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2024 Free Agency
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 17, 2023 10:53:48 GMT -5
I'm interested in Nola especially if his somewhat down year depresses his market a little. He'll still get a big contract, but he's a consistently solid pitcher with 5+ fWAR upside who relies more on command and spin than big velocity to get the job done, so he could age better than most.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 17, 2023 10:59:23 GMT -5
Snell Montgomery Paxton Sale Bello in any order is fine with me. We reset the luxury tax. This is the year to give up the draft pick the minor league system looks amazing. In the same tier as a Snell and Montgomery (one top guy and one mid guy) I'd say the ideal outcome would be Yamamoto and Sonny Gray. Sonny wouldn't cost a lot and would be pretty effective. A rotation of Yamamoto, Sale, Bello, Paxton, Gray would be (in Larry David voice) Prettttayyy prettttayyyy prettay good. Also allows you to have oodles of depth in the rotation and bullpen. It might be a bit unfair to point to several years later but I have no interest in Sonny Gray after his results for the Yankees. He was awful and I just don't want to see him starting for the Sox in the AL East. Some guys just can't hack it in this division for whatever reason. No thanks.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 17, 2023 11:22:56 GMT -5
In the same tier as a Snell and Montgomery (one top guy and one mid guy) I'd say the ideal outcome would be Yamamoto and Sonny Gray. Sonny wouldn't cost a lot and would be pretty effective. A rotation of Yamamoto, Sale, Bello, Paxton, Gray would be (in Larry David voice) Prettttayyy prettttayyyy prettay good. Also allows you to have oodles of depth in the rotation and bullpen. It might be a bit unfair to point to several years later but I have no interest in Sonny Gray after his results for the Yankees. He was awful and I just don't want to see him starting for the Sox in the AL East. Some guys just can't hack it in this division for whatever reason. No thanks. i think his struggles that year were overstated. His xfip was 0.43 runs higher than his career number and his BABIP that year was .326. I get he's not a sexy pick, but if we could sign him as a 4/5 starter to a 2 yr deal with team option, I'd be perfectly happy with that. Signing him and Yamamoto together would be a pretty good outcome
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 17, 2023 11:29:09 GMT -5
It might be a bit unfair to point to several years later but I have no interest in Sonny Gray after his results for the Yankees. He was awful and I just don't want to see him starting for the Sox in the AL East. Some guys just can't hack it in this division for whatever reason. No thanks. i think his struggles that year were overstated. His xfip was 0.43 runs higher than his career number and his BABIP that year was .326. I get he's not a sexy pick, but if we could sign him as a 4/5 starter to a 2 yr deal with team option, I'd be perfectly happy with that. Signing him and Yamamoto together would be a pretty good outcome Perhaps and I do recall after he left when he was doing well again in Cincinnati he discussed that the Yankees had him change up his pitch mix which he said he wasn't comfortable with or something along those lines so maybe he'd do better in his 2nd stint in the AL East but I still think he's pretty low on my list of FA SP options.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 17, 2023 12:33:00 GMT -5
With Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford (not to mention Murphy, Walter and Drohan) under team control for 3+ years and Pivetta still around - why would the Red Sox be looking for a 4/5 starter?
The team has money to spend and very few holes. Shouldn't be shopping in the mid-tier for pitching this offseason.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 17, 2023 12:41:08 GMT -5
i think his struggles that year were overstated. His xfip was 0.43 runs higher than his career number and his BABIP that year was .326. I get he's not a sexy pick, but if we could sign him as a 4/5 starter to a 2 yr deal with team option, I'd be perfectly happy with that. Signing him and Yamamoto together would be a pretty good outcome Perhaps and I do recall after he left when he was doing well again in Cincinnati he discussed that the Yankees had him change up his pitch mix which he said he wasn't comfortable with or something along those lines so maybe he'd do better in his 2nd stint in the AL East but I still think he's pretty low on my list of FA SP options. yea, obviously it would come down to cost. I guess my thought was we could maybe even sign him to the chaim special of 1 yr + team option. If the options were gray for 1 yr + 1 or Montgomery for a 3/4 year deal, I'd take gray 10/10 times
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Post by kwodes on Aug 17, 2023 12:43:54 GMT -5
With Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford (not to mention Murphy, Walter and Drohan) under team control for 3+ years and Pivetta still around - why would the Red Sox be looking for a 4/5 starter? The team has money to spend and very few holes. Shouldn't be shopping in the mid-tier for pitching this offseason. 4/5 with a 2/3 ceiling. You could sign him and Yamamoto which would allow you to move whitlock/kutter/Houck/pivetta (doesn't matter which) to the bullpen which, in turn, strengthens that. I'd like to sign a reliable pitcher with decent upside in order to strengthen the rotation AND bullpen. Or you can trade from that depth to improve the lineup.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 17, 2023 12:49:10 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is 4th in MLB in fWAR and 5th in bWAR. He's not a 4/5 and he's also not taking a 1 year deal with a team option.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 13:00:54 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is.. meh.
