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Verdugo Extension Discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2023 0:43:31 GMT -5
Verdugo: .9 bWAR Random other RF: .2 bWAR
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Post by flourcitydoughboy on Apr 21, 2023 4:50:47 GMT -5
Verdugo: .9 bWAR Random other RF: .2 bWAR Verdugo: .9 bWAR Random other RF/2B/SS: .2 bWAR
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 21, 2023 7:05:24 GMT -5
I'd dangle a 5/100 in front of him. Verdugo isn't elite but he's pretty darn good and strikes me as the kind of guy who can have some pretty darn good seasons here in his prime.
Now this is pure conjecture, but I feel Verdugo is the type of guy who doesn't check out when he gets paid and (assuming good health) rewards you for it.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 21, 2023 7:18:42 GMT -5
I'd dangle a 5/100 in front of him. Verdugo isn't elite but he's pretty darn good and strikes me as the kind of guy who can have some pretty darn good seasons here in his prime. Now this is pure conjecture, but I feel Verdugo is the type of guy who doesn't check out when he gets paid and (assuming good health) rewards you for it. He knows he needs to keep playing well to set up the next contract after 5/100, grillz collection won’t pay for itself
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 21, 2023 7:31:34 GMT -5
I'd dangle a 5/100 in front of him. Verdugo isn't elite but he's pretty darn good and strikes me as the kind of guy who can have some pretty darn good seasons here in his prime. Now this is pure conjecture, but I feel Verdugo is the type of guy who doesn't check out when he gets paid and (assuming good health) rewards you for it. I'm not saying Verdugo wouldn't be worth 20M AAV if this hot start is any indication and he's shown the ability to play a passable RF so far too. That being said, he's making 6.3M in arb this year with one more year of arb left. I'm horrible with guessing what someone's arb bump might be so I'll shoot high and say his last year maybe he gets 10M~. That being the case I'd try and play some AAV games and offer him something closer to 5/80-90. Give him more money for the first year than he'd have gotten in arb to try and keep the years 2-5 lower than 20M AAV. Just spit balling here though since it's not even May yet and who knows maybe by July he went cold and his numbers look more in line with his career norms, so I'm not really sure it's a great idea to go offer him an extension right now.
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Post by manfred on Apr 21, 2023 8:33:07 GMT -5
Verdugo: .9 bWAR Random other RF: .2 bWAR Verdugo: .9 bWAR Random other RF/2B/SS: .2 bWAR It seems strange that the board gets all pissy when certain players cone up or when Verdugo gets held to certain standards… but then when opportune these comps get pulled out. Perhaps, given the relative closeness of their ages, we can stipulate that they will likely enter the HOF within a few years of each other?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 21, 2023 9:38:27 GMT -5
I'd dangle a 5/100 in front of him. Verdugo isn't elite but he's pretty darn good and strikes me as the kind of guy who can have some pretty darn good seasons here in his prime. Now this is pure conjecture, but I feel Verdugo is the type of guy who doesn't check out when he gets paid and (assuming good health) rewards you for it. I'm not saying Verdugo wouldn't be worth 20M AAV if this hot start is any indication and he's shown the ability to play a passable RF so far too. That being said, he's making 6.3M in arb this year with one more year of arb left. I'm horrible with guessing what someone's arb bump might be so I'll shoot high and say his last year maybe he gets 10M~. That being the case I'd try and play some AAV games and offer him something closer to 5/80-90. Give him more money for the first year than he'd have gotten in arb to try and keep the years 2-5 lower than 20M AAV. Just spit balling here though since it's not even May yet and who knows maybe by July he went cold and his numbers look more in line with his career norms, so I'm not really sure it's a great idea to go offer him an extension right now. Yeah it's tough to evaluate guys because how their value can fluctate from season to season. But I generally opt towards believing a guy is generally going to get paid more in FA than we think he is. And that generally plays out. I had briefly forgotten that we had another year of control of Verdugo so buying out some arby years makes sense. Might have been nice to start that clock this year given the space they have under the luxury tax. I'm not sure 5/90 gets it done......but it's not an insulting starting point for negotiating like they did with Lester and Bogaerts.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2023 11:12:25 GMT -5
Give him Yoshida's deal. That would lock him up to age 32.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 22, 2023 13:02:22 GMT -5
Ooof, some of the numbers and years being tossed around for a Dugo contract sound too generous and I'm in the camp that says we should try to sign him. Giving him those numbers now would be a big bet on him sustaining his 2023 SSS performance. In his two full seasons with us, he's been 2.3 and 1.1 B-Ref WAR. By FG, he's been 1.9 and 1.2 those two years.
