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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2023 15:57:01 GMT -5
This has been a historically bad team defensively. They are dead last in the majors by a landslide… Before thinking about a potent right handed bat, a top of the rotation starter, an innings eater starting pitcher You. Have. To. Fix. The. Damn. Catching. The. Ball. Thing. I don’t know how they’ll do it (maybe start with firing Febles and hire a new infield coach get Casas to train with Youk in winter, Ask Devers to stop training with Amed Rosario and get a new winter training program….) but it has to be the team top priority. And this may be the most perplexing component of all for those who celebrated the arrival of Mr. Bloom as someone who would architect "Tampa North - only with money." Above average to excellent defense is an absolute foundational component of the Rays' team-building philosophy. The book about the Rays written last decade ( The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri) and recent reporting on them repeatedly states that a big part of their formula is run prevention. In the starkest terms: they realized they could buy defense cheaply both in key position players and by using the "spaghetti method" of finding under-valued pitching (i.e. grab cast-offs with a certain profile and see which stick with slight tweaks to delivery and/or pitch selection). Beyond that they trade for or develop hitters good enough to compete at a high level and trade away or walk away from plays as soon as they look like they will fail to meet their proprietary metrics going forward (Hello Kulber!), they break, or they get too expensive*. *Too expensive for the Rays. Still affordable for 25 or so other teams.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 31, 2023 15:57:09 GMT -5
Agreed the Red Sox not having a star is a big problem on the field. That plus the negative sentiment around them and ownership's history of going for an occasional PR-ish-splash in these sort of moments is why I would not rule out Ohtani as an FA target. It’s obviously unlikely but Ohtani’s hitting profile is basically the ultimate form of what this front office seems to target—absolutely wallops the ball, tends to go to left field, has enough pull power to overcome Fenway’s deep right field. I genuinely think he’d flirt with a 200 wRC+ if he came here. Plus, he’s had to deal with a media circus for basically his entire life, so I doubt he’d be fazed by the Boston media. The UCL injury adds an interesting wrinkle to his market—I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a fairly unique contract with a manageable base salary and significant bonuses for innings and plate appearances. I think ownership would be willing to take the risk given the revenue-generation potential. With how clearly they’ve targeted this year as the year to duck the tax, I think the FO is prepared to try something big, too—with the young talent starting to make the majors and all the bad money coming off the books, they’re in a good position to make a run for Ohtani this offseason or Soto next.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2023 16:02:53 GMT -5
Boston: 9th in the AL in Batting fWAR at 14.2 9th in the AL in Pitching fWAR at 11.0 15th in the AL in Defense at -54.5 Every team ahead of them in the AL is in the playoffs (BAL, MN, SEA, TX, HOU, TB) or still in the hunt (TOR), plus LAA in Batting and CLEV in Pitching. In all of MLB they are 18th in batting, 20th in pitching and dead last in defense. If this isn't the definition of mediocre/mid in comparison to their peers, I don't know what is. It also speaks to a significant deficit in roster construction/philosophy. Isn’t the terrible defense taken into account in Fangraphs batting WAR? If you want to rank the offense I feel like team wOBA or wRC+ is a much better metric—they’re fifth in MLB in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. I’m guessing they get dinged pretty hard for playing in Fenway as far as wRC+ is concerned—that’s fair, but this lineup is pretty built for Fenway so I’m pretty okay with the lineup construction. It’s a good offense. They’ve been on par (or maybe a tick better) with the Orioles at the plate this year. On the base paths and in the field is a different story. Sox are 4th in AL in runs scored, but 9th in runs allowed. Say what you want about offense, but the guys producing those runs are the same ones giving them up on defense.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2023 16:08:12 GMT -5
