org come June barring an injury.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2023 11:30:18 GMT -5
Sox checked in on Matt Moore per Cotillo. Interesting case, his fastball velocity was up 1.5 MPH this year (at age 33) and his K% jumped 10 percentage points. Makes sense as a lefty bullpen option.
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Post by seamus on Jan 26, 2023 11:32:25 GMT -5
It's hard to have too much catching depth, so I'm fine with giving the roster as many options as possible. Maybe McGuire and Wong really click such that one of the AAA catchers can be a meaningful trade target for a team with injury problems.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 26, 2023 11:36:19 GMT -5
Sox checked in on Matt Moore per Cotillo. Interesting case, his fastball velocity was up 1.5 MPH this year (at age 33) and his K% jumped 10 percentage points. Makes sense as a lefty bullpen option. I didn’t realize he was a FA. He was good out of the pen this year (10 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 2.98 FIP, 3.87 xFIP). It was his first year exclusively out of the pen so I think that explains the velo jump. His pitch values all jumped substantially as a reliever this year. If he cleans up the walks, there’s even more value there. Good Taylor replacement IMO. Doesn’t feel like it was that long ago that he was a top 3 prospect in the MLB with Trout and Harper.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2023 11:42:06 GMT -5
Sox checked in on Matt Moore per Cotillo. Interesting case, his fastball velocity was up 1.5 MPH this year (at age 33) and his K% jumped 10 percentage points. Makes sense as a lefty bullpen option. I didn’t realize he was a FA. He was good out of the pen this year (10 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 2.98 FIP, 3.87 xFIP). It was his first year exclusively out of the pen so I think that explains the velo jump. I think he’d be a good Taylor replacement for sure. Ah you're right, I saw the IP total from 2021 was nearly identical to 2022 and assumed he was in relief both years. That makes sense.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 26, 2023 13:50:36 GMT -5
If I recall correctly, doesn't Perez have a cannon for an arm. If so, it would make for an interesting ST competition as Alfaro has a strong arm as well and I thought McGwire had a decent arm (I don't remember with Connor Wong). With the new rule changes with pick-off attempts, catchers with cannons will be helpful. He is an elite defensive catcher and he does in fact have a cannon Most of the time can’t hit a lick but tbh Idc if my backup catcher hits
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 26, 2023 13:58:50 GMT -5
Really holding out hope that maybe we try and swing a trade for Brendan Rogers, feel like he can realistically be available for the right price and he is a perfect fit Right handed bat that we can slide into the 2 hole. Can take over at SS in 2024 to give Mayer time, and can trade him in the 2024 off-season if all goes well Yoshida Rogers Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo Thatâs a way more extended and balanced lineup. I think he can be available because he isnât a star, is already in arb, and the Rockies arenât exactly looking competitive these next two years. Brendan Rodgers has a career 87 wRC+; it's 95 in the last two seasons with a .326 OBP. That's worse than Arroyo on each count other than OBP (Arroyo's has been .323). Kiké has an identical 95 wRC+ over the last two seasons as well.
Maybe he'd be a useful placeholder until Story comes back, if Mondesi isn't healthy, but I don't actually see how he'd be an upgrade on existing options.
Some projection here but I’m willing to bet on Rogers tapping into more of his potential this year in his age 26 season. He’s a former top 40 prospect with really good minor league numbers to back it up. Also was derailed by a torn labrum a notoriously long recovery time for baseball players. He is a high floor nice potential talented late bloomer in my opinion Projection sites seem to think the same as well in terms of him taking another step forward in 2023
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 26, 2023 13:59:47 GMT -5
Are they giving up on Ronnaldo Hernandez behind the plate? Would seem an odd time to do that with the robo-umps coming. I am a bit confused by this....catchers will no longer be required with robo-umps?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2023 14:09:31 GMT -5
Would seem an odd time to do that with the robo-umps coming. I am a bit confused by this....catchers will no longer be required with robo-umps? His biggest defensive problem (as far as I understand) is framing, with robo-umps that skill is no longer relevant so he could have a better defensive fit at catcher.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2023 22:31:18 GMT -5
Not following the interest in Perez. Hiw many catchers who can't hit do they need to collect?
With the exception of his 2019 season when everybody was whacking HRs, he's basically Sandy Leon.
