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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 15, 2023 17:33:00 GMT -5
Well, here we are. Who's going to play 2B? Hernandez and Arroyo seem the mostly likely options for 2B but without the former in CF you're looking at a Three Stooges OF defensively and Arroyo may be the most logical in-house option at SS (other than Hernandez). Will the FO fill the spot via trade or signing? There aren't a ton of great options out there and the most logical option would be a short-term fix, with Story expected back at least by next spring and dreams of Marcelo at SS in late-2024, early-2025. Josh Harrison is a 35-yo UT type who mostly plays 2B, so he might make sense. If a SS is acquired, Arroyo might simply reprise his pre-Story role at 2B. At this point, about a month to pitchers and catchers reporting, I'm hoping for Jarren Duran to return to 2B exclusively during Spring Training and to win at least the strong-side of a platoon at 2B by the time they go north.
I'm guessing others have other hopes...
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jan 15, 2023 17:40:33 GMT -5
Well, here we are. Who's going to play 2B? Hernandez and Arroyo seem the mostly likely options for 2B but without the former in CF you're looking at a Three Stooges OF defensively and Arroyo may be the most logical in-house option at SS (other than Hernandez). Will the FO fill the spot via trade or signing? There aren't a ton of great options out there and the most logical option would be a short-term fix, with Story expected back at least by next spring and dreams of Marcelo at SS in late-2024, early-2025. Josh Harrison is a 35-yo UT type who mostly plays 2B, so he might make sense. If a SS is acquired, Arroyo might simply reprise his pre-Story role at 2B. At this point, about a month to pitchers and catchers reporting, I'm hoping for Jarren Duran to return to 2B exclusively during Spring Training and to win at least the strong-side of a platoon at 2B by the time they go north.
I'm guessing others have other hopes...
At this point there is no harm in seeing if Duran can be passable @ 2B. He certainly isn't passable as an outfielder, and it's not like he's the difference right now between contention and obscurity. If he's bad, then he is a career pinch runner. His value is already shot anyways. To that end, send Dalbec to A ball to try out pitching. Why not at this point? |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 15, 2023 17:50:02 GMT -5
Valdez gets my vote. Middle infield is likely to be very dynamic in 2023. Valdez my be the only LH batter in that mix and if he hits, which he should, he'll get the most 2B starts.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 15, 2023 17:53:42 GMT -5
Well, here we are. Who's going to play 2B? Hernandez and Arroyo seem the mostly likely options for 2B but without the former in CF you're looking at a Three Stooges OF defensively and Arroyo may be the most logical in-house option at SS (other than Hernandez). Will the FO fill the spot via trade or signing? There aren't a ton of great options out there and the most logical option would be a short-term fix, with Story expected back at least by next spring and dreams of Marcelo at SS in late-2024, early-2025. Josh Harrison is a 35-yo UT type who mostly plays 2B, so he might make sense. If a SS is acquired, Arroyo might simply reprise his pre-Story role at 2B. At this point, about a month to pitchers and catchers reporting, I'm hoping for Jarren Duran to return to 2B exclusively during Spring Training and to win at least the strong-side of a platoon at 2B by the time they go north.
I'm guessing others have other hopes...
At this point there is no harm in seeing if Duran can be passable @ 2B. He certainly isn't passable as an outfielder, and it's not like he's the difference right now between contention and obscurity. If he's bad, then he is a career pinch runner. His value is already shot anyways. To that end, send Dalbec to A ball to try out pitching. Why not at this point? Agreed (on both points) and if Duran can play a passable 2B and gains more confidence at the plate (from the left side, btw), his trade value increases exponentially. It may be the last chance to salvage anything from him. |
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Post by kjkramer on Jan 15, 2023 17:53:44 GMT -5
I would go with Arroyo as often as the team thinks he can do the job and stay healthy... and try out young guns on the other days..... Valdez, Duran, etc
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 15, 2023 17:53:59 GMT -5
Story wins it with 75 games or something like that
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 15, 2023 17:56:13 GMT -5
N.B. My apologies to Christian Arroyo and the entire Arroyo family for misspelling his name in the poll. Polls can't be edited.
