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Patriots 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 18, 2023 13:37:41 GMT -5
Just my two sense, yet if you want more versatile then target guys that have that. Dugger, Phillips and Peppers isn't close to versatile for me. They are all basically the same, SS types good against run to cover our crappy LB in space, yet not good against the pass. To be fair Dugger was good in 2021, his other two years not even close. It does show speed isn't everything because Dugger and Peppers are great athletes. On paper both could play FS, yet the eye test and coverage numbers say that would be crazy. Unless you're trying something we haven't seen before.
That's the biggest issue for our D last year, those SS in Coverage. Along with the lack of speed and coverage ability of our LB. It's this massive hole that good offenses can exploit. So much talk about improving the athletic ability of the offense, yet nothing on this front yet. Anytime our pass rush wasn't awesome or we played a running QB, it wasn't good.
John Johnson was released by Browns. He's been good in Coverage on multiple teams playing SS and FS over a bunch of years. Given what I’ve read only worry would be overall football IQ and missed tackles. Love got two years upto 12 million from Seattle. He was crazy versatile as he could play CB, FS and SS.
This is such a great DB class, I've been taking a few bigger ones in mocks with the thought of moving one to FS. Yet I hate the idea of leaving this massive hole, Strange and Thornton! It's just not a great FS or LB class. So watch Bill draft both.
Zolak is saying with inside information that JuJu and Gesecki are just the start. You can certainly use WR depth, along with TE depth and a true inline blocker. Yet overall that's a good group. I like the fit, something that's been off the last few years. I'd look to the draft to lock in long-term pieces for Mac Jones. Your at the point that any further big additions are just going to take opportunities away from other players. Only so many targets for Gesecki, JuJu, Parker, Henry, Bourne and Thornton. Nevermind the RBs they use a ton. You upgrade on Parker or Bourne, it's just less targets for everyone else. I feel better about the WR and TEs right now compared to OL. We have other needs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 18, 2023 14:19:37 GMT -5
You can't compare the NFL draft to MLB Draft and act like lower picks are nothing. Overall that's true in Baseball, that's not true in football. Undrafted guys become high level starters and even all pro guys all the time. Butler, Jackson, Jones and Andrews just to name a few didn't even get drafted!
Also low picks can start as rookies and become great players. Few recent ones in Onwenu, Stevenson and Jack Jones.
To judge nfl draft classes it's all picks and undrafted guys. Guys bust at a high rate, even in first and 2nd rounds. So the more players and picks per draft class the better chance of finding talent. It's funny the two positions that bust the highest early on, CB and WR are what a large percentage of people want them to draft
Notes Elay trade was late second and we got back a high 3rd, moved down 8 spots. Also calling Wynn a role player is extreme. Before this year at LT two year stretch ranking in top 10 for run and pass blocking per PFF. Gets injured too much and too many penalties. Yet late first, that's still likely an above average pick. I still have no idea why Bill moved him to RT, where, yeah he sucked.
So if you want Bill nailing every 1st and 2nd round pick, which no team does. It's going to be him drafting the same positions over and over again. The safe ones like OL and DL, you can't do that. Yet it's also why I prefer a LT at 14 if the right one is there. Very safe picks.
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Post by costpet on Mar 18, 2023 15:02:17 GMT -5
I agree. But a really good ILB wouldn’t hurt.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862 
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Post by cdj on Mar 18, 2023 17:35:44 GMT -5
ST Cody Davis will be back on a 1 yr deal
per new NFL beat reporter Devin McCourty
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2023 9:20:38 GMT -5
Cooks to Dallas for a 5th this year and a 6th next.
Regardless off what you feel about Cooks vs Hopkins, still hard to see Arizona getting a 2nd for him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2023 11:15:30 GMT -5
Bills released WR Isaiah Mckenzie, guy plays like an all-pro versus us and not much versus rest of the league. You want veteran slot depth that's about the complete opposite of JuJu there it is. He just has less return value to us than other teams, yet Bill is going crazy for special teams.
