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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by carita on Dec 18, 2022 11:46:01 GMT -5
We will see how long this lasts, but my 2 cents (go easy on me, I'm a newer poster)...
I don't like the direction the Red Sox are going, but that's mostly because I'll always be attached to the magical 2018 season and its players. It is sad to see them all gone or about to be gone in such a short time frame considering their youth, and unless Devers gets extended none will become true Red Sox legends.
That being said, I think I understand what is trying to be accomplished here and the GM came in at an awkward juncture for the Sox's young star players. The common fan narrative is that the Sox don't want to spend money (despite always being in the top 5 of payroll) and that the GM being a Rays disciple means they want to operate cheaply. But the reality is they want to spend money, they just have a perception that they don't want to be hamstrung by David Price/Chris Sale sized contracts, even at the cost of alienating fans in a buyers market by losing marquee names. Boston already has a "love me or hate me" sort of reputation with players, so without swinging a big hammer in free agency and struggling to win, they are starting to see players decline them vs. similar offers elsewhere.
The model I think the GM and the team wants is similar to the Atlanta Braves pre-2022 off-season. The Braves identified a bit of a market edge for a few years by locking up young talent at team-friendly deals before they get too big for their britches and demand top dollar. The Braves were able to sign Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris and Strider early, and found fair market value for Olson. They lost Freddie Freeman in the process which burned many fans, but Freeman by that point was a product of the free market demanding top dollar.
Unfortunately for this GM and the fans, Betts, Bogaerts, Devers (and to an extent Benintendi had he stayed healthy and not dumped in a trade) were already established or just enough established to know their value and hold out for free agency. There was no lowballing or getting in early, and I think Mookie especially had an influence on these crop of guys to hold out for their true free market worth.
When the next crop of guys begin to establish themselves (possibly Casas, Mayer, Raffaela, Yorke et. al) I think we will see the GM make a big push to get them under early contracts and avoid the awkward "I want $300 million" conversations. Unfortunately, with the way the market is changing, I think more and more young players are going to hold out and let the market determine their worth.
It's all fine and good and the GM is a smart man. But so was Sam Hinkie. A big market team with an impatient and unforgiving fan base will only go along with a process for so long without results.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,831
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Post by cdj on Dec 18, 2022 11:48:10 GMT -5
We will see how long this lasts, but my 2 cents (go easy on me, I'm a newer poster)... I don't like the direction the Red Sox are going, but that's mostly because I'll always be attached to the magical 2018 season and its players. It is sad to see them all gone or about to be gone in such a short time frame considering their youth, and unless Devers gets extended none will become true Red Sox legends. That being said, I think I understand what is trying to be accomplished here and the GM came in at an awkward juncture for the Sox's young star players. The common fan narrative is that the Sox don't want to spend money (despite always being in the top 5 of payroll) and that the GM being a Rays disciple means they want to operate cheaply. But the reality is they want to spend money, they just have a perception that they don't want to be hamstrung by David Price/Chris Sale sized contracts, even at the cost of alienating fans in a buyers market by losing marquee names. Boston already has a "love me or hate me" sort of reputation with players, so without swinging a big hammer in free agency and struggling to win, they are starting to see players decline them vs. similar offers elsewhere. The model I think the GM and the team wants is similar to the Atlanta Braves pre-2022 off-season. The Braves identified a bit of a market edge for a few years by locking up young talent at team-friendly deals before they get too big for their britches and demand top dollar. The Braves were able to sign Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris and Strider early, and found fair market value for Olson. They lost Freddie Freeman in the process which burned many fans, but Freeman by that point was a product of the free market demanding top dollar. Unfortunately for this GM and the fans, Betts, Bogaerts, Devers (and to an extent Benintendi had he stayed healthy and not dumped in a trade) were already established or just enough established to know their value and hold out for free agency. There was no lowballing or getting in early, and I think Mookie especially had an influence on these crop of guys to hold out for their true free market worth. When the next crop of guys begin to establish themselves (possibly Casas, Mayer, Raffaela, Yorke et. al) I think we will see the GM make a big push to get them under early contracts and avoid the awkward "I want $300 million" conversations. Unfortunately, with the way the market is changing, I think more and more young players are going to hold out and let the market determine their worth. It's all fine and good and the GM is a smart man. But so was Sam Hinkie. A big market team with an impatient and unforgiving fan base will only go along with a process for so long without results. I think this post is money in the bank. Well thought out.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 18, 2022 12:10:38 GMT -5
We will see how long this lasts, but my 2 cents (go easy on me, I'm a newer poster)... I don't like the direction the Red Sox are going, but that's mostly because I'll always be attached to the magical 2018 season and its players. It is sad to see them all gone or about to be gone in such a short time frame considering their youth, and unless Devers gets extended none will become true Red Sox legends. That being said, I think I understand what is trying to be accomplished here and the GM came in at an awkward juncture for the Sox's young star players. The common fan narrative is that the Sox don't want to spend money (despite always being in the top 5 of payroll) and that the GM being a Rays disciple means they want to operate cheaply. But the reality is they want to spend money, they just have a perception that they don't want to be hamstrung by David Price/Chris Sale sized contracts, even at the cost of alienating fans in a buyers market by losing marquee names. Boston already has a "love me or hate me" sort of reputation with players, so without swinging