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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by incandenza on Jan 26, 2023 13:29:30 GMT -5
It might be interesting to go back and review what people were saying at the 2022 trade deadline. As I recall most people here felt the team should buy not sell and blasted Bloom for not adding enough. That attitude was probably driven by sports media coverage and agents working behind the scenes. In 2022 I know I posted here the Sox were toast and had no chance at all at even making the playoffs let alone the WS and I wished they would sell big time and use the rest of the season to give major playing time to younger players. And we know what happened. The Sox damn near made it to the WS. Actually lead the Astros 2-1 and should have won game 1. It's "funny" to me that Bloom was the genius of the world in 2021 and one year later after a completely snake bit season he's a complete idiot because he didn't take hypothetical deals rather than the deals we know about. Or that he is condemned that high ceiling prospects he traded for haven't become useful pieces. How many highly touted MLB prospects end up as stars? I doubt it's even 5%. You got me curious about this, and browsing around in the Trade Deadline thread ca. July 24th or so, most people were expecting them to sell; few if any of them wanted to buy. There was much speculation about what sort of prospect haul JDM/Eovaldi/Vazquez/Wacha would get, and differing opinions on whether they would/should trade Bogaerts.
But incidentally I also stumbled on this comment by julyanmorley:
At this time the Red Sox' playoff odds were bouncing around between 20% and 30%.
ADD: Here's something I said as late as July 29th:
ADD 2: Shout out to jrip01, who has made exactly one comment ever and it was this one, on August 1, 2022:
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Post by Guidas on Jan 26, 2023 15:52:11 GMT -5
It might be interesting to go back and review what people were saying at the 2022 trade deadline. As I recall most people here felt the team should buy not sell and blasted Bloom for not adding enough. That attitude was probably driven by sports media coverage and agents working behind the scenes. In 2022 I know I posted here the Sox were toast and had no chance at all at even making the playoffs let alone the WS and I wished they would sell big time and use the rest of the season to give major playing time to younger players. And we know what happened. The Sox damn near made it to the WS. Actually lead the Astros 2-1 and should have won game 1. It's "funny" to me that Bloom was the genius of the world in 2021 and one year later after a completely snake bit season he's a complete idiot because he didn't take hypothetical deals rather than the deals we know about. Or that he is condemned that high ceiling prospects he traded for haven't become useful pieces. How many highly touted MLB prospects end up as stars? I doubt it's even 5%. That was me. I believe my perspective was "go for it because you didn't add enough in the off season and it's really showing."
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 26, 2023 19:25:46 GMT -5
Honest question are you serious? You believe those are good comps for Bogaerts that was about 4 bwar at deadline, 5 straight top 17 MVP finishes, two straight SS awards with 3 of the last four. Bryant 2.2 bwar at deadline, Baez 2.7, Kimbrel 2.5 and Schwarber 1.8. The best comp that is still crazy off value wise is Baez. Crow-Armstrong is the Cubs #1 prospect and #30 overall per MLB.COM. Also per MLB.COM the 2022 trade deadline had more top 100 prospects traded than any deadline since 2017. Like I said this is the pre trading Betts crap, that you won't get hardly anything for him. The same reason he got a massive contract from a team that didn't even really need him, is the same reason you'd get a big return for him. He was a truly elite player. Top 17 MVP finishes talk about cherry picking lol Yes I was serious and yes they’re fine comps, they don’t need to be 1 for 1 identical players as Bogaerts to prove that rentals typically get returns that would appear to be lesser than their actual value as players. That