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Patriots 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by texs31 on Jan 9, 2023 12:09:32 GMT -5
Quicker than hoped (but maybe not quicker than expected)
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Post by texs31 on Jan 9, 2023 12:10:37 GMT -5
Starting off with coaching related news:
- Per his PC, Bill will be back - Mayo receiving interest from Cleveland for their open DC job - Kingsbury fired - some suggest he would be on the short list of OC candidates here.
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Post by jmei on Jan 9, 2023 13:31:45 GMT -5
A few quick and scattered thoughts: -Among free agents, I have no one in the "re-sign at all costs" bucket, J. Jones and Meyers in the "stretch a little to re-sign" bucket, McCourty as a surprise re-sign, and everyone else in the fungible bucket. They actually don't stand to lose too many vital players in free agency. -Would love a few extensions for guys like Duggar, Bentley and Onwenu. Uche is a 2024 FA as well but, given his lack of track record, it'll be hard to come up with reasonable numbers for him. -Guys who will likely get cut: Trent Brown, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith (who somehow would only open up a little cap space if a post-June 1 release).
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Post by texs31 on Jan 9, 2023 15:27:11 GMT -5
A few quick and scattered thoughts: -Among free agents, I have no one in the "re-sign at all costs" bucket, J. Jones and Meyers in the "stretch a little to re-sign" bucket, McCourty as a surprise re-sign, and everyone else in the fungible bucket. They actually don't stand to lose too many vital players in free agency. -Would love a few extensions for guys like Duggar, Bentley and Onwenu. Uche is a 2024 FA as well but, given his lack of track record, it'll be hard to come up with reasonable numbers for him. -Guys who will likely get cut: Trent Brown, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith (who somehow would only open up a little cap space if a post-June 1 release). - I'd like Meyers back but, as some have suggested, his market could go haywire so I have to agree with you there. - I'm gonna put my money (well, maybe someone else's) on Brown getting redone not cut. I think there are multiple possible reasons for his drop in play so the question becomes, did he really go from being an above average guy to what we saw this year? Or was it just a down year? Most importantly, I have a hard time envisioning Bill going into the year with his top 3 OTs all being new. - I did a quick check (so feel free to correct me) and the FA market didn't look that spectacular (specifically at the positions of need - though cuts could expand those lists). Makes me wonder if BB will use the space to start locking in the core. - The TE room has to change. Henry saves you more money (and he could be a candidate for a redo) but still has shown (less so that last year mind you) that he's, at least, an average starter. I actually think Jonnu is an average starter but it just isn't working here (so watch him get cut and be very good somewhere else). - Bourne is the only other guy I'm not sure about. If the staff's feeling on him is permanent, then he goes. But that leaves the Z position very thin (pun intended, given that Tyquan is the only other guy right now).
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Post by texs31 on Jan 9, 2023 15:38:53 GMT -5
Team needs(not necessarily in order)
OT - even if Brown is returning, you still likely need 2 investments here (1 draft, 1 FA) TE - See above C - The idea of Andrews retiring haunts me. Maybe Russey can develop but . . . WRs - This room could change a bunch. Meyers and Bourne are addressed above. Agholor is a FA. I like Parker and his # isn't huge. But if they decide to go out and get a true #1 X, does he provide enough value at the other receiver spots? I don't know the answer at all but thought I'd mention it.
LB - Tavai was better than most thought he'd be but I feel like he's still better as a high quality backup then as a primary guy. CB - Would love to see a bigger guy here to join Marcus and Jack (if he can get back in the good graces) as the core guys. Bryant had a LOT of problems, obviously, but is he still young enough to be "Coached Up". Not for me to say. Not sure when RFA tenders are due but we'll know then what NE thinks, at least. FS - The gaping hole. While Dugger and Phillips leave the room overall in good shape, I don't think either would be expected to take over for DMac.
STs - A LOT of turnover here. Slater and Davis are FAs, as is Cardona. Folk could retire (though his performance suggests he's still got it) and who knows what's going on at P? At least Schooler, Mitchell and Webb offer some hope in coverage. Oh, and yes, they'll likely need a new ST Coach.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 9, 2023 21:57:10 GMT -5
Trent Brown played RT last year and was teamed up with Shaq Mason. He missed ten games, it was much more a run heavy offense and he had big issues to end the year giving up pressures and QB hits, just not sacks on passing plays. Looking at his updated cap numbers I can see a restructure. He likes it here and he's not getting much on open market. Yet it better be at RT next to your best OL player. Bill switching Brown and Wynn is likely the biggest issue that isn't really talked about much. He could have easily traded Wynn for a good amount and kept Mason. Instead he made both players worse and traded a good OG. You could have ran behind Mason and Onwenu all season.