Agreed the Red Sox not having a star is a big problem on the field. That plus the negative sentiment around them and ownership's history of going for an occasional PR-ish-splash in these sort of moments is why I would not rule out Ohtani as an FA target. It’s obviously unlikely but Ohtani’s hitting profile is basically the ultimate form of what this front office seems to target—absolutely wallops the ball, tends to go to left field, has enough pull power to overcome Fenway’s deep right field. I genuinely think he’d flirt with a 200 wRC+ if he came here. Plus, he’s had to deal with a media circus for basically his entire life, so I doubt he’d be phased by the Boston media. The UCL injury adds an interesting wrinkle to his market—I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a fairly unique contract with a manageable base salary and significant bonuses for innings and plate appearances. I think ownership would be willing to take the risk given the revenue-generation potential. With how clearly they’ve targeted this year as the year to duck the tax, I think the FO is prepared to try something big, too—with the young talent starting to make the majors and all the bad money coming off the books, they’re in a good position to make a run for Ohtani this offseason or Soto next. Profiles aside, why would he sign with Boston? Even if they somehow offered the most money? They guy walked away from more money than he made here in the last few years by asking to be posted early when he was in Japan. So, being paid the most may not be a top priority. He has stated, however, that his top priority is signing with a team that regularly makes the playoffs. We can talk about windows and potential and plans and missing pieces all we want, but to non-biased outside observers - especially those with relatively short professional careers - the Red Sox are not a playoff team. Like, at all.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 31, 2023 16:20:40 GMT -5
Some outfield alignments I'd be good with (in no order): 1) Duran/Rafaela/Duvall, Yoshida DH, trade Verdugo, Abreu on the bench since now we have two righties in the OF 2) Yoshida/Rafaela/Verdugo, Turner DH, trade Duran3) Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo, trade or DH Yoshida 4) Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo, Turner DH, run it back, maybe you QO Duvall here I think he pretty much has to come back and you figure it out 5) Duvall/Duran/Verdugo, trade or DH Yoshida I think I prefer to get Rafaela in center because having good defense would be really nice. Whether they put Yoshida at DH or trade him and resign Turner I'm pretty neutral on. I don't mind a Duran trade because he should be worth a lot and he might have some regression coming, but prefer to keep him. Lot of ways to slice it up, but I think the three OFs for 2024 are already in the org even if they do trade a guy or let Duvall go. I get what you're doing here with risk mitigation and trying to plug holes, but Verdugo is your team leader in fWAR at 2.5 and the only outfielder with a plus defensive rating 1.8 (Duvall -1.7, Duran -3.1, Yoshida -14.9, Refsnyder - 2.4). Duran is tied for third in fWAR at 2.3 even though he's not played since the NYY series and only had 362 PAs this year. btw, to show how truly mediocre this team is, your leading pitcher by fWAR is...Chris Sale, with all of 77 innings. Selling low on Yoshida seems like a bad move all around. I'd give him one more year, but the suggestion speaks to some of the significant flaws in this roster construction - at least six of the starters have negative fielding abilities. While there's a lot of noise in defensive stats and you can get away with slightly negative players (say, around -3.5 or so) in a few positions, when your first baseman is at -15.6 and your third baseman is at -6.1 and your left fielder is -14.9, well, the offense can only make up for so much, especially when the combined fWAR for every pitcher the team ran out there this year is at 11.0 fWAR. We can talk about injuries, but every team has that excuse. Duran and Duvall would have better defensive metrics at a corner than at CF, though, and Rafaela would likely be elite in CF. Duran/Rafaela/Duvall would probably be a very good defensive outfield.
