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Pre-2023 Offseason Retrospective: How'd They Do?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 3, 2023 11:53:22 GMT -5
I'm not usually a fan of "grade the thing before we know the outcome" type things (see also: write-ups of the "winners and losers" of the draft the day after it's held). But I'm just kind of curious about the general sentiment around how this offseason went down.
But note that I'm asking here about *this* offseason. For instance, losing Bogaerts was bad, but insofar as the team can be blamed it's because of what they did (or failed to do) last offseason, i.e. their laughable extension offer. I still have yet to see a single person argue they should have come close to the Padres' offer, so I don't consider that a failing of this offseason. Likewise, the fact that Story got hurt may reflect poorly on last offseason, insofar as the discount the team got for him given his health risk looks like a worse wager in retrospect; but the only relevant question for this offseason is how they've done in trying to compensate for that loss to the roster.
My own take:
Yoshida. This was their biggest acquisition, and I have no idea how to judge it since we're all just speculating about how he'll acclimate to the big leagues. What I like about him is that he should bring the high-OBP presence to the lineup that they really need, especially after the loss of Bogaerts, and some of the projections are surprisingly bullish. But he really has to hit that high-OBP potential because he doesn't bring much to the table beyond that.
Bullpen. Their second most expensive FA signing was Kenley Jansen, of all people, which is my least favorite move of the offseason. Relievers are just too volatile to ever be worth that big a paycheck, in my view. Fortunately it's only two years, but I would have much rather used those resources elsewhere. But I do like the Joely and Martin additions, as well as the trade for Bleier and even the addition of Mills, and am expecting the bullpen to be much improved this year. (To go by discussions in last year's gameday threads, that alone ought to be worth about a 10-win improvement...)
Their up-the-middle moves. I'm lumping these together because they're all part of solving the same problem: what to do with Bogaerts gone and Story hurt? I like the trade for Mondesi a lot, even if health is a big question for him. I was skeptical of Duvall at first but the more I looked at him the more I liked that move. If both those guys are healthy at once it gives the team the option of having a really stellar defensive alignment, with Mondesi at SS, Kiké at CF, and Duvall in RF. But I'm not a big believer in Arroyo as a starter and I worry about injuries breaking down this plan. I would have liked to sign Segura, who was not expensive; certainly would have preferred spending Jansen's money on him (with millions left over for another decent reliever). Frankly, I would have been pretty happy signing Correa for what he ultimately got, though that's all contingent on medical knowledge I'm entirely lacking so I can't complain about the team's judgment there.
The rotation. They were hit by some bad luck here. Going into the offseason I was interested in Heaney and Eflin. It turns out, so was Bloom! They tried to sign both, but both turned down Boston's comparable or greater offers to play elsewhere. Likewise, it seems that Eovaldi tuned down a solid offer in the pre-QO period which may have matched or exceeded what he eventually got from Texas. (Am I right about this?) I don't lament that loss too much, and I think Kluber is an adeuate replacement for Eovaldi, but I would have liked to see a bigger move here.
Turner. A solid, if unspectacular, replacement for JD Martinez and a slight upgrade. Good value for the money.
Devers. So happy about this extension! So so happy. And imagine the vibes right now if this hadn't happened...