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Post by dfwsox on Mar 19, 2023 15:47:43 GMT -5
Cooks to Dallas for a 5th this year and a 6th next. Regardless off what you feel about Cooks vs Hopkins, still hard to see Arizona getting a 2nd for him. cooks is a good player, but id rather draft a guy just based on the cost of his contract same with hopkins in addition to what arizona is asking Judy would be a good but still the cost |
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Post by Guidas on Mar 19, 2023 16:53:04 GMT -5
You can't compare the NFL draft to MLB Draft and act like lower picks are nothing. Overall that's true in Baseball, that's not true in football. Undrafted guys become high level starters and even all pro guys all the time. Butler, Jackson, Jones and Andrews just to name a few didn't even get drafted!Also low picks can start as rookies and become great players. Few recent ones in Onwenu, Stevenson and Jack Jones. To judge nfl draft classes it's all picks and undrafted guys. Guys bust at a high rate, even in first and 2nd rounds. So the more players and picks per draft class the better chance of finding talent. It's funny the two positions that bust the highest early on, CB and WR are what a large percentage of people want them to draft Notes Elay trade was late second and we got back a high 3rd, moved down 8 spots. Also calling Wynn a role player is extreme. Before this year at LT two year stretch ranking in top 10 for run and pass blocking per PFF. Gets injured too much and too many penalties. Yet late first, that's still likely an above average pick. I still have no idea why Bill moved him to RT, where, yeah he sucked. So if you want Bill nailing every 1st and 2nd round pick, which no team does. It's going to be him drafting the same positions over and over again. The safe ones like OL and DL, you can't do that. Yet it's also why I prefer a LT at 14 if the right one is there. Very safe picks. On the surface I agree in part with you here. I think the NFL offers more of a "punchers chance" to the guys drafted in 6th and 7th round and undrafted FAs than MLB guys taken after the 5th round. This is largely because of special teams and injuries in camp, and because baseball is such a high-skill sport and some guys who are low-rated can make teams through superior effort, coachability and opportunity (i.e. a veteran getting hurt or falling off a cliff with preparation/effort). That said, 6th and 7th round guys in the league are outliers, and very few of them last a year. The guys you named are extreme outliers - a good for them for defying the dramatic odds against them (and, of course, I'm not counting practice squad players here because they don't play on Sunday and are akin to a taxi-squad AAA reserve set-up). If you tell me a GM got a 6th or 7th round draft pick for a former first or second round player and that 1st or 2nd round player didn't suffer massive injuries, then the GM/scouts failed at evaluating and drafting that first rounder. Also, the heavily credited Massey-Peabody study of the NFL draft had provided substantial data going back (I believe) more than 20 years showing 1st round picks are significantly overvalued by teams, even today. Given that many teams continue to overvalue those picks, and Belichick's spotty 1st and 2nd round drafting record in much of the last decade (which contrast strongly with his above average 3rd and 4th round performance when compared to the rest of the league), if he can get a playmaker on either side of the ball for first(s) and/or second(s) that fits a need and they can make the salary fit either straight-up or through creative structuring, the data from his last 8 years say he'd be wise to make the deal. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 20, 2023 12:46:26 GMT -5
Late round picks and undrafted guys becoming legit players isn't an outlier. The foundation of the NFL is day 3 and undrafted guys. Bill finds an undrafted guys every year.
I find that study highly misleading, it's like a report by Eric. You can draw many different conclusions using the same numbers. If you know the draft, you know why those numbers happen. Why you'll never hear me saying trade up to draft a QB, they bust at too high a rate. I certainly got a good laugh at the first example though of Manning, Rivers and big Ben.
Yet I do agree there are general principles to the draft. Why I'd love an OT at 14, big need and it's a save pick, with a valuable 5th year option.
Yet if you believe that study, shouldn't you love the trade down for Duggar? Shouldn't you love the trade down and pick Strange? OG rarely bust.
The biggest problem is that every draft is different and the value of those picks truly change depending on that draft. Example last year had a huge group of WR that were fairly safe in the first, this year doesn't. Top guy is likely 6th in last year's draft, most are going in 2nd round. Now a bunch will go in the first. Smart teams will stay away, stupid teams won't.
Compare two TE Mayer versus Washington, who now are ranked fairly close. Mayer is one of the safest picks in the draft, Washington is the opposite. This is well known, wouldn't surprise me to see Washington go higher, just because of his workout.
Take QB Richardson, type 5 pick type athlete at QB, yet shouldn't be a first round pick. All this hype he's in play top 10. Stupid teams mess up the draft and cause runs on certain positions because they're stupid, why they're drafting top 10.