I don't care what else you do, yet you have to fix the OL and again get the great depth we usually have. Which won't be easy.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 9, 2023 22:50:09 GMT -5
What I'd like to see:
- Totally revamp the offensive coaching staff, bring in someone with a little creativity who can maximize Mac - New ST coach - Add someone exciting at wide receiver, trade or top draft pick, I like Jordan Addison - Get OT help
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jan 10, 2023 0:22:03 GMT -5
For me it’s OL, WR, or bust in the first round. Get something to make your average QB look above-average, build his confidence, and help him grow. Hell first 4 rounds should be dedicated to OL and targets
Fire Achord, replace with Judge. Move Matt Patricia into the Ernie Adams role. Hire BOB or Kingsbury, preferably BOB due to existing relationship with Mac. Spend some money in FA, get a McCourty replacement. A couple LB’s. A veteran corner. Maybe spend some money there on lineman instead of using draft picks on them.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jan 10, 2023 1:25:14 GMT -5
I bet they’ll be interested in Lazard for his blocking
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2023 7:06:13 GMT -5
Meyers money could go bonkers because of the lack of receivers on the maker, however, historically, he’s the type of guy that doesn’t get paid. Usually, possession guys with no game breaking ability aren’t high up on the salary scale. No one looks at him as a number 1 receiver, no one.
The free agency market is terrible for this teams needs. I don’t know anything about this years draft at this point.
They need to fix the coaching staff, either from internal growth or from the outside. Preferably from the outside. However, if you put a smart football guy into a spot he’s never been before, big struggles are not a surprise. Neither would big growth after an offseason of evaluation and we did see improvements at the end. More play action, less drive killing penalties etc. maybe with a strong line, added weapons and improved situational play calling they can turn that around.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 10, 2023 11:56:04 GMT -5
A big issue on this team is things not matching up the way you like. I said it before the season and feel the same way now, I don't like the Meyers, Parker, Bourne grouping. They are too similar. I hate the Henry and Junno grouping. Even the Jones grouping at CB, they are all good players yet they are all undersized. Our LBers which played better than expected, yet are all basically the same type of old school thumpers like Ted Johnson. They need to do a better job of mixing in the talent so you can play different ways and match up against different teams.
I want to give a shout out to one of the more underrated free agents Daniel Ekuale at DT was darn good rushing the passer. His numbers don't pop, 9 hurries and 2 sacks. I just feel he made a bigger impact than those numbers suggest and helped out other guys by not allowing teams to double up on other guys, while keeping guys fresh. An underrated depth piece.
I certainly agree usually guys like Meyers don't get big money. Yet the NFL is crazy right now and given the cap increase. He's like Jonathan Jones in my book, as good as gone. While I don't see 20 million like some reports, I wouldn't be surprised by something like 5 years 75 million. Good player, not worth the contract he's about to get. Nevermind playing him in the slot is an issue, he's nothing like a typical Patriots slot WR.
Everyone has nailed the biggest needs. So I'm going to mention a huge need that isn't getting talked about, a blocking TE. A huge issue with Henry and Junno is neither is a good inline blocker. That's a huge issue with Mac Jones at QB. A staple during Tom Brady years was great blocking TEs. Helps during pass protection and helps running the ball. I'm also bringing in a fullback at minimum as a camp guy to give our OC options. Mac Jones is great at play action. A huge key to good play action is a great rushing attack. OL is obvious, yet for years blocking TEs and fullbacks were huge for the Patriots.
I'm highly intrigued by Mayer at TE during the draft. I'm not close to up to date on the draft, so maybe he's horrible value at pick 14. Yet he's like Hunter Henry at receiver, yet breaks more tackles and is a great blocker. We have to at least debate a TE labled baby Gronk as a true freshman no?
I want Harris back. Yeah it's not a huge need and you can make a great case that he's one of the easier guys to replace. It's a deep RB group in free agency and he's coming off a down year. Unless another team goes crazy I'm resigning him. I love the two headed attack of Harris and Stevenson. He's your best short yardage back and his wear and tear is low at this point in his career. Plus I'd love to go into the draft with a position set in stone. Stevenson, Harris, Strong and Harris. I also think it's important to Mac Jones. Yet this is certainly more of a luxury than massive need. I just love the guy. Stevenson is great, yet Harris is a bulldozer with some speed and quickness. Play action was good last game, a big part of that was having that two RB tandem. Add in Strong next year and it's one of the best groups in the NFL.
Finally maybe the most important key first piece, McCourty. Huge difference in a ten million dead money hit versus a similar amount for him resigned. I have to believe he's coming back, he's still playing at a very high level. Things get much harder if he does retire.
We have a bunch of picks, draft a kicker and punter! Even if Bailey wins his case and you can't void his salary, I'm still moving on. I love Folk, one of the more underrated kickers in football. He's going to be 39, sucks at kickoffs and his weak leg was an issue during bad weather. Keeping Folk means your next punter has to be good on kickoffs, which makes things harder. 8.6% touchback rate last year on kickoffs, that's so comically bad with the current rules and a huge part of the ST going to crap.
I love the Football season, I love the team building part this time of year just as much! BTW I still 100% trust Bill and will celebrate every year he comes back. When he leaves it will be like losing Brady.