extremely context-needy stat you threw out there doesn’t mean that the market loosened, it just means Juan Soto was available. That’s it. But, whatever. Like a mod once said, despite all of the evidence ever provided to you in the contrary you’ve never wavered off of an opinion ever, so you can live in your little fantasy land, I’ve already been stretched about as thin with engagement with you as any sane human can take. I'd say it shows when good players are available at the deadline teams trade a good amount for them. Bad teams have started unloading players early to maximize value, so you get fewer truly elite players available at deadline. Cherry picking? Baez for example has only gotten MVP votes once in his career. You truly believe it's equal? If we aren't using comparable players then what exactly is your point? That lesser players haven't gotten grear returns? Take the Baez trade add more and it's a great return.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 26, 2023 19:36:28 GMT -5
Sale wasn't out for the season at the time, he broke his wrist rehabbing in August. He wasn’t out for the season but he was out until mid-late September at best even before that. www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/07/chris-sale-undergoes-surgery-on-broken-finger-boston-red-sox-say-lefty-had-open-reduction-and-internal-fixation.htmlHe may have been out for the season, according to a doc quoted in a story the day after Sale broke his finger. At best, he was going to miss nearly all of the remaining season. "Dr. Chris Geary, an orthopedic surgeon at Signature Healthcare in Brockton, explained the procedure on Twitter. “'This means it was a displaced/unstable fracture, so they had to open it, put it back into alignment and fix it with hardware - hence the 'open reduction internal fixation,' Geary tweeted. 'This aligns the bone and allows it to heal but doesn’t make the healing any faster.' “'I don’t think he’ll be able to throw for about six weeks - he can simulate the throwing motion and keep his shoulder strong but probably at least 4-6 weeks until he is allowed to pick up a ball,'” Geary added. 'Given that he wasn’t stretched out before, I doubt he’ll be good to go this year.'”
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 26, 2023 19:48:47 GMT -5
Xander wasn't going to be traded. He had a NTC and the Red Sox were very open in saying they wanted to re-sign him. He wasn't going anywhere, so he doesn't even belong in this conversation. It was Eo and/or JDM and neither was bringing anything "crazy." The onus was on you to present evidence to back up your argument. Instead, you tried to turn it around by insisting that someone else present evidence to the contrary, which thegoodthebadthesox did. At least give an inch and acknowledge that you overstated your point. The rest of us do it now and then. It hasn't killed any of us. You have no clue if he'd use it, it's actually a huge benefit to be traded because no QO and teams don't lose picks and international money. The fact they didn't try is the problem, as I said back then he's likely gone because he'll get a crazy offer. Saying you want to resign someone doesn't give the GM a pass, especially when he wasn't even close to the market value Bogaerts got. I said the overall value would be crazy from a fire sale, not that we would get monster returns on every single player! Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Vazquez, Martinez, Hill and Schreiber. I would have tried to move all of them. Value, okay let's look at recent red sox trades or former Red Sox players traded. Vazquez #17 and #21 prospects per MLB.COM. Benintendi got 3 good young arms, # 9, #16 and #26 in Royals system. Diekman who was horrible got you a back up catcher and either cash or player to be named later. Workman and Hembree got you Pivetta and a good young arm. Even if you go crazy low, 3 top 30 guys for Bogaerts, 2 for Eovaldi, 1 for Martinez, 2 for Wacha yet lesser ones than Eovaldi, 2 for Vazquez, 2 for Schreiber, bag of balls for Hill. Could also have included non prospects, I'd hope Bloom goes after a bunch of younger upside guys. Yet 10-12 type top 30 prospects isn't a crazy amount of value?