This year's free agent class hasn't gotten as many big deals as expected, why? 3/4 of the team's were over the cap and needed to clear money. How did the Rams spend big and trade big approach work? Yeah they got a superbowl, then fell apart due to lack of depth and too many overpaid players. Now Bill has gone kinda big in free agency, yet shorter term deals at lesser amount than 2021. It's smart, you don't want another 2022 where you have no money to spend.
Hopkins is older, has large cap hits and wants a new deal because he feels his deal is underpaying him, even at 27.5 million. You basically have to give him a new deal to fit him in our cap room. Paying him is one thing, also trading a high pick is another.
Jerry Juedy is younger, has that Mac connection. Biggest yardage game in College came with Mac at QB. His salary is also less the next 2 years than Hopkins this year. If you care about value, he's the better value play.
I'm looking at this year as a building year, get everything back on track. Confirm Mac Jones is your franchise QB and if he is, go big the last two years of his rookie deal. So I think these types of deals are a year early.
What would you trade our first for?
The other huge difference between Baseball and Football is the length of team control. You can get 6 plus years out of a lot of Baseball guys, Football is 4 years, except 1st round picks with that option year. Dugger, Uche and Onwenu are getting paid next year. You have to factor that in, players like Hopkins on the books with less picks makes paying them and/or replacing them much harder.
I'm a big believer in when you take a QB in the first, you then build a good OL around him and get him young WRs to grow with. Best way of doing that is in the draft. This draft class has the OTs we need and it's an interesting WR group later on to build up long-term depth. I've been fairly impressed with the last two drafts by our new guy, let's see what he does this year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 21, 2023 6:03:35 GMT -5
Harris signing with the Bills is tough
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Mar 21, 2023 8:12:05 GMT -5
In a vacuum I'd rather keep Harris than sign Robinson. Robinson looked COOKED last year (after a few decent weeks at the start of the season).
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Post by texs31 on Mar 21, 2023 10:12:57 GMT -5
NE will not be getting Morrow. Signing with Philly, per Fowler.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 21, 2023 11:32:21 GMT -5
This free agent market went to crap quickly. I wasn't as big on Gardner-Johnson as some, yet one year 8 million isn't much. Very good in Coverage, yet those missed tackles likely meant Bill didn't even look at him. Yet his coverage ability and size at 210 pounds would have been nice.
I can't imagine many players get big deals now, top guys are running to take best one year offers.
I really wanted Harris back, him going to Bills is like a double whammy. Lots of big RB, few have his short area burst and power.
McCourty has been talking up a storm. First says lockeroom was divided on Mac versus Zappe, which is the opposite of reports that Bill might lose team after pulling Mac Jones. Second he makes it sound like Bledsoe can take over for him at FS. Yet maybe that's just him being a nice guy when asked about him. Kinda gave up on him when injuries hit CBs hard and he wasn't playing.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 21, 2023 11:45:18 GMT -5
The Bledsoe comment was only part of his thoughts on the S position.
Devin McCourty
@devinmccourty
Nah I think they have a chance to be better…everyone knew where I was going to be…with this group no one know who will be where….I’m excited to watch them
Quote Tweet
Alonso Cervera Pizaña
@alonsocervera_
·
Mar 17
Replying to @devinmccourty
Real question: you don’t think they need someone in your role? Felt like the mix was so perfect last season!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 21, 2023 14:29:20 GMT -5
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Mar 21, 2023 14:45:10 GMT -5
Thanks for everything BoomTower. Pats legend
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2023 9:15:44 GMT -5
Harris got a 1.75m base salary. Pats must have never even tried. I understand why, in theory, they want Robinson over him. A lot of us for years have wanted backs that weren’t predictable back there. They have that with Stephenson and Robinson is the same way. However, he was a complete shell and they gave him $4m. Hopefully another year our from his injuries he can regain 90% of his form.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2023 9:19:17 GMT -5
This free agent market went to crap quickly. I wasn't as big on Gardner-Johnson as some, yet one year 8 million isn't much. Very good in Coverage, yet those missed tackles likely meant Bill didn't even look at him. Yet his coverage ability and size at 210 pounds would have been nice. I can't imagine many players get big deals now, top guys are running to take best one year offers. I really wanted Harris back, him going to Bills is like a double whammy. Lots of big RB, few have his short area burst and power. McCourty has been talking up a storm. First says lockeroom was divided on Mac versus Zappe, which is the opposite of reports that Bill might lose team after pulling Mac Jones. Second he makes it sound like Bledsoe can take over for him at FS. Yet maybe that's just him being a nice guy when asked about him. Kinda gave up on him when injuries hit CBs hard and he wasn't playing. The whole locker room was divided headlines isn’t really what DMac said. He said guys were going back and forth and that is was more a reflection on what was going on with the offense. It was an indictment on the coaching. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2023 9:49:33 GMT -5