His fWAR is definitely solid, but he's not dynamic, and he's been quite blasé since his incredible April. I feel like he's one of those guys whose numbers (standard/advanced) are vastly better than the player you watch pitch on the mound. Not saying his value to a team is not significant, I just don't see him as the type of guy who would succeed in Boston.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 17, 2023 14:09:16 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is 4th in MLB in fWAR and 5th in bWAR. He's not a 4/5 and he's also not taking a 1 year deal with a team option. wow, didn't even realize he was doing THAT well. I knew he started out really hot and has just been "good" since.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 17, 2023 21:10:39 GMT -5
Yamamoto's stuff is absolutely gross. Plus fastball. Plus plus splitter. Plus plus curveball. I wouldn't care if they spent 275-300 million to get this guy. First time I've seen him. That looks like a pretty high effort delivery to me. My shoulder is sore just watching him. I think he'd scare me more than most young pitchers on a big money 5-7 year contract. For those also interested in mechanics: Looking at it in slow motion, his arm is a maybe little late (with good scap retraction and hip/shoulder separation, which is probably how he gets the velocity), but his elbow stays low and he doesn’t do the inverted W/V thing anywhere near as badly as a Mark Prior, where there is an incredible amount of tension in the shoulder and rotator cuff/TOS problems are much more likely. They are not the cleanest mechanics I’ve ever seen, especially in the shoulder loading, but also not horrible. He also looks like he has a very strong lower half and uses it well with a drop and drive style delivery. If I had to guess, I would put him at a 6-6.5 on the Greg Maddux to Mark Prior injury scale.
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Post by soxaddict on Aug 17, 2023 22:38:11 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is 4th in MLB in fWAR and 5th in bWAR. He's not a 4/5 and he's also not taking a 1 year deal with a team option. I'm baffled who would consider Gray to be a 4/5? He'd easily been the ACE of the Red Sox three out of the last four years. He'll be 34, so probably a three year deal. Nola would be my #1 choice, but I'd be stoked with Sonny Gray.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 17, 2023 22:47:04 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is 4th in MLB in fWAR and 5th in bWAR. He's not a 4/5 and he's also not taking a 1 year deal with a team option. I'm baffled who would consider Gray to be a 4/5? He'd easily been the ACE of the Red Sox three out of the last four years. He'll be 34, so probably a three year deal. Nola would be my #1 choice, but I'd be stoked with Sonny Gray. I know, I know… wins don’t matter as a stat. But Gray has started 74 games in the last 3 years and has 21 wins. I say that not because it has to do with him… it is just amazing how the win has dried up. Forget future 300 game winners… are there going to be many future 150 game winners?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 17, 2023 22:51:57 GMT -5
I'm baffled who would consider Gray to be a 4/5? He'd easily been the ACE of the Red Sox three out of the last four years. He'll be 34, so probably a three year deal. Nola would be my #1 choice, but I'd be stoked with Sonny Gray. I know, I know… wins don’t matter as a stat. But Gray has started 74 games in the last 3 years and has 21 wins. I say that not because it has to do with him… it is just amazing how the win has dried up. Forget future 300 game winners… are there going to be many future 150 game winners? With the way arms are exploding and the shortening of SP workloads you’re not gonna see many 150 game winners at all imo- 10 seasons of 15 wins just doesn’t seem like something that will happen all that often anymore I’d venture to say 300 will never happen again
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 17, 2023 23:36:13 GMT -5
I know, I know… wins don’t matter as a stat. But Gray has started 74 games in the last 3 years and has 21 wins. I say that not because it has to do with him… it is just amazing how the win has dried up. Forget future 300 game winners… are there going to be many future 150 game winners? With the way arms are exploding and the shortening of SP workloads you’re not gonna see many 150 game winners at all imo- 10 seasons of 15 wins just doesn’t seem like something that will happen all that often anymore I’d venture to say 300 will never happen again I think Verlander is the last guy with a chance.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2023 6:57:19 GMT -5
With the way arms are exploding and the shortening of SP workloads you’re not gonna see many 150 game winners at all imo- 10 seasons of 15 wins just doesn’t seem like something that will happen all that often anymore I’d venture to say 300 will never happen again I think Verlander is the last guy with a chance. Not much of a chance unfortunately but yes. I grew up in the 1980s where 300 game winners still roamed the earth and yeah afterwards there was Clemens, Maddux, and Johnson. I really cant stand the opener or five and fly and cant possibly navigate my way thru the lineup a 3rd time mentality. I realize the trending decline in starting pitcher innings certainly predates this era. Once 4 man rotations were prevalent, guys throwing 300 plus innings, guys expected to finish what they started. Then by the 80s it was five man rotations, starters looking to go 7 and league leaders hoing 225 - 250 innings, and the 20 fame winner one of the markers of league leading g excellence rather than commonplace. All while the LaRussa-ization of bullpens took place. It has evolved to the place we are at now where it's all about throwing as hard as you can for as long as you can, mainly twice around the order as the numbers show starters lose it thex3rd time around. Changing speeds and locations, aka pitching, has taken a backseat to the reliever mentality of high octane gas being thrown past the batter, aka bat dodging as Theo Epstein called it. So no more 20 game winners. 