Overall, I like the moves they made on balance; the Jansen signing is the only one I outright dislike. I feel like they go into the season with good depth and flexibility, and I'm excited to see a more patient lineup (thanks also to Casas) than we've had in recent years. But I can't help but feel like they needed to add something bigger. That might've come through trade, or a position player signing, or a pitcher signing, but I feel like they needed one more guy who is likely to give them 4 WAR or so. As it is they project to be solid almost everywhere. But is solid good enough? The Devers extension pulls the grade higher for me though. I give them a B-, though wavering between that and a B.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Mar 3, 2023 12:07:09 GMT -5
Things I liked:
Kiké extension (if that counts for this offseason)
Mondesi trade
Mills acquisition
Justin Turner upgrade
Devers extension
Giving a legit chance for Houck, Whitlock, and Bello to play out the season as starters
Barnes DFA (I was initially negative on this)
Things I disliked:
Jansen signing
Losing Thad Ward to Rule 5, and in general 40 man roster management
Not making a big move (like trading for Sean Murphy)
Things I'm unsure of:
Yoshida signing
Chris Martin signing
Hanging onto Ort and Brasier instead of German and others
I think I'm giving them a B.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 3, 2023 12:11:15 GMT -5
B- sounds about right. Most of the risks were pretty moderate, the Devers extension was obviously a requisite outcome for a salvageable offseason, and I think for the most part they got good value on the players they acquired. So high marks for doing good business but not sure if they did anything to elevate the team beyond fringe playoff contender, so hard to go much higher than that.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 3, 2023 12:39:31 GMT -5
I like the Jansen signing, especially in context of also adding Martin, Bleier, JoeRod, Mills, etc. to Schreiber, Kelly, etc. This is now a very good bullpen with established closer and backups. What a difference.
I like adding Yoshida, Turner, Duval big bats whose spray charts fit Fenway remarkably well, which should help mitigate legit reasons to struggle in 2023. I also think the experienced depth (Allen, Goodrum, Mondesi, Alfaro et al) are steps up over 2022.
I feel confident in this rotation, because it is 12 deep with real talent from Sale to Walter. It does not need Sale, Paxton, Kluber to perform like all stars, but it is entirely possible that the three can combine for 200-300 above average innings, which would be enough to lift the other nine potential starters and the pen.
Finally, this team’s cast of characters (old and new) reminds me of other happy, confident, talented teams in the recent past.
Edit: it is unlikely we will again suffer through regular bullpen blowups, no depth when four SP’s hit the IL at the same time, wonky defense, lack of both OBP and power, as well as SB’s, dour clubhouse and an interminable schedule vs the ALE. Especially compared to 2022, we are fine, can breathe again, and also hopeful.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 3, 2023 12:41:37 GMT -5
Liked:
Kluber, Joely Rodriguez and Kiké were excellent value. You could also include the decision to use Jedi mind tricks on Paxton to get him to come back for 1/4 here. Devers extension was mediocre $/Wins value but his FVAWAR (Fan Value Above Wins Above Replacement) is among the league leaders so I'm happy Glad they resisted the temptation to transition into Go For it Now mode
Didn't like:
Kenley Jensen signing Doesn't feel like they played things great with the last up the middle starter where they ended up with Duvall
Everything else I'd put in the middle.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Mar 3, 2023 12:48:11 GMT -5
If they had made most of the same moves but signed Xander to a non-mind-boggling deal (so Xander back at SS and Kiké in CF), it'd be an A. Otherwise, B. I'm intrigued to see how the team shakes out with a deeper bullpen even if Jansen was a bit pricey.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 3, 2023 13:08:03 GMT -5
B-
But it’s very dependent on Yoshida- if he’s good the grade is higher, if he’s bad the grade is lower
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Post by seamus on Mar 3, 2023 13:48:41 GMT -5
Maybe I'm grading on a curve, but I went A-. I like the moves made to address the bullpen and I think we're going to look back at the Yoshida move as an absolute bargain. The Devers extension was huge, the Duvall signing looks really solid, and I actually think the rotation is in good shape. The only problem is the middle infield, but a lot of that is just Story's injury and I think the options they've developed to address that gives them a lot of flexibility to adjust the lineup based on who's succeeding and who's healthy. The Mondesi trade was a good one and I think they added a lot of solid depth options (Chang, Goodrum, Tapia, Alfaro, etc.) all over the roster.
Aside from maybe losing Thad Ward, I don't really have any complaints (and I'm not losing sleep over Rule 5 guys). I'm also honestly not sure what else I could realistically have wanted them to do without blowing through the CBT threshold or dramatically overpaying in terms of prospects for someone like Bryan Reynolds.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Mar 3, 2023 14:04:48 GMT -5
I gave them the eternal optimists B+ everything depends on health, but unlike last year, I think if players can't stay healthy they'll have some value to trade at the Deadline.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 3, 2023 14:25:44 GMT -5
Gave a B+.