Matt Moore is interesting but the walks are worrisome. I'd prefer Chafin or Smith or possibly Britton, but would take Moore if the alternative was going with what they got.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 27, 2023 0:26:26 GMT -5
Not following the interest in Perez. Hiw many catchers who can't hit do they need to collect? With the exception of his 2019 season when everybody was whacking HRs, he's basically Sandy Leon. Matt Moore is interesting but the walks are worrisome. I'd prefer Chafin or Smith or possibly Britton, but would take Moore if the alternative was going with what they got. He was literally the best defensive player in baseball according to Wilson in 2019 and he’s shown MUCH better offensive potential than Leon in that year as well. I’d imagine it’d be a minor league deal given his injury last year, it’s not like his presence changes things unless he performs well Take the 2 best catchers out of McGuire/Alfaro/Wong/Perez and you probably have a formidable duo
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 27, 2023 5:06:43 GMT -5
This is a great set of posts. We can't ignore facts: the starting pitching got shredded because of injuries and the pen gave up what leads they did have over and over again. But the larger point holds. Incentivizing the all or nothing approach has brought the game to its current state. So there's an effort to reset. That's going to be on ownership, to value the parts of the game that got pushed to the side. I guess that's what MLB is shooting for, but herding owners will only work if they see success on the alternative. The Yankees are running proof that the all or nothing approach gets torched by good sps in the playoffs. 2018 we had power but damn we worked out a lot of lengthy at bats. But the 2022 team is not constructed at all that way. We just do not have a deep lineup Yoshida Turner Devers Casas Thatâs really what our top 4 in the lineup should look like, even with 2 lefties in a row there. We canât have Hernandez and a career .314 OBP in the top 4 of the lineup, that is just not productive. We might have to default him At 5 because we donât have a right handed power bat after Turner at this point The Sox inexplicably hit Kiké leadoff in 2021, as if they knew something no one else did. I believe I said from the outset that they must be trying to transform him as a hitter, seeing upside that others didn't.
And it certainly looks like they did just that in June. That it might not happen right away is understandable if the idea is "you can be a much hitter if you do X" and there is more than one way to do X.
On June 2 he was hitting .228 /.284 / .388 (.290 xwOBA, .289 wOBA), exclusively as a leadoff hitter. They had him sit for two games and dropped him down to 7th. This is consistent with giving up on what seemed to be the best way to do X and trying a plan B.
He went 1 for 8 in his first two games, a .109 xwOBA and .155 wOBA.
On June 7 they dropped him down to 8th (2 games) and ninth (1) and he went 4/10 with a 2B and BB -- a .391 xwOBA and .416 wOBA while the team as a whole had a .303 and .241 (scoring just 9 runs). Those bad numbers were including Kiké, of course. That was enough to get him promoted back to leadoff.
And from June 7 to the end of the playoffs Kiké Hernandez had 453 PA and hit .282 / .371 / .530, a .380 wOBA. Luck? His xwOBA was .378, with an expected .278 / .371 / .510 line. And note that this was against tougher than average opposing pitching.
Hot streak? I looked at the game logs of his entire career and there was nothing like this. And he did have a cold streak. He got hurt on August 26, missed 11 games, and hit .111 / .150 / .167 in his first 9 games back -- clearly out of sorts. There was some bad luck there -- his xwOBA was .279 versus a wOBA of .141 -- but that's still an obvious downgrade from before and after.
There were 268 hitters -- almost exactly 9 per team -- that had 200+ PA (including the post-season) from June 7 on. Kiké ranked 29th in both wOBA and xwOBA. That's good enough to be one of the two best hitters on a good team. And he had far more PA than most guys, so if you regressed everyone to the mean, properly, he'd fare better.
I think I'll do that tomorrow or over the weekend, but in the meantime here's the wOBA leaderboard for guys who had 400 PA June 7 and onward ...
Harper Soto Votto Goldschmidt * Freeman * Guerrero, Jr. Stanton Reynolds, B.
* Alvarez Turner, T. Hernandez Judge Devers Alonso
* Had as many or more PA than Kiké.
So I kind of think his career stats are kind of meaningless here. I see no reason to believe that he couldn't be sort of the same hitter as he was two years ago, after the breakthrough, if he avoids injuries that affect his hitting, as he couldn't last year. There's a lot of leeway where he can still be good enough to hit 4th or 2nd:
.282 / .371 / .530 Kiké in 2021 .276 / .352 / .481 Cleanup hitter, 8th best team's production in 2021 from that spot (Rays) .275 / .336 / .483 Same, for #2 hitter (Jays)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 27, 2023 7:17:19 GMT -5
Not following the interest in Perez. Hiw many catchers who can't hit do they need to collect? With the exception of his 2019 season when everybody was whacking HRs, he's basically Sandy Leon. Matt Moore is interesting but the walks are worrisome. I'd prefer Chafin or Smith or possibly Britton, but would take Moore if the alternative was going with what they got. He was literally the best defensive player in baseball according to Wilson in 2019 and he’s shown MUCH better offensive potential than Leon in that year as well. I’d imagine it’d be a minor league deal given his injury last year, it’s not like his presence changes things unless he performs well Take the 2 best catchers out of McGuire/Alfaro/Wong/Perez and you probably have a formidable duo He had a good year in 2019 like Sandy Leon had in 2016. What has he been since? Offensively unacceptable I would say. 2019 was quite a while ago. I dont see the situation as formidable exactly, but yeah, they'll have 2 catchers who will play well defensively, so ok. They're not going to get much offense out of that spot this year. I guess for the most part that describes the majority of the league outside of Baltimore.
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Post by costpet on Jan 27, 2023 7:50:08 GMT -5
I think Bloom's philosophy is sign as many average players he can find and hope one or two has a surprisingly good year. Just sign everyone he can find on the cheap and roll the dice.
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