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Red Sox Acquire Adalberto Mondesi and PTBNL for Josh Taylor
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2023 2:23:49 GMT -5
I'm a rules change guy. Love it. I hope he doesn't take too long to rehab.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 25, 2023 8:28:58 GMT -5
Here's a discussion of Ronald Acuna Jr's non-superstar 2022 season after coming back from a "complete" ACL tear. "As has been shown countless times across many sports, it can take 18-24 months to get back to normal from a complete ACL tear, like Acuña had." Not sure if "complete ACL tear" is what Mondesi had, though Acuna's injury seemed worse on video. The story suggests that playing very single day is particularly rough when coming back from ACL surgery, so being a backup might be less challenging www.batterypower.com/2022/12/27/23524368/2022-atlanta-braves-season-review-ronald-acuna-jr
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 25, 2023 8:47:22 GMT -5
Here's a discussion of Ronald Acuna Jr's non-superstar 2022 season after coming back from a "complete" ACL tear. "As has been shown countless times across many sports, it can take 18-24 months to get back to normal from a complete ACL tear, like Acuña had." Not sure if "complete ACL tear" is what Mondesi had, though Acuna's injury seemed worse on video. The story suggests that playing very single day is particularly rough when coming back from ACL surgery, so being a backup might be less challenging www.batterypower.com/2022/12/27/23524368/2022-atlanta-braves-season-review-ronald-acuna-jrEspecially for SS, it’s almost all lateral movements. So the trade it’s self is meh, as we didn’t give up much or get much, but the prospect of him being our starting SS is disappointing Especially when his game is all about speed and is coming off a major injury to the leg
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 25, 2023 8:52:10 GMT -5
Here's a discussion of Ronald Acuna Jr's non-superstar 2022 season after coming back from a "complete" ACL tear. "As has been shown countless times across many sports, it can take 18-24 months to get back to normal from a complete ACL tear, like Acuña had." Not sure if "complete ACL tear" is what Mondesi had, though Acuna's injury seemed worse on video. The story suggests that playing very single day is particularly rough when coming back from ACL surgery, so being a backup might be less challenging www.batterypower.com/2022/12/27/23524368/2022-atlanta-braves-season-review-ronald-acuna-jrI tore my ACL a few years back playing softball, the way I understood it from my doctor was that there's not really much they can do surgically other than complete replacing the ACL if it is a certain degree of torn. I'm no pro athlete, very far from it so perhaps I'm wrong on that. Once again I'm no pro and my rehab was to get me back to just being able to get around daily, play some sports on a rec league level and what not. The problem for me was side-to-side movements, backwards and forwards movements were never an issue for me on my rehab. That is my main concern with the deal and having expectations for Mondesi, being a MI with his value being heavily tied to his defensive ability if his side-to-side movement doesn't bounce back as good or close to as good as it was before he's not going to bring much value.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2023 8:59:00 GMT -5
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 25, 2023 9:17:48 GMT -5
Acuna's speed dropped off a little, his fielding dropped off a lot, and his bat was pretty much the same.
Normally what you see in football is guys have lingering issues with their hamstrings, probably from overcompensating from the ACL injury.
But there are guys like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin just this past season that rely on quick lateral movements every play who were fine less than 12 months later.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 25, 2023 12:15:37 GMT -5
But what if one of the PTBNLs turns into the MLB equivalent of Brock Purdy! I guess that would be Purdy lucky. Still, the chances are Purdy slim.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 25, 2023 13:34:43 GMT -5
I still like this trade, but some of this injury talk has me feeling a little warier about how much we can expect from Mondesi. If I was Bloom I think I'd be looking at packaging Arroyo with a prospect or two to try to upgrade 2B so at least one of these positions has a litte more reliable stability.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 25, 2023 13:47:01 GMT -5
I still like this trade, but some of this injury talk has me feeling a little warier about how much we can expect from Mondesi. If I was Bloom I think I'd be looking at packaging Arroyo with a prospect or two to try to upgrade 2B so at least one of these positions has a litte more reliable stability. I dunno, I’d greatly prefer to hold onto Arroyo as he’s cheap, controllable and can play virtually every INF position. I think if they really wanted to add another 2B/INF, they’d probably just sign Iglesias. There isn’t much on the 2B trade market to begin with anyways.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2023 14:24:06 GMT -5
I hadn't put this together but the comments yesterday that seemed to indicate Kiké plays SS if they're both on the field might be an acknowledgment that Mondesi is expected to have less range this year due to the knee. I was confused by that one until now.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 25, 2023 14:31:39 GMT -5
Acuna's speed dropped off a little, his fielding dropped off a lot, and his bat was pretty much the same. Normally what you see in football is guys have lingering issues with their hamstrings, probably from overcompensating from the ACL injury. But there are guys like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin just this past season that rely on quick lateral movements every play who were fine less than 12 months later. Acuna's hitting was weaker: he hit .266 .351 .413 .764 after being in the .880-990 range ages 20-22. I've read that it can hurt your hitting if you're recovering from ACL surgery on your back knee, where you need a solid base.
