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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 20, 2022 23:53:26 GMT -5
Using a simple Marcel projection (no age adjustment), Turner projects to 2.9 Batting Wins Above Average (with situation adjustment) and JDM projects to be 0.3. Turner will lose a bit off his number by DH'ing. And this is including his entire 2022. Apparently, his offseason routine was hampered more than most by the lockout and shortened ST. On May 9 he had a 33 wRC+ (.168 / .226 / .242) in 106 PA, with a -.63 Win Probability Added.
Thereafter he had 425 PA and hit .306 / .379 / .488 for a 146 wRC+ and 2.54 WPA. I've had great success projecting guys by tossing out chunks of PT that seemed as if they should not be predictive. Even without doing that for Turner (because it's too much work to measure the before and after situational hitting), he projects to be a very big upgrade to JDM.
Well, that's very encouraging to see. I just hope age and injury don't catch up to him. I'm puzzled why the Dodgers valued JDM more than Turner. It couldn't just be the minor cost savings, could it? I'm not saying the Red Sox didn't value Justin Turner more than JDM either. Just that JDM signed first indicating to me that the Dodgers had the stronger preference. Who said they valued him more? They paid substantially less, maybe they wanted to spend less.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 21, 2022 1:50:23 GMT -5
Exactly. The Sox and Dodgers traded DHs and in doing so they knocked about $10M off the cost of that position: the Sox by not offering a QO, the Dodgers with the $2M buyout. Others have mentioned this as the motivation for this "crypto-swap".
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 21, 2022 6:21:09 GMT -5
Exactly. The Sox and Dodgers traded DHs and in doing so they knocked about $10M off the cost of that position: the Sox by not offering a QO, the Dodgers with the $2M buyout. Others have mentioned this as the motivation for this "crypto-swap". There's also this. Here's raw Batting Wins Above Average, last four years.
JDM / JT
3.1 / 2.2 -0.7 / 0.8 2.1 / 2.0 1.4 / 1.5
Keep in mind that JT's numbers would be a bit less if he had been a DH.
Swapping Turner for JDM seems very sound if you just need a DH.
Now, the same numbers including situational hitting.
0.5 / 0.5
-0.8 / 1.9
1.7 / 2.6
-0.4 / 2.1
The Dodgers do not seem to be looking much at situational hitting adjustments or (largely the same thing) splits by opponent quality. I'm guessing the Sox are doing the latter, as they would have motivation to do so playing in one of the toughest divisions in MLB history.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 21, 2022 10:02:23 GMT -5
Well, that's very encouraging to see. I just hope age and injury don't catch up to him. I'm puzzled why the Dodgers valued JDM more than Turner. It couldn't just be the minor cost savings, could it? I'm not saying the Red Sox didn't value Justin Turner more than JDM either. Just that JDM signed first indicating to me that the Dodgers had the stronger preference. Who said they valued him more? They paid substantially less, maybe they wanted to spend less. JT is getting 8.3 this year. JDM is getting 10.0 this year. JT does have a second year vs JDM in which he has a player opt out and if he doesn't exercise it would get 11.4. So, if I'm understanding it correctly, they would have saved on Turner for this year and (more than likely) be on the hook for 1 more year. I guess it's reason to believe they preferred the 35 year old JDM for 1 year than the 38 year old JT for 2, even if JD is the lesser player.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 22, 2022 0:12:24 GMT -5
If you want to know how folks here in LA are taking the news of Turner leaving the dodgers They just aired a 30 min special on Turner carer with the team
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 22, 2022 0:21:43 GMT -5
“BTW…Justin Turner is still alive…He just plays for Red Sox now.”