a big hammer in free agency and struggling to win, they are starting to see players decline them vs. similar offers elsewhere. The model I think the GM and the team wants is similar to the Atlanta Braves pre-2022 off-season. The Braves identified a bit of a market edge for a few years by locking up young talent at team-friendly deals before they get too big for their britches and demand top dollar. The Braves were able to sign Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris and Strider early, and found fair market value for Olson. They lost Freddie Freeman in the process which burned many fans, but Freeman by that point was a product of the free market demanding top dollar. Unfortunately for this GM and the fans, Betts, Bogaerts, Devers (and to an extent Benintendi had he stayed healthy and not dumped in a trade) were already established or just enough established to know their value and hold out for free agency. There was no lowballing or getting in early, and I think Mookie especially had an influence on these crop of guys to hold out for their true free market worth. When the next crop of guys begin to establish themselves (possibly Casas, Mayer, Raffaela, Yorke et. al) I think we will see the GM make a big push to get them under early contracts and avoid the awkward "I want $300 million" conversations. Unfortunately, with the way the market is changing, I think more and more young players are going to hold out and let the market determine their worth. It's all fine and good and the GM is a smart man. But so was Sam Hinkie. A big market team with an impatient and unforgiving fan base will only go along with a process for so long without results. This may be the stupidest post in the history of Internet message boards. Kidding! Good job, Carita. I think where a lot of the Bloom discussion misses the mark is when people evaluate the WAR he has brought in vs. the dollars spent and the WAR he has shipped out. That analysis doesn't work for me because it doesn't capture the unusual nature of his performance here. He had one year where everything he did worked and we got to within two games of the WS. Then he had a season where nothing worked and his moves were incoherent. Unfortunately, he followed that up with an off-season in which he lost the star SS and his big acquisitions were an overpriced closer and an expensive guy who's a big question mark because he's never seen The Show. Before anyone brings up, "Yeah, but we finished last in 2020 too," I'll reiterate that I don't care about the 2020 season, other than to say I'm glad it got us Marcelo Mayer.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 18, 2022 14:43:41 GMT -5
First and foremost, I agree with the team's overall philosophy and direction under Bloom. As a fan, I would prefer to have a team that can compete every single year and win more on the aggregate than having a team that burns brighter in the short term but then gets stuck in the doldrums for a few years until it's time for the next push. I believe the only way to have a team that can compete every single year is to build through the farm. Free agent acquisitions are of course important too, but for the 29/30 teams that care about the luxury tax threshold, you can't realistically field a competitive team year just via free agency, even if you have a knack for spending efficiently. You need surplus value from young, controllable players. Free agent acquisitions are useful to round out the roster and add value in positions of need, but you need a foundation to build on.
The Red Sox had the worst farm system in the majors when Bloom took over. Given that a productive farm is a key component of sustainable success, then, it makes sense that Bloom has focused on building up the farm system, even sometimes to the detriment of the major league team. Some may not like this approach, and that's legitimate, but let's acknowledge that even in the boom and bust model you need a strong farm to graduate a young core in order to open your competitive window. The major difference from a more sustainable model is that the latter requires that you not go "all in" with moves that deplete the farm to maximize the quality of the major league team during a competitive window. It doesn't mean that you can't justify making moves to help the present team at the expense of future teams. It just means that you shouldn't weigh this year more than other years when deciding whether a move is worth it.
I am willing to be patient and trust the process provided the direction makes sense. As a result, I have generally been less critical of Bloom's moves and non-moves than others. Some of the loudest fans don't understand what Bloom is trying to do in the first place, but I acknowledge that most, especially on this forum, probably understand the goal but have simply lost patience over time. The breaking point could have been trading or not re-signing a favorite player. It could have been the rough season in 2020, or the 2022 that stung enough to forget 2021. That's all valid. I am just willing to delay gratification since I believe the return will be worth it.
I am not going to relitigate every single transaction in this post or attempt to preempt criticism by covering every nook and cranny of his tenure. I am not going to be able to convince people that we got a decent return for Mookie Betts. I'm not even going to get into "eye for talent" stuff, because I think the jury is out on that. I am also not here to tell you that Bloom has not made mistakes in my eyes. If I were in charge, we would not have gone over the LT in 2022, for example. The general approach, though, has made sense to me and seems to be furthering Bloom's (and my) goal for the franchise.
For example, I absolutely agree with his emphasis on keeping the books clean. In a boom and bust model, you can tolerate some albatross contracts. Let's imagine you are at the start of a 4-5 year window of contention which you expect to be followed with a long rebuild. You might be willing to sign a star to an 8 year deal with high albatross risk, for example, because you know you're getting maximum value for that player right when your young core has opened your competitive window. It's not the end of the world to have some bad contracts on the books when the team isn't going to be competing anyway. Because most other teams across MLB are booming and busting, those teams will therefore tend to value elite free agents more highly than teams that are aiming for sustainable success. This is why Bloom has been unwilling to make a Dombrowskian splash and set the market for a top guy. It simply makes no sense for us to value a given FA more highly than other high-payroll boom-and-bust teams. The pursuit of "value" has been much maligned, but that's the way to go in a sustainable success model. We might not get our absolute first choice free agents, but we will get guys on our terms, meaning they are much more likely to help the team now and going forward.
