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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 19, 2022 20:22:15 GMT -5
I'm not understanding why there is confusion on the time frame for the Sox to compete again starts? As someone else already mentioned signing big contracts are based on where the team is in regard to the compete cycle. People are providing random answers with no explanation of their parameters. It's all based on when the Sox farm system can start consistently producing players to Boston on at least a semi-consistent yearly basis. Obviously, that part if it is not exactly clear-cut, that said, I think the next wave began last year or more accurately this year with Bello & Cassas however there does not appear to be anyone the year after unless someone exceeds expectations with their own development. Also in terms of the farm contributing consistently I'd believe you would need somewhere around a minimum of 2.0 War, if not more on average you contributing consistently. No matter how good your farm is you cannot say it will produce X prospects and Y WAR year in and year out but in order to do what they need to,to compete they will have to at least approximate a certain amount on average on a yearly basis. My best guess is at least 2 more years.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 19, 2022 20:48:58 GMT -5
I'm not understanding why there is confusion on the time frame for the Sox to compete again starts? As someone else already mentioned signing big contracts are based on where the team is in regard to the compete cycle. People are providing random answers with no explanation of their parameters. It's all based on when the Sox farm system can start consistently producing players to Boston on at least a semi-consistent yearly basis. Obviously, that part if it is not exactly clear-cut, that said, I think the next wave began last year or more accurately this year with Bello & Cassas however there does not appear to be anyone the year after unless someone exceeds expectations with their own development. Also in terms of the farm contributing consistently I'd believe you would need somewhere around a minimum of 2.0 War, if not more on average you contributing consistently. No matter how good your farm is you cannot say it will produce X prospects and Y WAR year in and year out but in order to do what they need to,to compete they will have to at least approximate a certain amount on average on a yearly basis. My best guess is at least 2 more years. Rafaela in 2024, or up for an injury in CF in 2023. Defensively he's already a plus outfielder. But in the mean, I agree with you. I'd love to know the leash on this transformation. People who are saying 2025 or 2026 don't realize that if we get there, your President of Baseball Ops will likely be different from the current occupant of this office.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 19, 2022 21:39:16 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Dec 19, 2022 21:47:51 GMT -5
i can’t read it. Which one are we?
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2022 21:58:01 GMT -5
Jim bowden? Aka ralph? How does he even still have a job after that? And again. It means nothing who wins the offseason doubly so for an offseason thats not even half over.
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Post by manfred on Dec 19, 2022 22:20:56 GMT -5
We need a running tally of writers whose criticism of the off-season doesn’t count.
Case by case, sure there are reasons to question articles. But there does seem to be a pretty universal sense that things have gone badly. There is time and season to go, but this sort of scrutiny can’t be helpful for job security.
Put differently: if some folks are blaming ownership and some Bloom, and if the year goes badly, I don’t think the owners will fire themselves.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2022 22:34:01 GMT -5
We need a running tally of writers whose criticism of the off-season doesn’t count. Case by case, sure there are reasons to question articles. But there does seem to be a pretty universal sense that things have gone badly. There is time and season to go, but this sort of scrutiny can’t be helpful for job security. Put differently: if some folks are blaming ownership and some Bloom, and if the year goes badly, I don’t think the owners will fire themselves. Nah. Its more that bowden is a hack who stole a “scoop” from a fake account. And when called out on it. Tried to scrub his entire social accounts and change one to “ralph”. That should get anyone fired. And again. The offseason isnt over. Doing who won the offseason now is asinine. Point being the mookie trade happened in February If this is the roster we have going into ST i will be right there agreeing with you. But its not ST yet.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2022 22:45:21 GMT -5
Or put in a more general terms.
Say on Jan 23rd someone trades for trout or ohtani. Would anyone care who was declared offseason “winners” today December 19th?
I dont think so.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2022 23:08:28 GMT -5
Or put in a more general terms. Say on Jan 23rd someone trades for trout or ohtani. Would anyone care who was declared offseason “winners” today December 19th? I dont think so. True, but do you see the Red Sox making any moves that are truly going to move the needle? I certainly dont. And Bogaerts sure as hell isnt coming back. I have to ask....do you think for even a second the Sox botched the extension offer to Bogaerts or is every thing they do wonderful to you? I have to ask because if I didnt know any better I'd think Sam Kennedy is posting under your handle here and at SOSH.
