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Predict the Top 5 Sox Prospects going into 2024
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 13, 2023 20:35:01 GMT -5
2024
1) Mayer 2) Bleis 3) Blaze Jordon 4) Roman Anthony 5) Luis Perales
2025 TBD
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Post by seamus on Feb 13, 2023 22:44:23 GMT -5
- Mayer -- Anything could happen, but just maintaining his current trajectory should be enough to keep the crown, especially if a promotion to AAA is close at hand by this time next year.
- Bleis -- If Bleis can make the adjustment stateside, the sky's the limit. He'd need Mayer to slip in some way, but taking the #1 spot is possible.
- Yorke -- I think 2022 was about injuries, and I think he bounces back to show that his bat is legit.
- Romero -- He's going to show he can stick at shortstop for at least a little while and that he's not just Diet Mayer.
- Perales -- If he can either cut the walks OR stay healthy while increasing his workload, I think he becomes the best pitching prospect in the system and a worthy top 5 guy. If he can do both, you have to start thinking about him for the top 3.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 13, 2023 23:04:45 GMT -5
1. Bleis - Not saying Mayer struggles but Bleis goes off 2. Mayer - Steady; nit-pickers will point to Ks 3. Perales - Will not miss a beat as innings grow 4. Romero - Will continue to surprise with pop 5. Rodriguez-Cruz - Breakout season as innings grow
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Post by evanstonredsox on Feb 14, 2023 12:14:49 GMT -5
1. Mayer 2. Yorke - bounceback year 3. Romero - back end of top 100 4. Bleis - think he needs a year to adjust to full-season before taking the leap 5. Hickey - all he's done is hit. Handled lefties well last year. Feel like he could be in the same prospect range as Austin Wells is now with a repeat season.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
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Post by radiohix on Feb 14, 2023 14:29:51 GMT -5
1- Romero 2- Yorke 3- ERC 4- Bleis 5- Mayer
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,828
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Post by nomar on Feb 14, 2023 14:33:19 GMT -5
1- Romero 2- Yorke 3- ERC 4- Bleis 5- Mayer This is ******* dark
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Post by incandenza on Feb 14, 2023 14:42:46 GMT -5
1- Romero 2- Yorke 3- ERC 4- Bleis 5- Mayer This is ******* dark What's so dark about having 5 60 FV prospects in the system?
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 14, 2023 14:59:53 GMT -5
What's so dark about having 5 60 FV prospects in the system? I similarly have Romero and Yorke on the outside but still just outside the T100 prospects FWIW. I do think that Blaze shows more power and emerges as a legit T100 prospect and Roman Anthony turns into an elite OF prospect.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 14, 2023 15:01:20 GMT -5
1- Romero 2- Yorke 3- ERC 4- Bleis 5- Mayer Mayer would have to take quite a few steps backward to fall to #5 IMO.
But I am down with ERC (yeah, you know me).
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 14, 2023 15:47:27 GMT -5
1 - Mayer 2 - Bleis 3 - Yorke 4 - Rafaela 5 - Anthony
Wasn't going to post since my picks are so chalky, but no one else thinks Rafaela will still have prospect status heading into 2024?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,828
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Post by nomar on Feb 14, 2023 15:50:08 GMT -5
1 - Mayer 2 - Bleis 3 - Yorke 4 - Rafaela 5 - Anthony Wasn't going to post since my picks are so chalky, but no one else thinks Rafaela will still have prospect status heading into 2024? Yeah seems like everyone is assuming Rafaela and Kavadas will graduate. (Had to sneak that in there)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 14, 2023 15:54:03 GMT -5
1 - Mayer 2 - Bleis 3 - Yorke 4 - Rafaela 5 - Anthony Wasn't going to post since my picks are so chalky, but no one else thinks Rafaela will still have prospect status heading into 2024? I haven't done my five and I probably won't because, like you said, probably pretty chalky, but I think there's a very reasonable outcome in which Rafaela doesn't graduate yet isn't a top 5 prospect in the system. edit: As ramireja pointed out below, the first round pick is going to make a real push for a top-5 spot as well, though I think the late draft kind of hurts the ceiling for how high a draftee can be ranked this year given there's less time to get game action.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 14, 2023 15:55:22 GMT -5
1. Marcelo Mayer - hoping he holds trajectory which I think would be enough to maintain top spot but... 2. Miguel Bleis - hoping he closes the gap between himself and whoever is at the top. He and Mayer could be similarly valued at year's end. 3. Mikey Romero - Hit, approach, power, defense give both a high floor and ceiling and hope that all comes to fruition. Higher floor than Yorke so going with him here. 4. Brandon Walter - I love me some Walter. Basically, if he's healthy, then I think he continues to show the combo of swing-and-miss stuff, control, and great batted ball data that solidify him as the top pitching prospect in our system. Of course, if he does all of that too well, then he could be called up and graduated by year's end, but I think the depth in our system keep him MLB innings total under 50 this year. The downside here is health, and he could tumble down the rankings a bit if unable to maintain his health this year. 5. Pick #14 - Honestly, I hope there is strong competition for this spot between whoever we draft at #14 and guys like Yorke, Roman Anthony, Paulino, Hickey, etc. That said, I'm thinking #14 in this draft should be a fringe Top 100 guy (Jace Jung, Zach Neto, Jett Williams, Dylan Lesko, and Chase DeLauter went 12-16 last year to give you a sense of prospect pedigree). In our system, that would likely slot around here at year's end, again hopefully amidst a tier of multiple prospects.