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Post by seamus on Jan 25, 2023 14:59:03 GMT -5
Acuna's speed dropped off a little, his fielding dropped off a lot, and his bat was pretty much the same. Normally what you see in football is guys have lingering issues with their hamstrings, probably from overcompensating from the ACL injury. But there are guys like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin just this past season that rely on quick lateral movements every play who were fine less than 12 months later. Acuna's hitting was weaker: he hit .266 .351 .413 .764 after being in the .880-990 range ages 20-22. I've read that it can hurt your hitting if you're recovering from ACL surgery on your back knee, where you need a solid base. His expected stats (e.g., XWOBA) were still in something like the top 5-10% range and he was still hitting the ball very hard. (Part of the drop was also just the league's offensive environment.) The big difference offensively for him was that he was swinging more often, making more contact, and hitting more grounders. Those are likely all connected in that he probably trying to cut down his strikeouts, but in so doing started putting more weak groundballs in play. That honestly sounds more like an approach thing than something connected to an injury, but it's certainly possible that the injury factored in somehow (even if just psychologically, pressing to "get back"). Regarding the trade, I am always a fan of trading pitchers with question marks for position players who can address a need. While Mondesi's injury history is a concern, Taylor is at least as much of a gamble. If Mondesi pans out, getting a guy capable of putting up something like 3 WAR/500 PA in exchange for almost any relief pitcher is a good deal. Also, if Hernandez is more comfortable playing shortstop than second, Story demonstrated last year that a plus-shortstop playing second base can be really helpful. Also, for all that's being made of the shift ban, teams will still be able to shade guys quite a bit, so the good positioning that the Sox used to make Bogaerts look better will still be somewhat helpful.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 25, 2023 14:59:59 GMT -5
I still like this trade, but some of this injury talk has me feeling a little warier about how much we can expect from Mondesi. If I was Bloom I think I'd be looking at packaging Arroyo with a prospect or two to try to upgrade 2B so at least one of these positions has a litte more reliable stability. I think we may be back to Valdez in the mix to start the season with Ryfsnyder as an emergency middle infielder. Mondesi is the solution to the MI depth once he is ready. An upgrade over Arroyo via trade as part of an ongoing effort to improve the team would be welcome, but with available salary getting tight, it may be hard to really obtain a significant upgrade right now.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 25, 2023 17:17:25 GMT -5
Acuna's hitting was weaker: he hit .266 .351 .413 .764 after being in the .880-990 range ages 20-22. I've read that it can hurt your hitting if you're recovering from ACL surgery on your back knee, where you need a solid base. His expected stats (e.g., XWOBA) were still in something like the top 5-10% range and he was still hitting the ball very hard. (Part of the drop was also just the league's offensive environment.) The big difference offensively for him was that he was swinging more often, making more contact, and hitting more grounders. Those are likely all connected in that he probably trying to cut down his strikeouts, but in so doing started putting more weak groundballs in play. That honestly sounds more like an approach thing than something connected to an injury, but it's certainly possible that the injury factored in somehow (even if just psychologically, pressing to "get back"). [...] I'm confused by the statement in bold. Wasn't his XWOBA .366 in 2022 after being .420 and .429 the previous two years? I could be misunderstanding something.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 25, 2023 18:09:56 GMT -5
His expected stats (e.g., XWOBA) were still in something like the top 5-10% range and he was still hitting the ball very hard. (Part of the drop was also just the league's offensive environment.) The big difference offensively for him was that he was swinging more often, making more contact, and hitting more grounders. Those are likely all connected in that he probably trying to cut down his strikeouts, but in so doing started putting more weak groundballs in play. That honestly sounds more like an approach thing than something connected to an injury, but it's certainly possible that the injury factored in somehow (even if just psychologically, pressing to "get back"). [...] I'm confused by the statement in bold. Wasn't his XWOBA .366 in 2022 after being .420 and .429 the previous two years? I could be misunderstanding something. As mentioned, the offensive environment was much worse in 2022 than in 2021. He was in the 97th to 99th percentile in 2019 to 2021 and dropped all the way to the 95th percentile in 2022. That's what I meant by basically the same.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 26, 2023 16:18:50 GMT -5
Having looked at the numbers in more detail ... as good as Greg Allen has been as a base-stealer, Mondesi is better. I missed spotting the B-Ref column that gives SB opportunities and was guessing at the numbers, incorrectly.