And FWIW Yoshida's defensive value on Fangraphs is going to take an automatic hit because of how many games he's played at DH, so it's not the greatest metric for capturing how he's doing in LF. With that said, all of the metrics I would use, and the eye test, say he's been very bad over there. I am taking defensive metrics in Fenway's LF with a bit more of a grain of salt nowadays, but I don't think there's any way to argue that Yoshida has been anything other than bad.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 31, 2023 16:23:05 GMT -5
Isn’t the terrible defense taken into account in Fangraphs batting WAR? If you want to rank the offense I feel like team wOBA or wRC+ is a much better metric—they’re fifth in MLB in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. I’m guessing they get dinged pretty hard for playing in Fenway as far as wRC+ is concerned—that’s fair, but this lineup is pretty built for Fenway so I’m pretty okay with the lineup construction. It’s a good offense. They’ve been on par (or maybe a tick better) with the Orioles at the plate this year. On the base paths and in the field is a different story. Sox are 4th in AL in runs scored, but 9th in runs allowed. Say what you want about offense, but the guys producing those runs are the same ones giving them up on defense. For sure, but I think they’ve already made some progress on improving there. Kiké to Story at short is probably what, +20 runs over a full season? Plus Rafaela in the outfield. I’m not too worried about Casas’s defense yet, it’s fairly common for young first basemen to struggle on that side of the ball. He seems to have the work ethic to improve, at least. The big one to worry about is Devers for me—there’s clearly a solid defensive third baseman in there, he makes a lot of really excellent plays, but the lack of focus on routine plays really is tough to watch sometimes. Those guys have room to grow, but it remains to be seen if it actually happens. Wong not being a very good framer is hurting them quite a bit—he’s at -7 runs from framing, which is wiping out most of his defensive value. And Yoshida is pretty clearly below average, but I don’t think he’s the butcher the advanced metrics make him out to be—that sort of defensive profile is most susceptible to Fenway funkiness given how many routine fly outs the Monster messes with. Like Casas, hoping that a year of major league experience helps him get more accustomed to playing defense in MLB.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 31, 2023 16:50:58 GMT -5
It’s obviously unlikely but Ohtani’s hitting profile is basically the ultimate form of what this front office seems to target—absolutely wallops the ball, tends to go to left field, has enough pull power to overcome Fenway’s deep right field. I genuinely think he’d flirt with a 200 wRC+ if he came here. Plus, he’s had to deal with a media circus for basically his entire life, so I doubt he’d be phased by the Boston media. The UCL injury adds an interesting wrinkle to his market—I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a fairly unique contract with a manageable base salary and significant bonuses for innings and plate appearances. I think ownership would be willing to take the risk given the revenue-generation potential. With how clearly they’ve targeted this year as the year to duck the tax, I think the FO is prepared to try something big, too—with the young talent starting to make the majors and all the bad money coming off the books, they’re in a good position to make a run for Ohtani this offseason or Soto next. Profiles aside, why would he sign with Boston? Even if they somehow offered the most money? They guy walked away from more money than he made here in the last few years by asking to be posted early when he was in Japan. So, being paid the most may not be a top priority. He has stated, however, that his top priority is signing with a team that regularly makes the playoffs. We can talk about windows and potential and plans and missing pieces all we want, but to non-biased outside observers - especially those with relatively short professional careers - the Red Sox are not a playoff team. Like, at all. Hopefully my timing will be better here and we won’t be having parallel conversations for too much longer—apologies to the viewers at home—but I think the Red Sox are quite a bit closer to being a playoff team than you’re giving them credit for. There really aren’t that many teams that can afford him, and a good number of them aren’t any closer to being a playoff team than the Red Sox. The Dodgers should be the favorites, but they’re going to have a busy offseason in their own right—they’ll have a lot of holes to fill and they haven’t been able to duck the tax in a while, so I’m not sure it makes sense for them to put all their eggs in the Ohtani basket given those two things. I don’t really see anyone else who looks like a clean fit—maybe the Mariners, but are they gonna commit that kind of money as their young pitchers start to enter their arb years? The Braves will need to resign Acuña eventually, and a big part of their success has been down to keeping their salary structure intact as they lock their young guys up. Are they really gonna want the rest of the Ohtani deal on the books when Acuña’s contract expires? I’m not sure. Like I said, I don’t think it’s likely, but I think the front office could make a pretty good case that the reason the Red Sox haven’t been a playoff team lately is because they’ve chosen to bite the bullet and start doing all the little things the Angels have never done, even if it meant a few down years. And I think a big part of that case would come down to saying “we’ve cleared the deck to add a player like you, and we’ve waited to do it until we felt confident we could field a good team around you.”