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Post by manfred on Dec 19, 2022 23:13:31 GMT -5
Or put in a more general terms. Say on Jan 23rd someone trades for trout or ohtani. Would anyone care who was declared offseason “winners” today December 19th? I dont think so. Ok. But if a team, say the “Blue Sleeves,” finished in last place, lost 3/5 of its rotation and its de facto captain while the rest of the division either stayed the same or improved, would you say the Blue Sleeves needed to kick it into overdrive? And even if they made a few nice signings, short of something pretty big, it’d be hard to call it a win? Then you ask, are there any big FAs? No. So big would require a trade, and then the Blue Sleeves might have to give up someone like, er, Marc Breyer, their best prospect? Not so good either.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2022 23:30:13 GMT -5
Or put in a more general terms. Say on Jan 23rd someone trades for trout or ohtani. Would anyone care who was declared offseason “winners” today December 19th? I dont think so. True, but do you see the Red Sox making any moves that are truly going to move the needle? I certainly dont. And Bogaerts sure as hell isnt coming back. I have to ask....do you think for even a second the Sox botched the extension offer to Bogaerts or is every thing they do wonderful to you? I have to ask because if I didnt know any better I'd think Sam Kennedy is posting under your handle here and at SOSH. Yes. I think they could have handled the Xander situation better. But im still withholding judgement on calling this offseason a failure until the offseason is. Over. And as the mods have said. Everyone seems like they are so dug into their beliefs right now, its like trying to teach a dog to drive a stick shift. Nobodys opinion is changing. And im not trying to do that either. I just feel like i should not judge something until such time period is over. But again YMMV
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2022 23:31:29 GMT -5
True, but do you see the Red Sox making any moves that are truly going to move the needle? I certainly dont. And Bogaerts sure as hell isnt coming back. I have to ask....do you think for even a second the Sox botched the extension offer to Bogaerts or is every thing they do wonderful to you? I have to ask because if I didnt know any better I'd think Sam Kennedy is posting under your handle here and at SOSH. Yes. I think they could have handled the Xander situation better. But im still withholding judgement on calling this offseason a failure until the offseason is. Over. And as the mods have said. Everyone seems like they are so dug into their beliefs right now, its like trying to teach a dog to drive a stick shift. Nobodys opinion is changing. And im not trying to do that either. Fair enough. I just have no idea what big things you're expecting.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2022 23:32:44 GMT -5
Yes. I think they could have handled the Xander situation better. But im still withholding judgement on calling this offseason a failure until the offseason is. Over. And as the mods have said. Everyone seems like they are so dug into their beliefs right now, its like trying to teach a dog to drive a stick shift. Nobodys opinion is changing. And im not trying to do that either. Fair enough. I just have no idea what big things you're expecting. Nobody does. Half of the trades that Bloom has made have come out nowhere. So again if the current roster is the one that breaks camp in ST. I will be right there with you calling the offseason a failure. But i feel there are still moves that will be made
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Post by pokeyreesespieces12 on Dec 19, 2022 23:34:09 GMT -5
Or put in a more general terms. Say on Jan 23rd someone trades for trout or ohtani. Would anyone care who was declared offseason “winners” today December 19th? I dont think so.
I mean the article is titled "The biggest winners and losers of the MLB offseason so far."