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Jan 15, 2023 17:59:44 GMT -5
True Hope = Trevor Story
What I think = Christian Arroyo
What I want = Enmanuel Valdez -- Small man, big stick.. Just figure it out in the field enough and swing, batter, swing.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 15, 2023 18:07:17 GMT -5
Story wins it with 75 games or something like that I'd put the O/U for Story's games played at around 60. I think they'll be inclined to ease him back, especially if someone else grabs the position by the, um, horns... |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 15, 2023 18:17:58 GMT -5
I'll guess Arroyo, against all odds
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Post by soxinsf on Jan 15, 2023 19:08:38 GMT -5
True Hope = Trevor Story What I think = Christian Arroyo What I want = Enmanuel Valdez -- Small man, big stick.. Just figure it out in the field enough and swing, batter, swing. Man, you are so close. But, hoping for Story is a bit like waiting for Godot. It’s going to be a long wait. Unless, the Sox surprise us, you are on the beam re Arroyo. Every other option is a pipe dream. |
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jan 15, 2023 21:32:00 GMT -5
Brendan Rodgers
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Post by runner on Jan 15, 2023 21:47:18 GMT -5
Story wins it with 75 games or something like that After the all-star break is around 75 games. Story at best will probably play 60 of those games. He probably goes to short stop after the injury. Arroyo is probably going to get 110 games I'm guessing health wise. Valdez gets the others. If Arroyo gets hurt for a extended period (again), the Sox will find a external option that's not listed. I don't think Duran will see time at second base, but I do like the idea of expanding his versatility to give him a chance for more at bats. |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2023 3:34:44 GMT -5
Arroyo makes no sense to me. If he's your starter, you then have to obtain a new backup SS (in addition to a new starting SS) ... why not just obtain a guy's who's a better hitter than Arroyo and who plays 2B (and not necessarily SS), and have him start? Or, put Kiké at 2B, and then you have chance of getting a RH hitter who can play CF and hit 6th.
Arroyo had 181 PA in 2021 and had a 3.3 WAR per 600 PA. He was also crazy good when it mattered, adding 1.4 full runs for a raw total of 2.4 wins and a just plain stupid 8.0 per 600. No wonder why we all loved him.
Last year he had 300 PA and his WAR / 600 dropped to 0.3. His clutch magic disappeared to the tune of -.02 Sit-Wins, for an overall WAR of 0.0.
I think two things are going on here. First, as a bench player they almost certainly got him into the lineup against pitchers he was projected to hit well against. (I did that for the Sox in '05 with some real success using nothing but standard batting and pitching lines plus pitcher's GB%; imagine what they can do now.) And second, there's much higher expectations when you're a starers and hence more pressure.
Brendan Rodgers is a really interesting idea. His 2021 and 2022 were insanely different, to the point where he seems very likely to have changed something in a major way.
In 2021 he had a 66 wRC+ at Coors and a 131 on the road. So maybe he made a change to hit better at home?
In fact he had a 117 wRC+ at home last year ... and a 65 on the road. Oops ... that's a net downgrade.
(We now turn to bRef and OPS+, and they had a much milder Coors factor. So just look at the relative splits.)
In 2021 his Score Splits (Late and Close / Ordinary / Blowout) were 101, 124, 105. These are relative to MLB as a whole, so these are fairly ordinary.
Last year he was 65 / 103 / 178. As a result is Situational Hitting went from .9 wins / 600 PA to -1.4.
So two questions I won't address: what's the true Coors park factor, and what the hell happened last year / can we get the 2021 version?
He could play 2B for a year, SS for a year, and then be traded with a year of control left. If he blossoms with us you might get him for essentially nothing in the long run. It sure seems that he needs to escape Coors, as so far he's hasn't been able to develop a swing and/or approach that works both there and on the road. That limits his value to the Rockies.