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2023 17:11:28 GMT -5
Profiles aside, why would he sign with Boston? Even if they somehow offered the most money? They guy walked away from more money than he made here in the last few years by asking to be posted early when he was in Japan. So, being paid the most may not be a top priority. He has stated, however, that his top priority is signing with a team that regularly makes the playoffs. We can talk about windows and potential and plans and missing pieces all we want, but to non-biased outside observers - especially those with relatively short professional careers - the Red Sox are not a playoff team. Like, at all. Hopefully my timing will be better here and we won’t be having parallel conversations for too much longer—apologies to the viewers at home—but I think the Red Sox are quite a bit closer to being a playoff team than you’re giving them credit for. There really aren’t that many teams that can afford him, and a good number of them aren’t any closer to being a playoff team than the Red Sox. The Dodgers should be the favorites, but they’re going to have a busy offseason in their own right—they’ll have a lot of holes to fill and they haven’t been able to duck the tax in a while, so I’m not sure it makes sense for them to put all their eggs in the Ohtani basket given those two things. I don’t really see anyone else who looks like a clean fit—maybe the Mariners, but are they gonna commit that kind of money as their young pitchers start to enter their arb years? The Braves will need to resign Acuña eventually, and a big part of their success has been down to keeping their salary structure intact as they lock their young guys up. Are they really gonna want the rest of the Ohtani deal on the books when Acuña’s contract expires? I’m not sure. Like I said, I don’t think it’s likely, but I think the front office could make a pretty good case that the reason the Red Sox haven’t been a playoff team lately is because they’ve chosen to bite the bullet and start doing all the little things the Angels have never done, even if it meant a few down years. And I think a big part of that case would come down to saying “we’ve cleared the deck to add a player like you, and we’ve waited to do it until we felt confident we could field a good team around you.” "We're almost as good as you want and with you we'll be that good!" is not the pitch to win a sale. It leaves a very small margin for error. And it's a tough pitch next to: "We've made the playoffs virtually every year since 2012...or "four out of the last five years" or even "the last two years in a row." Also, every team is owned by billionaires, groups of billionaires or billion dollar corporations, so, technically, all of them can afford him, but I get your point. My guess is the contenders are in rough order Dodgers Mariners Giants Yankees Rangers Astros Braves Phillies (only because their owner is all in right now) And from the "We're almost as good as you want!" bin: Mets Red Sox Cubs Best fit of all is probably Baltimore with their young core, ballyard and DC metro market, but their owner makes Steve Fisher look like Steve Cohen. Anyway, that's pretty stiff competition. And if he really is looking for an established or emerging playoff team, it's probably LAD, Astros, Braves, Mariners and Rangers in that rough order. I would love it if he came to Boston, but I think there's a less than 3% chance that happens given them missing the playoffs four out of the last five years, and the last two years in a row.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 31, 2023 17:30:36 GMT -5
It’s obviously unlikely but Ohtani’s hitting profile is basically the ultimate form of what this front office seems to target—absolutely wallops the ball, tends to go to left field, has enough pull power to overcome Fenway’s deep right field. I genuinely think he’d flirt with a 200 wRC+ if he came here. Plus, he’s had to deal with a media circus for basically his entire life, so I doubt he’d be phased by the Boston media. The UCL injury adds an interesting wrinkle to his market—I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a fairly unique contract with a manageable base salary and significant bonuses for innings and plate appearances. I think ownership would be willing to take the risk given the revenue-generation potential. With how clearly they’ve targeted this year as the year to duck the tax, I think the FO is prepared to try something big, too—with the young talent starting to make the majors and all the bad money coming off the books, they’re in a good position to make a run for Ohtani this offseason or Soto next. Profiles aside, why would he sign with Boston? Even if they