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Post by manfred on Dec 19, 2022 15:40:52 GMT -5
Upside I guess is if he does opt in for some reason at least it hurts the team less in ‘24 than it would otherwise. I’m okay with $15M for Turner if they can still get two other guys to fill out the roster, but if this forces them to go down a level from Kluber or go from like Andrus to Iglesias I’ll be pretty annoyed by it. That assumes they aren’t planning to break the limit by a few million again like last year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 19, 2022 15:44:26 GMT -5
Upside I guess is if he does opt in for some reason at least it hurts the team less in ‘24 than it would otherwise. I’m okay with $15M for Turner if they can still get two other guys to fill out the roster, but if this forces them to go down a level from Kluber or go from like Andrus to Iglesias I’ll be pretty annoyed by it. That assumes they aren’t planning to break the limit by a few million again like last year. True! That would also be a frustrating outcome.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 19, 2022 16:03:40 GMT -5
Upside I guess is if he does opt in for some reason at least it hurts the team less in ‘24 than it would otherwise. I’m okay with $15M for Turner if they can still get two other guys to fill out the roster, but if this forces them to go down a level from Kluber or go from like Andrus to Iglesias I’ll be pretty annoyed by it. That assumes they aren’t planning to break the limit by a few million again like last year. If they're planning to break the limit by lots of millions this year, though, then that'd be okay. They they could reset again in 2024 when they again have a bunch of money coming off the books and there is a better 2025 FA class, and Turner (if he opts in) would be less of a tax hit so that would help as well.
Not quite sure how they go over by a LOT this year, though. They'd have to do like Segura, Eovaldi, and Kluber, which would put them like $20 million over I think? Which, hey, why not.
ADD: Well now I'm real curious what the plan is. They have to add one of Andrus and Segura, and they have to add one of Eovaldi and Kluber, and with Turner at $15 million, that means they almost have to go over the CBT, and if they're going to do that they might as well go way over, which means they might as well sign both Eovaldi and Kluber.
I'm not seeing a way around this logic, unless there's some sort of trade scenario involved. Which of course would also be interesting.
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Post by jmei on Dec 19, 2022 16:42:32 GMT -5
It would not be surprising if they looked at the quality of their current roster and the list of remaining free agents and decided that 2024 luxury tax space is more valuable than 2023 luxury tax space at this point (because they are likely to be a fringe contender in 2023 at best and there weren't a lot of other places to spend their 2023 payroll) and decided to try and frontload the contract rather than taking up more valuable 2024 space.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 19, 2022 16:57:33 GMT -5
I liked Turmer from the beginning, and then quickly decided he wasn't a roster fit.
Some comparisons of Situation-adjusted Batting Wins Above Average. The first figure is Turner.
1.9 to -0.5 (2022) 4.5 to 2.7 (2021-2022) 6.6 to 3.6 (2020 to 2022)
You're probably wondering whether the second figure is Xander or JDM, right?
It's both of them combined.
I like this lineup a lot:
Yoshida Story Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo catcher Andrus
Yoshida, Casas, and Turner are a huge upgrade over JBJ, Dalbec, and JDM. Kiké and Story are hopefully and credibly a big upgrade over Kiké and Story. The downgrade from Xander to Andrus is smaller than you think ... they were identical last year when you include Sit-Hit.
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Dalbec would't play an inning now, so they need a LHB outfielder who can play CF if they want to be able to use Kile in the infield. That could be Duran, but with Yoshida in LF and Verdugo in RF they need a defensive stud, not a stiff. And of course a stud could replace Yoshida in the 9th with a lead, with Verdugo moving to LF.
D-Backs have been widely expected to trade either Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy, so that's doable.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 19, 2022 17:19:28 GMT -5
Speier is back to them being able to push some of the '23 money to '24 the way the contract is worded
Alex Speier @alexspeier Upon further review of the further review! If the buyout is $6.7M, it would be 50% of the 2024 salary ($13.4M), which would mean the 2nd year *would* be treated as guaranteed, which would mean an AAV for CBT purposes of $10.85M.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 19, 2022 17:20:04 GMT -5
It would not be surprising if they looked at the quality of their current roster and the list of remaining free agents and decided that 2024 luxury tax space is more valuable than 2023 luxury tax space at this point (because they are likely to be a fringe contender in 2023 at best and there weren't a lot of other places to spend their 2023 payroll) and decided to try and frontload the contract rather than taking up more valuable 2024 space. Could be, especially if they actually extend Devers. Then again, the current list of potential 2023-24 Free Agents is Ohtani, Devers, Manny Machado (31), Julio Urías (27), Aaron Nola (31) and...uh... www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.html
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 19, 2022 17:24:11 GMT -5
I liked Turmer from the beginning, and then quickly decided he wasn't a roster fit.