This also ties into carita's point above about the Sox likely wanting to lock up young stars, but Bloom simply being too late to get that done for members of the previous core. They were already extremely expensive and already were unlikely to forego free agency without a free agency-esque offer. As I discussed in the last paragraph, though, the Red Sox likely *should not* be pursuing FAs who will be overpaid relative to the value they provide. Therefore, I entirely agree that the Red Sox should be preferentially sign Braves-esque extensions of their young stars before they get expensive versus holding them until free agency and trying to make a move then. So, it's not that the Sox will bargain bin shop for all eternity and will never have truly elite players; they will have truly elite players, but they will mostly be homegrown, not FA acquisitions. People are pillorying Bloom for not getting Betts, X, and (preemptively) Devers signed, but at this point doing so would be antithetical to what he's trying to build here. If they want a Borasian FA deal, as is their right, they should pursue that, and the Sox should likely not be the high bidder. I think they need to make their best offer to Devers and then trade him when he in all likelihood says no. Whitlock's extension was a great sign, but Casas is the next test of the concept. If he looks like a stud in 2023, I want to see him extended ASAP.
This post has already gone on too long, so I'm going to end it here. In summary, contrary to popular belief, Bloom does have a plan; it's the very same one he's communicated clearly from the beginning: namely, building a sustainable contender. He's also stuck to his plan well, even when that required taking some flak from the fans and sports media. You have to crack a few eggs to make an omelette, after all. I don't think he's in as much danger of losing his job as some might want to think, but I can only hope he's given enough time to see his vision through.
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Post by manfred on Dec 18, 2022 14:55:16 GMT -5
I don’t want to get into this too much but to say that those who say the plan is to build the system and compete “every year” seem really to mean compete every year starting in a few years. They don’t (at the moment) look especially competitive this year. So that would be 3 of 4 years. That is impossible to distinguish from a classic “bust” period — except that if they are bad this year, it’ll be a longer bust than any in the 2000s.
So the plan is to start the clock 5 years into the administration. *Then* will be the consistently competitive team.
This, too, with a lower bar than ever in baseball history for “competitive.” You can conceivably finish fourth in the AL East and be a playoff team.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 18, 2022 15:19:51 GMT -5
I don’t want to get into this too much but to say that those who say the plan is to build the system and compete “every year” seem really to mean compete every year starting in a few years. They don’t (at the moment) look especially competitive this year. So that would be 3 of 4 years. That is impossible to distinguish from a classic “bust” period — except that if they are bad this year, it’ll be a longer bust than any in the 2000s. So the plan is to start the clock 5 years into the administration. *Then* will be the consistently competitive team. This, too, with a lower bar than ever in baseball history for “competitive.” You can conceivably finish fourth in the AL East and be a playoff team. I won’t speak for others but to me the plan seems to be to compete every year starting in 2021 while rebuilding the farm pipeline. So in my eyes, 2022 very obviously didn’t go according to plan, but even despite a disappointing offseason so far I still believe the team can be competitive in 2023. I do agree that the bar for being competitive is now lower, but personally I want the team aiming for that lower bar (make the playoffs) at this time, because to go for the high bar level (build a top 3ish team in talent) would require stripping the farm, and there is no guarantee of success even if they do that. Separately, something I see the FO doing is setting their price on each guy and not budging off of that (as opposed to say Dombrowski who set his mind on the players he wanted and didn’t budge on the regardless of price). If the market rate for superstars has now changed, I want the Red Sox to adapt to it and build with that in mind because I want a team with stars and that keeps their stars. Even if the other approach might also work.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 18, 2022 15:29:22 GMT -5
I don’t want to get into this too much but to say that those who say the plan is to build the system and compete “every year” seem really to mean compete every year starting in a few years. They don’t (at the moment) look especially competitive this year. So that would be 3 of 4 years. That is impossible to distinguish from a classic “bust” period — except that if they are bad this year, it’ll be a longer bust than any in the 2000s. So the plan is to start the clock 5 years into the administration. *Then* will be the consistently competitive team. This, too, with a lower bar than ever in baseball history for “competitive.” You can conceivably finish fourth in the AL East and be a playoff team. The worst thing that could have happened with this ownership is the expanded playoffs. There is no urgency to field a top contender when you can just sneak into the playoffs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2022 15:40:00 GMT -5
I don’t want to get into this too much but to say that those who say the plan is to build the system and compete “every year” seem really to mean compete every year starting in a few years. They don’t (at the moment) look especially competitive this year. So that would be 3 of 4 years. That is impossible to distinguish from a classic “bust” period — except that if they are bad this year, it’ll be a longer bust than any in the 2000s. So the plan is to start the clock 5 years into the administration. *Then* will be the consistently competitive team. This, too, with a lower bar than ever in baseball history for “competitive.” You can conceivably finish fourth in the AL East and be a playoff team. The worst thing that could have happened with this ownership is the expanded playoffs. There is no urgency to field a top contender when you can just sneak into the playoffs. I get that a 78 win team can now in the World Series while a 111 win team can get knocked out in the first round, but I dont think aiming for the lower/lowest bar is the way to go. You shouldn't have to have the only path to be to spring 4 upsets to win the World Series. As it was, in 2021 the Sox had to spring 2 upsets and were trying to spring a 3rd before reality hit, that Houston was better. And the 2021 team wasn't even a bad team, more of an upper 80s win team that overachieved to win 92. I liked it when Theo set the goal as 95 wins every year. That should be the sustainable goal of excellence every year. Win 90 - 95 and hope the law of averages rides with you in the post season. The Yankees have been averaging over 90 the past five years and for a good stretch longer if you go back further. If they keep doing it, as it appears they will, sooner or later they ate going to go to the Series and potentially win it. Same with the Dodgers who technically did in 2020. And so will the Mets who look like they could be a juggernaut over the next 5 years and they got Baty and Alvarez on the way. There will always be 2022 Phillies type teams who catch lightning in a bottle (2013 Red Sox are a prime example), but I like my team built with the odds in their favor, even if it doesn't always result in a championship.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 18, 2022 16:05:37 GMT -5
I get what the plan is supposed to be - "a perennial contender," "a player development machine," and the "end of the up and down roller coaster years." I was told that this off-season, with all that excess money off the books, would finally be the year where we'd see Bloom & Co. really start to execute it. He started with $90+ million in open budget available and a stocked free agent class - not to mention the Red Sox organization was flush with its high revenues and the additional $60-90 million each team received after the new CBA was signed via the Disney, Apple and streaming deals.
