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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by incandenza on Jan 10, 2023 18:46:34 GMT -5
"acknowledges the relative riskiness of some guys (so yeah, Sale making 20 starts would be "average luck")" Did it account for Story? Put him at max. half season? Just wait until they get âunluckyâ and Paxton blows up like a Spinal Tap drummer. Why do you keep ignoring the pertinent point that I am ACKNOWLEDGING the relative riskiness of some guys, like Paxton. See comment above. And also the claim that I don't think they're especially injury-prone this year (arguably, unlike last year).
What's totally fair to say is that they got Story at a discount because of the injury risk with his elbow, and that that looks like a worse wager now. But now that that ship is sailed the question is how the rest of the team projects going forward. I would bet a fair amount of money that, e.g., they get more out of Kiké, Sale, and Paxton than they did last season.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jan 10, 2023 19:08:22 GMT -5
At what point would it be fair to say Bloom has failed at building major league depth? I’d say there is adequate depth when it comes to starters, albeit with injury question concerns, but the middle infield and outfield seem to be incredibly disappointing and thin as we wrap up Bloom’s 4th off-season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 20:51:10 GMT -5
It was assuming average injury luck, and acknowledges the relative riskiness of some guys (so year, Sale making 20 starts would be "average luck").
A two win improvement based on slightly better health is not terribly aggressive, I don't think, and is still achievable - simply based on how bad their luck was last year.
Of course there's no rule you can't be unlucky two years in a row...
I just think it is generous to call this luck. He was a TJ concern before they signed him. www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-teams-reportedly-are-fearful-of-signing-trevor-storySo you make your luck. He was a TJ concern according to these articles from teams who didn't give him a physical but not according to the doctors of the team which actually examined him and who reviewed his medical imaging. So I dunno. I know people want to point at one guy for everything, but in general I'm pro-trust-the-medical-experts when it comes to health.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 20:53:15 GMT -5
At what point would it be fair to say Bloom has failed at building major league depth? I’d say there is adequate depth when it comes to starters, albeit with injury question concerns, but the middle infield and outfield seem to be incredibly disappointing and thin as we wrap up Bloom’s 4th off-season. Maybe once the off-season ends and there's not depth? Let's say they sign a short stop. Aren't Arroyo and Valdez pretty great second base depth that they now have to fall back to?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 10, 2023 20:56:12 GMT -5
At what point would it be fair to say Bloom has failed at building major league depth? I’d say there is adequate depth when it comes to starters, albeit with injury question concerns, but the middle infield and outfield seem to be incredibly disappointing and thin as we wrap up Bloom’s 4th off-season. Maybe once the off-season ends and there's not depth? Let's say they sign a short stop. Aren't Arroyo and Valdez pretty great second base depth that they now have to fall back to? So what's their SS, CF, catching depth? Niko Goodrum?
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2023 20:56:56 GMT -5
He was a TJ concern according to these articles from teams who didn't give him a physical but not according to the doctors of the team which actually examined him and who reviewed his medical imaging. So I dunno. I know people want to point at one guy for everything, but in general I'm pro-trust-the-medical-experts when it comes to health. Well… how did our medical experts do vis-a-vis the others?
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jan 10, 2023 20:59:21 GMT -5
At what point would it be fair to say Bloom has failed at building major league depth? I’d say there is adequate depth when it comes to starters, albeit with injury question concerns, but the middle infield and outfield seem to be incredibly disappointing and thin as we wrap up Bloom’s 4th off-season. Maybe once the off-season ends and there's not depth? Let's say they sign a short stop. Aren't Arroyo and Valdez pretty great second base depth that they now have to fall back to? Im assuming any move that adds to the middle infield or outfield has to come from trades. Aren’t they just $3-4 million under the CBT threshold with the Devers extension and raise? It would be criminal to go over the CBT with this roster to sign Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 21:00:00 GMT -5
He was a TJ concern according to these articles from teams who didn't give him a physical but not according to the doctors of the team which actually examined him and who reviewed his medical imaging. So I dunno. I know people want to point at one guy for everything, but in general I'm pro-trust-the-medical-experts when it comes to health. Well… how did our medical experts do vis-a-vis the others? The other ones (outside of Colorado) didn't get to physical him so we'll never know!