I'm thinking of something more like 5 years/$65. (Full disclosure: I tend to be wildly low when it comes to guessing the contracts players will get. I tend to be wildly accurate when a player gets a big contract in saying that the team will regret it.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 22, 2023 13:08:50 GMT -5
Ooof, some of the numbers and years being tossed around for a Dugo contract sound too generous and I'm in the camp that says we should try to sign him. Giving him those numbers now would be a big bet on him sustaining his 2023 SSS performance. In his two full seasons with us, he's been 2.3 and 1.1 B-Ref WAR. By FG, he's been 1.9 and 1.2 those two years. I'm thinking of something more like 5 years/$65. (Full disclosure: I tend to be wildly low when it comes to guessing the contracts players will get. I tend to be wildly accurate when a player gets a big contract in saying that the team will regret it.) If he maintains this level of performance he will get a much bigger deal than the numbers thrown out around here. He is playing like a top 5 player in baseball, and 8 WAR player and he has yet to reach his late 20s. Really unlikely he keeps this up obviously, but the numbers being suggested here are not implying that he will.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 22, 2023 13:26:01 GMT -5
Verdugo: .9 bWAR Random other RF/2B/SS: .2 bWAR It seems strange that the board gets all pissy when certain players cone up or when Verdugo gets held to certain standards… but then when opportune these comps get pulled out. Perhaps, given the relative closeness of their ages, we can stipulate that they will likely enter the HOF within a few years of each other? I think some of the optimism about Dugo is because he always seems to some of us to be on the verge of a big leap forward. I'm willing to bet something on that leap happening but not as much as some of the others who are posting about his value. That said, his age (26) is really not close to that of the random RF (30). In BB terms, those are four important years. Dugo will never be the player that RRFer was, but it's reasonable to expect his WAR to increase the next few years while RRFer's goes down.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2023 13:31:42 GMT -5
I am waiting until the season ends before I give Verdugo a contract based on these first 21 games. Look at his June last year:
24 games 3 HR, 19 RBIs, .337/.400/.505
August of 2021:
24 games 2 HRs, 10 RBI, .341/.410/.489
There is no doubt he is a very good player when he is on a good streak. I am not 100% sure he is a guy who does it for 150 games. Maybe this is the year (why not since he is moving into his prime). But this stretch is not at all unprecedented for him… so it is not in itself a sign of a breakout.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 22, 2023 13:36:37 GMT -5
Ooof, some of the numbers and years being tossed around for a Dugo contract sound too generous and I'm in the camp that says we should try to sign him. Giving him those numbers now would be a big bet on him sustaining his 2023 SSS performance. In his two full seasons with us, he's been 2.3 and 1.1 B-Ref WAR. By FG, he's been 1.9 and 1.2 those two years. I'm thinking of something more like 5 years/$65. (Full disclosure: I tend to be wildly low when it comes to guessing the contracts players will get. I tend to be wildly accurate when a player gets a big contract in saying that the team will regret it.) If he maintains this level of performance he will get a much bigger deal than the numbers thrown out around here. He is playing like a top 5 player in baseball, and 8 WAR player and he has yet to reach his late 20s. Really unlikely he keeps this up obviously, but the numbers being suggested here are not implying that he will. True. "Sustaining his performance" was a poor use of words on my part. In a literal sense, if he sustains the performance he has put up over the first 21 games, he'd put up a WAR/150 higher than any of us expect. My point was that it's early in the 2023 season and I think some of the numbers being thrown around are based on optimism created by his hot start. They're obviously not based on his performance over the last two full seasons. As much as I like the guy, I have to admit that by the Parcells standard ("You are what your record says you are") Dugo has been a pretty ordinary player the last two years.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 22, 2023 13:40:23 GMT -5