Mondesi has had 368 opportunities to steal second or third and has attempted 159, which is 43%. When you consider how rarely guys on second steal third, that's crazy.
He's attempted 114 steals of second: 95 SB, 10 caught outright, 9 picked off and caught. That's an 83% success rate.
He's attempted 45 steals of third and has been caught 7 times. That's an 84% success rate. That's in fact probably too many attempts.
Mondesi has only been picked off outright once. That might indicate that he won't benefit much from the new rules, since he already has a great sense of how big a lead he can take. It's going to be interesting to see how then rule plays out.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 26, 2023 18:33:49 GMT -5
Apologies if this has been cited above, but here is 2:23 of Mondesi being very fast:
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 26, 2023 22:19:01 GMT -5
Looks like he can get a bunt down, as well. Good to have at least one good bunter on the club, particularly one who's not an everyday starter.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 27, 2023 0:35:55 GMT -5
Apologies if this has been cited above, but here is 2:23 of Mondesi being very fast: Wow — this dude can absolutely fly.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 27, 2023 8:36:51 GMT -5
Looks like he can get a bunt down, as well. Good to have at least one good bunter on the club, particularly one who's not an everyday starter. As you saw, that was a *sacrifice* bunt where he properly deadened the ball and then just outran the throw to first base.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 27, 2023 11:33:15 GMT -5
Here's a discussion of Ronald Acuna Jr's non-superstar 2022 season after coming back from a "complete" ACL tear. "As has been shown countless times across many sports, it can take 18-24 months to get back to normal from a complete ACL tear, like Acuña had." Not sure if "complete ACL tear" is what Mondesi had, though Acuna's injury seemed worse on video. The story suggests that playing very single day is particularly rough when coming back from ACL surgery, so being a backup might be less challenging www.batterypower.com/2022/12/27/23524368/2022-atlanta-braves-season-review-ronald-acuna-jrEspecially for SS, it’s almost all lateral movements. So the trade it’s self is meh, as we didn’t give up much or get much, but the prospect of him being our starting SS is disappointing Especially when his game is all about speed and is coming off a major injury to the leg If Mondesi is healthy, then we did get a lot for Taylor. He plays excellent defense at a position of need and he's been a ~4 fWAR guy when healthy since he was 22. He has more upside than any of the Andrus/Iglesias/Wendle types that have been discussed and is making less than all of them.
I agree there's a lot riding on his knee, but I'm sure the Sox doctors checked him out as a part of the trade and determined that the trade should go forward. If they checked him out thought his knee would be a liability and he wouldn't be able to make normal lateral movements until the All-Star Break, or something, I'd expect the trade would not have happened.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 27, 2023 12:01:02 GMT -5
Especially for SS, it’s almost all lateral movements. So the trade it’s self is meh, as we didn’t give up much or get much, but the prospect of him being our starting SS is disappointing Especially when his game is all about speed and is coming off a major injury to the leg If Mondesi is healthy, then we did get a lot for Taylor. He plays excellent defense at a position of need and he's been a ~4 fWAR guy when healthy since he was 22. He has more upside than any of the Andrus/Iglesias/Wendle types that have been discussed and is making less than all of them.
I agree there's a lot riding on his knee, but I'm sure the Sox doctors checked him out as a part of the trade and determined that the trade should go forward. If they checked him out thought his knee would be a liability and he wouldn't be able to make normal lateral movements until the All-Star Break, or something, I'd expect the trade would not have happened.
I mostly agree, but the “they must know” argument always chafes me. We could easily turn it around and say if the Royals are giving him up for nothing more than an ok bullpen guy, they must know he’s never going to reach his potential. I’m not saying that is true either, but folks have a tendency to assume some secret formula — the Sox see something — as if they are smarter than everyone else. I call it “Franchy Goggles.” Or… “Downs Glasses”? Maybe “McGuire Vision”? (All prospects multiple teams have traded but somehow the Sox knew best).
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 27, 2023 12:09:46 GMT -5
If Mondesi is healthy, then we did get a lot for Taylor. He plays excellent defense at a position of need and he's been a ~4 fWAR guy when healthy since he was 22. He has more upside than any of the Andrus/Iglesias/Wendle types that have been discussed and is making less than all of them.
I agree there's a lot riding on his knee, but I'm sure the Sox doctors checked him out as a part of the trade and determined that the trade should go forward. If they checked him out thought his knee would be a liability and he wouldn't be able to make normal lateral movements until the All-Star Break, or something, I'd expect the trade would not have happened.