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2023 21:02:53 GMT -5
Well… how did our medical experts do vis-a-vis the others? The other ones (outside of Colorado) didn't get to physical him so we'll never know! I mean… we know. Turns out the TJ people were right. Maybe the massive dropoff in velocity on his throws and pain in his elbow was warning enough?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 21:05:41 GMT -5
Maybe once the off-season ends and there's not depth? Let's say they sign a short stop. Aren't Arroyo and Valdez pretty great second base depth that they now have to fall back to? Im assuming any move that adds to the middle infield or outfield has to come from trades. Aren’t they just $3-4 million under the CBT threshold with the Devers extension and raise? It would be criminal to go over the CBT with this roster to sign Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias. It depends on how they allocate Devers' extension, they could split it such that they have $16M in room. I also doubt they would go over the CBT just for those guys but even if they did I don't think it would be such a big deal because they don't have to reset until next year and they could still do that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 21:10:07 GMT -5
Maybe once the off-season ends and there's not depth? Let's say they sign a short stop. Aren't Arroyo and Valdez pretty great second base depth that they now have to fall back to? So what's their SS, CF, catching depth? Niko Goodrum? Well they haven't signed a shortstop yet, but I think that's a matter of timing. If they had signed Andrus two weeks ago instead of a week from now once again I think the depth would be fine. Andrus would have been option 1, then Story option 2, then Arroyo/Kiké/Goodrum. CF I guess is Duran and then Rafaela which isn't awesome I've been hoping for another CF too but I'm less confident they get one, we'll see there. Ronaldo Hernandez is fine as a third catcher no? I mean there's plenty of near replacement level guys available for that role still. The whole point was the question asked was "When can we start complaining about lack of depth?" and my suggestion is "when the season starts" because if depth is the goal there's plenty of it available, even in free agency.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 21:14:16 GMT -5
One thing about Bloom is that he is a lot more risk tolerant than a lot of his detractors (the "he's afraid to sign a big name player" crowd) think, it just happens that he is comfortable with different types of risk. He has shown comfort with injury risk (see guys like Story and Paxton), performance risk (see guys like Bradley and the various other buy-low acquisitions) and positional fit risk (even if a guy doesn't fit the roster well, if he comes cheap enough, acquire him (see guys like Schwarber or Story), and even if a position on the depth chart is thin, don't acquire someone out of desperation (see not filling RF last year or MIF this year)). He would seemingly rather sign a risky player for cheap than pay a more reliable player more than what the models suggest he is owed. Similarly, he would seemingly rather wait the market out and see if he can pick up a guy for cheap than move more quickly for fear of losing the game of musical chairs. If I were to describe Bloom in one word, it would be "disciplined." That is not a value judgment (it has obviously worked out sometimes and not worked out other times), but a commentary on style. And it suggests that we may be waiting a while (perhaps into spring training) before the MIF holes get filled.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 21:15:05 GMT -5
The other ones (outside of Colorado) didn't get to physical him so we'll never know! I mean… we know. Turns out the TJ people were right. Maybe the massive dropoff in velocity on his throws and pain in his elbow was warning enough? Well, no, because we don't know what they would have said if they saw the same images as the Red Sox. The Red Sox might have been concerned about it too, then they saw the images that made them feel better about it.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 10, 2023 21:18:54 GMT -5
One thing about Bloom is that he is a lot more risk tolerant than a lot of his detractors (the "he's afraid to sign a big name player" crowd) think, it just happens that he is comfortable with different types of risk. He has shown comfort with injury risk (see guys like Story and Paxton), performance risk (see guys like Bradley and the various other buy-low acquisitions) and positional fit risk (even if a guy doesn't fit the roster well, if he comes cheap enough, acquire him (see guys like Schwarber or Story), and even if a position on the depth chart is thin, don't acquire someone out of desperation (see not filling RF last year or MIF this year)). He would seemingly rather sign a risky player for cheap than pay a more reliable player more than what the models suggest he is owed. Similarly, he would seemingly rather wait the market out and see if he can pick up a guy for cheap than move more quickly for fear of losing the game of musical chairs. If I were to describe Bloom in one word, it would be "disciplined." That is not a value judgment (it has obviously worked out sometimes and not worked out other times), but a commentary on style. And it suggests that we may be waiting a while (perhaps into spring training) before the MIF holes get filled. I agree with your assessment. He was disciplined last year. The problem with that approach is when you're willing to sacrifice a season to win a deal. He's disciplined this year too, hopefully it doesn't result in another last place finish.