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Post by seamus on Jan 26, 2023 22:30:23 GMT -5
Trades don't happen in vacuums. Let's completely set aside for the moment the argument (to which I mostly ascribe) that the Sox had a realistic enough chance of a playoff spot that just keeping all these guys who could have been difference makers down the stretch made plenty of sense. A contending team with a hole at shortstop would have needed to decide Bogaerts was their top trade target. Who fits that description? Seattle targeted pitching. Maybe Philadelphia? They were already in pretty good position for a Wild Card spot without a realistic shot at the division, so they seemed happy making moves like the Marsh and Thor trades. I'm just not convinced that there were very many teams who would have been interested in flipping multiple good prospects to rent him, especially given that he wasn't hitting for power, so I really can't get too mad about keeping him.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,810
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 26, 2023 22:59:11 GMT -5
Xander wasn't going to be traded. He had a NTC and the Red Sox were very open in saying they wanted to re-sign him. He wasn't going anywhere, so he doesn't even belong in this conversation. It was Eo and/or JDM and neither was bringing anything "crazy." The onus was on you to present evidence to back up your argument. Instead, you tried to turn it around by insisting that someone else present evidence to the contrary, which thegoodthebadthesox did. At least give an inch and acknowledge that you overstated your point. The rest of us do it now and then. It hasn't killed any of us. You have no clue if he'd use it, it's actually a huge benefit to be traded because no QO and teams don't lose picks and international money. The fact they didn't try is the problem, as I said back then he's likely gone because he'll get a crazy offer. Saying you want to resign someone doesn't give the GM a pass, especially when he wasn't even close to the market value Bogaerts got. I said the overall value would be crazy from a fire sale, not that we would get monster returns on every single player! Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Vazquez, Martinez, Hill and Schreiber. I would have tried to move all of them. Value, okay let's look at recent red sox trades or former Red Sox players traded. Vazquez #17 and #21 prospects per MLB.COM. Benintendi got 3 good young arms, # 9, #16 and #26 in Royals system. Diekman who was horrible got you a back up catcher and either cash or player to be named later. Workman and Hembree got you Pivetta and a good young arm. Even if you go crazy low, 3 top 30 guys for Bogaerts, 2 for Eovaldi, 1 for Martinez, 2 for Wacha yet lesser ones than Eovaldi, 2 for Vazquez, 2 for Schreiber, bag of balls for Hill. Could also have included non prospects, I'd hope Bloom goes after a bunch of younger upside guys. Yet 10-12 type top 30 prospects isn't a crazy amount of value? (Banging head against the wall emoji goes here) I'll go through this and then I'm out because this is pointless. The cumulative possible return you list for those guys is not "crazy." It's just a lot of volume. And the term "top 30 prospects" is trite and meaningless. Guys in the 15 to 30 range of a good system are long shots to contribute in the The Show. In a lousy system, like we had until a few years ago, they're even less likely to turn into anything useful. 1. Xander - Already covered. He's a non-factor here. They said they wanted to re-sign him and he wanted to stay. A QO means nothing to a player of that caliber. They get paid. We saw that when the Pads gave X $280M. We're not talking Stephen Drew. 2. The return for Beni was not crazy - unless you mean crazy bad. Franchy, gone. Wink, replacement level. None of the other three pieces they got are in the SP top 60. 3. Vazquez - Return was "Eh," certainly not crazy. Let's hope one of the two guys we got contributes something at some point. 4. Schreiber - It would have been nuts to trade a filthy, cost-controlled RP. He could be an inexpensive contributor here for a few years. 5. Wacha - Was having a decent year but his BABIP-against was way below his career norm and teams don't miss these things in players they're considering acquiring. Lou Gorman is gone, God rest his soul. Wacha wouldn't have brought anything crazy. 6. Hill - Not worth discussing. That leaves Eo, a solid SP with an injury history and whose velo was down coming off his latest injury, and JDM, a DH in the midst of a 1-WAR season. I think we might have gotten a guy or two toward the back end of the MLB top 100, but nothing crazy. The real opportunities lost were getting under the LTT, two R2C picks and money to throw at 2023 draftees.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 26, 2023 23:23:54 GMT -5