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2022 23:38:37 GMT -5
Fair enough. I just have no idea what big things you're expecting. Nobody does. Half of the trades that Bloom has made have come out nowhere. They do but they dont move the needle. I have no desire to see them reenact the JBJ trade and Bloon has made it clear he's not trading his top prospects...and I agree with him on that, but if you dont you're not going to get an impactful player. The Piratea aren't moving Reynolds for Dalbec, Duran, and secondary prospects. Some are big on Kepler. I'm not. I'd rather see Conforto signed than them trade for Kepler. Honestly I think their only moves are either Segura or Andrus, Eovaldi or Kluber, and maybe a minor bullpen piece and a bench piece.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 19, 2022 23:46:18 GMT -5
True, but do you see the Red Sox making any moves that are truly going to move the needle? I certainly dont. And Bogaerts sure as hell isnt coming back. I have to ask....do you think for even a second the Sox botched the extension offer to Bogaerts or is every thing they do wonderful to you? I have to ask because if I didnt know any better I'd think Sam Kennedy is posting under your handle here and at SOSH. Yes. I think they could have handled the Xander situation better. But im still withholding judgement on calling this offseason a failure until the offseason is. Over. And as the mods have said. Everyone seems like they are so dug into their beliefs right now, its like trying to teach a dog to drive a stick shift. Nobodys opinion is changing. And im not trying to do that either. I just feel like i should not judge something until such time period is over. But again YMMV
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Post by wisox19 on Dec 20, 2022 0:38:36 GMT -5
Yes. I think they could have handled the Xander situation better. But im still withholding judgement on calling this offseason a failure until the offseason is. Over. And as the mods have said. Everyone seems like they are so dug into their beliefs right now, its like trying to teach a dog to drive a stick shift. Nobodys opinion is changing. And im not trying to do that either. Fair enough. I just have no idea what big things you're expecting. I just can't get past the Xander screw up. He said himself that he would've accepted a Story like deal of 6/140, but they offered 1/30. Trading Vaz, swapping JD for Turner, even looking back on the trades we've waived several of the guys we got back. Just not sure what the identity is here anymore. Cherington was all about the prospects, Dombrowski was all about selling the prospects for MLB talent, I thought Bloom would be a mix of both. What I've seen is that he tries to sell high, buy low but his buys haven't looked great aside from a few.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 20, 2022 9:37:24 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out.
Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster:
Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
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| Brasier | McGuire
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Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen.
On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
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Post by manfred on Dec 20, 2022 9:51:03 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out.
Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster:
Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
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| Brasier | McGuire
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Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen.
On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
They can he better *and* be losers, since they were in last place. The question is are they better *enough*? A second question is are they moving in a good direction. Signing Turner is an improvement over 2022 JDM… who sucked. It is a huge step down from historic JDM. And he is 38. So it is a temporary semi-fix. Kluber is say a push with Wacha. And a temporary fix. So in a year or two, those guys age out, their money is clear, and here we go again. Maybe, say, Mata slots in for Kluber. Good! But there isn’t a clear next banger to take that JDM (prime) slot. So problem deferred. So I think we can argue about marginal improvement… reasonable to say yes, say no, say wait and see. I also think it is more important to ask a) improve enough? and b) moving in the right direction? If they are not much better, signing a 35-year old closer, a 38-year old DH, a stop-gap 2B, a nearly 37-year SP… these don’t advance your long term goals.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 20, 2022 9:55:02 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out.
Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster:
Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
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| Brasier | McGuire
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Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen.
On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
The answer in my eyes to the question of if they're better or worse than last year is I don't know? If they are correct on Yoshida the answer would slide closer to yes to me. Assuming they sign one of Segura/Andrus or acquire some other SS in that type of vein then I do think that the answer on the offensive side of the ball will be yes, or at least a push anyway. The pitching side of things is where it gets murky to me, I know many on here probably disagree and rightfully so but I still have faith Sale can be a front of the rotation type of starter. Probably not the ace he once was but a #2 if he's healthy. I have no reason to think he won't be since his two injuries last year were fluky things unrelated to arm/shoulder/elbow so he should be fresh. I like Bello a lot, I think Whitlock showed enough in his starts to feel pretty comfortable with him and Pivetta is kind of a steady eddy type that every team needs. So I guess I'm sort of bullish on what those four can produce, they don't have Kluber or the equivalent yet so assuming they do get that there's a solid enough 4th starter. Paxton I don't put any stock in pitching more than 10 innings this year, so anything out of him is gravy I guess. I'd take Houck out of the pen and move him over to the rotation personally or at least have him in a role where he's their 6th option at SP above Crawford if/when an injury comes.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 20, 2022 10:26:33 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out.
Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster:
Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
|
| Brasier | McGuire
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Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen.