Main pros were: Devers extension, Yoshida (yes Iâm giving them a plus here, Iâm optimistic on him given the projections and my personal stylistic preference), Kiké resigning, and I think Kluber and Rodriguez were relatively good value. I also liked the Mondesi/Duvall acquisitions as a way to fill the up the middle spots, and the Barnes for Bleier swap. Minor points for JD to JT and the minor league signings I think made sense, Paxton picking up the option is good risk/reward too. I think the team needed a refacing and got it.
Cons: Donât like the Jansen signing as a way to allocate resources. Iâm uncertain if Andrus or Iglesias were options without full season starting roles. I would have liked to see some kind of Dalbec or Duran deal but I get it there.
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Post by notnickyorke on Mar 3, 2023 15:43:16 GMT -5
B+
Overall the moves work pretty well together, which is a compliment I have never given a Bloom offseason before. There doesn't seem to be an obvious holes on the roster entering the season like 2022 (RF), 2021 (CF, bench 1B), 2020 (an entire starting rotation). I think the team projects to be much better then last year both offensively and defensively. The starting pitching looks slightly better and the bull pen demonstrably better. I would characterize the whole offseason as way less star power but a much better overall team.
There are some nitpicking things I didn't care for that keep it from being an A. Jansen seems like a bit of an overpay when compared to other high end relievers. I would have probably taken Josh Bell's contract over Turners. Hard to believe they couldn't have easily topped the Sean Murphy trade package to shore up what is probably the weakest position in the entire system. Even the Willson Contreras contract looks like a fair deal I would have been happy for the soxs to make. Not protecting Thad Ward over quite a few other guys could haunt us in a few years. I would have liked to see them sign an extension or two with young guys (houke, Casas), but we don't know the negotiating process.
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Post by joshuacoffee on Mar 3, 2023 15:46:12 GMT -5
I'm feeling solid at a C+. They needed to look at 4 things in the offseason. SS/2nd: they get an F there. Outfield: B-, I really like Yoshida in a vacuum, I don't love a Yoshida, Verdugo, Duvall outfield. Bullpen: A, I would have said A- but the addition by subtraction on Barnes actually improves it. Starter: C, I classify Eovaldi to Kluber as a likely downgrade, and there's a lot riding on Sale being Sale from 5 years ago, Whitlock being a better starter than he's been so far, and Bello being what we was towards the end of the year and not when he first came up. I guess there an outside chance that Paxton pleasantly surprises and takes a little pressure off of needing all three of those things to happen. I would have loved to see Wacha back, especially for as affordable as he was.
They also could have upgraded to C, but that would likely have come at the expense of OF or middle IF, so I'm good that they didn't do that.
The problem is the thing that was going to help the most was going to be to get a great SS. There were 3 top line SS, two of them without health concerns available. They didn't get any of them. I know its only one thing, but it was the most important thing this offseason. Sure, they could have done that one thing and nothing else and still failed the offseason, but in my mind, based on what was out there and what the team needed, there was no way for the offseason to be called a success without doing that one thing. I guess maybe if they had signed Judge, but that was never going to happen.
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Post by manfred on Mar 3, 2023 15:50:32 GMT -5
C I don’t like Paxton. Kluber is a huge risk because of age. Sale is a massive question. So starting pitching is going to really need the kids.
Losing X is brutal on and off the the field. I’m not a baseball fan for laundry or for constantly checking to see who this guy is in my scorecard. But this team is still not strong up the middle. Going into a season with your projected CF now your projected SS — and not even having a clear projected 2b or CF? Not great.
It feels a bit like last year. We went into the season with many saying we sucked at 1b and RF… and we did. This year, I’d say we don’t necessarily suck up the middle, but it isn’t like we aren’t looking at huge question marks.
The bullpen is a little better, but if Whitlock AND Houck start, it is not nearly as better as it might seem.