Last thing, highly unlikely yet I'm going to dream on Brady coming back. Just feels right he ends his career as a Patriot. He's seen this year that it's not easy for teams to keep great talent levels year after year.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jan 10, 2023 13:02:27 GMT -5
I do think there is a possible window for Brady, I just think Miami may be more enticing to him given the WR’s
I’d love for him to end his career here though.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 10, 2023 13:37:04 GMT -5
I hope McCourty retires. He had a great final game and would love to see him go out on a high note. If this team is something like 6-0 to start next year or just looks infinitely better, maybe he can be a mid-season acquisition for one more go.
I'm glad to see that Matty P is very likely to be gone as the play caller. He'll still be with the team, but curious what his role will be. It'll probably be to replace Mayo, which I'm not thrilled about.
Comments about how the Patriots were near the bottom in cash spending has me thinking they're going to splurge again this off-season. Unfortunately, there's no weapons other than JuJu for the Patriots to go out and buy so they'll need to make some trades in that regards. He's a guy whose a really nice piece, but not a true number 1 like this team needs.
They need help in the OL both in terms of talent and coaching.
They need a speedy linebacker.
I would send Joe Judge to work with the special teams and bring back Hoyer to coach Mac Jones (as an actual coach, not someone on the roster).
That's my early thoughts for the off-season.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 10, 2023 14:43:20 GMT -5
I think the limited free agent options might be why they use the cash on:
- trades - locking up their own
On Brady, I'm weird. I don't want him here. We HAVE to figure out the next guy. If it's Mac, great. If not, we need to know that next year.
As blah as the post Brady years have been, I'm not sure I'd trade 1 more good/great year and then go back to this for another SEVERAL years.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:04:50 GMT -5
I don't think this team is a Super Bowl contender with Brady (the cap space you spend on him would trade off with improving the OTs, WRs/TEs, CBs, etc.). If that's the case, I don't know that he's worth pursuing.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:26:52 GMT -5
One other sneaky offseason need is a third down running back. Stevenson played that role but wasn't great (missed blitz pickups, lots of dropped check-downs) and it added to the physical burden on him. Jerick McKinnon would be a good candidate. Old friend Rex Burkhead is an UFA but is 33 next year and looks to have been pretty mediocre recently, but someone in that mold. Harris unfortunately is not that guy.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 10, 2023 15:38:05 GMT -5
One other sneaky offseason need is a third down running back. Stevenson played that role but wasn't great (missed blitz pickups, lots of dropped check-downs) and it added to the physical burden on him. Jerick McKinnon would be a good candidate. Old friend Rex Burkhead is an UFA but is 33 next year and looks to have been pretty mediocre recently, but someone in that mold. Harris unfortunately is not that guy. While they still have Montgomery and probably hope Strong ticks up, bringing in someone to compete is probably not a bad idea.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:39:32 GMT -5
I honestly forgot about Montgomery--good call on him.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 10, 2023 15:43:41 GMT -5
I honestly forgot about Montgomery--good call on him. 21 total snaps are easy to forget
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 10, 2023 15:59:17 GMT -5
I think the limited free agent options might be why they use the cash on: - trades - locking up their own On Brady, I'm weird. I don't want him here. We HAVE to figure out the next guy. If it's Mac, great. If not, we need to know that next year. As blah as the post Brady years have been, I'm not sure I'd trade 1 more good/great year and then go back to this for another SEVERAL years. If Bill doesn't believe Mac is the guy then next year is lost anyways. I would like Brady to end his career here and hopefully make the playoffs. Either way, it'll be a lost season if the organization is done with the Mac experience, or at least think he's no better than Tannehill. Maybe you bring in Brady and draft a QB project to hopefully learn and grow from Brady with Zappe ready to compete with whomever else they bring in?
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Post by texs31 on Jan 10, 2023 16:22:08 GMT -5
Do we know that Bill doesn't believe that? I think he is pissed at how the season went and how Mac responded. But does that mean he is now out on him?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 10, 2023 16:28:26 GMT -5
Do we know that Bill doesn't believe that? I think he is pissed at how the season went and how Mac responded. But does that mean he is now out on him? That I guess is the million dollar question. I don't think he's out, but more as a hypothetical with some recent commentary stringed into it that if the org doesn't believe in him then it's one of the following next year starting for this team: Zappe Mayfield Garapollo Brady Hoyer Mac (despite the team not truly believing he's the guy and is just a place holder for the next). In this scenario, I'd rather Brady with a project in the draft and carry Zappe as well.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 10, 2023 16:43:21 GMT -5
I'd be stunned if that's the scenario but . . .
Meanwhile, sources saying Arizona will be trading Hopkins (and are telling GM candidates as such during the interview process). Take that for what it's worth.
Unlike many trade situations, NE doesn't HAVE to be the highest bidder bc Hopkins has full no trade. If he wants to come here, then he (and BB) can make it happen.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2023 18:05:41 GMT -5
I’d like to propose a rule that no one is allowed to talk about Brady coming back here unless there’s a credible report it’s close to happening. It will just save us a lot of nonsense.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2023 18:06:09 GMT -5
Just realized Trumaine Edwards is a FA after this year… still just 24… wouldn’t be shocked if Bill went after him.:. They really need a LB like him and have the space… haven’t looked at Buffalo but they have a bunch of big contracts already - i have to imagine cap space is going to start getting tight there.
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