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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 11, 2023 14:39:54 GMT -5
Does it seems like ownership and FO are in front of the press more these days? I have a bad memory, unlike Champs , but it seems so.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 14:41:39 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start. Why on earth is the shape of the roster on January 11th a question of "decision-making" at all? They're in the middle of the process of roster-building, and just had things shaken up yesterday in a way they haven't even had time to respond to. The time to judge their decisions is after they've made them.
They've already made a number of decisions, though--like the decision to DFA Downs but keep (say) Ort. That looks like a bad decision in hindsight and they deserve some small amount of criticism for it.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 11, 2023 14:42:54 GMT -5
Why on earth is the shape of the roster on January 11th a question of "decision-making" at all? They're in the middle of the process of roster-building, and just had things shaken up yesterday in a way they haven't even had time to respond to. The time to judge their decisions is after they've made them.
Okay but pitchers and catchers do report in 34 days so let’s not act like they have loads of time here. I mean, that's more than a month. We're still closer to the end of the 2022 World Series than we are to opening day.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 11, 2023 14:47:10 GMT -5
Why on earth is the shape of the roster on January 11th a question of "decision-making" at all? They're in the middle of the process of roster-building, and just had things shaken up yesterday in a way they haven't even had time to respond to. The time to judge their decisions is after they've made them.
They've already made a number of decisions, though--like the decision to DFA Downs but keep (say) Ort. That looks like a bad decision in hindsight and they deserve some small amount of criticism for it. If Downs wasn't worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story got hurt, he wouldn't be any more worth having now. And in any case, was that a bad decision (as opposed to bad luck) if they did that at a time when they expected Story to be healthy?
Didn't you say yourself recently that Downs and Hoy Park are totally fungible replacement-level types (if that) whom they could easily replace with other guys in the spring? Maybe that was someone else...
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 11, 2023 14:50:12 GMT -5
I’ll go on the record as saying that I like Bloom as a GM and I appreciate the good qualities that he offers. This includes 40-man tinkering, amateur evaluation, pro evaluation, farm system strength, etc. With that said, roster construction is not one of his strong suits thus far. Last year, it made little sense to not have a contingency plan if Dalbec faltered. Right field was…yeah. I’d go as far to say trading Vazquez was not smart if the intention was to compete, considering the message it sent. The bench from year to year has left a lot to be desired. Here we are in a dire position: an incomplete and paper-thin middle infield in January. Surely there is a way to salvage this year, especially if Story comes back sooner than later, but we’re a day late and a dollar short on improving the club in a meaningful way without a painful and/or unpredictable trade. Keeping the faith for now. And if anyone can make an unconventional play for talent, it’s Bloom. But I’m not sure he values success in 2023 enough to pay the price. I agree about RF last year; when JBJ was signed everyone pretty much expected that there would be another OF addition, but then it never materialized. If we had stayed under the tax I might have felt differently about that, but not adding there and also not getting under the tax feels like a huge miss. And it's just ugly to have Christian Arroyo as your backup OF on Opening Day.
As for 1B, though, I think there was a contingency plan. If Casas hadn't injured his leg last year he probably would have been on track for a summer callup. Dalbec absolutely sizzled down the stretch in 2021, so having a top 25 prospect in all of baseball poised for a midseason callup if Dalbec faltered felt fair enough to me. It just so happens that Dalbec sucked, and Casas got hurt, and Shaw was washed, and none of our other depth there (e.g. Franchy) was able to step up.
I'm not worried about the middle IF yet given the room we still have to spend, improved prospect and 40-man depth that could allow for trades, and some alright FA/trade targets still out there, but Story's injury was a blow and there's certainly lots of work to be done. We'll see what happens. I am confident he will not mortgage the future to improve the 2023 team, but I also don't think he has to. If he can find roughly league average solutions at 2B and SS until Story (hopefully) gets back, which feels pretty attainable, I still think this team can compete. Projections just might have to drop by a win or two, depending on if and when Story gets back.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 14:51:35 GMT -5
They've already made a number of decisions, though--like the decision to DFA Downs but keep (say) Ort. That looks like a bad decision in hindsight and they deserve some small amount of criticism for it. If Downs wasn't worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story got hurt, he wouldn't be any more worth having now. And in any case, was that a bad decision (as opposed to bad luck) if they did that at a time when they expected Story to be healthy?
Didn't you say yourself recently that Downs and Hoy Park are totally fungible replacement-level types (if that) whom they could easily replace with other guys in the spring? Maybe that was someone else...
I think Downs was worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story was hurt and is even more worth having now. It was a bad decision then and is a worse decision now (with the power of hindsight). Part of what front offices are asked to do is to predict the future and they didn't do such a good job of it. I do think they can pick someone off waivers who can roughly approximate that production, but (1) they still need to actually do it and (2) would be nice to have more than one of those guys.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 11, 2023 14:56:05 GMT -5
They've already made a number of decisions, though--like the decision to DFA Downs but keep (say) Ort. That looks like a bad decision in hindsight and they deserve some small amount of criticism for it. If Downs wasn't worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story got hurt, he wouldn't be any more worth having now. And in any case, was that a bad decision (as opposed to bad luck) if they did that at a time when they expected Story to be healthy?