On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
They can he better *and* be losers, since they were in last place. The question is are they better *enough*? A second question is are they moving in a good direction. Signing Turner is an improvement over 2022 JDM⦠who sucked. It is a huge step down from historic JDM. And he is 38. So it is a temporary semi-fix. Kluber is say a push with Wacha. And a temporary fix. So in a year or two, those guys age out, their money is clear, and here we go again. Maybe, say, Mata slots in for Kluber. Good! But there isnât a clear next banger to take that JDM (prime) slot. So problem deferred. So I think we can argue about marginal improvement⦠reasonable to say yes, say no, say wait and see. I also think it is more important to ask a) improve enough? and b) moving in the right direction? If they are not much better, signing a 35-year old closer, a 38-year old DH, a stop-gap 2B, a nearly 37-year SP⦠these donât advance your long term goals. Okay, yet again with this clarification... They were a "last place team" (that won 78 games with a tougher schedule than they'll have this year) in the season that actually happened. If that is your baseline, then they're adding not only Kluber, but also Sale, Paxton, and hopefully a healthier Story and Kiké.
On the other hand, I think your points about these being marginal improvements are fair... if the baseline for comparison is the roster they went into 2022 with. But that roster projected for a mid-80s win total and a ~50% shot at making the playoffs. So a marginal improvement to that roster is pretty significant.
In both scenarios they're also adding full seasons from Bello and Casas, which perfectly fit two huge areas of need, so that is also significant.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 20, 2022 10:31:23 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out.
Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster:
Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
|
| Brasier | McGuire
|
|
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|
Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen.
On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
The answer in my eyes to the question of if they're better or worse than last year is I don't know? If they are correct on Yoshida the answer would slide closer to yes to me. Assuming they sign one of Segura/Andrus or acquire some other SS in that type of vein then I do think that the answer on the offensive side of the ball will be yes, or at least a push anyway. The pitching side of things is where it gets murky to me, I know many on here probably disagree and rightfully so but I still have faith Sale can be a front of the rotation type of starter. Probably not the ace he once was but a #2 if he's healthy. I have no reason to think he won't be since his two injuries last year were fluky things unrelated to arm/shoulder/elbow so he should be fresh. I like Bello a lot, I think Whitlock showed enough in his starts to feel pretty comfortable with him and Pivetta is kind of a steady eddy type that every team needs. So I guess I'm sort of bullish on what those four can produce, they don't have Kluber or the equivalent yet so assuming they do get that there's a solid enough 4th starter. Paxton I don't put any stock in pitching more than 10 innings this year, so anything out of him is gravy I guess. I'd take Houck out of the pen and move him over to the rotation personally or at least have him in a role where he's their 6th option at SP above Crawford if/when an injury comes. Yeah, "I don't know" is probably the best answer. Seems like there are really wide error bars throughout the rotation. And they placed a really big bet on Yoshida, and I don't think any of us really know how that's going to pan out, so... guess we'll just see!
ADD: Choosing "winners" and "losers" for the offseason is like when they do it for the draft the day after the draft. By definition, all the pundits are really doing is measuring the team's moves against the conventional wisdom. Being dumber than the conventional wisdom looks bad; but being smarter than the conventional wisdom looks just as bad. (Exhibit A: drafting Nick Yorke.) No way to know until they play the games.
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Post by manfred on Dec 20, 2022 10:46:24 GMT -5
They can he better *and* be losers, since they were in last place. The question is are they better *enough*? A second question is are they moving in a good direction. Signing Turner is an improvement over 2022 JDM⦠who sucked. It is a huge step down from historic JDM. And he is 38. So it is a temporary semi-fix. Kluber is say a push with Wacha. And a temporary fix. So in a year or two, those guys age out, their money is clear, and here we go again. Maybe, say, Mata slots in for Kluber. Good! But there isnât a clear next banger to take that JDM (prime) slot. So problem deferred. So I think we can argue about marginal improvement⦠reasonable to say yes, say no, say wait and see. I also think it is more important to ask a) improve enough? and b) moving in the right direction? If they are not much better, signing a 35-year old closer, a 38-year old DH, a stop-gap 2B, a nearly 37-year SP⦠these donât advance your long term goals. Okay, yet again with this clarification... They were a "last place team" (that won 78 games with a tougher schedule than they'll have this year) in the season that actually happened. If that is your baseline, then they're adding not only Kluber, but also Sale, Paxton, and hopefully a healthier Story and Kiké.
On the other hand, I think your points about these being marginal improvements are fair... if the baseline for comparison is the roster they went into 2022 with. But that roster projected for a mid-80s win total and a ~50% shot at making the playoffs. So a marginal improvement to that roster is pretty significant.