So, I'll wait for the off-season to end and see how this team looks compared to the AL East and Houston. And then I wait for the 2023 season to end and see what the fruits of the Front Office's labors yield before I judge.
But I am so done with the constant stream of excuses for and from this management group. Enough. We're in year 4 of this regime. Time to deliver on the promises. Because all I've seen up to now are more rides on the roller coaster.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 18, 2022 16:25:19 GMT -5
I’m pretty disgusted but I’m not sure it’s all Bl**m’s fault. Have the owners suddenly shown a reluctance to spend money? Since when can’t the Red Sox hang when it comes to the top free agents? Ever since they signed Manny Ramirez, I’ve had the expectation that they would try and get the best players available. For a team with the highest ticket prices in the game(and near the top in revenues), this should be a reasonable expectation.
But it seems clear that they are NOT trying to put the best product on the field that they can. They appear content to address a last place team by making some fringe moves on the edges instead. There is no imagination or urgency here at all. How many more lost seasons are they willing to tolerate?
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 18, 2022 16:29:31 GMT -5
I get what the plan is supposed to be - "a perennial contender," "a player development machine," and the "end of the up and down roller coaster years." I was told that this off-season, with all that excess money off the books, would finally be the year where we'd see Bloom & Co. really start to execute it. He started with $90+ million in open budget available and a stocked free agent class - not to mention the Red Sox organization was flush with its high revenues and the additional $60-90 million each team received after the new CBA was signed via the Disney, Apple and streaming deals. So, I'll wait for the off-season to end and see how this team looks compared to the AL East and Houston. And then I wait for the 2023 season to end and see what the fruits of the Front Office's labors yield before I judge. But I am so done with the constant stream of excuses for and from this management group. Enough. We're in year 4 of this regime. Time to deliver on the promises. Because all I've seen up to now are more rides on the roller coaster. For the past three years folks have been complaining about Bloom signing "bargain bin" guys like Wacha and Hill and Richards on one year deals, to which I and others replied "Bloom has had no budget. After the 2022 season is the first time he'll have a large chunk of money off the books, so that's the point where he'll really put his stamp on the team instead of building around the margins." And, sure enough, we're seeing that vision. He's clearly not willing to overpay for elite players and he so far hasn't been willing to trade valuable prospects for major leaguers. So far it looks like his intention is to sign guys on his terms and build through through the farm. The farm looks like it's finally ready to start paying dividends, but we're in the early stages of that. I think the team will challenge for a WC spot in 2023, assuming Bloom at least fills the middle IF and RF holes with reasonable players. It takes more than three years to take a terrible farm and turn it into a "player development machine" even if you tank, though. We're not nearly there yet.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2022 16:31:56 GMT -5
I’m pretty disgusted but I’m not sure it’s all Bl**m’s fault. Have the owners suddenly shown a reluctance to spend money? Since when can’t the Red Sox hang when it comes to the top free agents? Ever since they signed Manny Ramirez, I’ve had the expectation that they would try and get the best players available. For a team with the highest ticket prices in the game(and near the top in revenues), this should be a reasonable expectation. But it seems clear that they are NOT trying to put the best product on the field that they can. They appear content to address a last place team by making some fringe moves on the edges instead. There is no imagination or urgency here at all. How many most lost seasons are they willing to tolerate? The Henry group didnt sign Manny. That was Duquette and that was under John Harrington who wasn't known to be loose with dollars. I think the purchase of Manny was to prop up the team for sale.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 18, 2022 16:48:43 GMT -5
I’m pretty disgusted but I’m not sure it’s all Bl**m’s fault. Have the owners suddenly shown a reluctance to spend money? Since when can’t the Red Sox hang when it comes to the top free agents? Ever since they signed Manny Ramirez, I’ve had the expectation that they would try and get the best players available. For a team with the highest ticket prices in the game(and near the top in revenues), this should be a reasonable expectation. But it seems clear that they are NOT trying to put the best product on the field that they can. They appear content to address a last place team by making some fringe moves on the edges instead. There is no imagination or urgency here at all. How many most lost seasons are they willing to tolerate? The Henry group didnt sign Manny. That was Duquette and that was under John Harrington who wasn't known to be loose with dollars. I think the purchase of Manny was to prop up the team for sale. Ok. But ever since 2000ish, I’ve had the expectation that the Sox would be among the top few teams in payroll. And they generally have been. But now they seem to be content to just pass on every top-tier free agent on the market(while subsequently watching their homegrown stars leave). It’s a recipe for disaster. The fact that they have nothing significant in the farm system to bail them out short-term means that they NEED to be more aggressive in free agency now. Otherwise they will toil in mediocrity for years with no clear direction.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 18, 2022 17:11:29 GMT -5