Some comparisons of Situation-adjusted Batting Wins Above Average. The first figure is Turner.
1.9 to -0.5 (2022) 4.5 to 2.7 (2021-2022) 6.6 to 3.6 (2020 to 2022)
You're probably wondering whether the second figure is Xander or JDM, right?
It's both of them combined.
I like this lineup a lot:
Yoshida Story Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo catcher Andrus
Yoshida, Casas, and Turner are a huge upgrade over JBJ, Dalbec, and JDM. Kiké and Story are hopefully and credibly a big upgrade over Kiké and Story. The downgrade from Xander to Andrus is smaller than you think ... they were identical last year when you include Sit-Hit.
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Dalbec would't play an inning now, so they need a LHB outfielder who can play CF if they want to be able to use Kile in the infield. That could be Duran, but with Yoshida in LF and Verdugo in RF they need a defensive stud, not a stiff. And of course a stud could replace Yoshida in the 9th with a lead, with Verdugo moving to LF.
D-Backs have been widely expected to trade either Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy, so that's doable.
Another excellent insight; bravo, Eric! I’ve definitely aligned myself with Andrus > Segura after you’re informative post a couple weeks back. I think the trade for Thomas or McCarthy also makes a lot of sense in this context. I’ve been over the Duran experiment since middle of last season — time to move on from him.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 19, 2022 17:40:47 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 19, 2022 17:48:36 GMT -5
Speier is back to them being able to push some of the '23 money to '24 the way the contract is worded Alex Speier @alexspeier Upon further review of the further review! If the buyout is $6.7M, it would be 50% of the 2024 salary ($13.4M), which would mean the 2nd year *would* be treated as guaranteed, which would mean an AAV for CBT purposes of $10.85M. These numbers also make it marginally more likely he opts in for ‘24, I would think. Turner would be risking $7M instead of $4M. Not going to be surprised if this flips again though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 19, 2022 17:55:40 GMT -5
It would not be surprising if they looked at the quality of their current roster and the list of remaining free agents and decided that 2024 luxury tax space is more valuable than 2023 luxury tax space at this point (because they are likely to be a fringe contender in 2023 at best and there weren't a lot of other places to spend their 2023 payroll) and decided to try and frontload the contract rather than taking up more valuable 2024 space. Could be, especially if they actually extend Devers. Then again, the current list of potential 2023-24 Free Agents is Ohtani, Devers, Manny Machado (31), Julio Urías (27), Aaron Nola (31) and...uh... www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.htmlSome other good pitching I think - Darvish, Scherzer, Snell, Severino, Yamamoto (from Yoshida’s former team). Lee from Korea looks like he might be a relatively big ticket also.
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Post by classylefthander on Dec 19, 2022 18:15:15 GMT -5
It would not be surprising if they looked at the quality of their current roster and the list of remaining free agents and decided that 2024 luxury tax space is more valuable than 2023 luxury tax space at this point (because they are likely to be a fringe contender in 2023 at best and there weren't a lot of other places to spend their 2023 payroll) and decided to try and frontload the contract rather than taking up more valuable 2024 space. Could be, especially if they actually extend Devers. Then again, the current list of potential 2023-24 Free Agents is Ohtani, Devers, Manny Machado (31), Julio Urías (27), Aaron Nola (31) and...uh... www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.htmlMatt Chapman. 3B. At age 31, could be about a Story contract, a little more.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 19, 2022 18:31:30 GMT -5
It would not be surprising if they looked at the quality of their current roster and the list of remaining free agents and decided that 2024 luxury tax space is more valuable than 2023 luxury tax space at this point (because they are likely to be a fringe contender in 2023 at best and there weren't a lot of other places to spend their 2023 payroll) and decided to try and frontload the contract rather than taking up more valuable 2024 space. Could be, especially if they actually extend Devers. Then again, the current list of potential 2023-24 Free Agents is Ohtani, Devers, Manny Machado (31), Julio Urías (27), Aaron Nola (31) and...uh... www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.htmlSpoiler alert!! I’m back from the future and the Red Sox decided not to sign any of these guys. Too rich for their blood. They opted to sign Dylan Bundy instead.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 19, 2022 18:56:24 GMT -5
Spoiler alert!! I’m back from the future and the Red Sox decided not to sign any of these guys. Too rich for their blood. They opted to sign Dylan Bundy instead. Well, I think Turner picks up that option and is thanking all the baseball gods he's getting 8 figures at age 39. As for the Sox, the prize next year is Ohtani, but he says he wants to sign with a winning team. So, unless the Sox go deep into the playoffs, there's no way he gives Boston the time of day. Plus, the front office would have to radically change their player acquisition strategy because you're talking about signing an elite two-way player who's floor will probably be $55-60M AAV and who will probably be looking for 10-12 years.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2022 1:12:13 GMT -5
Didn't we just acquire an interesting guy? Oh ... am I actually in his thread? Yes! That saves me a couple of keystrokes. The more I look at the Situational Hitting Value Differential numbers, the more I'm convinced that they are largely driven by: A) The ability to hit the excellent pitchers you see in Late and Close situations B) The degree to which you feast on the marginal pitchers you see with one team up 5 or more runs. These are small samples. Turner has averaged 66 PA Late and Close and 58 in Blowouts per year (excluding 2020). If the results jumped about from year to year, we'd have nothing. But they don't.