In both scenarios they're also adding full seasons from Bello and Casas, which perfectly fit two huge areas of need, so that is also significant.
Well, again from me: I don’t view Paxton as an improvement over Hill. I don’t view Sale as a guaranteed improvement over Eovaldi. I don’t think Kluber is an improvement on Wacha in theory, and it is hard to imagine he could be in practice, since Wacha was great last year. I am not sure what Kiké provides — he has a wide range of outcomes. Story should be better, though his arm is obviously suspect. So I am not sure this team is better than the *projected* team last year. I know that many of the reasons the wheels came of have been replicated. They had health issues with some of the guys they are counting on *more* this year. And they added (or theoretically in your scenario) other old players who create health risk. So they have hardly inoculated themselves against a repetition of those problems. And as for Casas… I like him. I hope he is good and fast. But this time last year people were expecting good things from Dalbec.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 20, 2022 11:05:13 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out.
Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster:
Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
|
| Brasier | McGuire
|
|
|
|
Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen.
On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
The answer in my eyes to the question of if they're better or worse than last year is I don't know? If they are correct on Yoshida the answer would slide closer to yes to me. Assuming they sign one of Segura/Andrus or acquire some other SS in that type of vein then I do think that the answer on the offensive side of the ball will be yes, or at least a push anyway. The pitching side of things is where it gets murky to me, I know many on here probably disagree and rightfully so but I still have faith Sale can be a front of the rotation type of starter. Probably not the ace he once was but a #2 if he's healthy. I have no reason to think he won't be since his two injuries last year were fluky things unrelated to arm/shoulder/elbow so he should be fresh. I like Bello a lot, I think Whitlock showed enough in his starts to feel pretty comfortable with him and Pivetta is kind of a steady eddy type that every team needs. So I guess I'm sort of bullish on what those four can produce, they don't have Kluber or the equivalent yet so assuming they do get that there's a solid enough 4th starter. Paxton I don't put any stock in pitching more than 10 innings this year, so anything out of him is gravy I guess. I'd take Houck out of the pen and move him over to the rotation personally or at least have him in a role where he's their 6th option at SP above Crawford if/when an injury comes. I'm similarly bullish on the pitching. I don't see any reason to discount Paxton either, aside from him picking up his option. In theory he made it through TJ fine, though, and just strained a lat while coming back. As far as I know from internet searches, that's something that either is bad enough to need surgery or that should clear up on its own in time for spring training. The fact that he hasn't gotten surgery, then, says to me he should be ready. And I believe someone specifically reported he'll be ready to start the year, so it's not just speculation. So, while injuries of course aren't out of the question, I don't see a particular reason to expect them. As you pointed out, Sale's were fluky. TJ is normal and usually is recovered from fully. And to my knowledge Paxton hasn't had chronic lat issues. So, I'm expecting both to contribute this year. Paxton in particular could have some sort of innings cap coming back from TJ, but if so even getting there would be a huge win. We saw from Sale in limited action last year that his stuff looks great. Paxton apparently hit 95 mph in a simulated game last year and was quite good earlier in his career, so if healthy, I'm expecting him to perform well too. So, I would love another SP for depth, but the guys already on the roster still look like a big upgrade to me over last year's opening day squad: Eovaldi (can he stay healthy?) Wacha (was his September real? Isn't he more of a reliever nowadays?) Hill (is he washed and can he stay healthy?) Pivetta (consistent, but more of a back end guy) Houck (how deep into games can he go? can he be consistent?) Depth: Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold This year: Sale (Still likely a #1 or #2 level starter) Paxton (Likely innings cap, and hasn't pitched in a while; higher risk, but also probably #2 starter upside) Whitlock (Finally healthy and stretched out) Bello (Looked great last year and he's gotten some experience under his belt; very optimistic about him) Pivetta (consistent, but more of a back end guy) Depth: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy, Walter, Mata, Seabold Even without another SP, this looks substantially better than last year. Having