If Yoshida turns out to be a stud, I’ll bump up to B-. That was the major acquisition.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 3, 2023 16:45:43 GMT -5
C I don’t like Paxton. Kluber is a huge risk because of age. Sale is a massive question. So starting pitching is going to really need the kids. Losing X is brutal on and off the the field. I’m not a baseball fan for laundry or for constantly checking to see who this guy is in my scorecard. But this team is still not strong up the middle. Going into a season with your projected CF now your projected SS — and not even having a clear projected 2b or CF? Not great. It feels a bit like last year. We went into the season with many saying we sucked at 1b and RF… and we did. This year, I’d say we don’t necessarily suck up the middle, but it isn’t like we aren’t looking at huge question marks. The bullpen is a little better, but if Whitlock AND Houck start, it is not nearly as better as it might seem. If Yoshida turns out to be a stud, I’ll bump up to B-. That was the major acquisition. Disagreeing with the decisions is reasonable enough, and agree with your take on the loss of X, but they do have a clear projected 2B and CF no? I mean in my mind it’s Duvall and Arroyo until Mondesi returns, zero doubt about it.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 3, 2023 17:21:13 GMT -5
C I don’t like Paxton. Kluber is a huge risk because of age. Sale is a massive question. So starting pitching is going to really need the kids. Losing X is brutal on and off the the field. I’m not a baseball fan for laundry or for constantly checking to see who this guy is in my scorecard. But this team is still not strong up the middle. Going into a season with your projected CF now your projected SS — and not even having a clear projected 2b or CF? Not great. It feels a bit like last year. We went into the season with many saying we sucked at 1b and RF… and we did. This year, I’d say we don’t necessarily suck up the middle, but it isn’t like we aren’t looking at huge question marks. The bullpen is a little better, but if Whitlock AND Houck start, it is not nearly as better as it might seem. If Yoshida turns out to be a stud, I’ll bump up to B-. That was the major acquisition. I have a hunch that they'll get a decent amount of bullpen innings out of one or both of those guys. But even if they don't, they're losing 83 bullpen IP from those two... and also like 190 IP from Davis, Familia, Danish, German, Darwinzon, Diekman, and Robles, who collectively had an ERA well above 5. Those guys combined for about -2.5 WAR; Whitlock and Houck gave them +1.1 WAR as relievers.
So collectively, all the guys above, including Houck and Whitlock, gave them -1.4 WAR. The 2023 bullpen already has a substantially better WAR total than that!
Someone will probably end up sucking - someone always does! - but it should be a pretty low bar to clear to have a much better bullpen than they had last year, given both the additions and the subtractions they've made.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 3, 2023 18:00:01 GMT -5
I came in at a C+
I think Kiké will play an excellent defensive SS, and Duvall will play an excellent CF but my problem with both of them is they are feast or famine hitters. Over the course of the season Kiké might make up the offensive deficit on defense but that's still a lot of production lost at SS on the other side of the ball. I expect Duvall will be a mirror image of Kiké, with most of his value pegged to one side of play.
I liked the Yoshida signing and I really want him to be an OBP monster like he was overseas, and so far, in the games I have seen him in spring training, it's not like he's been Hanley in LF. He looks like a solid but unspectacular defender, so if his offense is even half as good as advertised, it's a winning deal.
I didn't really have a strong opinion on the Jansen signing, but our pen should be better than last year. I still wish they would fire Braiser into the sun with a t-shirt cannon, but like Mick said, "You can't always get what you want..."
I'm skeptical Arroyo can be a healthy player all year as a starter, when he plays he is a solid above average player, but I'm leery of him being a starter.
I didn't care that we didn't overextend ourselves @ C. Of all of the positions I was most worried about, it seemed to be the least concern imo. I was more worried about the outfield, and the middle infield. As a former pitcher, I know how demoralizing it is when your defense gives up runs on plays that should be made.
The rotation has a myriad of outcomes, but I could see with rosy glasses how it could be a very, very good rotation with a modicum of luck. Of course as I type this, Paxton already had to leave his first ST start with a hamstring issue, but on the positive side, at least it's a hamstring and not an oblique or elbow issue.