I'd like to think that either Laureano ($3.55M arb agreement) or Rodgers ($2.7M) projects to be a decent 6 hitter. Even if they both do, I'd still grab just one and sign Andrus to play SS for a year, because they have money to spend and I'd rather they didn't make two trades that thinned the farm system. All things being equal, I'd go with Rogers, because that evades a lot of roster problems ... you can then have Greg Allen as the 26th guy and watch him steal bases at will and fill in in CF when we need defense there, while retaining Kiké as extra infield depth.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 16, 2023 7:35:59 GMT -5
Arroyo makes no sense to me. If he's your starter, you then have to obtain a new backup SS (in addition to a new starting SS) ... why not just obtain a guy's who's a better hitter than Arroyo and who plays 2B (and not necessarily SS), and have him start? Or, put Kiké at 2B, and then you have chance of getting a RH hitter who can play CF and hit 6th.
Arroyo had 181 PA in 2021 and had a 3.3 WAR per 600 PA. He was also crazy good when it mattered, adding 1.4 full runs for a raw total of 2.4 wins and a just plain stupid 8.0 per 600. No wonder why we all loved him.
Last year he had 300 PA and his WAR / 600 dropped to 0.3. His clutch magic disappeared to the tune of -.02 Sit-Wins, for an overall WAR of 0.0.
I think two things are going on here. First, as a bench player they almost certainly got him into the lineup against pitchers he was projected to hit well against. (I did that for the Sox in '05 with some real success using nothing but standard batting and pitching lines plus pitcher's GB%; imagine what they can do now.) And second, there's much higher expectations when you're a starers and hence more pressure.
Brendan Rodgers is a really interesting idea. His 2021 and 2022 were insanely different, to the point where he seems very likely to have changed something in a major way.
In 2021 he had a 66 wRC+ at Coors and a 131 on the road. So maybe he made a change to hit better at home?
In fact he had a 117 wRC+ at home last year ... and a 65 on the road. Oops ... that's a net downgrade.
(We now turn to bRef and OPS+, and they had a much milder Coors factor. So just look at the relative splits.)
In 2021 his Score Splits (Late and Close / Ordinary / Blowout) were 101, 124, 105. These are relative to MLB as a whole, so these are fairly ordinary.
Last year he was 65 / 103 / 178. As a result is Situational Hitting went from .9 wins / 600 PA to -1.4.
So two questions I won't address: what's the true Coors park factor, and what the hell happened last year / can we get the 2021 version?
He could play 2B for a year, SS for a year, and then be traded with a year of control left. If he blossoms with us you might get him for essentially nothing in the long run. It sure seems that he needs to escape Coors, as so far he's hasn't been able to develop a swing and/or approach that works both there and on the road. That limits his value to the Rockies.
I'd like to think that either Laureano ($3.55M arb agreement) or Rodgers ($2.7M) projects to be a decent 6 hitter. Even if they both do, I'd still grab just one and sign Andrus to play SS for a year, because they have money to spend and I'd rather they didn't make two trades that thinned the farm system. All things being equal, I'd go with Rogers, because that evades a lot of roster problems ... you can then have Greg Allen as the 26th guy and watch him steal bases at will and fill in in CF when we need defense there, while retaining Kiké as extra infield depth.
So, two players whose ericWAR clutch hitting fluctuates wildly from one season to another, and you can't think of an explanation that would cover both of them? In a world where most people do not believe clutch hitting is dependably predictable because it fluctuates wildly from one season to another, especially in small sample sizes? |
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Post by incandenza on Jan 16, 2023 8:49:21 GMT -5
Arroyo makes no sense to me. If he's your starter, you then have to obtain a new backup SS (in addition to a new starting SS) ... why not just obtain a guy's who's a better hitter than Arroyo and who plays 2B (and not necessarily SS), and have him start? Or, put Kiké at 2B, and then you have chance of getting a RH hitter who can play CF and hit 6th.
Arroyo had 181 PA in 2021 and had a 3.3 WAR per 600 PA. He was also crazy good when it mattered, adding 1.4 full runs for a raw total of 2.4 wins and a just plain stupid 8.0 per 600. No wonder why we all loved him.