To some here in LA that means he is dead lol
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 22, 2022 1:14:41 GMT -5
“BTW…Justin Turner is still alive…He just plays for Red Sox now.” To some here in LA that means he is dead lol As an LA resident as well, I can say Dodger fans are not happy. One of Turner’s most valuable intangibles is his ability to deal with big market pressures and be a clubhouse leader. He was truly beloved here. EDIT: a side note that JD virtually brought nothing to the table as far as intangibles outside being an inspo to his teammates for his work ethic and hitting tips. And frankly, it was always downright cringeworthy whenever he started voicing his questionable non-baseball opinions to the public.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 22, 2022 1:32:52 GMT -5
“BTW…Justin Turner is still alive…He just plays for Red Sox now.” To some here in LA that means he is dead lol As an LA resident as well, I can say Dodger fans are not happy. One of Turner’s most valuable intangibles is his ability to deal with big market pressures and be a clubhouse leader. He was truly beloved here. EDIT: a side note that JD virtually brought nothing to the table as far as intangibles outside being an inspo to his teammates for his work ethic and hitting tips. And frankly, it was always downright cringeworthy whenever he started voicing his questionable opinions to the public. Yup. You can see why, in that video of Ned Colletti Talking about turner
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 8:51:23 GMT -5
Dodgers have low key taken a step back this offseason, losing Turner and Turner. That lineup has some weak spots, and the pitching might be more good than great.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 22, 2022 9:01:49 GMT -5
Dodgers have low key taken a step back this offseason, losing Turner and Turner. That lineup has some weak spots, and the pitching might be more good than great. Well, the bad news for other teams is when you win 111 games and have a run differential of 334, you can take a step back and still be an absolute powerhouse.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 9:11:12 GMT -5
Dodgers have low key taken a step back this offseason, losing Turner and Turner. That lineup has some weak spots, and the pitching might be more good than great. Well, the bad news for other teams is when you win 111 games and have a run differential of 334, you can take a step back and still be an absolute powerhouse. True! But then again, the Red Sox won 108 games in 2018, and then won just 84 the next season with essentially the same roster. And the Dodgers have downgraded more than the Red Sox did.
(Crazily, Devers went from below average in 2018 to a 6+ WAR player in 2019, and the team still finished 24 games worse.)
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 9:16:40 GMT -5
Well, the bad news for other teams is when you win 111 games and have a run differential of 334, you can take a step back and still be an absolute powerhouse. True! But then again, the Red Sox won 108 games in 2018, and then won just 84 the next season with essentially the same roster. And the Dodgers have downgraded more than the Red Sox did.
(Crazily, Devers went from below average in 2018 to a 6+ WAR player in 2019, and the team still finished 24 games worse.)
I don’t think Justin makes a big difference. Losing Trea is brutal. But they have their own guys like Lux. Isn’t this exactly what people are advocating here? I thought this was “sustainability.”
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 10:19:54 GMT -5
True! But then again, the Red Sox won 108 games in 2018, and then won just 84 the next season with essentially the same roster. And the Dodgers have downgraded more than the Red Sox did.
(Crazily, Devers went from below average in 2018 to a 6+ WAR player in 2019, and the team still finished 24 games worse.)
I don’t think Justin makes a big difference. Losing Trea is brutal. But they have their own guys like Lux. Isn’t this exactly what people are advocating here? I thought this was “sustainability.” You seem to be in one of your "make everything about one thing" moods today... Yes, they have good young players and they'll probably be a very good team this year, but Turner is every bit the loss for them that Bogaerts is for the Red Sox, and maybe Lux will really pop this year but so far he's been a bit underwhelming. Plus I'd certainly take the Padres to win the division, which would mean the Dodgers would have to play the wild card round.
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 10:26:47 GMT -5
I don’t think Justin makes a big difference. Losing Trea is brutal. But they have their own guys like Lux. Isn’t this exactly what people are advocating here? I thought this was “sustainability.” You seem to be in one of your "make everything about one thing" moods today... Yes, they have good young players and they'll probably be a very good team this year, but Turner is every bit the loss for them that Bogaerts is for the Red Sox, and maybe Lux will really pop this year but so far he's been a bit underwhelming. Plus I'd certainly take the Padres to win the division, which would mean the Dodgers would have to play the wild card round. Could be. Full season of Soto. Crazy left side of the infield. I’m not sold on the Padres pitching. Amazing to think that setting others aside, the Mets and Padres are in an insane race that only one (at most) can win. I think it is fun.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 6, 2023 15:07:53 GMT -5
Checking back in on Turner's contract situation, wonder if anyone can answer this. It seems like his AAV hit for 2023 will be 10.85M because the buyout is only 50% of the player option, making the assumption for luxury tax purposes be that he will take the option.
So then what happens if he does decline the option and take the buyout? Would the Red Sox get a $3.3M credit on the 2024 tax bill (making the effective 2024 hit, if bought out, $3.4M)?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 6, 2023 15:14:24 GMT -5
Checking back in on Turner's contract situation, wonder if anyone can answer this. It seems like his AAV hit for 2023 will be 10.85M because the buyout is only 50% of the player option, making the assumption for luxury tax purposes be that he will take the option. So then what happens if he does decline the option and take the buyout? Would the Red Sox get a $3.3M credit on the 2024 tax bill (making the effective 2024 hit, if bought out, $3.4M)?