Lastly, I've been pleasantly surprised by how they have showed out in ST. I know many say not to read too much into ST, and I take performance in ST with a grain of salt, but you have to admit they look pretty solid so far, and they look like they are having fun. It might seem insignificant for paid ballplayers to have fun, but in my experience the teams that do usually do a lot of one other thing, winning.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Mar 3, 2023 19:47:19 GMT -5
A- for me. Kluber, Turner, Jansen, Duval, Yoshida, all high reward risk additions. Martin, Mondesi, Rodriquez, Blier do not bring as high of a reward potential, but hey, at a player cost of Barnes and Taylor, that is a damn good upgrade. Tapia or Allen could mean we don't have to settle for an under performing Duran. Alfaro or C. Hamilton may be on the opening day roster at catcher.
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Post by manfred on Mar 3, 2023 21:47:46 GMT -5
A- for me. Kluber, Turner, Jansen, Duval, Yoshida, all high reward risk additions. Martin, Mondesi, Rodriquez, Blier do not bring as high of a reward potential, but hey, at a player cost of Barnes and Taylor, that is a damn good upgrade. Tapia or Allen could mean we don't have to settle for an under performing Duran. Alfaro or C. Hamilton may be on the opening day roster at catcher. I get you are likely calling “cost” trades, but there were a lot of guys out: X, Eovaldi, Wacha, Strahm, JDM. So that should be balanced with incoming.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 3, 2023 22:22:16 GMT -5
Seems kind of early for this, but I'd go somewhere between a C+ and a B-. I guess if I'm feeling generous B- will do.
I think they helped themselves more than they hurt themselves, but other than bullpen and in my opinion, Yoshida, they would be fortunate to break even.
And if Xander was considered part of the 2022/2023 offseason grade then I'd lower the grade to C-/D+.
I don't have an issue with Bloom not giving Xander his ridiculous contract. I would have been ticked if 200 miilion was what Xander got in free agency. From what I remember reading the Sox weren't even runners up, that several teams topped what the Sox offered. But the Padres, jilted by Judge and Turner, blew the other offers away.
The Bogaerts loss was from the previous spring when they foolishly lowballed him.
So while the Sox improved themselves they'll feel his loss on the field.
I loved the Devers extension. If they didnt get that done they would have been tarred and feathered and rightfully so.
I wanted Yoshida and they got him. That in my opinion was their best move. I was hoping he'd be a high OBP leadoff guy but apparently he won't be leading off. I think it's a good move, but the question will be how good a move was it?
I like their bullpen improvements for the most part. I have reservations about Jansen being very effective. My hope is that he is serviceable. If he is then the Sox will have the structured bullpen they have lacked. So while I'm not wild about Jansen's signing, I get why Bloom did it and unless he's a complete disaster I won't give Bloom any flack about that signing. I like the Martin signing. I didnt understand the DFA of Barnes given how well he pitched toward the end, but they turned him into a useful lefty in Bleier who I've always liked. I don't like "swapping" Strahm for Rodriguez but I get it was to save 5 million. I think Rodriguez walks too many guys.
I was disappointed that they didnt improve their starting pitching. I would have preferred they keep Eovaldi. So now they're relying on often injured veteran starters and the maturation of Bello and Whitlock. Not a lot of certainty there.
The loss of Eovaldi for the addition of Kluber is not a positive to me. I wanted Kluber a couple of years ago, but his velocity is down. I like that he doesnt walk guys, and I do like the Sox targeting pitchers with great control, but I think Kluber will be a pinata, getting whacked around. I think he'll have an ERA north of 4.5. They also lost a guy who gave them strong results last year in Wacha.
Turner has been better with LA than I thought he's been. Still I would have preferred JD Martinez who I think is more of a cleanup hitter. I know his power was down last year but I really do think JD figured out his mechanical issues. While 2018 JD is gone, I think he's still a damn productive hitter. Wouldnt be shocked to see him whack 25 HRs this year. Turner is more of a #2 hitter but will have to bat behind Devers to protect him as there is no other RH capable of doing that. Turner is 38, so I'm not convinced he'll be better than JDM this year, although that can be true and he could still be an improvement on 2022 JDM.