Additional thoughts: I actually think Wikelman has stronger odds of top 5 going into 2024 than Perales or ERC. Also, if Rafaela doesn't graduate (and he may very well not...) he should be a strong contender to keep his top 5 status.
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Post by tjb21 on Feb 14, 2023 15:56:17 GMT -5
1. Marcelo 2. Bleis 3. Romero 4. Ceddanne 5. 2023 highest ranked draftee (is this cheating? if yes, Mata)
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 14, 2023 16:03:52 GMT -5
1 - Mayer 2 - Bleis 3 - Yorke 4 - Rafaela 5 - Anthony Wasn't going to post since my picks are so chalky, but no one else thinks Rafaela will still have prospect status heading into 2024? I haven't done my five and I probably won't because, like you said, probably pretty chalky, but I think there's a very reasonable outcome in which Rafaela doesn't graduate yet isn't a top 5 prospect in the system. edit: As ramireja pointed out below, the first round pick is going to make a real push for a top-5 spot as well, though I think the late draft kind of hurts the ceiling for how high a draftee can be ranked this year given there's less time to get game action. I agree it's totally possible he doesn't graduate and is outside of the top 5. But he'll also be a guy who is on the verge of MLB, and probably played a bit there in 2023. If he's not top 5 things either did not go so good for him this year, or went REALLY well for a lot of other guys. If his bat looks good this year he'll probably be higher than I had him, I just love Yorke and am manifesting a mega bounce back.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 14, 2023 16:21:44 GMT -5
1) Marcelo Mayer 2) Miguel Bleis 3) Nick Yorke 4) Mikey Romero 5) Brandon Walter Graduates 1) Casas 2) Rafaela - outfield and SS in Boston 3) Mata - getting feet wet long relief and spot start
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,083
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Post by cdj on Feb 14, 2023 16:25:23 GMT -5
1) Mayer 2) Romero 3) Bleis 4) Yorke 5) Perales
Sleeper to sneak into that 5th spot for me is Meidroth. I was very impressed with his debut last season.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 14, 2023 16:46:17 GMT -5
1 - Mayer 2 - Bleis 3 - Yorke 4 - Rafaela 5 - Anthony Wasn't going to post since my picks are so chalky, but no one else thinks Rafaela will still have prospect status heading into 2024? I think Rafaela will either make some solid plate adjustments and spend enough time in Boston to graduate or AAA pitchers will expose him a bit and he'll fall out of the top 5.
EDIT: I would be surprised if he hits well in Worcester and doesn't displace someone in Boston, even in the absence of injuries (although no OF injuries would also surprise me).
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 14, 2023 17:00:57 GMT -5
1 - Mayer 2 - Bleis 3 - Yorke 4 - Rafaela 5 - Anthony Wasn't going to post since my picks are so chalky, but no one else thinks Rafaela will still have prospect status heading into 2024? I think Rafaela will either make some solid plate adjustments and spend enough time in Boston to graduate or AAA pitchers will expose him a bit and he'll fall out of the top 5. If he spends enough time in Boston to graduate something went extremely right (he absolutely forces it) or really really wrong (multiple significant injuries to the current outfielders) IMO. I think both are unlikely, the Red Sox have a lot of incentive to maintain his rookie eligibility for next year, and he's also never played in AAA and only played 70 games in AA. He could still be a good prospect and barely touch MLB this year.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 14, 2023 18:10:49 GMT -5
Non-chalk candidates:
1) Blaze Jordan - He'll be 20 all season long. If he has a nice season and earns himself a midseason promotion to Portland and hits there, now you're talking about a pretty exciting prospect.