Didn't you say yourself recently that Downs and Hoy Park are totally fungible replacement-level types (if that) whom they could easily replace with other guys in the spring? Maybe that was someone else...
Agree, and it's too early to call this a bad decision regardless. Let's say Ort is DFA'd when Kluber's acquisition is made official, or in the near future if/when we add Andrus or Iglesias. In that case, two expendable guys were DFA'd. Who cares if one was DFA'd before the other? I think Ort's is probably the next head to roll unless we're able to trade some guys from the 40 man.
Do we really think starting the year with Downs as even a backup major league IF would have been an acceptable outcome? I don't, and I agree that replacement level 2B/SS types should not be too hard to find. Niko Goodrum, for example.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 11, 2023 14:58:37 GMT -5
If Downs wasn't worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story got hurt, he wouldn't be any more worth having now. And in any case, was that a bad decision (as opposed to bad luck) if they did that at a time when they expected Story to be healthy?
Didn't you say yourself recently that Downs and Hoy Park are totally fungible replacement-level types (if that) whom they could easily replace with other guys in the spring? Maybe that was someone else...
I think Downs was worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story was hurt and is even more worth having now. It was a bad decision then and is a worse decision now (with the power of hindsight). Part of what front offices are asked to do is to predict the future and they didn't do such a good job of it. I do think they can pick someone off waivers who can roughly approximate that production, but (1) they still need to actually do it and (2) would be nice to have more than one of those guys. I mentioned this in my other comment, but would you rather have Downs on the ML roster than Goodrum? I sure wouldn't. Seems to me that we have already done it (#1), then, and multiple times if you count Park. I don't think it's hard to acquire middle IFs who can clear the bar of outplaying Jeter Downs. If we felt Downs still had reasonable upside for more, sure, there's room to quibble with that. I don't think we did, though.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 11, 2023 15:07:55 GMT -5
If Downs wasn't worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story got hurt, he wouldn't be any more worth having now. And in any case, was that a bad decision (as opposed to bad luck) if they did that at a time when they expected Story to be healthy?
Didn't you say yourself recently that Downs and Hoy Park are totally fungible replacement-level types (if that) whom they could easily replace with other guys in the spring? Maybe that was someone else...
I think Downs was worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story was hurt and is even more worth having now. It was a bad decision then and is a worse decision now (with the power of hindsight). Part of what front offices are asked to do is to predict the future and they didn't do such a good job of it. I do think they can pick someone off waivers who can roughly approximate that production, but (1) they still need to actually do it and (2) would be nice to have more than one of those guys. I guess we just disagree on whether it makes sense to criticize their decision-making on decisions they have yet to make.
I liked the point you made earlier - that Bloom takes a very disciplined approach to roster building, and possibly even to a fault. That was in evidence in their approach to the middle infield this offseason. We're about 24 hours removed from the middle infield situation being shaken up, though, and we don't even know in what ways they're going to change course now. Maybe it's tipped them further in the direction of making a big trade for a CF or SS. Maybe they'll just go ahead and sign Andrus and Iglesias and suddenly we have an embarrassment of slightly-below average MI options. We shall see! In any case, I think a good time to judge their decision-making is after they've decided to do or not to do those things.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 11, 2023 15:14:19 GMT -5
Jeter Downs hasn't been even an average minor league hitter (or hit above .200) since 2019, when he was in the majors last year he was even a negative player on defense and he struck out in over half his plate appearances. Steamer thinks he'll have a 77 wRC+ next year and I think that might be generous. Jeter Downses grow on trees.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 16:16:41 GMT -5
Eh, I guess I'm higher on Jeter Downs than most. I don't think 24-year-old competent defensive shortstops with some offensive upside grow on trees.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2023 16:49:01 GMT -5
Eh, I guess I'm higher on Jeter Downs than most. I don't think 24-year-old competent defensive shortstops with some offensive upside grow on trees. At what point do we stop viewing Jeter Downs as having offensive upside, though? I mean I guess you can make the argument he has upside because it almost literally cannot get worse than what it is now, but that's about the only logic I see to the statement. At one point in his prospect journey yes, I get that he had some tools that were worth betting on. But he hasn't had a productive offensive season since 2019 when he went off in 12 games as an age-advanced AA-er. Outside of some stretches in Worcester last year he has been an unmitigated disaster at the plate, to the point where he was even below the Mendoza line in Puerto Rico this offseason. To me, offensive upside means the capability of adding some value and with Downs, at this point, I feel like any team he plays for is just praying he can get to be just fringe-average.
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Post by geostorm on Jan 13, 2023 10:52:25 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jan 13, 2023 11:09:53 GMT -5
The Yankees show up an irritating number of times. Like they got a vote for "best at developing hitters." Um, so there's Judge, and....?
And they got two votes for "hoards prospects the most." What? Did these people see what they gave up for Montas? Rizzo? Gallo?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 13, 2023 11:33:06 GMT -5
The Yankees show up an irritating number of times. Like they got a vote for "best at developing hitters." Um, so there's Judge, and....?