Its funny. I might have been the first one here to mention the possibility of Duvall. I prefer him to Andrus or Iglesias, but more because of fit. They needed somebody to fill Renfroe's skillset in the lineup, RH bopper. I just worry he won't hit enough.
I don't have a great feeling about Duvall though. I can't shake the feeling that there will be an injury somewhere and Duvall will wind up in RF and that by June the everyday CF will be Cedanne Rafaela.
I'm not crazy about the Josh Taylor for Mondesi deal, but I get why Bloom did it. Mondesi has upside and crazy good speed, but he's often hurt and has zero plate discipline. I'm not optimistic that either he or Arroyo stay healthy, but I do like Valdez, so maybe that's the silver lining.
I am concerned about the catching. I guess Alfaro is what Ronaldo Hernandez would be in his best case scenario. They might need him if Wong isn't ready.
Like I said there's a huge error bar with this team. They could win 90 or lose 90. I'll pick them at .500.
I can see a scenario where the rotation implodes and the offense lacks the thunder to offset their rotation issues.
But then again I've seen times where the FO re-cooks the chemistry and the team gels out of the chute, which could happen here.
Like I said I'll pick between the two extremes and give Bloom the B+/C- mark.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 4, 2023 10:36:04 GMT -5
I'd say C/C+. Overall, unremarkable, given the opportunities and the team's revenue/resources.
Bottom Line: This team is not as good at or better than Houston, NYY, Toronto, Tampa, Cleveland and may not even be better than Seattle (barring significant injuries to these teams). Which means at best, they're in a rock fight against Seattle and maybe Minn for the last play-off/play-in spot. The front office isn't bad, but it's not outstanding or even above average. They are midling, like this team. And so we get a team that, unless everything - and I mean everything - goes right and injuries are minimal, is also average. Not what one would expect from an organization that has an advantage that perhaps only two or so other teams in the AL have and maybe six total in MLB: extremely high revenues.
Infield: C-. Kiké is a downgrade offensively at SS and probably a slight downgrade from X's performance defensively last year. Second base is...well, I love Arroyo, but does anyone think they'll get 450 PAs or more out of him? Casas is the upgrade. Devers holds serve. Catcher: Two back-ups comprising all your games is, at least statistically, a sub-standard move. This is a :everything has to go right" spot. That means that, somehow, both these guys must 1) handle the staff well, 2) play solid defensively, 3) handle the increased traffic on the base paths that the new rules will generate, get on base at a better than .300 OPS. Outfield: C+. Verdugo is what he looks like which is above MLB average at the plate and a solid LF. Unfortunately, he's moving to RF where he's sub-par defensively. Yoshinda can be a big plus offensively but the book on his defense is meh, so we'll see. Duvall is on of the "everything has to go right" guys, but he's 34, will struggle to have an OBP over .300 and has only had two seasons since 2018 where he's played more than 85 games. So if he's 2021 Adam Duvall, it's a big win. But if he's not, he's likely a 1.0ish fWAR player.
Rotation: C/B. This is the ultimate "everything has to go right" area. If it does, then it's a solid B trending toward a B+. BUT, we have:
Sale - who's money when he's well, but he's not been well since mid-2019 Bello - who now looks like he may not start the season on-time. Kluber - who's 36 and could be the 3.0 fWAR guy he was last year or 1.5 fWAR guy he was from 2019 until last year. Paxton - oops, my hammy! - who might be good or even very good if he can stay on the field. Pivetta - who's a 5 and then...who? Whitlock - has great stuff but hasn't thrown more than 80 innings since 2018? Houck - another guy who has flashes of brilliance but hasn't pitched a lot of innings in a season since 2018. Oh, and he gives up .330+ .OBP vs. lefties. Is he a starter, 3-inning opener or elite pen guy? I vote for either of the last two, but I don't get a vote.