I am waiting until the season ends before I give Verdugo a contract based on these first 21 games. Look at his June last year: 24 games 3 HR, 19 RBIs, .337/.400/.505 August of 2021: 24 games 2 HRs, 10 RBI, .341/.410/.489 There is no doubt he is a very good player when he is on a good streak. I am not 100% sure he is a guy who does it for 150 games. Maybe this is the year (why not since he is moving into his prime). But this stretch is not at all unprecedented for him… so it is not in itself a sign of a breakout. Slight disagreement, but I generally see your point. I wouldn't "wait" until after the season to talk to him because if he has a big year, the price will go way up. I'd engage now but offer something more in line with 5 years/$65M, not 5 years/$100M.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 22, 2023 14:07:44 GMT -5
Remember Verdugo was pretty good in 2020 too, but played in a short season. He was on track to have close to a 5.7 War season. If he has another good year this year like that at his age I don’t think paying him to be 3.5-4.0 war player for 5 years in his prime is crazy. At least if he hits the open market, maybe he stays here for less if they start talking now.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 22, 2023 14:36:58 GMT -5
I think some of the estimates here are really high. I’m at 5/$66M kicking in next season, buying out his final arb year.
Essentially adding him for 4 years at $14M AAV when factoring in the arb year (estimating 1/$10M). Allows him to become a FA again at 31.
Benny got 5/75 on the open market following back to back ~3.0 WAR seasons. Verdugo last put up a >2.5 WAR season in 2019. Adjusting for a few items (should get some discount with 1 year of control, Verdugo a couple years younger, possibly more upside, contract inflation) I think the 5/$66M is pretty reasonable. I think Verdugo has a lot more to prove before you throw $100M+ at him.
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 22, 2023 16:38:35 GMT -5
I think some of the estimates here are really high. I’m at 5/$66M kicking in next season, buying out his final arb year. Essentially adding him for 4 years at $14M AAV when factoring in the arb year (estimating 1/$10M). Allows him to become a FA again at 31. Benny got 5/75 on the open market following back to back ~3.0 WAR seasons. Verdugo last put up a >2.5 WAR season in 2019. Adjusting for a few items (should get some discount with 1 year of control, Verdugo a couple years younger, possibly more upside, contract inflation) I think the 5/$66M is pretty reasonable. I think Verdugo has a lot more to prove before you throw $100M+ at him. You guys are dreaming of you think Verdugo is signing for $13 M per
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 22, 2023 18:07:38 GMT -5
I think some of the estimates here are really high. I’m at 5/$66M kicking in next season, buying out his final arb year. Essentially adding him for 4 years at $14M AAV when factoring in the arb year (estimating 1/$10M). Allows him to become a FA again at 31. Benny got 5/75 on the open market following back to back ~3.0 WAR seasons. Verdugo last put up a >2.5 WAR season in 2019. Adjusting for a few items (should get some discount with 1 year of control, Verdugo a couple years younger, possibly more upside, contract inflation) I think the 5/$66M is pretty reasonable. I think Verdugo has a lot more to prove before you throw $100M+ at him. You guys are dreaming of you think Verdugo is signing for $13 M per Didn’t say he sign it, that’s where I’d be at though.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 22, 2023 18:33:47 GMT -5
5 Years 75 mill should be the starting point. He's yet to reach potential. Played through a broken toe last year and few people even knew about it. That's a DOG!!! That's a leader. Suck it up and play. Put in the work in the offseason after losing the leader of the team. Hustle. Say the right things. Give your teammates all the credit. That's all things I'm seeing from him. That's worth money too! He's worth more then Yoshida but if we can somehow get him to sign for the same deal. There's no reason to rush on this. He loves Boston. We just need to embrace him. I live in Vegas and all the Dodgers fans out here say how they love Mookie but they really miss him and his personality. To me that means a lot.