You have no clue if he'd use it, it's actually a huge benefit to be traded because no QO and teams don't lose picks and international money. The fact they didn't try is the problem, as I said back then he's likely gone because he'll get a crazy offer. Saying you want to resign someone doesn't give the GM a pass, especially when he wasn't even close to the market value Bogaerts got. I said the overall value would be crazy from a fire sale, not that we would get monster returns on every single player! Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Vazquez, Martinez, Hill and Schreiber. I would have tried to move all of them. Value, okay let's look at recent red sox trades or former Red Sox players traded. Vazquez #17 and #21 prospects per MLB.COM. Benintendi got 3 good young arms, # 9, #16 and #26 in Royals system. Diekman who was horrible got you a back up catcher and either cash or player to be named later. Workman and Hembree got you Pivetta and a good young arm. Even if you go crazy low, 3 top 30 guys for Bogaerts, 2 for Eovaldi, 1 for Martinez, 2 for Wacha yet lesser ones than Eovaldi, 2 for Vazquez, 2 for Schreiber, bag of balls for Hill. Could also have included non prospects, I'd hope Bloom goes after a bunch of younger upside guys. Yet 10-12 type top 30 prospects isn't a crazy amount of value? (Banging head against the wall emoji goes here) I'll go through this and then I'm out because this is pointless. The cumulative possible return you list for those guys is not "crazy." It's just a lot of volume. And the term "top 30 prospects" is trite and meaningless. Guys in the 15 to 30 range of a good system are long shots to contribute in the The Show. In a lousy system, like we had until a few years ago, they're even less likely to turn into anything useful. 1. Xander - Already covered. He's a non-factor here. They said they wanted to re-sign him and he wanted to stay. A QO means nothing to a player of that caliber. They get paid. We saw that when the Pads gave X $280M. We're not talking Stephen Drew. 2. The return for Beni was not crazy - unless you mean crazy bad. Franchy, gone. Wink, replacement level. None of the other three pieces they got are in the SP top 60. 3. Vazquez - Return was "Eh," certainly not crazy. Let's hope one of the two guys we got contributes something at some point. 4. Schreiber - It would have been nuts to trade a filthy, cost-controlled RP. He could be an inexpensive contributor here for a few years. 5. Wacha - Was having a decent year but his BABIP-against was way below his career norm and teams don't miss these things in players they're considering acquiring. Lou Gorman is gone, God rest his soul. Wacha wouldn't have brought anything crazy. 6. Hill - Not worth discussing. That leaves Eo, a solid SP with an injury history and whose velo was down coming off his latest injury, and JDM, a DH in the midst of a 1-WAR season. I think we might have gotten a guy or two toward the back end of the MLB top 100, but nothing crazy. The real opportunities lost were getting under the LTT, two R2C picks and money to throw at 2023 draftees. When did I every say crazy return for each player? I literally did a follow up post explaining it was about the amount of prospects. You can't argue I'm wrong and that isn't a crazy amount. If Bloom can't find value out of that, he's a horrible GM! Yet here we are, two 4th round picks lol. All prospects are hit and miss, the more you get the better the chances. Nevermind like I've said before, it would allow you to make trades. BTW I was referencing the Benintendi trade to Yankees, not the horrible one Bloom did.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 27, 2023 13:16:21 GMT -5
So we agree that Bloom has been efficient with his free agent signings. And it's objectively the case that they've spent up to or over the CBT in each season. When you talk about a mid-range or cheaper FA signing being asked to "carry too much weight," then, you're saying that it's the cost-controlled guys who need to contribute more, and that the team has been hamstrung by the lack of good graduating prospects in recent years?
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 27, 2023 16:05:54 GMT -5
When I listened to Bloom since he was hired I always felt he targeted this offseason he made me feel his hands were tied to those contracts expiring. But something must of changed in there thinking maybe how the market got out of wack. But you can't count on fixed costs.Some owners want toflex there spending power. Its good for the game no collusion.