Here are Turner's sOPS (OPS relative to league) Late and Close since the Dodgers turned him into a star in 2015, and then, directly beneath, his numbers in all other non-blowout situations (yes, I had to calculate that with algebra!)
061, 108, 208, 148, 147, 179, 132, 182 158, 122, 149, 136, 122, 148, 134, 110 His blowout numbers are noisier, but only because he had just 62 PA combined in 2017-18 (36 then 26). You can still see a marked change in performance over the last 3 seasons, though.
Here's his career with the Dodgers: JT L&C Oth Blwt PA L, B 2015-16 77 137 143 121, 118 2017-19 172 135 184 186, 131 2020-22 158 127 92 177, 176 In mid-career he was 27% better Late and Close than you'd expect given how well he hit in ordinary situations and the pitchers he was facing. In the last three years that's faded all the way to a 24% gain.
In his first two years when was worse than expected Late and Close, he was marginally better in garbage time than expected -- not meaningfully so. In his prime he was a garbage time monster, and when he hit 35, it looks like he asked himself whether all that effort was worth it.
I couldn't help looking at Xander and JDM.
X actually had really good Score Splits (to coin a term) in 2020 and was absolutely neutral in 2021-2 (140, 135, 142). But his performance in his highest leverage situations the last two years was bad beyond belief. In 2021, in his most important 25 PA (excluding IBB) he was 1/20, 3 BB, 2 SF. Last year he made 13 outs in his 13 most important PA -- a single and a GDP.
I'll have more to say about Xander later, maybe.
JDM was just awful in 2020, so I added up 2019, 2021, and 2022:
99 / 135 / 172. 265 PA Late and Close, and 284 in Garbage Time.
Compare 'em:
L&C oth GT
099 135 172 Then
158 127 092 Now
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 20, 2022 9:06:07 GMT -5
I think every number with Turner has to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. He's 38 and will DH 90-95% of the time and had a .788 OPS with 13 HR last year. Not only that, but he hasn't exactly been a beacon of health either. 2022 - 128 GP 2021 - 151 GP 2019 - 135 GP 2018 - 103 GP 2017 - 130 GP
I think he's potentially an upgrade from JDM, but not by much.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 20, 2022 9:49:36 GMT -5
Hernandez needs to be batting 9th. His 2021 season was his outlier season, he is a career wRC+ 97 hitter. Him hitting 6th would not be ideal at all
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2022 9:59:27 GMT -5
Hernandez needs to be batting 9th. His 2021 season was his outlier season, he is a career wRC+ 97 hitter. Him hitting 6th would not be ideal at all His 2021 and his 2018 seasons are his two outlier seasons. 2018 was better than 2021: .256 .336 .470 118wRC+ And he hit .408 .423 .837 with 5 hrs in 11 games in the 2021 post-season.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2022 10:04:53 GMT -5
Hernandez needs to be batting 9th. His 2021 season was his outlier season, he is a career wRC+ 97 hitter. Him hitting 6th would not be ideal at all His 2021 and his 2018 seasons are his two outlier seasons. 2018 was better than 2021: .256 .336 .470 118wRC+ Also, MLB SuperBall™ in use. And he hit .408 .423 .837 with 5 hrs in 11 games in the 2021 post-season. Small Sample.®
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2022 11:26:01 GMT -5
His 2021 and his 2018 seasons are his two outlier seasons. 2018 was better than 2021: .256 .336 .470 118wRC+ Also, MLB SuperBall™ in use. And he hit .408 .423 .837 with 5 hrs in 11 games in the 2021 post-season. Small Sample.® The post-season is a small sample but leaving out of 2021 that he hit 5 more home runs is just misleading.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2022 11:30:34 GMT -5
His 2021 and his 2018 seasons are his two outlier seasons. 2018 was better than 2021: .256 .336 .470 118wRC+ Also, MLB SuperBall™ in use. [...] mlb in 2017: .255 .324 .426 .750 2018: .248 .318 .409 .728 2019 .252 .323 .435 .758 2021: .244 .317 .411 .728
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 20, 2022 11:36:12 GMT -5
The post-season is a small sample but leaving out of 2021 that he hit 5 more wine runs stats is just misleading. Also for his career he has 69 games and 194 post-season PAs and a 136 wRC+ in them. It's not that small a sample. And, in the regular season for his career, he's been above 100 wRC+ in medium and high leverage situations. His numbers are weighed down by poorer performance in low leverage, but when it's counted he's been above average. Would love to see Eric's splits numbers on him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2022 23:04:47 GMT -5
I think every number with Turner has to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. He's 38 and will DH 90-95% of the time and had a .788 OPS with 13 HR last year. Not only that, but he hasn't exactly been a beacon of health either. 2022 - 128 GP 2021 - 151 GP 2019 - 135 GP 2018 - 103 GP 2017 - 130 GP I think he's potentially an upgrade from JDM, but not by much. Using a simple Marcel projection (no age adjustment), Turner projects to 2.9 Batting Wins Above Average (with situation adjustment) and JDM projects to be 0.3. Turner will lose a bit off his number by DH'ing.