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 6, 2023 16:34:09 GMT -5
I feel old...
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Post by geostorm on Jan 7, 2023 14:57:24 GMT -5
...a bit surprised...#2 being issued to Turner
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 8, 2023 0:45:02 GMT -5
Turner having 1 good year and opting out might work out fine. If Niko Kavadas figures out AA reasonably quickly he could move up to Worcester and be in line to be the DH at age 25, so the timeline could sync up leaving the 2024 DH spot available for Kavadas if he destroys minor league pitching in 2023 like he did in 2022.
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Post by geostorm on Jan 8, 2023 1:32:10 GMT -5
Turner having 1 good year and opting out might work out fine. If Niko Kavadas figures out AA reasonably quickly he could move up to Worcester and be in line to be the DH at age 25, so the timeline could sync up leaving the 2024 DH spot available for Kavadas if he destroys minor league pitching in 2023 like he did in 2022. he got a nice write up, other day over at MILB www.milb.com/news/kavadas-crushes
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 8, 2023 1:59:19 GMT -5
...a bit surprised...#2 being issued to Turner I don’t get sentimental attachment to ex-player numbers. It’s not like #2 is going to be retired any time soon…
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Post by geostorm on Jan 8, 2023 8:11:49 GMT -5
...a bit surprised...#2 being issued to Turner I don’t get sentimental attachment to ex-player numbers. It’s not like #2 is going to be retired any time soon… Not sentiment, just surprised, not thinking it'd be that quick a turn, though I suppose options limited.
Me either, on retirement, anytime soon, though, up til about April 2022 or so, thought this one might have a shot, 8-10 or so years out!
Three Sox players, my lifetime, I think about most, wearing that number, when I see it, fwiw = X + Remy + Mike Andrews (who turns "80" this summer!!)
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Post by bosoxnation on Jan 8, 2023 10:31:04 GMT -5
...a bit surprised...#2 being issued to Turner I don’t get sentimental attachment to ex-player numbers. It’s not like #2 is going to be retired any time soon… They should of retired it for Remy as soon as X left.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 8, 2023 11:02:34 GMT -5
Turner having 1 good year and opting out might work out fine. If Niko Kavadas figures out AA reasonably quickly he could move up to Worcester and be in line to be the DH at age 25, so the timeline could sync up leaving the 2024 DH spot available for Kavadas if he destroys minor league pitching in 2023 like he did in 2022. I think Teoscar Hernandez would make a lot of sense next year. He can play RF on the road, LF at home, or DH. Hopefully Kavadas will pan out but I doubt they’ll be committing to him to that extent in 2024 regardless of how well he hits this year.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 8, 2023 11:30:01 GMT -5
Turner having 1 good year and opting out might work out fine. If Niko Kavadas figures out AA reasonably quickly he could move up to Worcester and be in line to be the DH at age 25, so the timeline could sync up leaving the 2024 DH spot available for Kavadas if he destroys minor league pitching in 2023 like he did in 2022. I think Teoscar Hernandez would make a lot of sense next year. He can play RF on the road, LF at home, or DH. Hopefully Kavadas will pan out but I doubt they’ll be committing to him to that extent in 2024 regardless of how well he hits this year. You're probably right. That said, though, if Kavadas rakes in AA and AAA the way he did last year - and that is a HUGE if, them I'd have to think he'd be strongly in the mix for a DH spot if Turner leaves. He was voted Sox minor league offensive player of the year by their minor league evaluators/staff (I'm using the wrong terminology), but the point is they love his approach at the plate which they've pointed out. He has massive power and he is also not in his early 20s, so I'd think they'd fast track him more at 25 then if he were 21 or 22, especially with his advanced approach. Say Kavadas is able to be a legit LH power bat at DH, the Sox will have a lot of lefty power in the future between Devers, Casas, Mayer, and Kavadas. Add in Yoshida and maybe Valdez winds up in the mix at 2b, they could slant very LH. They will need to find RH power to balance that. I think Miguel Bleis and perhaps Yorke are the only RH power options on the distant horizon, depending upon what you think of Binelas (nope) and Blaze Jordan (could be, although with another franchise more likely) so they might be on the lookout for a righty bat much sooner feom the outside, to replace yet another lefty, Verdugo, down the road. I think at this point they in the near future, will only have RH power from Story and maybe Rafaela who will directly replace Hernandez in CF by 2024.
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