And they got two votes for "hoards prospects the most." What? Did these people see what they gave up for Montas? Rizzo? Gallo?
They also received at least a vote for the best farm system. Seems absurd to me unless whoever it was is just really sold on Dominguez as a coming superstar or something.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 13, 2023 12:31:04 GMT -5
The Yankees show up an irritating number of times. Like they got a vote for "best at developing hitters." Um, so there's Judge, and....? And they got two votes for "hoards prospects the most." What? Did these people see what they gave up for Montas? Rizzo? Gallo?
They also received at least a vote for the best farm system. Seems absurd to me unless whoever it was is just really sold on Dominguez as a coming superstar or something. These things are so subjective but I guess we have to give it a bit more weight since it's other front office execs giving the rankings. That said, I think MLB.com had 4 NYY prospects in their top 100 and three of those guys are AAA or higher.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 13, 2023 12:49:22 GMT -5
They also received at least a vote for the best farm system. Seems absurd to me unless whoever it was is just really sold on Dominguez as a coming superstar or something. These things are so subjective but I guess we have to give it a bit more weight since it's other front office execs giving the rankings. That said, I think MLB.com had 4 NYY prospects in their top 100 and three of those guys are AAA or higher. The average team has 3.3 top 100 prospects...
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jan 13, 2023 13:03:08 GMT -5
That being said it seems like the Yankees buy every deadline and trade away some decent prospects and still end up with a decent farm team overall. Imagine if they still had Waldichuk.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 13, 2023 13:14:31 GMT -5
That being said it seems like the Yankees buy every deadline and trade away some decent prospects and still end up with a decent farm team overall. Imagine if they still had Waldichuk. That's fair, but the Yankees farm always seems to be ranked relatively highly but if you look at their 2022 team. Of their main players, the only two that were home grown far as I can tell are Judge and Severino. So it's not like they churn out home grown players at as large of a rate as one might expect a farm that is generally ranked relatively highly and getting votes for which team develops pitching and hitters best. I personally don't really see that being the case at least in my short research of the last few seasons anyway.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 13, 2023 13:25:19 GMT -5
I recognize I am extremely biased but I choose to believe the Yankees' farm system is typically very overrated.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 13, 2023 13:44:53 GMT -5
These things are so subjective but I guess we have to give it a bit more weight since it's other front office execs giving the rankings. That said, I think MLB.com had 4 NYY prospects in their top 100 and three of those guys are AAA or higher. The average team has 3.3 top 100 prospects... Right. These are just higher level. Trust me, I'm with you. If they are NYY prospects, they are over-hyped. Well, except for Eduardo Nùñez. He was the next Derek Jeter.
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Post by taiwansox on Jan 13, 2023 14:43:52 GMT -5
I recognize I am extremely biased but I choose to believe the Yankees' farm system is typically very overrated. Too many to list: Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Greg Bird, even Phil Hughes to some extent…meanwhile Lester, Pedroia, Mookie didn’t ever get the level of love as Montero lol
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Post by Guidas on Jan 14, 2023 12:01:16 GMT -5
I recognize I am extremely biased but I choose to believe the Yankees' farm system is typically very overrated. Too many to list: Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Greg Bird, even Phil Hughes to some extent…meanwhile Lester, Pedroia, Mookie didn’t ever get the level of love as Montero lol And let us not forget "Future All Star" Gary Sanchez!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 18, 2023 12:12:40 GMT -5
So. Duvall is the next addition. Time to kick this thread again.
Here's another way I am pondering all of this
2013- which ended up a magic year - who did I most look forward to watching play? Napoli, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Victorino, Ortiz, Bogaerts, Lester, Koji. Some others really made huge impacts, such as Gomes - but we didn't see it at the outset. That's 8 players - and a few such as Pedey and Ortiz were just huge impact players and personalities. Lots of veteran leadership. Incredibly clutch team.
2018 - Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Betts (wow - what a quartet), JD, Brockstar, CVaz, Sale, ERod, Kimbrell (at least) - 10, including that first quartet - no wonder we had such a season.
We don't know what 2023 will end up like - but using the current projected roster from this website - Whitlock, Bello, Schreiber, Casas, Devers, Yoshida (more to see if he can do it here) - maybe Houck and Arroyo- are the ones I most look forward to seeing play. That's 7, a few are stretches, most are unproven.
That pretty much sums up how much of a black box this season will be for the Red Sox.
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Post by jmei on Jan 19, 2023 15:31:28 GMT -5
As a side note, feels like there's almost a reflexive criticism of signings like this one by folks who dislike the front office (and are particularly upset because the front office has not acquired enough star-level players). I think it's totally fair to dislike this move because you'd rather give the playing time to Duran/Refsnyder or because you think Duvall is toast or because you think they should spend the money on a bullpen arm instead. I also totally understand being upset at the front office for, say, not re-signing Bogaerts. But criticizing this move because Duvall's not a star feels like misplaced anger. Don't take that out on poor Adam Duvall.
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