There was a change in direction from the front office. There staying patient through the system. I even wonder if he would of signed Story all over again. I have faith in the kids but our team isn't suppose to be built this way 100%. It's suppose to be a combination of the 3. Minor league, Trades, Free agents. I gonna keep an eye on Sale this season to see how this goes. I am hopeful but not sold 100%. Xman should still be here. Not at that present deal.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 27, 2023 17:33:58 GMT -5
So we agree that Bloom has been efficient with his free agent signings. And it's objectively the case that they've spent up to or over the CBT in each season. When you talk about a mid-range or cheaper FA signing being asked to "carry too much weight," then, you're saying that it's the cost-controlled guys who need to contribute more, and that the team has been hamstrung by the lack of good graduating prospects in recent years? He’s saying if you focus on value within a vacuum then it can lead to bad outcomes. All moves are related that’s where Bloom’s grade falls when you look at all of his moves in conjunction with each other. I.e. yeah him not outbidding the Padres for Bogaerts makes sense, but he should be rewarded for that when you look at the slap in the face never going to happen offer he offered to him last year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 27, 2023 17:44:38 GMT -5
So we agree that Bloom has been efficient with his free agent signings. And it's objectively the case that they've spent up to or over the CBT in each season. When you talk about a mid-range or cheaper FA signing being asked to "carry too much weight," then, you're saying that it's the cost-controlled guys who need to contribute more, and that the team has been hamstrung by the lack of good graduating prospects in recent years? He’s saying if you focus on value within a vacuum then it can lead to bad outcomes. All moves are related that’s where Bloom’s grade falls when you look at all of his moves in conjunction with each other.I.e. yeah him not outbidding the Padres for Bogaerts makes sense, but he should be rewarded for that when you look at the slap in the face never going to happen offer he offered to him last year. On the bolded, even as someone who frequently defends him I think that's clearly an area where they messed up last off-season. Specifically the Hunter Renfroe sequence, where I think the trade in and of itself was fine, but they never did the rest of the leg work to replace him. Even had they had Tommy Pham for the whole year the outfield construction would have made more sense, even if the team's overall outcome wasn't really going to change. I think it's interesting that Bloom is talking a lot about now how the pieces they're acquiring this off-season should fit together better, and how last year he felt that the team performed as less than the some of its parts (which is true not only due to roster construction but also due to injury and clutch luck). It seems like how the pieces fit together is something that they are actively trying to improve on. And we'll see how it goes, but on the surface the roster to me does feel much more cohesive than last years. They have platoon opportunities all over the place, they have more certainty at the back end of games in the bullpen, they have positional flexibility/redundancy, the lineup has a better balance of OBP-skewed players, there's more and better AAA depth, etc.
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Post by geostorm on Jan 27, 2023 18:43:12 GMT -5
Way too different way to Evaluate the Front Office and Ownership? Snapshot www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/35517018/way-too-early-2023-mlb-lineup-rankings"24. Boston Red Sox 1. Masataka Yoshida (LF, L) 2. Enrique Hernandez (SS, R) 3. Rafael Devers (3B, L) 4. Justin Turner (DH, R) 5. Alex Verdugo (RF, L) 6. Adam Duvall (CF, R) 7. Triston Casas (1B, L) 8. Adalberto Mondesi (2B, R) 9. Reese McGuire (C, L) Park-neutral runs: 670 Best traits: contact, strike-zone command | Worst traits: BABIP, speed Why Rafael Devers -- and not Betts or Bogaerts? Red Sox fans have seen two homegrown stars leave in recent years, but that won't happen a third time. Making sense of Boston's investment » Is Devers worth $331 million? » This is kind of a grim outlook for the Boston offense, one dragged down by a No. 28 ranking in BABIP. I'm not sure I love that conclusion, but with below-average long ball potential and a so-so outlook in the patience category, a middling outlook is really about the best you can do from a forecast standpoint. One of the areas of uncertainty is Yoshida, who the projections see as a strike zone discipline master but a little lagging when it comes to a BABIP that you'd expect will trend to elite -- if he's for real and translates his game to MLB. If he's the player the Red Sox signed him to be, he'll be elite in BABIP. Anyway, if you don't like this park-neutral projection for the Boston offense, consider this: Last year, the Red Sox scored 343 runs on the road. If you think of that as a half-season of a park-neutral performance, then double it to get a full-season projection. That's 686, and Boston lost Martinez and Bogaerts."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2023 20:44:46 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jan 27, 2023 20:49:30 GMT -5
I’m not sure “bah ha! You’re as bad as us” is the world’s best burn.