somehow offered the most money? They guy walked away from more money than he made here in the last few years by asking to be posted early when he was in Japan. So, being paid the most may not be a top priority. He has stated, however, that his top priority is signing with a team that regularly makes the playoffs. We can talk about windows and potential and plans and missing pieces all we want, but to non-biased outside observers - especially those with relatively short professional careers - the Red Sox are not a playoff team. Like, at all. Money, history of the franchise / branding, very reasonable case that he could be the hero and take a storied franchise back to the playoffs after two seasons off, Japanese teammate. He's also never explicitly said what you just stated he did. Also Ohtani was in MLB in 2018 when the Red Sox won the World Series and 2021 when they went to the ALCS so it's not like he's unfamiliar with the concept of them being good. Most likely he's going to the Dodgers but there ya go, reasons why he might pick Boston
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Aug 31, 2023 17:33:08 GMT -5
I mean he originally signed with a team that was 74-88 (2016) and 80-82 (2017) in the two seasons prior. Of course he wants to win, but I’m not sure he’d prioritize 2023 W-L records when he could just as easily vault any team on the fringes into the playoffs anyhow. Oh yeah, and he’d make a literal boatload of money no matter where he goes.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 31, 2023 17:36:09 GMT -5
Hopefully my timing will be better here and we won’t be having parallel conversations for too much longer—apologies to the viewers at home—but I think the Red Sox are quite a bit closer to being a playoff team than you’re giving them credit for. There really aren’t that many teams that can afford him, and a good number of them aren’t any closer to being a playoff team than the Red Sox. The Dodgers should be the favorites, but they’re going to have a busy offseason in their own right—they’ll have a lot of holes to fill and they haven’t been able to duck the tax in a while, so I’m not sure it makes sense for them to put all their eggs in the Ohtani basket given those two things. I don’t really see anyone else who looks like a clean fit—maybe the Mariners, but are they gonna commit that kind of money as their young pitchers start to enter their arb years? The Braves will need to resign Acuña eventually, and a big part of their success has been down to keeping their salary structure intact as they lock their young guys up. Are they really gonna want the rest of the Ohtani deal on the books when Acuña’s contract expires? I’m not sure. Like I said, I don’t think it’s likely, but I think the front office could make a pretty good case that the reason the Red Sox haven’t been a playoff team lately is because they’ve chosen to bite the bullet and start doing all the little things the Angels have never done, even if it meant a few down years. And I think a big part of that case would come down to saying “we’ve cleared the deck to add a player like you, and we’ve waited to do it until we felt confident we could field a good team around you.” "We're almost as good as you want and with you we'll be that good!" is not the pitch to win a sale. It leaves a very small margin for error. And it's a tough pitch next to: "We've made the playoffs virtually every year since 2012...or "four out of the last five years" or even "the last two years in a row." Also, every team is owned by billionaires, groups of billionaires or billion dollar corporations, so, technically, all of them can afford him, but I get your point. My guess is the contenders are in rough order Dodgers Mariners Giants Yankees Rangers Astros Braves Phillies (only because their owner is all in right now) And from the "We're almost as good as you want!" bin: Mets Red Sox Cubs Best fit of all is probably Baltimore with their young core, ballyard and DC metro market, but their owner makes Steve Fisher look like Steve Cohen. Anyway, that's pretty stiff competition. And if he really is looking for an established or emerging playoff team, it's probably LAD, Astros, Braves, Mariners and Rangers in that rough order. I would love it if he came to Boston, but I think there's a less than 3% chance that happens given them missing the playoffs four out of the last five years, and the last two years in a row. Nitpicking here but don't buy that the Giants are in a separate tier than the Red Sox and Cubs. I actually think all three are in a really similar position: historic franchises in big markets that love baseball with teams that have been very mid the last two seasons.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 31, 2023 17:37:28 GMT -5