The 4/5/6s - Walter, Crawford, Mata, Murphy and - break glass if everyone else is unavailable that day - Winckowski.
Pen: B-/B+. Pens are so unpredictable, but I think they made a legit effort here, though I'm not sure about the Jansen move, especially with the pitch clock. I'm assuming Houck is a pen arm, but I think if they lose Whitlock to the rotation, it makes this a more brittle group.
DH: B I would've preferred to roll the dice on a 35-year-old JD Martinez at less money than a 38-year-old Justin Turner, but, compared to last year, this is an upgrade on paper (although I think JD will be back to a 25+ HR/.350+ OBP self this year), with Turner perhaps being able to spell Casas and Devers for a total of 10-20 games combined this year. Solid move.
I'm hopeful that this team, as constructed, can get on pace for 90 wins. But, statistically, given the age of key players and the top of the rotation (minus Bello), the wide performance variance around the diamond, the schedule, which has the Sox playing (I think) the second-most number of teams that were above .500 last year, they look more like a 78-82 win group.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Mar 4, 2023 10:42:46 GMT -5
A- for me. Kluber, Turner, Jansen, Duval, Yoshida, all high reward risk additions. Martin, Mondesi, Rodriquez, Blier do not bring as high of a reward potential, but hey, at a player cost of Barnes and Taylor, that is a damn good upgrade. Tapia or Allen could mean we don't have to settle for an under performing Duran. Alfaro or C. Hamilton may be on the opening day roster at catcher. I get you are likely calling “cost” trades, but there were a lot of guys out: X, Eovaldi, Wacha, Strahm, JDM. So that should be balanced with incoming. Good point about the additional losses not involved in trades. I also did not mention a full season of Cassas and Bello, or a revived Sale/ Paxton, in the additions. In my mind, success for off season 2023 was putting together a team that can make it back to the post season. I believe that has been accomplished. It took allot of work to do that and I find the breadth of additions pretty impressive.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 4, 2023 11:04:28 GMT -5
The mistakes that led to X leaving were made over months, but the gut punch came this winter, so I count his departure as part of the off-season. I see that as such a costly, avoidable and amateur-hour screwup that it destroys my off-season rating. I'll go D.
I liked some of the moves, but only because the contracts are short, not because they acquired any real impact, other than possibly Yoshida, whom the projection systems like more than other teams' evaluators do.
Moves I liked: Turner - I was disappointed when the 'Stros took Jose Abreu off the board early with 3 years/$58.5, though I wasn't unhappy that the Red Sox didn't match the contract. In a non-GFIN year, I'd rather have Turner at one year plus a player option for a $10.5M AAV.
Kluber - Again, short-term, meaning he won't tie up payroll in 2025, which I see as the next plausible GFIN year. He'll be 37 and missed big chunks of the 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons, but he did pitch 164 decent innings (by FIP, not by adjusted ERA) last year. Maybe he'll come close to that again.
Mondesi - Nothing not to like. If he's healthy, he should be solid at SS and it'll allow KKH to go back to CF. Low acquisition cost, only one year of commitment and a low AAV.
And of course, we're all happy to still have Raffy around.
Moves I didn't like: Duvall - As someone who wants the Red Sox to get back to focusing on OBP, I hated this signing. His low OBP and high K rate will make game threads entertaining.
Jansen - This is a funny one. I dislike it, but don't hate it. The AAV isn't a great value, but he and Martin should mean a massive upgrade to the BP. I'm surprised there isn't more conversation about how this move runs contrary to the modern thinking that it's not wise to pay a lot for a closer.
Barnes - Not a biggie because having him/not having him won't move the needle much on the 2023 season. But I have trouble believing that he would have been the worst P on the staff.
Why are you asking me? How would I know? Yoshida - Love the OBP potential, but if his defense if bad, his d-WAR will offset some of his o-WAR. Beni got $4.5M less in AAV and offers a more predictable performance. I might have preferred him. If they had swooped in early, maybe they could have gotten him for four years.