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Post by patford on Jan 27, 2023 21:00:50 GMT -5
With all the talk about getting under the cap and several owners who seem completely oblivious to the cap maybe it's time to make going over the cap hurt a lot more aside from the luxury tax. Let's say if a team goes over the cap they forfeit their first round pick. That might work?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2023 22:58:41 GMT -5
Last year, we had 60 starts by Hill, Crawford, Davis, Winckowski & Seabold. That's 37%, I find it difficult to think we won't improve in that area this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2023 22:59:34 GMT -5
I’m not sure “bah ha! You’re as bad as us” is the world’s best burn. Misery likes company
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 28, 2023 0:50:47 GMT -5
Is 6 playoff wins in 3 years bad? Without looking it up that’s probably in the upper third of the league..
Astros, Dodgers, Braves, Rays all obviously have more. Padres and Phillies have more. I could be way off here but I can’t imagine there are many other teams that would be ahead in the past three years.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 28, 2023 8:39:56 GMT -5
Im still not over the Benintendi trade. Dumbest thing our front office has done since the Lackey trade/ Hanley and Sandoval signings.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 28, 2023 8:49:39 GMT -5
Im still not over the Benintendi trade. Dumbest thing our front office has done since the Lackey trade/ Hanley and Sandoval signings. They replaced Benintendi with renfroe who had a higher fWAR in 2021 and between 2021 and 2022 they had the same fWAR at 4.5 each. I would say the beni trade and replacement with renfroe was actually a good move. The error came when they shipped renfroe put and tried to replace him with JBJ and thus never effectively replaced renfroe. Hell they still may not have depending on how the presumed yoshida/Verdugo corner OF combo does this year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 28, 2023 9:08:34 GMT -5
Im still not over the Benintendi trade. Dumbest thing our front office has done since the Lackey trade/ Hanley and Sandoval signings. Bloom gambled and lost. It's not like he lost the house, though. What was alarming about the trade for me wasn't that he traded Benintendi away as much as it was that he dealt him for 5 guys and depending upon how you feel about Winckowski who I regard as a fringy up and down 12th guy on the staff, he went 0 for 5 in selecting the return for Benintendi. I would have thought by the law of averages 1 out of 5 would have panned out to approximate Benintendi's value, but nope. And thus far that's the pattern of his minor league acquisitions beyond snagging Whitlock in Rule 5. Seabold, German, Downs, Binelas, and Hamilton thus far, along with Franchy and the other 4, the 2 kids from the Padres in the Hosmer deal, and even Wong if he loses out to Perez or Alfaro for the backup catching role look like a big nothing burger. Which is a shame because while Bloom has been here, the farm system has begun to improve and show promise. Yes, Mayer fell into his lap due to a last place finish and the Pirates wanting to spread their money around and the Tigers inexplicably taking a high school arm. But there has been improvement betind Mayer, or at least I think so/hope so. But that system would be even thicker if those trades would have yielded some/any hits instead of misses across the board. I acknowledge its early on some of these guys but Binelas appears to be a guy who has power but wont hit enough and has no position. Hamilton now has the best crack at making it with his speed and ability to play 2b in 2024, but I still question if he'll hit enough to be an average regular, rather than a utility player. German is JAG at this point. Don't know if he can be a high leverage setup man. I'd say everybody projects below those guys. I think being able to evaluate minor league talent from other organizations is big, especially when presented a scenario where the team has to consider selling on a player or a season.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 28, 2023 9:26:30 GMT -5
Im still not over the Benintendi trade. Dumbest thing our front office has done since the Lackey trade/ Hanley and Sandoval signings. They replaced Benintendi with renfroe who had a higher fWAR in 2021 and between 2021 and 2022 they had the same fWAR at 4.5 each. I would say the beni trade and replacement with renfroe was actually a good move. The error came when they shipped renfroe put and tried to replace him with JBJ and thus never effectively replaced renfroe. Hell they still may not have depending on how the presumed yoshida/Verdugo corner OF combo does this year. We didn’t trade Benny for Renfroe, one was and RF one was and LF and neither were in a trade with each other We traded a 26 year old at an all time low. We all knew it then too, not hindsight.