Last year he had 300 PA and his WAR / 600 dropped to 0.3. His clutch magic disappeared to the tune of -.02 Sit-Wins, for an overall WAR of 0.0.
I think two things are going on here. First, as a bench player they almost certainly got him into the lineup against pitchers he was projected to hit well against. (I did that for the Sox in '05 with some real success using nothing but standard batting and pitching lines plus pitcher's GB%; imagine what they can do now.) And second, there's much higher expectations when you're a starers and hence more pressure.
I think part of what happened is that they made the abominable decision to play him in RF. In only 108 innings in RF he racked up -3 OAA and -5 DRS. He also had -2 OAA in 72 innings at 3B.
A common sense check says that a guy with a 102 wRC+ in 300 PAs, with average to above average defense at 2B, should have been worth a lot more than 0.3 WAR. Being played out of position just killed his WAR.
I would buy the bench bonus/starter penalty thing, but his wRC+ only dropped from 106 to 102 from 2021 to 2022, and in fact his xwOBA jumped from .301 to .330. He was basically an everyday player from July 30th on last season and from that point on had a 121 wRC+.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 16, 2023 23:06:24 GMT -5
Rodgers really doesn't do it for me, in terms of track record. And I'm going to just come out and say that given what I know about Rockies ownership, there's no way they are going to trade the guy they picked at 1-3 - the kid who was supposed to become the face of their franchise for a decade or more - after only his second full big league season and when he still only costs $2.7m. I'm not going to eat my laptop if they move him but if I were typing this late last night after a couple scotches, I may have vowed to do so and still wouldn't be that worried.
Laureano isn't much better in my eyes. You've already got a guy with an injury history in Arroyo in the mix and Laureano has missed 142 games over the past two years. He also didn't hit much in 2022 and his <1 WAR suggests that his defense in CF wasn't that great either. I don't like having to buy a guy like that with prospects.
And whether it's Laureano or any other quick fix, opposing GMs are going to make Chaim pay a premium, knowing the bind he's in (as I'm confident they did when it came to trying to trade JDM or Nate after he had already traded Vazquez and everyone could see that he wasn't yet under the CBT). So I'm not as keen to look for solutions on the trade market, particularly from teams who have no real urgency to trade the guys we need.
Ultimately, with the scraps that are left on the off-season platter and a 78-win team that hasn't really gotten demonstrably better and probably needs to rely on a lot of regression luck to even sniff a WC fight (let alone break even in the division), I'd just as soon see what we've got in-house and maybe adjust strategy mid-season if they surprise us all.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2023 23:23:26 GMT -5
Rodgers really doesn't do it for me, in terms of track record. And I'm going to just come out and say that given what I know about Rockies ownership, there's no way they are going to trade the guy they picked at 1-3 - the kid who was supposed to become the face of their franchise for a decade or more - after only his second full big league season and when he still only costs $2.7m. I'm not going to eat my laptop if they move him but if I were typing this late last night after a couple scotches, I may have vowed to do so and still wouldn't be that worried. Laureano isn't much better in my eyes. You've already got a guy with an injury history in Arroyo in the mix and Laureano has missed 142 games over the past two years. He also didn't hit much in 2022 and his <1 WAR suggests that his defense in CF wasn't that great either. I don't like having to buy a guy like that with prospects. And whether it's Laureano or any other quick fix, opposing GMs are going to make Chaim pay a premium, knowing the bind he's in (as I'm confident they did when it came to trying to trade JDM or Nate after he had already traded Vazquez and everyone could see that he wasn't yet under the CBT). So I'm not as keen to look for solutions on the trade market, particularly from teams who have no real urgency to trade the guys we need. Ultimately, with the scraps that are left on the off-season platter and a 78-win team that hasn't really gotten demonstrably better and probably needs to rely on a lot of regression luck to even sniff a WC fight (let alone break even in the division), I'd just as soon see what we've got in-house and maybe adjust strategy mid-season if they surprise us all. I could be wrong but didnt Laureano miss time not because of injury but because of a PEDs suspension? And unsurprisingly his offensive numbers haven't been as good since. They're better off with Duvall and Andrus/Iglesias. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 16, 2023 23:38:29 GMT -5