I get what the plan is supposed to be - "a perennial contender," "a player development machine," and the "end of the up and down roller coaster years." I was told that this off-season, with all that excess money off the books, would finally be the year where we'd see Bloom & Co. really start to execute it. He started with $90+ million in open budget available and a stocked free agent class - not to mention the Red Sox organization was flush with its high revenues and the additional $60-90 million each team received after the new CBA was signed via the Disney, Apple and streaming deals. So, I'll wait for the off-season to end and see how this team looks compared to the AL East and Houston. And then I wait for the 2023 season to end and see what the fruits of the Front Office's labors yield before I judge. But I am so done with the constant stream of excuses for and from this management group. Enough. We're in year 4 of this regime. Time to deliver on the promises. Because all I've seen up to now are more rides on the roller coaster. For the past three years folks have been complaining about Bloom signing "bargain bin" guys like Wacha and Hill and Richards on one year deals, to which I and others replied "Bloom has had no budget. After the 2022 season is the first time he'll have a large chunk of money off the books, so that's the point where he'll really put his stamp on the team instead of building around the margins." And, sure enough, we're seeing that vision. He's clearly not willing to overpay for elite players and he so far hasn't been willing to trade valuable prospects for major leaguers. So far it looks like his intention is to sign guys on his terms and build through through the farm. The farm looks like it's finally ready to start paying dividends, but we're in the early stages of that. I think the team will challenge for a WC spot in 2023, assuming Bloom at least fills the middle IF and RF holes with reasonable players. It takes more than three years to take a terrible farm and turn it into a "player development machine" even if you tank, though. We're not nearly there yet.
but the farm was not empty, despite the hagiography. It was just very, very young. The players Bloom inherited included Bello, Casas, Mata, Walter, Paulino and. former top 5 (and top 100) prospects Duran and Dalbec. Those guys have come to the forefront, and the team has had 3 years to add more. We’ll see in the next couple years if the Bloom regime picks and Intl signings add up to legit depth or they’re just more bodies. Mayer was a slam dunk. The true “building up of the farm” is everyone else. TBA.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2022 17:20:12 GMT -5
The Henry group didnt sign Manny. That was Duquette and that was under John Harrington who wasn't known to be loose with dollars. I think the purchase of Manny was to prop up the team for sale. Ok. But ever since 2000ish, Iâve had the expectation that the Sox would be among the top few teams in payroll. And they generally have been. But now they seem to be content to just pass on every top-tier free agent on the market(while subsequently watching their homegrown stars leave). Itâs a recipe for disaster. The fact that they have nothing significant in the farm system to bail them out short-term means that they NEED to be more aggressive in free agency now. Otherwise they will toil in mediocrity for years with no clear direction. The Red Sox spend money but they're no longer at the top and they've yet committed to a long term deal that's steep. They chose not to give Mookie market money and the extension offer they gave a loyal franchise player was embarrassing and insulting and they deserved the result they got. A big test will be Devers who surely is looking for market value. The farm isnt where it should be yet. When it is they should be signing elite players to out them over the top, so I wasn't upset they didnt give 10 year 300 million dollar deals out. However their failure to secure Bogaerts and have their backup plan be a guy whose shoulder might not withstand the rigors of the position is dubious. Their inability to fill an obvious hole in RF last year, the way they let the pen fester, and now they have a gaping hole on the middle infield and a hole in RF if Verdugo isnt a real option to handle it. They had 90 million to burn through and yet they did nothing to improve the rotation and have let their lineup degenerate into mediocrity. They lack power and speed. The RH bats in the lineup are Kiké, Story, and that's about it. It's terrible. Justin Turner is no star but he's about the last option left and I have no faith that they even sign him despite all the available funds. They've let marquis players leave without recouping value, yet if their aim is to fill the farm system they have whiffed on prospects acquired in trades and last year failed to cash in on X, JDM. Eovaldi and Wacha so they could hang onto a slim chance of barely making the playoffs and failed to get under the luxury tax limit. I'm glad they have the system in a better place, but with the cash they have it's derelict of duty to leave a team with so many holes. Their depth is thin too so if there are injuries, which there will be, they're in trouble. We were told by Bloom his plan was to get two #2 type starters, 7 to 9 new players, and the money was there to spend, but he badly misread the market, so other than missing out on fringy starters like Heaney and Elfin, he got nobody. Yet here we are. All the players of consequence are gone, they still have holes galore and we're hoping he strikes gold while dumpster diving. The national guys are ripping him to shreds. In the winter loser's part of the conversation on MLB network radio When deciphering the Sox moves, the host said, I just can't....move on to the next team." His is not the only opinion I've heard. They're just opinions, but if gives you a sense of how the Sox are looked at nationally by guys who aren't too close to the team to have any real bias either way.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 18, 2022 17:55:02 GMT -5
I think Chaim Bloom is a thoughtful, professional, baseball guy. I am personally rooting for him to be successful for those reasons, as much as my allegiance to this club. FSG inherited a gold mine and with good stewardship and luck they have had success any Sox fan appreciates.