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 21:19:27 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 10, 2023 22:35:26 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start. Just to be clear on the point I'm making I agree with this statement but I don't think it'll end up that way. I don't really care that we have one of those guys instead of Hoy Park right now.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 11, 2023 2:30:57 GMT -5
One thing about Bloom is that he is a lot more risk tolerant than a lot of his detractors (the "he's afraid to sign a big name player" crowd) think, it just happens that he is comfortable with different types of risk. He has shown comfort with injury risk (see guys like Story and Paxton), performance risk (see guys like Bradley and the various other buy-low acquisitions) and positional fit risk (even if a guy doesn't fit the roster well, if he comes cheap enough, acquire him (see guys like Schwarber or Story), and even if a position on the depth chart is thin, don't acquire someone out of desperation (see not filling RF last year or MIF this year)). He would seemingly rather sign a risky player for cheap than pay a more reliable player more than what the models suggest he is owed. Similarly, he would seemingly rather wait the market out and see if he can pick up a guy for cheap than move more quickly for fear of losing the game of musical chairs. If I were to describe Bloom in one word, it would be "disciplined." That is not a value judgment (it has obviously worked out sometimes and not worked out other times), but a commentary on style. And it suggests that we may be waiting a while (perhaps into spring training) before the MIF holes get filled. I don't think he is any more risk tolerant than his detractors think. All these examples you site are the same for practically every GM and for any transactions that they may make. I think you explain his approach, which I have said before is probably more informed by his having been a part of the Rays organization, well. The question is whether a cautious approach results in more successful roster building. It you extrapolate his style's sample size out versus an an aggressive GM, there likely isn't going to be proof that it is, on either end. There seems to be more, IMO, of an adherence that a lot of his supporters think being cautious (or thoughtful) is a better way to do that. But setting the market on FA's, overpaying for stars, those have proven to be winning strategies in enough instances. Then there is the fact that waiting may limit your choices or hinder pivoting like in the recent injury event with Story. We are only 4-6 weeks from pitchers and catchers, it isn't optimal. Other teams are preparing for the season as well.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 11, 2023 12:23:10 GMT -5
A couple takeaways from the presser today:
- Tom Henry was adamant there are no plans to sell the team (though maybe this files under "what else is he gonna say"), but John Henry flying to the DR with a big contingent I think is a good sign - Bloom re-emphasized the notion that jmei alluded to above and others have mentioned, which is that they're going to be strict with the middle tier guys according to their valuation, and move on to someone else, but the team is willing to make the press for the guys they really want to keep/get (Devers and Yoshida I think are proof points this off-season)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 11, 2023 13:19:21 GMT -5
A couple takeaways from the presser today: - Tom Henry was adamant there are no plans to sell the team (though maybe this files under "what else is he gonna say"), but John Henry flying to the DR with a big contingent I think is a good sign - Bloom re-emphasized the notion that jmei alluded to above and others have mentioned, which is that they're going to be strict with the middle tier guys according to their valuation, and move on to someone else, but the team is willing to make the press for the guys they really want to keep/get (Devers and Yoshida I think are proof points this off-season) Did they consider X to be a mid tier guy? As far as extending him a year ago.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 11, 2023 13:26:19 GMT -5