2) Nathan Hickey - Robo umps are about to make catcher defense less important. He needs to get better at throwing basestealers out, but if people start talking about him sticking then that bat is very strong at catcher.
3) Brainer Bonaci - Guy had great strikeout/walk and OBP numbers the first half of the season but nobody believed in him because his power was anemic. Then he slugged .500 from July 1st onward. 20 years old this season.
4) Marvin Alcantara - Dude put up Xander numbers in the DSL and the reports are encouraging. One of the better mystery boxes to come stateside in a while.
Okay I only got 4.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 14, 2023 20:12:47 GMT -5
Pretty chalk but I’m going:
1. Mayer 2. Yorke 3. Bleis 4. Rafaela 5. Romero Bonus big risers since I was all chalk, I’ll go ERC & Hickey jump at least 8 spots & Paez jumps at least 13.
Bonus #2: All of Top 5 are Top 100 prospects (I don’t think it’s that bold but nice when you have Casas, Bello, Whitlock with 5+ years of cheap control on top of 5 T100)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 14, 2023 21:47:24 GMT -5
I think Rafaela will either make some solid plate adjustments and spend enough time in Boston to graduate or AAA pitchers will expose him a bit and he'll fall out of the top 5. If he spends enough time in Boston to graduate something went extremely right (he absolutely forces it) or really really wrong (multiple significant injuries to the current outfielders) IMO. I think both are unlikely, the Red Sox have a lot of incentive to maintain his rookie eligibility for next year, and he's also never played in AAA and only played 70 games in AA. He could still be a good prospect and barely touch MLB this year. If my man Ceddanne is slashing .278/.324/.500 after 71 games in Worcester (those were his numbers in Portland last year), I have a feeling my man Duran's seat is going to start feeling a little hot if he's not matching those numbers in Boston.
I think it's more likely that Rafaela struggles early at the plate but if he excels, I don't think they'll base their decisions on his rookie status. If he's good enough to be thinking 6 years down the line, I would hope that they let his play decide where he goes and lock him up on an extension at some point over the next couple years to make the years of control academic.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 15, 2023 8:06:35 GMT -5
Bleis Mayer Romero Walter Yorke
(Blaze and Lugo were tempting)
Yes I think Rafaela (and Mata) will graduate.
There's also a non-zero chance that if everybody stays healthy, injured return healthy and Rafaela does graduate that Chaim will be sitting with a loaded hand at the trade deadline, even if we are strong contenders. A top 5 traded for isn't out of the realm of possibilities, albeit, it would take a chain of events.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 15, 2023 11:45:50 GMT -5
Assuming Mata and Rafaela graduate:
Mayer Perales Yorke Paulino Bleis
I pick Perales as the breakout pitcher this summer, Paulino gains 15 good pounds and comes out of nowhere, Yorke regains his stride, and Bleis struggles some in his first exposure to full-season ball.
If Rafaela doesn't graduate, put him at #2 and move everyone else down one.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 15, 2023 16:19:40 GMT -5
If he spends enough time in Boston to graduate something went extremely right (he absolutely forces it) or really really wrong (multiple significant injuries to the current outfielders) IMO. I think both are unlikely, the Red Sox have a lot of incentive to maintain his rookie eligibility for next year, and he's also never played in AAA and only played 70 games in AA. He could still be a good prospect and barely touch MLB this year. If my man Ceddanne is slashing .278/.324/.500 after 71 games in Worcester (those were his numbers in Portland last year), I have a feeling my man Duran's seat is going to start feeling a little hot if he's not matching those numbers in Boston.
I think it's more likely that Rafaela struggles early at the plate but if he excels, I don't think they'll base their decisions on his rookie status. If he's good enough to be thinking 6 years down the line, I would hope that they let his play decide where he goes and lock him up on an extension at some point over the next couple years to make the years of control academic.
Even if Rafaela is hitting well, unless he's setting the world on fire he's not coming up to MLB and losing a year of eligibility early. After 71 games in Worcester they'd be foolish to bring him up so early as to lose a year of service time even if he is hitting well at that point. I'm also relatively bullish on Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo (with Hernandez, Refsnyder and Tapia or Allen mixing in), but even if you aren't it's an uphill battle for him to start over any of that group and for him to do it so quickly that he loses prospect status for next year would be super surprising to me.
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