As I think about the last 4-6 weeks, I have come to the realization that the dismissal of Dombrowski and the addition of Bloom were directly connected by FSG's vision of how to run a club and not spend big on individual players. I am sorry, if i am late to that party. They really have done run it that way for 20 years, with a few exceptions. They went after some big names early, like Texiera, but for the most part they retained key players when those players gave them a bit of a discount. Papi....Pedroia to name a few. I really shouldn't be shocked with the current state, but I kind of am.
chrisfromnc has made the point about Hernandez. And i think it is very legitimate. He was told something, at the risk of costing himself millions of dollars, one can assume, with information on the current FA market. It really makes me question how they are going about their business, with no major FA addition.
In the 90's into the 2000's, the Atlanta Braves won 14 division titles in 15 years. For that incredible run, they won 1 World Series. It speaks to the nature of baseball randomness. There was FA then as well. They did everything they could to keep them together, and the players did also, because it gave them a competitive advantage. Maybe in some way the dollars are different now, i mean, I don't know. I would concede that argument to someone who is smarter than I and could make that point, but i could argue that the overall market, compared to then, favors the Sox dramatically.
Which leads me to the legacy component of running a club. More than 1 seven year old kid in 2013 got hooked on Sox baseball and decided Xander Bogaerts was his favorite player. Maybe his old man, who isn't local or rich, got the money to take him to a game the next season. Picture 15, 16 years later that kid scrounging up the money to take his old man to Xander's last home game. Full Circle. The kind of happening that creates legacy that is remembered for decades to follow. And it is gone, directly because of the way they did their business with him to signing with the Pads. The Sox were so fortunate to have a club have so much production from the farm in from 2010 to 2020. It made for some tough financial long term decisions. And out of those decisions, we have nobody left, except Devers, who would have to be blown away at this point to sign.
We can talk about Boom and Bust, and big contracts being a pre-cursor to underperformance of a teams record (notstarboard, that isn't a direct indictment of your post, I think your posts are well thought out and certainly, very considerate of others). But as a big market team, the Sox are ceding ground to their competition if we have the mentality that we can turnover players at will, or mitigate high costs by signing our young guys earlier, a condition that carries its own risk level, and run the club in avoidance of that. We should be taking advantage of our financial strength, and this offseason, we haven't. There were some really great players available.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 18, 2022 18:12:16 GMT -5
For the past three years folks have been complaining about Bloom signing "bargain bin" guys like Wacha and Hill and Richards on one year deals, to which I and others replied "Bloom has had no budget. After the 2022 season is the first time he'll have a large chunk of money off the books, so that's the point where he'll really put his stamp on the team instead of building around the margins." And, sure enough, we're seeing that vision. He's clearly not willing to overpay for elite players and he so far hasn't been willing to trade valuable prospects for major leaguers. So far it looks like his intention is to sign guys on his terms and build through through the farm. The farm looks like it's finally ready to start paying dividends, but we're in the early stages of that. I think the team will challenge for a WC spot in 2023, assuming Bloom at least fills the middle IF and RF holes with reasonable players. It takes more than three years to take a terrible farm and turn it into a "player development machine" even if you tank, though. We're not nearly there yet.
but the farm was not empty, despite the hagiography. It was just very, very young. The players Bloom inherited included Bello, Casas, Mata, Walter, Paulino and. former top 5 (and top 100) prospects Duran and Dalbec. Those guys have come to the forefront, and the team has had 3 years to add more. We’ll see in the next couple years if the Bloom regime picks and Intl signings add up to legit depth or they’re just more bodies. Mayer was a slam dunk. The true “building up of the farm” is everyone else. TBA. No one is arguing that it was empty. It was just bad; that's apparent from the fact that the Sox haven't gotten a single MLB regular from the farm since Devers 2017. Some of the lack of graduates is the effect of youth as you called out, but a lot of that just reflects a poor system and the normal variance of prospects, especially for young ones. Some of the DD guys have impressed and shot up boards (e.g. Bello), some have risen and fallen (e.g. Jimenez), some have disappointed (e.g. Dalbec), some started off with lots of hype but never got there (e.g. Groome). I don't have reason to think there's been a bias one way or the other in those outcomes, or that the system was misunderstood and actually full of amazing pieces.
The reason those guys have come to the forefront lately is in large part because they have been incubating for much longer. Proximity is a factor in prospect rankings, and so the remaining DD guys with promise will skew towards more advanced levels and higher rankings, while the DD guys that bombed out are either out of the rankings or not in the system any more.
I agree that the jury is still out on Bloom's "eye for talent" in terms of international FA, rule 4 and 5 draftees, waiver claims, and players acquired via trades. With that said, when I'm talking about building the farm I'm talking about making an effort to accumulate prospects. This includes good drafts, trading guys and/or acquiring bad contracts for prospects, not trading top prospects for major leaguers (especially rentals), being less amenable to signing QO'd FAs, not signing albatrosses that may one day need to be offloaded using prospect depth, etc. Whether or not Bloom has been acquiring a good collection of prospects, the strategy is still clear. Dombrowski did almost none of this, as he was in pure boom mode.
19 of the top 30 guys on the SP board are Bloom guys, and while some DD guys have either graduated or busted at this point, the benefit of proximity in the rankings is not on Bloom's side. It's definitely not just the DD guys getting older, Mayer falling into Bloom's lap, and the farm ranking jumping like 20 places as a result. Hopefully the system continues to get meaningful additions and starts to crank out contributors before long.