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Post by manfred on Mar 4, 2023 11:29:38 GMT -5
One other thing that falls in a “to taste” category: after years of clearing salary, short-term contracts for flexibility, and resetting the tax line, this felt like a winter we’d waiting for — the biggie. This was the reward for pain. So losing X, not getting any premier guy, still doing a lot of the short-term, role playing guys etc. just feels like a disappointment. I am excited to watch Yoshida play. But he is the only guy they added that makes me want to watch. Guys like Duvall? Jerseys.
Add: it feels especially disappointing since there appear to be two obviously improvable positions in the OF and MI. Even DH with Turner feels like a near push. It just seems like more could have been done to address some of the weak spots. I’ll give C the benefit of the doubt. There are at least a lot of young guys in the mix (and I hate spending big on C).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 4, 2023 12:03:31 GMT -5
Solid B+. I think that the Sox had already decided last year that Devers was the one they would spend heavily on and that Xander was welcome back but on the team's terms. I believe they were already looking at transitioning to a new core made of those who emerged from a farm headed by Casa, Bello, Mayer, Rafaela, Yorke, Mata etc knowing that some will fall as others rise. I mean where was X going to go as his time at SS was limited to a couple of seasons of at best average, and probably less than that, defense? 2B for a while but even that would have had a defensive cost under the new rules and there was no guarantee he could transition to LF. Given all that, they moved to bring in pieces that get the team to the emerging core and could complement it as they arrived. If they had been able to reel in Xander then they don't get Yoshida and/or Turner to give him a home as he leaves shortstop. Meanwhile the pen is better, flexible complementary pieces are in place and maybe they catch lightning in a bottle while part twp evolves. Overall, nice job.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2023 12:05:08 GMT -5
C+
You didn't trade Bogaerts because you said you wanted to resign him. Him getting a crazy deal was always likely, you don't get a pass for not being able to read the market. Heck they weren't even close, even without the Padres, reports of multiple teams over 200 million. He either lied to appease the fans or can't get a read on market values. I basically knew this would happen, which is why I destroyed him at last years deadline. He didn't bring back any of the players he should have traded, when he used resigning them as a reason not to move them!
Devers is the only thing he's done basically not acting like a small to mid market team.
His big free agent signing is injured again and that was a known problem.
He's added Paxton and Kluber to Sale, which is basically what this team is overall. Those guys could be great or all 3 could deal with tons of injuries. Given you basically have one proven inning eater, it likely means starting for Whitlock and Houck.
Which means your bullpen is losing two of its most important pieces. Like that he brought in a proven closer, hate the contract. Lot of money on Jansen and Martin. I liked Barnes and Taylor when healthy.
Hated his roster management of the 40 man roster, a lot of talent has gone out the door and Bloom created this mess by usually trading for guys that needed to be added to the 40 man, see Vazquez trade as recent example. We'll see how some of these guys do, maybe Bloom made the right call. Yet I have to believe there was a better path. Add this to the deadline and it's just a ton of prospects lost, when that's been his sole focus for years.
Give him credit for not trading say Verdugo like he's done for 3 straight years. Yet also no very meaningful trades for impactful talent. It's a huge part of team building and year 4 he's still not making any. Where's that creative roster builder we thought we were getting?
While this is likely his 2nd best constructed team to the 2021 team, mainly because he addressed depth in most areas. A bare minimum given our large payroll and the money he had to spend. I can't figure out why no SS, allowing Hernandez to really fill in the holes all over the place. Another inning eating starter would have been nice, allowing Whitlock to go to the bullpen coming off an injury while starting. If he had done that, I would have bumped him up a grade.
I'm also kinda upset that he seems unwilling to really go past the luxury tax line. Last year was just stupid, you don't stay close so you can get back under and then don't. If you're giving out short-term deals, going over the tax line, yet staying under the lose a draft pick line should be in play after you reset. He had the money, likely a make or break year for him and we get this. I don't see the creative moves, I see budget shopping on a fixed budget. I see a guy happy with 50-50 your team is good or bad in year four on the job. As others have said he had the opportunity to add more impactful talent, he just passed.
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