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Post by keninten on Apr 22, 2023 20:06:32 GMT -5
5 Years 75 mill should be the starting point. He's yet to reach potential. Played through a broken toe last year and few people even knew about it. That's a DOG!!! That's a leader. Suck it up and play. Put in the work in the offseason after losing the leader of the team. Hustle. Say the right things. Give your teammates all the credit. That's all things I'm seeing from him. That's worth money too! He's worth more then Yoshida but if we can somehow get him to sign for the same deal. There's no reason to rush on this. He loves Boston. We just need to embrace him. I live in Vegas and all the Dodgers fans out here say how they love Mookie but they really miss him and his personality. To me that means a lot. I`d rather give him 3 yrs 60 mil. Agree with everything you said about him.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 22, 2023 22:37:20 GMT -5
5 Years 75 mill should be the starting point. He's yet to reach potential. Played through a broken toe last year and few people even knew about it. That's a DOG!!! That's a leader. Suck it up and play. Put in the work in the offseason after losing the leader of the team. Hustle. Say the right things. Give your teammates all the credit. That's all things I'm seeing from him. That's worth money too! He's worth more then Yoshida but if we can somehow get him to sign for the same deal. There's no reason to rush on this. He loves Boston. We just need to embrace him. I live in Vegas and all the Dodgers fans out here say how they love Mookie but they really miss him and his personality. To me that means a lot. I`d rather give him 3 yrs 60 mil. Agree with everything you said about him. I can see some sense in this approach, though I think the AAV should be a little lower. The RS have some money coming off the books after this season but not enough to make a big splash in the FA market. Giving Dugo a $14M raise would be their big move. Then they have a tone of money coming off after 2024 and could easily fit his $20M into the payroll and still have money to spend on upgrades. He'd be a FA after 2026 and still young enough to merit a QO, assuming he's as productive as I think he'll be. Ask him to choose from these offers: 5 years/$70M; 4 years/$60M; and 3 years/$56M. If he says no to all three, you can try to move him after this season or ride through next year with him and hopefully snag a pick in the 2025 draft.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 22, 2023 23:17:07 GMT -5
I'd rather give Verdugo 10 year / 10 million but guess what friends? He ain't signing any of these deals right now.
3/60, even interpreting generously buys out one arb. year for something like a 6M raise and then gives him 2/40. 5/75, similarly would effectively be effectively a 4/60 for his prime, which gives him zero upside unless he gets hurt.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 23, 2023 6:28:12 GMT -5
This might be Verdugos only chance for a payday, and it’s certainly going to be his only chance in his prime. We need outfielders, if not him then who? We’ve seen how barren FA markets can be after a handful of players who sign Mega Deals. Do we want to sign people for 400-500 million because we don’t wanna give Verdugo 100?
I think Verdugo would take a discount to stay here, I think most of our players would, whether they are homegrown or spent a lot of time here. But they are giving back pennys on the dollar not quarters.
I hate to use Bogaerts, because it feels like an extreme example. But it feels that every time we talk about a Sox impending FA the numbers that get thrown around early on mostly end up being way too low.
If you set a value on a guy and refuse to budge, and if you’re not willing to be a little irrational every once in a while, someone is always going to outbid you.
We have the Luxury of talking with Verdugo now. I think we should give him a reasonable offer, but I do think it can wait until the off-season.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 23, 2023 7:14:37 GMT -5
So the Mookie trade is good now. < ducks >
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 23, 2023 9:29:35 GMT -5
I'd rather give Verdugo 10 year / 10 million but guess what friends? He ain't signing any of these deals right now. 3/60, even interpreting generously buys out one arb. year for something like a 6M raise and then gives him 2/40. 5/75, similarly would effectively be effectively a 4/60 for his prime, which gives him zero upside unless he gets hurt. We don't know what he'll sign and what he won't sign. The contract Xander signed to keep himself here through last year surprised everybody. Ditto for Pedroia's long-term deal. Bolded: It's unlikely that he suffers a career-altering injury before he hits FA after the '24 season. But the downside risk of suffering that injury is ginormous. It could come at a cost of tens of millions of dollars. Nomar is the example who comes to mind. Fortunately, he was smart enough to marry into money. The other risk for him is that the first 22 games of this season are not predictive of his future performance and he goes back to being the mediocre player he's been the last two years. These are the reasons he might sign a reasonable deal. And if he turns them down, the Red Sox still have options. But at least try.
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