Rodgers really doesn't do it for me, in terms of track record. And I'm going to just come out and say that given what I know about Rockies ownership, there's no way they are going to trade the guy they picked at 1-3 - the kid who was supposed to become the face of their franchise for a decade or more - after only his second full big league season and when he still only costs $2.7m. I'm not going to eat my laptop if they move him but if I were typing this late last night after a couple scotches, I may have vowed to do so and still wouldn't be that worried. Laureano isn't much better in my eyes. You've already got a guy with an injury history in Arroyo in the mix and Laureano has missed 142 games over the past two years. He also didn't hit much in 2022 and his <1 WAR suggests that his defense in CF wasn't that great either. I don't like having to buy a guy like that with prospects. And whether it's Laureano or any other quick fix, opposing GMs are going to make Chaim pay a premium, knowing the bind he's in (as I'm confident they did when it came to trying to trade JDM or Nate after he had already traded Vazquez and everyone could see that he wasn't yet under the CBT). So I'm not as keen to look for solutions on the trade market, particularly from teams who have no real urgency to trade the guys we need. Ultimately, with the scraps that are left on the off-season platter and a 78-win team that hasn't really gotten demonstrably better and probably needs to rely on a lot of regression luck to even sniff a WC fight (let alone break even in the division), I'd just as soon see what we've got in-house and maybe adjust strategy mid-season if they surprise us all. I could be wrong but didnt Laureano miss time not because of injury but because of a PEDs suspension? And unsurprisingly his offensive numbers haven't been as good since. They're better off with Duvall and Andrus/Iglesias. I think you're right about Laureano - not sure that changes my mind though.
Can't agree on deadwood like Duvall or Andrus/Iglesias. Why reach for mediocre 30-somethings as the finishing touches on a mediocre team? I don't see the upside, compared with the potential upside of seeing Arroyo and Duran blossom and boost their values.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2023 23:42:04 GMT -5
I had a crazy thought based on that report that the virtually always wrong Bob Nightengale put out regarding the Sox "interest" in Profar and Andrus.
Andrus is obvious and the simplest solution, but I couldn't figure out the potential Profar interest.
I had a crazy thought earlier this offseason about Profar for 2b although he probably would be a lousy 2b at this point. Is it possible they're considering him because they like his bat and can envision him between Yoshida and Devers in the lineup? With the idea of playing him at 2b against righties and LF against lefties with Arroyo at 2b, Yoshida DHing and Turner playing 1b?
You would also figure that they sign Andrus for SS or sign Duvall for CF with Kiké at SS?
So against righties:
Yoshida
Profar
Devers
Turner
Verdugo
Duvall/Andrus
Casas
Hernandez
McGuire
Against lefties:
Yoshida
Profar
Devers
Turner
Hernandez
Verdugo
Duvall/Andrus
Arroyo
Wong
It seems to me, at this point, Profar and Duvall offer the highest ceiling for offensive improvement although the defensive issues probably dont outweigh Andrus, at least the version that hit in Chicago last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2023 23:48:08 GMT -5
I could be wrong but didnt Laureano miss time not because of injury but because of a PEDs suspension? And unsurprisingly his offensive numbers haven't been as good since. They're better off with Duvall and Andrus/Iglesias. I think you're right about Laureano - not sure that changes my mind though. Can't agree on deadwood like Duvall or Andrus/Iglesias. Why reach for mediocre 30-somethings as the finishing touches on a mediocre team? I don't see the upside, compared with the potential upside of seeing Arroyo and Duran blossom and boost their values.
I certainly don't want Laureano. I'm past the point of thinking Duran can be a major league CF. I do think Arroyo can be a regular 2b, but I have barely any more faith that he can stay healthy than I have in Duran being a major league CF. |
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