Hopefully my timing will be better here and we won’t be having parallel conversations for too much longer—apologies to the viewers at home—but I think the Red Sox are quite a bit closer to being a playoff team than you’re giving them credit for. There really aren’t that many teams that can afford him, and a good number of them aren’t any closer to being a playoff team than the Red Sox. The Dodgers should be the favorites, but they’re going to have a busy offseason in their own right—they’ll have a lot of holes to fill and they haven’t been able to duck the tax in a while, so I’m not sure it makes sense for them to put all their eggs in the Ohtani basket given those two things. I don’t really see anyone else who looks like a clean fit—maybe the Mariners, but are they gonna commit that kind of money as their young pitchers start to enter their arb years? The Braves will need to resign Acuña eventually, and a big part of their success has been down to keeping their salary structure intact as they lock their young guys up. Are they really gonna want the rest of the Ohtani deal on the books when Acuña’s contract expires? I’m not sure. Like I said, I don’t think it’s likely, but I think the front office could make a pretty good case that the reason the Red Sox haven’t been a playoff team lately is because they’ve chosen to bite the bullet and start doing all the little things the Angels have never done, even if it meant a few down years. And I think a big part of that case would come down to saying “we’ve cleared the deck to add a player like you, and we’ve waited to do it until we felt confident we could field a good team around you.” "We're almost as good as you want and with you we'll be that good!" is not the pitch to win a sale. It leaves a very small margin for error. And it's a tough pitch next to: "We've made the playoffs virtually every year since 2012...or "four out of the last five years" or even "the last two years in a row." Also, every team is owned by billionaires, groups of billionaires or billion dollar corporations, so, technically, all of them can afford him, but I get your point. My guess is the contenders are in rough order Dodgers Mariners Giants Yankees Rangers Astros Braves Phillies (only because their owner is all in right now) And from the "We're almost as good as you want!" bin: Mets Red Sox Cubs Best fit of all is probably Baltimore with their young core, ballyard and DC metro market, but their owner makes Steve Fisher look like Steve Cohen. Anyway, that's pretty stiff competition. And if he really is looking for an established or emerging playoff team, it's probably LAD, Astros, Braves, Mariners and Rangers in that rough order. I would love it if he came to Boston, but I think there's a less than 3% chance that happens given them missing the playoffs four out of the last five years, and the last two years in a row. The Rangers already have a ton of big contracts on the books, though they’ve done a solid job managing term so it’s possible. The Giants are no better than the Red Sox this year—half a game ahead with a much worse run differential. The Yankees are a far bigger mess than the Red Sox right now, so not sure why they’re on the contender list. The Phillies are pretty maxed out payroll-wise already, too. I don’t see the Braves going for him just based on their current roster construction and organizational philosophy. The Astros don’t feel like a fit with Alvarez locked up until 2028. Like you said, under a different ownership group the O’s might make sense, but not with the one they have. We’re in agreement that the chances aren’t high, but I do think the Red Sox are better-positioned than most of the teams you’ve named to add a big contract without compromising the core of the team or getting into uncharted waters payroll-wise. The former is important because the sales pitch is going to be based around the next five years, not the last five, and I think this front office has done a good job laying a solid, sustainable foundation for those coming years. The latter is important because, well, it’s gonna take a lot of money to sign him and even Steve Cohen has his limits.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,448
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Post by radiohix on Aug 31, 2023 17:55:03 GMT -5
Re: Defense Another aspect that went unnoticed in my opinion is the pitch framing by our catchers. Wong has been mediocre in that regard and McGuire can’t be confused for a Molina. So we’re basically costing our pitchers extra pitches by not getting the borderline strikes and by not turning the easy grounders into outs and double plays. Yasmani on 1 year deal and move McGuire ?