This free agent market went to crap quickly. I wasn't as big on Gardner-Johnson as some, yet one year 8 million isn't much. Very good in Coverage, yet those missed tackles likely meant Bill didn't even look at him. Yet his coverage ability and size at 210 pounds would have been nice. I can't imagine many players get big deals now, top guys are running to take best one year offers. I really wanted Harris back, him going to Bills is like a double whammy. Lots of big RB, few have his short area burst and power. McCourty has been talking up a storm. First says lockeroom was divided on Mac versus Zappe, which is the opposite of reports that Bill might lose team after pulling Mac Jones. Second he makes it sound like Bledsoe can take over for him at FS. Yet maybe that's just him being a nice guy when asked about him. Kinda gave up on him when injuries hit CBs hard and he wasn't playing. The whole locker room was divided headlines isn’t really what DMac said. He said guys were going back and forth and that is was more a reflection on what was going on with the offense. It was an indictment on the coaching. Reports during season made it seem like everyone had Mac Jones back and pulling him might cost Bill the lockeroom. McCourty says that's not true, yeah he said they were divided, some wanted Zappe, some wanted Mac. He then gave his opinion on why he thought that was, doesn't change how the player felt at the time, which didn't match the reports we were getting. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 22, 2023 9:52:51 GMT -5
Mills is re-signing with NE to play Safety (per Jordan Schultz)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2023 9:56:44 GMT -5
www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/james-robinson-48079/According to this Robinson didn't get anything close to the reported 2 years 8 million. It's like I thought, chance to make team, in no way is a roster lock. Yeah I'd rather Harris, yet they should really try Strong. Guy has game breaking speed and is a big play waiting to happen.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2023 10:18:33 GMT -5
I certainly don't mind Mills as a depth piece, I want no part of him being a full-time FS in McCourty role. If they truly believed that, they wouldn't have cut him to begin with. At worst you now have Bledsoe and Mills to compete and it doesn't have this massive hole. He's just not very good in Coverage, teams pick on him. His one good year was when a coach moved him around playing FS, SS, CB and the slot.
The market is cooked and there were better coverage options still available.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2023 11:19:44 GMT -5
The whole locker room was divided headlines isn’t really what DMac said. He said guys were going back and forth and that is was more a reflection on what was going on with the offense. It was an indictment on the coaching. Reports during season made it seem like everyone had Mac Jones back and pulling him might cost Bill the lockeroom. McCourty says that's not true, yeah he said they were divided, some wanted Zappe, some wanted Mac. He then gave his opinion on why he thought that was, doesn't change how the player felt at the time, which didn't match the reports we were getting. We may be talking semantics but I’d categorize it as a confused locker room, not a divided one. Based on DMacs comments it wasn’t a line in the sand situation where there were sides it was guys changing opinions consistently back and forth. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 22, 2023 11:42:52 GMT -5
Per Mike Reiss, looks like the release was never processed and this was just a restructure.
Edit - Karen Guregian seems to confirm (or maybe she was 1st).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2023 13:17:02 GMT -5
McCourty gave us a fact that was never reported, call that whatever you want, split, divided, etc. I hate confused because that makes it sound like grown professional football players are incapable of making a valid decision. No one was saying Mac or Zappe should start because they were confused. He then gives his opinion on why it happened, that's just his opinion and he even says that.
Add in reports that coaches were told to go easy on Mac Jones, I actually hate that. Given the crap he pulled last year, I think he needs the opposite. Let's see how much he loves O'Brian ripping him, because he does that even to Brady.
Let's hope Mac Jones learned a bunch of valuable lessons last year.
He'd do good to embrace Zappe and learn his pocket awareness and how he moves. The move around to buy time to throw, not take off and run everytime. That would take Mac Jones to a new level.
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