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Post by keninten on Dec 18, 2022 19:01:13 GMT -5
First and foremost, I agree with the team's overall philosophy and direction under Bloom. As a fan, I would prefer to have a team that can compete every single year and win more on the aggregate than having a team that burns brighter in the short term but then gets stuck in the doldrums for a few years until it's time for the next push. I believe the only way to have a team that can compete every single year is to build through the farm. Free agent acquisitions are of course important too, but for the 29/30 teams that care about the luxury tax threshold, you can't realistically field a competitive team year just via free agency, even if you have a knack for spending efficiently. You need surplus value from young, controllable players. Free agent acquisitions are useful to round out the roster and add value in positions of need, but you need a foundation to build on. The Red Sox had the worst farm system in the majors when Bloom took over. Given that a productive farm is a key component of sustainable success, then, it makes sense that Bloom has focused on building up the farm system, even sometimes to the detriment of the major league team. Some may not like this approach, and that's legitimate, but let's acknowledge that even in the boom and bust model you need a strong farm to graduate a young core in order to open your competitive window. The major difference from a more sustainable model is that the latter requires that you not go "all in" with moves that deplete the farm to maximize the quality of the major league team during a competitive window. It doesn't mean that you can't justify making moves to help the present team at the expense of future teams. It just means that you shouldn't weigh this year more than other years when deciding whether a move is worth it. I am willing to be patient and trust the process provided the direction makes sense. As a result, I have generally been less critical of Bloom's moves and non-moves than others. Some of the loudest fans don't understand what Bloom is trying to do in the first place, but I acknowledge that most, especially on this forum, probably understand the goal but have simply lost patience over time. The breaking point could have been trading or not re-signing a favorite player. It could have been the rough season in 2020, or the 2022 that stung enough to forget 2021. That's all valid. I am just willing to delay gratification since I believe the return will be worth it. I am not going to relitigate every single transaction in this post or attempt to preempt criticism by covering every nook and cranny of his tenure. I am not going to be able to convince people that we got a decent return for Mookie Betts. I'm not even going to get into "eye for talent" stuff, because I think the jury is out on that. I am also not here to tell you that Bloom has not made mistakes in my eyes. If I were in charge, we would not have gone over the LT in 2022, for example. The general approach, though, has made sense to me and seems to be furthering Bloom's (and my) goal for the franchise. For example, I absolutely agree with his emphasis on keeping the books clean. In a boom and bust model, you can tolerate some albatross contracts. Let's imagine you are at the start of a 4-5 year window of contention which you expect to be followed with a long rebuild. You might be willing to sign a star to an 8 year deal with high albatross risk, for example, because you know you're getting maximum value for that player right when your young core has opened your competitive window. It's not the end of the world to have some bad contracts on the books when the team isn't going to be competing anyway. Because most other teams across MLB are booming and busting, those teams will therefore tend to value elite free agents more highly than teams that are aiming for sustainable success. This is why Bloom has been unwilling to make a Dombrowskian splash and set the market for a top guy. It simply makes no sense for us to value a given FA more highly than other high-payroll boom-and-bust teams. The pursuit of "value" has been much maligned, but that's the way to go in a sustainable success model. We might not get our absolute first choice free agents, but we will get guys on our terms, meaning they are much more likely to help the team now and going forward. This also ties into carita's point above about the Sox likely wanting to lock up young stars, but Bloom simply being too late to get that done for members of the previous core. They were already extremely expensive and already were unlikely to forego free agency without a free agency-esque offer. As I discussed in the last paragraph, though, the Red Sox likely *should not* be pursuing FAs who will be overpaid relative to the value they provide. Therefore, I entirely agree that the Red Sox should be preferentially sign Braves-esque extensions of their young stars before they get expensive versus holding them until free agency and trying to make a move then. So, it's not that the Sox will bargain bin shop for all eternity and will never have truly elite players; they will have truly elite players, but they will mostly be homegrown, not FA acquisitions. People are pillorying Bloom for not getting Betts, X, and (preemptively) Devers signed, but at this point doing so would be antithetical to what he's trying to build here. If they want a Borasian FA deal, as is their right, they should pursue that, and the Sox should likely not be the high bidder. I think they need to make their best offer to Devers and then trade him when he in all likelihood says no. Whitlock's extension was a great sign, but Casas is the next test of the concept. If he looks like a stud in 2023, I want to see him extended ASAP. This post has already gone on too long, so I'm going to end it here. In summary, contrary to popular belief, Bloom does have a plan; it's the very same one he's communicated clearly from the beginning: namely, building a sustainable contender. He's also stuck to his plan well, even when that required taking some flak from the fans and sports media. You have to crack a few eggs to make an omelette, after all. I don't think he's in as much danger of losing his job as some might want to think, but I can only hope he's given enough time to see his vision through. Well said. When I play anything it`s all about winning. As a Sox fan I don`t mind seeing them rebuild. I actually have wished many times to see a total rebuild instead of going about it half-assed. Don`t mind seeing the team go through growing pains when I see a plan down the road starting to develop. I`m in Braves country and have never liked the team as much as the Sox but they have me pretty excited watching them where they are now. They have been able to do it while winning and I think the Sox may surprise some fans with how good they get. They have to start with a solid base and I see that happening. Going over the luxury tax and not trading Bogaerts seems like mistakes but who am I to know. I`ll give them the benefit of doubt. The way other teams have spent gives me more hope down the road.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 18, 2022 21:19:05 GMT -5