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 31, 2023 18:05:18 GMT -5
Re: Defense Another aspect that went unnoticed in my opinion is the pitch framing by our catchers. Wong has been mediocre in that regard and McGuire can’t be confused for a Molina. So we’re basically costing our pitchers extra pitches by not getting the borderline strikes and by not turning the easy grounders into outs and double plays. Yasmani on 1 year deal and move McGuire ? Yeah, really hard to overstate how much harder the defense has made things on the pitchers this year. I know FIP and xERA are supposed to take defense out of the equation, but when you have a defense that consistently turns 15 pitch innings into 25 pitch ones, that’s going to drag those numbers down, too.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 31, 2023 20:12:57 GMT -5
I would much rather pass on Ohtani and just sign Soto next offseason. Since he will still be 26, walk rates will keep is value up for a while, will be cheaper (I think), and more fits our window, which really seems like 2025 in beyond as legit contenders
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 31, 2023 22:17:01 GMT -5
I would much rather pass on Ohtani and just sign Soto next offseason. Since he will still be 26, walk rates will keep is value up for a while, will be cheaper (I think), and more fits our window, which really seems like 2025 in beyond as legit contenders I didn’t want to get too off topic but yeah, I feel like they’re gonna make an effort to get at least one of them. Soto doesn’t quiiiite have as nice a batted ball profile as Ohtani but the plate discipline and age make up for it.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,947
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2023 5:07:44 GMT -5
Boston: 9th in the AL in Batting fWAR at 14.2 9th in the AL in Pitching fWAR at 11.0 15th in the AL in Defense at -54.5 Every team ahead of them in the AL is in the playoffs (BAL, MN, SEA, TX, HOU, TB) or still in the hunt (TOR), plus LAA in Batting and CLEV in Pitching. In all of MLB they are 18th in batting, 20th in pitching and dead last in defense. If this isn't the definition of mediocre/mid in comparison to their peers, I don't know what is. It also speaks to a significant deficit in roster construction/philosophy. Yeah,as chaimtine pointed out, let's double-count the awful defense by including it in the batting metric. And let's use an outdated piece of crap for the pitching metric.
I mean, wouldn't the team be below .500 if they were really 9th out of 15 in both batting and pitching?
By xwOBA they rank 7th in both batting and pitching, and the former is very likely 6th when adjusting for SOS.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 1, 2023 7:40:09 GMT -5
Boston: 9th in the AL in Batting fWAR at 14.2 9th in the AL in Pitching fWAR at 11.0 15th in the AL in Defense at -54.5 Every team ahead of them in the AL is in the playoffs (BAL, MN, SEA, TX, HOU, TB) or still in the hunt (TOR), plus LAA in Batting and CLEV in Pitching. In all of MLB they are 18th in batting, 20th in pitching and dead last in defense. If this isn't the definition of mediocre/mid in comparison to their peers, I don't know what is. It also speaks to a significant deficit in roster construction/philosophy. Yeah,as chaimtine pointed out, let's double-count the awful defense by including it in the batting metric. And let's use an outdated piece of crap for the pitching metric.
I mean, wouldn't the team be below .500 if they were really 9th out of 15 in both batting and pitching?
By xwOBA they rank 7th in both batting and pitching, and the former is very likely 6th when adjusting for SOS.
After early opponents like PIT and LAA fell well below .500 later on, does that mean that in hindsight, the Red Sox actually weren’t playing the most difficult schedule in MLB across the first quarter of the season? If we are going to lean heavily on SOS to argue why a team is better than its record, don’t we have to acknowledge that SOS may suggest both a team and its opponents are better than they actually are? And there are lots of things SOS can’t account for - April TB and TB right now, without Wander and McLanahan among others, are the same team?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 8:21:20 GMT -5
Boston: 9th in the AL in Batting fWAR at 14.2 9th in the AL in Pitching fWAR at 11.0 15th in the AL in Defense at -54.5 Every team ahead of them in the AL is in the playoffs (BAL, MN, SEA, TX, HOU, TB) or still in the hunt (TOR), plus LAA in Batting and CLEV in Pitching. In all of MLB they are 18th in batting, 20th in pitching and dead last in defense. If this isn't the definition of mediocre/mid in comparison to their peers, I don't know what is. It also speaks to a significant deficit in roster construction/philosophy. Yeah,as chaimtine pointed out, let's double-count the awful defense by including it in the batting metric. And let's use an outdated piece of crap for the pitching metric.
