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Post by vmoss on Jul 29, 2023 7:08:54 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 29, 2023 7:29:26 GMT -5
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Post by vmoss on Jul 29, 2023 7:38:48 GMT -5
Any idea what pick is rewarded for rookie of year runner up to #5?
Thanks.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 29, 2023 8:07:21 GMT -5
Any idea what pick is rewarded for rookie of year runner up to #5? Thanks. None. Only to the team the winner is on. If in the 1st few years they're a runner up or top 3 I think it is to MVP or Cy Young Award then an extra pick is awarded. |
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Post by planb on Jul 29, 2023 8:24:31 GMT -5
Casas is up to 4th best odds for AL ROY (+2500) on Draftkings
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Post by KoreaSoxFan on Jul 29, 2023 9:31:52 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 29, 2023 11:03:21 GMT -5
That's really poorly worded. My understanding is you get a pick if the player wins ROY or finishes in the top 3 for CYA or MVP before reaching arb gets the team a pick. It's definitely not top 5.
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Post by capesox on Jul 29, 2023 16:05:18 GMT -5
Never read the new rules on this before. So Red Sox will lose a year of control with Casas if he is in the top 2 for Rookie of the year. Would think it will make it more beneficial to try and lock him up for a long-term deal this off season if that were to happen.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 29, 2023 16:22:14 GMT -5
Never read the new rules on this before. So Red Sox will lose a year of control with Casas if he is in the top 2 for Rookie of the year. Would think it will make it more beneficial to try and lock him up for a long-term deal this off season if that were to happen. No, if a player finishes top two with less than a year of service time, they get bumped up to one year of service time. Casas played last year and was on this season's opening day roster, so he's already going to reach one year.
This did cost the Orioles a year of Adley Rutchsman, after he finished 2nd with a May 21st debut.
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Post by capesox on Jul 29, 2023 16:26:58 GMT -5
ok, got it. Thanks for the explanation.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 2, 2023 21:25:08 GMT -5
Casas is up to 4th best odds for AL ROY (+2500) on Draftkings Now second at +750. A lot at stake between Triston and Gunnar this month deciding whether Boston or Baltimore gets an extra first rounder. I don't think the race is over yet. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2023 21:46:53 GMT -5
Casas has pretty close to 0% chance. Voters don't stray from what WAR says too much, and Casas is at 1.3 to Henderson's 3.3
It's not a real gambling market producing useful price info unless you can bet Yes and No on Casas to win ROY. They only let you bet Yes. All Casas being +750 tells you is that DraftKings thinks thats a sucker's bet to take.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 3, 2023 7:27:36 GMT -5
Imagine for a second if Henderson wasn't a pick - the WAR gap between Volpe and Casas is pretty notable, but Casas has much better offensive stats and has gotten more (all) of his value down the stretch, and both of those things voters really care about. I can't imagine the response to whoever the voters picked would be a particularly friendly one!
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 3, 2023 8:42:20 GMT -5
Casas has pretty close to 0% chance. Voters don't stray from what WAR says too much, and Casas is at 1.3 to Henderson's 3.3 It's not a real gambling market producing useful price info unless you can bet Yes and No on Casas to win ROY. They only let you bet Yes. All Casas being +750 tells you is that DraftKings thinks thats a sucker's bet to take. 1.5 to 3.2 now. Don't let Casas get hot  |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659 
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Post by cdj on Sept 3, 2023 10:25:19 GMT -5
If he goes scorching and ends with like .270-30-75 it will be awfully tough to deny!
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 3, 2023 11:08:06 GMT -5
Never read the new rules on this before. So Red Sox will lose a year of control with Casas if he is in the top 2 for Rookie of the year. Would think it will make it more beneficial to try and lock him up for a long-term deal this off season if that were to happen. I'd never do that. You want to see at least 2 years of performance, prep, training and adjustments made. I'm sure most clubs think the same as they have the leverage. This was negotiated by MLBPA, so to offset the lost year of arbitration, the extra pick is there to offset that. It's a good plan that benefits both sides really win win. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 3, 2023 11:51:58 GMT -5
After the first ~month of the season (Mar/Apr) where he was overly passive (4.34 P/PA; 17.4% BB; 29.3% K - all monthly highs) he seemed to get a bit pull-happy (53.1% in May and 52.4% in June) before settling into his current groove (28.6% to 34%). His groundball rate also peaked in May/June (42.9%/41.3%) before dropping back to 27.7%-33.3%.
His second half BABIP (.382) isn't likely to be sustained (especially given his lack of speed) so keeping the ball in the air will be key. Lot of good to be taken out of his second half surge.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 3, 2023 11:55:46 GMT -5
Casas has a 1.5 fWAR - which places his 13th in the AL. He plays a low-value position (i.e. not up-the-middle) and by the data this year (and the eye test) he's been middling to bad in the field. By metrics, he is the worst defender by far of all the top 15 candidate. His bWAR relative to the other players is not much different.
If you go by his offensive numbers alone, however, he's third behind Raley and Carpenter. Raley plays a much tougher position and his offensive performance puts him in rare company for a catcher. Henderson's also played a premium position, SS, for about half his games. Both are on playoff teams. That last fact often adds weight for voters. Finally, Henderson is a year younger than Casas, although I don't know if voters care (Luke Raley at age 28 makes just as compelling a story for an age-based weight, covering the "never stop trying/grinding" perspective.
I think Casas' only chance is if he hits 30 HRs or more. The media loves a round number. However, Henderson may get there before him. If anyone reaches or goes over 35 HRs, they're a virtual lock.
I have zero to base my opinion on except how much the modern media loves to spin narratives regardless of how they comport with the facts.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 3, 2023 11:59:55 GMT -5
If he goes scorching and ends with like .270-30-75 it will be awfully tough to deny! He will have to fight the "He's playing in nothing games while Henderson/Raley/Jung are on playoff teams" narrative. Also, both Henderson and Jung, who are better defensively at their positions, have the same current amount of HRs as Casas. |
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 8, 2023 21:12:31 GMT -5
Casas is up to 4th best odds for AL ROY (+2500) on Draftkings Now second at +750. A lot at stake between Triston and Gunnar this month deciding whether Boston or Baltimore gets an extra first rounder. I don't think the race is over yet. After I saw Gunnar's play in the hole on Story, I was ready to concede. Then he added a single, double and a triple. Congratulations on a great year. What we are hoping Mayer becomes. |
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