a bit more depth would be nice, though, even if it's just a Rich Hill type of guy. I don't think we specifically need a Kluber type. So, I see an upgraded rotation and an upgraded bullpen. Offensively the lineup looks deeper too, and this is without a likely middle IF signing. Already the only weak spot is catcher, and McGuire also hit really well for us in a small sample last year (145 wRC+ in 108 PA), so with platoon splits on their side maybe he and Wong won't be entirely useless. Yes, not having X in the middle of the lineup will be missed, but it'll be great not having automatic outs at the end in the form of Franchbec, JBJ/Duran, and Plawecki. This lineup might have Kiké Hernandez hitting 9th, and there's a lot more contact and eye there in Casas, Turner, and Yoshida. It's going to be a pain for opposing pitchers to turn over. The bench looks better too. Last year Arauz was on the opening day roster. So was Travis Shaw. Dalbec was the starting 1B and he might not even make the roster this year. Arroyo was on the team, but he was expected to be used in the OF a lot... Now we have Arroyo in the IF (assuming a starting middle IF acquisition) and Refsnyder as a darned good 4th OF in the outfield. Our DH can play 1B, or 3B in a pinch, so all positions are covered even with one spot on the bench free. We could roster another utility guy, or go with speed (Duran, Hamilton). Tons of options there. --- I'm rambling again. Key point is that I already feel there's reason for optimism on both sides of the ball. People are panning this offseason on the premise that the team isn't getting much better, but compared to last year's opening day roster the only real downgrade is at SS imo. I'd take the other 25 guys on this year's roster in a heartbeat. I understand being upset X is gone, but I don't think there's reason for doom and gloom about the team's potential in 2023 either.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2022 11:28:28 GMT -5
On the one hand, people love to post links to paywalled Athletic articles without comment or relevant quotes. On the other hand, the articles are reliably terrible and don't really add any value above the discussion we're already having here. So I guess it cancels out. Anyways, as for The Offseason So Far... I think a dumb way to judge is by just assuming they'll start the season with the roster they have now. A fair way to judge it is to look at the moves so far and consider what they've put themselves in a position to be able to do going forward. The most obvious path-of-least-resistance thing to do would be to add one of Andrus/Segura and one of Eovaldi/Kluber. So let's say they go into next season with this roster: Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen | Yoshida | Refsnyder
| Sale | Jansen | Turner | Arroyo | Kluber | Martin | Devers | Wong | Paxton | Schreiber | Story |
| Bello | Rodriguez | Casas |
| Whitlock | Houck | Segura |
| Pivetta | Barnes | Verdugo |
| Crawford
| Taylor | Kiké |
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| Brasier | McGuire
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Additions in bold. So did they improve the team in the offseason? They lost JDM but replaced him with Turner. They lost Bogaerts but replaced him with Segura and Yoshida. They added Kluber. They lost Strahm but added a bunch to the bullpen. On balance, is this team better or worse than what they had last year? I think the answer to that question should determine whether they've been "winners" or "losers."
Here are the ZiPS projections on the current starters in fWAR: Sale 1.2 Paxton 1.9 Bello 2.4 Pivetta 1.6 Whitlock 2.1 Houck 1.4 Crawford 0.8 He has Eovaldi - who people here are mentioning as more or less interchangeable with Kluber - as 2.1 That's basically a basket of #4, 5 and 6 starters. Sure, if Sale and Paxton are what they were, then we may have a #2 and 2/3. But right now, this is not a rotation that screams to me "Contender!" Turner has to stay healthy and continue to defy, or at least, mostly fool the aging curve. Devers is projected a 4.2 fWAR (in his walk year - seems a bit low). Story projected as having a 3.4 fWAR - very welcome if that's accurate. Casas projected as a 1.2 fWAR guy in his first full year. McGuire projected a 1.0 fWAR; Wong a 1.2 Verdugo projected 2.2 fWAR Kiké projected 2.4 fWAR Meanwhile: Yoshida has to defy what all the other evaluators in MLB seemed to think he is (and I hope he does), a #4 OF. They lost a projected 4.5 fWAR SS and need to replace that production or have one or more of the above grab a significant percentage of it. The pen looks better, but that's SO tough to forecast. I remember how happy we were with the Diekman acquisition last year. Seems to be one reliever per team that always gets over-paid and under-delivers. Bloom's not done (I hope), but right now, this looks like they're running in place to me. Unless we assume complete health and significant over-achievement by some players. Because that always happens.
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