And this is including his entire 2022. Apparently, his offseason routine was hampered more than most by the lockout and shortened ST. On May 9 he had a 33 wRC+ (.168 / .226 / .242) in 106 PA, with a -.63 Win Probability Added.
Thereafter he had 425 PA and hit .306 / .379 / .488 for a 146 wRC+ and 2.54 WPA.
And it wasn't a case of staying hot the whole time, a feat that's hard to repeat. He had a 14-game, 59 PA stretch in June where he had a .450 OPS, a terrible 8 days in August (30 PA, .387 OPS), and an even worse end to the season (34 PA, .362), which continued into the Padres series. But because he does hit good pitching unusually well, he has a career .830 OPS in an insane 368 career post-season PA. The Dodgers made the playoffs every year he was with them and he was nearly as good in post- as he was in regular-season (.835, .863).
I've had great success projecting guys by tossing out chunks of PT that seemed as if they should not be predictive. Even without doing that for Turner (because it's too much work to measure the before and after situational hitting), he projects to be a very big upgrade to JDM.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 20, 2022 23:07:27 GMT -5
I think every number with Turner has to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. He's 38 and will DH 90-95% of the time and had a .788 OPS with 13 HR last year. Not only that, but he hasn't exactly been a beacon of health either. 2022 - 128 GP 2021 - 151 GP 2019 - 135 GP 2018 - 103 GP 2017 - 130 GP I think he's potentially an upgrade from JDM, but not by much. Using a simple Marcel projection (no age adjustment), Turner projects to 2.9 Batting Wins Above Average (with situation adjustment) and JDM projects to be 0.3. Turner will lose a bit off his number by DH'ing. And this is including his entire 2022. Apparently, his offseason routine was hampered more than most by the lockout and shortened ST. On May 9 he had a 33 wRC+ (.168 / .226 / .242) in 106 PA, with a -.63 Win Probability Added.
Thereafter he had 425 PA and hit .306 / .379 / .488 for a 146 wRC+ and 2.54 WPA. I've had great success projecting guys by tossing out chunks of PT that seemed as if they should not be predictive. Even without doing that for Turner (because it's too much work to measure the before and after situational hitting), he projects to be a very big upgrade to JDM.
Well, that's very encouraging to see. I just hope age and injury don't catch up to him. I'm puzzled why the Dodgers valued JDM more than Turner. It couldn't just be the minor cost savings, could it? I'm not saying the Red Sox didn't value Justin Turner more than JDM either. Just that JDM signed first indicating to me that the Dodgers had the stronger preference.
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Post by manfred on Dec 20, 2022 23:09:36 GMT -5
I think every number with Turner has to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. He's 38 and will DH 90-95% of the time and had a .788 OPS with 13 HR last year. Not only that, but he hasn't exactly been a beacon of health either. 2022 - 128 GP 2021 - 151 GP 2019 - 135 GP 2018 - 103 GP 2017 - 130 GP I think he's potentially an upgrade from JDM, but not by much. Using a simple Marcel projection (no age adjustment), Turner projects to 2.9 Batting Wins Above Average (with situation adjustment) and JDM projects to be 0.3. Turner will lose a bit off his number by DH'ing.
And this is including his entire 2022. Apparently, his offseason routine was hampered more than most by the lockout and shortened ST. On May 9 he had a 33 wRC+ (.168 / .226 / .242) in 106 PA, with a -.63 Win Probability Added.
Thereafter he had 425 PA and hit .306 / .379 / .488 for a 146 wRC+ and 2.54 WPA.
I've had great success projecting guys by tossing out chunks of PT that seemed as if they should not be predictive. Even without doing that for Turner (because it's too much work to measure the before and after situational hitting), he projects to be a very big upgrade to JDM.
I’m not disputing, but I am curious if you account for age. I mean, at some point guys get old. What did JDM look like going into last season? Because, as they say in boxing, guys can get old overnight. Not about Turner, but wondering how that factors in.
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