I mostly agree, but the “they must know” argument always chafes me. We could easily turn it around and say if the Royals are giving him up for nothing more than an ok bullpen guy, they must know he’s never going to reach his potential. I’m not saying that is true either, but folks have a tendency to assume some secret formula — the Sox see something — as if they are smarter than everyone else. I call it “Franchy Goggles.” Or… “Downs Glasses”? Maybe “McGuire Vision”? (All prospects multiple teams have traded but somehow the Sox knew best). Franchy was always a lottery ticket with flashy tools, McGuire has been productive in his big league career thus far and was acquired for a guy with little value, and Downs was broadly regarded as a good prospect that subsequently underwhelmed, so I don't know how any of them fall in the "they must know something we don't" bucket. Regardless, I don't think this concept applies to a guy who played at a 4 fWAR pace for four consecutive seasons before injuring his ACL. He's only 27, so if the knee weren't a concern we'd of course expect him to keep producing at a high level. And, since the trade has gone through, the doctors don't think his knee is a trainwreck. That doesn't necessarily mean he will be right back to the guy he was before, but there's plenty of reason to expect him to be a solid contributor this year. Even a diminished Mondesi in the 2-3 fWAR ballpark would be a great get for this team.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 27, 2023 12:10:08 GMT -5
If Mondesi is healthy, then we did get a lot for Taylor. He plays excellent defense at a position of need and he's been a ~4 fWAR guy when healthy since he was 22. He has more upside than any of the Andrus/Iglesias/Wendle types that have been discussed and is making less than all of them.
I agree there's a lot riding on his knee, but I'm sure the Sox doctors checked him out as a part of the trade and determined that the trade should go forward. If they checked him out thought his knee would be a liability and he wouldn't be able to make normal lateral movements until the All-Star Break, or something, I'd expect the trade would not have happened.
I mostly agree, but the “they must know” argument always chafes me. We could easily turn it around and say if the Royals are giving him up for nothing more than an ok bullpen guy, they must know he’s never going to reach his potential. I’m not saying that is true either, but folks have a tendency to assume some secret formula — the Sox see something — as if they are smarter than everyone else. I call it “Franchy Goggles.” Or… “Downs Glasses”? Maybe “McGuire Vision”? (All prospects multiple teams have traded but somehow the Sox knew best). First of all, there is an EXTREME irony in you implying other people here are looking at things through a particular lens when you might be the most flagrant culprit on this board when it comes to keeping a very narrow perspective. And I do enjoy some irony. I mean I can get how that consistent argument could be annoying but given that you pretty consistently go the exact opposite direction I'm not sure you have much room to complain (without looking like a hypocrite, anyway). Second, that's not even what the poster you're replying to is saying. That was not a baseball value/Chaim Bloom is a genius (which, as always, is a straw man) statement, that was a medical thing, and he's almost definitely right. There's very little chance this deal didn't hinge on some sort of physical, so in order for it to have gone through there must have been some kind of medical examination that determined the knee wasn't going to be a long-term issue.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 27, 2023 12:22:59 GMT -5
I mostly agree, but the “they must know” argument always chafes me. We could easily turn it around and say if the Royals are giving him up for nothing more than an ok bullpen guy, they must know he’s never going to reach his potential. I’m not saying that is true either, but folks have a tendency to assume some secret formula — the Sox see something — as if they are smarter than everyone else. I call it “Franchy Goggles.” Or… “Downs Glasses”? Maybe “McGuire Vision”? (All prospects multiple teams have traded but somehow the Sox knew best). First of all, there is an EXTREME irony in you implying other people here are looking at things through a particular lens when you might be the most flagrant culprit on this board when it comes to keeping a very narrow perspective. And I do enjoy some irony. I mean I can get how that consistent argument could be annoying but given that you pretty consistently go the exact opposite direction I'm not sure you have much room to complain (without looking like a hypocrite, anyway). Second, that's not even what the poster you're replying to is saying. That was not a baseball value/Chaim Bloom is a genius (which, as always, is a straw man) statement, that was a medical thing, and he's almost definitely right. There's very little chance this deal didn't hinge on some sort of physical, so in order for it to have gone through there must have been some kind of medical examination that determined the knee wasn't going to be a long-term issue. I said I mostly agreed. So I was not hammering that particular point. I am not sure how I have the narrowest view, either. I give credit where it is due. I even lauded this trade. My point is it is a good risk, but it doesn’t suggest any more insight than we all have: Taylor is dispensable and Mondesi is a former big prospect with lots of questions. I’d rather have the latter, whatever his meds say. It is that simple.
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