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4/26 ML Gameday Thread: Barnes versus baby Yankees
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Post by leo on Apr 27, 2013 8:40:51 GMT -5
Exactly why I don't give a F, what a guy does prior to AA Reminds me of the discussion we had in ST about the ceiling of Rubby, Webster and Barnes. I still don't get how Barnes has the same rating/ceiling than Webster. At the very least, it's time to adjust that soon. Barnes has done jack shit in AA, while Webster turned in a quality start in the Majors and cruised through AAA.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2013 9:05:51 GMT -5
Exactly why I don't give a F, what a guy does prior to AA Reminds me of the discussion we had in ST about the ceiling of Rubby, Webster and Barnes. I still don't get how Barnes has the same rating/ceiling than Webster. At the very least, it's time to adjust that soon. Barnes has done jack shit in AA, while Webster turned in a quality start in the Majors and cruised through AAA. It's because people fall in love with projections and when there aren't any warts due to low competition it's hard to see what's going to happen. Thus, people look to the sexiness of the great tools and make the educated guess that those will translate. They take the pitcher who we ave more information on and highlight their weaknesses. Happens all the time. I've changed my mindset over the past year so that I greatly temper my expectations for any player under AA. Cecchini is the player I'm really holding back my excitement on. Lots to love, but until we see him in AA its difficult to know how excited we should get. A ball competition is just so low in comparison to AA.
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Post by soxfan06 on Apr 27, 2013 9:47:17 GMT -5
Christian Vazquez is awesome.
Threw out 3 more last night. 11 for 23 on the year.
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Post by leo on Apr 27, 2013 9:50:45 GMT -5
Reminds me of the discussion we had in ST about the ceiling of Rubby, Webster and Barnes. I still don't get how Barnes has the same rating/ceiling than Webster. At the very least, it's time to adjust that soon. Barnes has done jack shit in AA, while Webster turned in a quality start in the Majors and cruised through AAA. It's because people fall in love with projections and when there aren't any warts due to low competition it's hard to see what's going to happen. Thus, people look to the sexiness of the great tools and make the educated guess that those will translate. They take the pitcher who we ave more information on and highlight their weaknesses. Happens all the time. I've changed my mindset over the past year so that I greatly temper my expectations for any player under AA. Cecchini is the player I'm really holding back my excitement on. Lots to love, but until we see him in AA its difficult to know how excited we should get. A ball competition is just so low in comparison to AA. With regard to the sexiness of tools, in this forum, there are a few things that are considered the holy grail, that will always translate into ML success (fastball command, plate discipline). whereas other raw skills are greatly underappreciated, e.g. Reddicks raw ability to square up a ball, even though he hacks at everything (hint: he saw just as many P per AB as Dustin Pedroia in 2012, and sees 4.23 so far this season), or Webster's arsenal of pitches, even though he supposedly lacks command (surprise surprise, he converted from SS in late HS).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 27, 2013 19:37:28 GMT -5
Kolbrin Vitek played 2B last night. Start of something new or just a one time thing? It's definitely the first time he's played second base as a pro, but I wouldn't read into it. Linares left the game with an apparent injury, and in the following defensive switch, Vitek entered at 2B, Dent went from LF to RF, Gibson went from SS to LF, and Meneses went from 2B to SS. The first three players I listed there were all playing those positions for the first time in the pros (although remember that Vitek played 2B for a year in college). With Bogaerts away for his sister's wedding, they had no choice. They hadn't activated Bermudez yet, so the bench was Spring and Vitek.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 27, 2013 20:52:04 GMT -5
With regard to the sexiness of tools, in this forum, there are a few things that are considered the holy grail, that will always translate into ML success (fastball command, plate discipline). whereas other raw skills are greatly underappreciated, e.g. Reddicks raw ability to square up a ball, even though he hacks at everything (hint: he saw just as many P per AB as Dustin Pedroia in 2012, and sees 4.23 so far this season), or Webster's arsenal of pitches, even though he supposedly lacks command (surprise surprise, he converted from SS in late HS). Really don't understand this continuing stream of comments portraying Reddick as somehow proving his doubters wrong. The guy had a brutal second half that led to an overall .305 OBP last year, and he's at .250 OBP in a short stretch of this season. Outside of a couple good months beginning of last year, he's pretty much exactly what his doubters have said he'd be: a guy with power who doesn't get on base enough to be valuable as an offensive player. That may change, but so far ... that's the way it's gone. He does play good D, tho.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2013 20:57:28 GMT -5
The funny thing is his .250 OBP only comes with a .150 average.. I do agree with you though
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 27, 2013 22:31:34 GMT -5
Barnes is sporting a .523 BABIP through his first four starts in Portland. Never going to have pretty numbers when that's happening
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2013 12:57:15 GMT -5
Barnes is sporting a .523 BABIP through his first four starts in Portland. Never going to have pretty numbers when that's happening Yes, but he's giving up lots of hard contact. 33.3% LD% is second in the system to Anthony Carter. So while the BABIP is going to come down a little, it's not like we can expect it to come down 200 points or anything based on the batted ball data. Not that I'm worried yet. Double-A is a hard adjustment. Webster gave up 10 hits per nine in his first run through Double-A.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2013 13:21:46 GMT -5
Batted ball data at the minor league level is super unreliable, plus research shows that line drive rate is not predictive for pitchers. Honestly, I would place little to no weight on line drive rates in isolation, unless it's backed up with scouting reports indicating that he's also giving up hard contact. Barnes' strikeout and walk rates are still pretty solid, and it's not like he's giving up a ton of home runs, either. He has a 3.20 FIP, and it's only been four starts so far, so I'm not really worried.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2013 17:56:16 GMT -5
Batted ball data at the minor league level is super unreliable, plus research shows that line drive rate is not predictive for pitchers. Honestly, I would place little to no weight on line drive rates in isolation, unless it's backed up with scouting reports indicating that he's also giving up hard contact. Barnes' strikeout and walk rates are still pretty solid, and it's not like he's giving up a ton of home runs, either. He has a 3.20 FIP, and it's only been four starts so far, so I'm not really worried. Fair points. Instead, then, I'll point out that his .581 slugging against is second-highest in the system among pitchers w/ 10 IP. With a .387 BAA (highest in the system for 10 ip), that's a .194 ISO. He's getting hit hard Again, not saying he's toast at all. Just saying he needs to do better at limiting hard contact.
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