A couple takeaways from the presser today: - Tom Henry was adamant there are no plans to sell the team (though maybe this files under "what else is he gonna say"), but John Henry flying to the DR with a big contingent I think is a good sign - Bloom re-emphasized the notion that jmei alluded to above and others have mentioned, which is that they're going to be strict with the middle tier guys according to their valuation, and move on to someone else, but the team is willing to make the press for the guys they really want to keep/get (Devers and Yoshida I think are proof points this off-season) Did they consider X to be a mid tier guy? As far as extending him a year ago. I think pretty much everyone agrees they screwed up the extension talks with him last off-season. My impression is they weren't serious about it then, got serious about it this off-season and by then it was too late.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 11, 2023 13:31:29 GMT -5
A couple takeaways from the presser today: - Tom Henry was adamant there are no plans to sell the team (though maybe this files under "what else is he gonna say"), but John Henry flying to the DR with a big contingent I think is a good sign - Bloom re-emphasized the notion that jmei alluded to above and others have mentioned, which is that they're going to be strict with the middle tier guys according to their valuation, and move on to someone else, but the team is willing to make the press for the guys they really want to keep/get ( Devers and Yoshida I think are proof points this off-season) Devers yes, but Yoshida's pay is aligned with more of a mid-tier FA than one of the top-shelf talents. I get your point, though - that the rest of the league saw this as a gross overpay, but the Sox were willing to go there.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 11, 2023 13:35:14 GMT -5
A couple takeaways from the presser today: - Tom Henry was adamant there are no plans to sell the team (though maybe this files under "what else is he gonna say"), but John Henry flying to the DR with a big contingent I think is a good sign - Bloom re-emphasized the notion that jmei alluded to above and others have mentioned, which is that they're going to be strict with the middle tier guys according to their valuation, and move on to someone else, but the team is willing to make the press for the guys they really want to keep/get ( Devers and Yoshida I think are proof points this off-season) Devers yes, but Yoshida's pay is aligned with more of a mid-tier FA than one of the top-shelf talents. I get your point, though - that the rest of the league saw this as a gross overpay, but the Sox were willing to go there. His pay is more mid-tier (or like upper-middle) but from the reports from the Red Sox side, and from every publicly available projection, it sounds like their expectations for him are above that level. Disagree that the whole rest of the league felt that way, but yeah generally, they were willing to pay the most to get the guy.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 11, 2023 14:13:03 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start. Why on earth is the shape of the roster on January 11th a question of "decision-making" at all? They're in the middle of the process of roster-building, and just had things shaken up yesterday in a way they haven't even had time to respond to. The time to judge their decisions is after they've made them.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 11, 2023 14:31:17 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start. Why on earth is the shape of the roster on January 11th a question of "decision-making" at all? They're in the middle of the process of roster-building, and just had things shaken up yesterday in a way they haven't even had time to respond to. The time to judge their decisions is after they've made them.
Okay but pitchers and catchers do report in 34 days so let’s not act like they have loads of time here.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2023 14:35:09 GMT -5
I really thought these quotes from Tom Werner today were interesting (via: www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/01/tom-werner-says-there-are-no-plans-to-sell-red-sox-takes-stock-of-team-heading-into-2023.html)“As a fan, I think we saw that our bullpen last year was mediocre and I think we’ve improved our bullpen. We’re obviously counting on a number of pitchers who were not productive last year to come back, starting with Chris Sale and Paxton. I think the signing of Yoshida was a big signing. We haven’t spent enough time talking about that. But he could be an impact player for us. That’s not to say that I’m guaranteeing anything, but I’m confident we’re going to be competitive.” ... "This is a marathon. We were pretty confident where we’d finish in October when we were playing games in June and the wheels fell off. People have to be healthy. Chris Sale has to perform at the level we expect him to. We’ll then just see how we do on the field.” Now, I don't think Tom Werner is some astute baseball junkie who is providing this analysis of the team. The guy looked like he was going to fall asleep at the press conference. Rather, I think this is his interpretation of what the front office is briefing him in meetings with Chaim and Sam Kennedy. And as a result maybe a more transparent look at what the front office is thinking in contrast to the GM-speak they might say to the media. His second quote specifically on Sale was very striking.
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