I mean, wouldn't the team be below .500 if they were really 9th out of 15 in both batting and pitching?
By xwOBA they rank 7th in both batting and pitching, and the former is very likely 6th when adjusting for SOS.
Would you *automatically* be below .500 in that case? You might get lucky and put together a 1-0 win (bad offense) then a 7-6 win (bad pitching), then lose a bad game like 7-0 — average out to not so good in either, and be 2-1. If your losses are terrible, you could have bad numbers and an ok record. But more importantly… they are *barely* over .500. The luck factor to beat those rankings would have to be that high.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 1, 2023 8:32:47 GMT -5
ESPN's RPI has them 12th in MLB with a .508 winning percent, Pythag has them 13th with a .521, their actual record is .515. They've been almost exactly neutral in clutch time. No matter how you slice it they've overall been extremely middling or just slightly better than that I don't think we have to dress that up or make it sound worse than it is (like by double counting defense).
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Sept 1, 2023 8:44:15 GMT -5
ESPN's RPI has them 12th with a .508 winning percent, Pythag has them 13th with a .521, their actual record is .515. They've been almost exactly neutral in clutch time. No matter how you slice it they've overall been extremely middling or just slightly better than that I don't think we have to dress that up or make it sound worse than it is (like by double counting defense). They're also 12th in SRS. I'm pretty sure they're about the 12th best team in the league.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 1, 2023 10:12:58 GMT -5
Boston: 9th in the AL in Batting fWAR at 14.2 9th in the AL in Pitching fWAR at 11.0 15th in the AL in Defense at -54.5 Every team ahead of them in the AL is in the playoffs (BAL, MN, SEA, TX, HOU, TB) or still in the hunt (TOR), plus LAA in Batting and CLEV in Pitching. In all of MLB they are 18th in batting, 20th in pitching and dead last in defense. If this isn't the definition of mediocre/mid in comparison to their peers, I don't know what is. It also speaks to a significant deficit in roster construction/philosophy. Yeah,as chaimtine pointed out, let's double-count the awful defense by including it in the batting metric. And let's use an outdated piece of crap for the pitching metric.
I mean, wouldn't the team be below .500 if they were really 9th out of 15 in both batting and pitching? By xwOBA they rank 7th in both batting and pitching, and the former is very likely 6th when adjusting for SOS.
So the noise between xwOBA and their record is...?
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 1, 2023 10:17:30 GMT -5
Yeah,as chaimtine pointed out, let's double-count the awful defense by including it in the batting metric. And let's use an outdated piece of crap for the pitching metric.
I mean, wouldn't the team be below .500 if they were really 9th out of 15 in both batting and pitching? By xwOBA they rank 7th in both batting and pitching, and the former is very likely 6th when adjusting for SOS.
So the noise between xwOBA and their record is...? Non existent they are 7th in the AL in record
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Post by Guidas on Sept 1, 2023 10:56:18 GMT -5
So the noise between xwOBA and their record is...? Non existent they are 7th in the AL in record I mean between 7 and the 6 re: SOS, but fair enough.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 1, 2023 11:03:18 GMT -5
ESPN's RPI has them 12th in MLB with a .508 winning percent, Pythag has them 13th with a .521, their actual record is .515. They've been almost exactly neutral in clutch time. No matter how you slice it they've overall been extremely middling or just slightly better than that I don't think we have to dress that up or make it sound worse than it is (like by double counting defense). And this is the definitive point. It's not like they're SD and grossly underperformed their pythag. They're mediocre. They were mediocre in 2019, 2022 and now - barring a miracle of a win streak or a complete collapse — 2023. 2020 should just be tossed out (and we thank you for the draft pick), but even if you keep it, then that year and 2021 are outliers.
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