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Post by patford on Jan 28, 2023 9:40:59 GMT -5
Im still not over the Benintendi trade. Dumbest thing our front office has done since the Lackey trade/ Hanley and Sandoval signings. Bloom gambled and lost. It's not like he lost the house, though. What was alarming about the trade for me wasn't that he traded Benintendi away as much as it was that he dealt him for 5 guys and depending upon how you feel about Winckowski who I regard as a fringy up and down 12th guy on the staff, he went 0 for 5 in selecting the return for Benintendi. I would have thought by the law of averages 1 out of 5 would have panned out to approximate Benintendi's value, but nope. And thus far that's the pattern of his minor league acquisitions beyond snagging Whitlock in Rule 5. Seabold, German, Downs, Binelas, and Hamilton thus far, along with Franchy and the other 4, the 2 kids from the Padres in the Hosmer deal, and even Wong if he loses out to Perez or Alfaro for the backup catching role look like a big nothing burger. Which is a shame because while Bloom has been here, the farm system has begun to improve and show promise. Yes, Mayer fell into his lap due to a last place finish and the Pirates wanting to spread their money around and the Tigers inexplicably taking a high school arm. But there has been improvement betind Mayer, or at least I think so/hope so. But that system would be even thicker if those trades would have yielded some/any hits instead of misses across the board. I acknowledge its early on some of these guys but Binelas appears to be a guy who has power but wont hit enough and has no position. Hamilton now has the best crack at making it with his speed and ability to play 2b in 2024, but I still question if he'll hit enough to be an average regular, rather than a utility player. German is JAG at this point. Don't know if he can be a high leverage setup man. I'd say everybody projects below those guys. I think being able to evaluate minor league talent from other organizations is big, especially when presented a scenario where the team has to consider selling on a player or a season. Just a guess but the law of averages on prospects (probably even top ten prospects) becoming regular MLB players has got to be way worse than 1 in 5 ?
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Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2023 10:00:14 GMT -5
Im still not over the Benintendi trade. Dumbest thing our front office has done since the Lackey trade/ Hanley and Sandoval signings. Bloom gambled and lost. It's not like he lost the house, though. What was alarming about the trade for me wasn't that he traded Benintendi away as much as it was that he dealt him for 5 guys and depending upon how you feel about Winckowski who I regard as a fringy up and down 12th guy on the staff, he went 0 for 5 in selecting the return for Benintendi. I would have thought by the law of averages 1 out of 5 would have panned out to approximate Benintendi's value, but nope. And thus far that's the pattern of his minor league acquisitions beyond snagging Whitlock in Rule 5. Seabold, German, Downs, Binelas, and Hamilton thus far, along with Franchy and the other 4, the 2 kids from the Padres in the Hosmer deal, and even Wong if he loses out to Perez or Alfaro for the backup catching role look like a big nothing burger. Which is a shame because while Bloom has been here, the farm system has begun to improve and show promise. Yes, Mayer fell into his lap due to a last place finish and the Pirates wanting to spread their money around and the Tigers inexplicably taking a high school arm. But there has been improvement betind Mayer, or at least I think so/hope so. But that system would be even thicker if those trades would have yielded some/any hits instead of misses across the board. I acknowledge its early on some of these guys but Binelas appears to be a guy who has power but wont hit enough and has no position. Hamilton now has the best crack at making it with his speed and ability to play 2b in 2024, but I still question if he'll hit enough to be an average regular, rather than a utility player. German is JAG at this point. Don't know if he can be a high leverage setup man. I'd say everybody projects below those guys. I think being able to evaluate minor league talent from other organizations is big, especially when presented a scenario where the team has to consider selling on a player or a season. The system has gotten better, but my question is: how much of that improvement is above the nature growth of not drafting and not trading guys has there been? This isn’t so much a criticism of Bloom as it is a question about analysis that overrates him. Valdez and German are the two top-25 guys acquired outside the normal methods of draft or IFA. Neither lights my fire, exactly. My point is if there was a WAR for systems… say in 3 years what is replacement level top-20 prospect addition… where would he fall?
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