I don’t want to get into this too much but to say that those who say the plan is to build the system and compete “every year” seem really to mean compete every year starting in a few years. They don’t (at the moment) look especially competitive this year. So that would be 3 of 4 years. That is impossible to distinguish from a classic “bust” period — except that if they are bad this year, it’ll be a longer bust than any in the 2000s. So the plan is to start the clock 5 years into the administration. *Then* will be the consistently competitive team. This, too, with a lower bar than ever in baseball history for “competitive.” You can conceivably finish fourth in the AL East and be a playoff team. I won’t speak for others but to me the plan seems to be to compete every year starting in 2021 while rebuilding the farm pipeline. So in my eyes, 2022 very obviously didn’t go according to plan, but even despite a disappointing offseason so far I still believe the team can be competitive in 2023. I do agree that the bar for being competitive is now lower, but personally I want the team aiming for that lower bar (make the playoffs) at this time, because to go for the high bar level (build a top 3ish team in talent) would require stripping the farm, and there is no guarantee of success even if they do that. Separately, something I see the FO doing is setting their price on each guy and not budging off of that (as opposed to say Dombrowski who set his mind on the players he wanted and didn’t budge on the regardless of price). If the market rate for superstars has now changed, I want the Red Sox to adapt to it and build with that in mind because I want a team with stars and that keeps their stars. Even if the other approach might also work.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 19, 2022 2:46:32 GMT -5
Here is a complete list of teams that signed one of the 10 biggest contracts in each of the last two seasons:
Texas Rangers
New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox
This seems relevant to the endlessly repeated claim that Bloom "never signs top free agents" or they act like a small market team or whatever.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 19, 2022 7:44:49 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 19, 2022 7:59:57 GMT -5
The worst thing that could have happened with this ownership is the expanded playoffs. There is no urgency to field a top contender when you can just sneak into the playoffs. I get that a 78 win team can now in the World Series while a 111 win team can get knocked out in the first round, but I dont think aiming for the lower/lowest bar is the way to go. You shouldn't have to have the only path to be to spring 4 upsets to win the World Series. As it was, in 2021 the Sox had to spring 2 upsets and were trying to spring a 3rd before reality hit, that Houston was better. And the 2021 team wasn't even a bad team, more of an upper 80s win team that overachieved to win 92. I liked it when Theo set the goal as 95 wins every year. That should be the sustainable goal of excellence every year. Win 90 - 95 and hope the law of averages rides with you in the post season. The Yankees have been averaging over 90 the past five years and for a good stretch longer if you go back further. If they keep doing it, as it appears they will, sooner or later they ate going to go to the Series and potentially win it. Same with the Dodgers who technically did in 2020. And so will the Mets who look like they could be a juggernaut over the next 5 years and they got Baty and Alvarez on the way. There will always be 2022 Phillies type teams who catch lightning in a bottle (2013 Red Sox are a prime example), but I like my team built with the odds in their favor, even if it doesn't always result in a championship. No, it's not. One poster in here said it best. Its not that they're being cheap. Thats the wrong argument. They arent. They'll spend. But they would rather spend on multiple players for the price of one star and hope to hit big. But the days of paying top price for the top free agent on the market are done. Its just not in their philosophy anymore and I guess thats okay. Ultimately Chaim makes the trades and ownership writes the checks so they're in this together. The minor league system is improved but a lot of it was because guys like Casas and Bello developed and that was more DD than Bloom. I like what he's done in drafts but we'll see.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 19, 2022 8:35:09 GMT -5
"The Mets are spending heavily because owner Steve Cohen is pushing general manager Billy Eppler. The Padres keep adding stars because owner Peter Seidler empowers GM A.J. Preller. The Yankees’ Hal Steinbrenner extended himself to keep Aaron Judge. Even the Cubs’ Tom “Losses of Biblical Proportions” Ricketts awakened from a long slumber to authorize a $177 million agreement Saturday with shortstop Dansby Swanson.
The Red Sox under owners John Henry, Tom Werner and Co.? They’ve failed to react to a changing marketplace, one in which stars are getting decade-long deals. Dating back to Mookie Betts, the Sox owners have been averse to such contracts. They will need to adjust their philosophy to compete for top talent, including their own third baseman, Rafael Devers. Otherwise, they will need to trust Bloom to thread the needle, which he has not been successful at doing."
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Post by manfred on Dec 19, 2022 8:39:26 GMT -5
Folks can’t have it both ways: on the one hand, people say they are spending. Then there are arguments that ownership won’t let Bloom spend. Which is it? And… if excuses are necessary, the implication is he *would* do a good job given other conditions, which is pretty much admitting that under these conditions things aren’t going so well.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 19, 2022 8:48:40 GMT -5
Here is a complete list of teams that signed one of the 10 biggest contracts in each of the last two seasons: Texas Rangers
New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox This seems relevant to the endlessly repeated claim that Bloom "never signs top free agents" or they act like a small market team or whatever.
And here we go with arbitrary endpoints. Perhaps a bigger sample size? How about contract sizes overall in MLB compared to contracts during the Bloom regime and compare his outlays (and others') with actual results? Because results are how other CEOs are evaluated.
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