15 game winners are a rarity. Merely qualifying for an ERA title is considered being a workhorse these days. 200 wins is becoming what 300 wins once was. And I wonder when we get to the point its 9 pitchers for 9 innings. I'm kind of old school. I know pitching wins aren't a great analytical stat, but I miss it. I like how when starters were pitching the bug majority of the game they held more responsibility with the association of wins and losses for a particular game. Now they're kind of a footnote. There was nothing like a Pedro vs Clemens matchup or a Seaver vs Ryan battle, etc. Its lost a lot of that luster. I understand why, but I dont know if that's particularly good for the game. If like to see the trend reverse, starters being groomed to navigate thru the 3rd time around the order, to really utilize the art of pitching.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 18, 2023 7:55:30 GMT -5
I wouldn't want to go three years with Gray considering how he pitched in the East before. That said, he would certainly be the Sox ace day one. Definitely not a bottom of the rotation pitcher. He hasn't been one of those since he played with the Yankees. He was sneaky good in Cincinnati and now good with the Twins.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 18, 2023 7:57:19 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is 4th in MLB in fWAR and 5th in bWAR. He's not a 4/5 and he's also not taking a 1 year deal with a team option. He's going to make a healthy amount on the market.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 18, 2023 7:57:33 GMT -5
I think Verlander is the last guy with a chance. Not much of a chance unfortunately but yes. I grew up in the 1980s where 300 game winners still roamed the earth and yeah afterwards there was Clemens, Maddux, and Johnson. I really cant stand the opener or five and fly and cant possibly navigate my way thru the lineup a 3rd time mentality. I realize the trending decline in starting pitcher innings certainly predates this era. Once 4 man rotations were prevalent, guys throwing 300 plus innings, guys expected to finish what they started. Then by the 80s it was five man rotations, starters looking to go 7 and league leaders hoing 225 - 250 innings, and the 20 fame winner one of the markers of league leading g excellence rather than commonplace. All while the LaRussa-ization of bullpens took place. It has evolved to the place we are at now where it's all about throwing as hard as you can for as long as you can, mainly twice around the order as the numbers show starters lose it thex3rd time around. Changing speeds and locations, aka pitching, has taken a backseat to the reliever mentality of high octane gas being thrown past the batter, aka bat dodging as Theo Epstein called it. So no more 20 game winners. 15 game winners are a rarity. Merely qualifying for an ERA title is considered being a workhorse these days. 200 wins is becoming what 300 wins once was. And I wonder when we get to the point its 9 pitchers for 9 innings. I'm kind of old school. I know pitching wins aren't a great analytical stat, but I miss it. I like how when starters were pitching the bug majority of the game they held more responsibility with the association of wins and losses for a particular game. Now they're kind of a footnote. There was nothing like a Pedro vs Clemens matchup or a Seaver vs Ryan battle, etc. Its lost a lot of that luster. I understand why, but I dont know if that's particularly good for the game. If like to see the trend reverse, starters being groomed to navigate thru the 3rd time around the order, to really utilize the art of pitching. Totally agree. I can’t imagine the HOF ballot in 25 years. Pitchers may stop getting in.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 18, 2023 8:02:16 GMT -5
Sonny Gray is 4th in MLB in fWAR and 5th in bWAR. He's not a 4/5 and he's also not taking a 1 year deal with a team option. I'm baffled who would consider Gray to be a 4/5? He'd easily been the ACE of the Red Sox three out of the last four years. He'll be 34, so probably a three year deal. Nola would be my #1 choice, but I'd be stoked with Sonny Gray. I'm the one who 1st suggested him as a target and I'm a big fan of adding him, but a 34 yr old who has eclipsed 150 innings twice in the last 8 years definitely can not be relied on to be a 1/2. You're probably right that a 1+1 deal is a pipe dream, but the 1/2/3/4/5 label only matters the 1st time through and in the playoffs. Essentially, my point was I think he's a lower cost, high ceiling target who would be a fit. As long as we don't need to rely on him to be our "ace".
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Post by incandenza on Aug 18, 2023 10:51:26 GMT -5
A conundrum: what do you do when you're pretty good at every position... and that's not good enough?
I just posted in the gameday thread that the team has above average hitters available at every position but C, yet only a 103 wRC+ overall as a team. They need to get better, but how do you do that when you don't have any glaring weaknesses (combined with a very weak FA class)? In theory their in house options in the middle infield (Story, Urias/Reyes) can improve on some of the lousy production they got there from Kiké, Chang, et al. But you can't assume they won't have injuries next year and once again end up with those black holes in the lineup, if not at 2B and SS then at some other position. Meanwhile, they have to replace the above average production from Turner and Duvall just to tread water, and their only big league ready prospect is a glove-first centerfielder who can help overall but can't be counted on to improve the offense.
It all makes for a sneakily tricky situation, where they don't really have any holes - a good thing as far as it goes! - but that means that they don't have any obvious ways to improve either. In fact, I can think of only one potential free agent who would obviously improve the lineup, and he's going to cost like $500 million.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 18, 2023 11:21:31 GMT -5
A conundrum: what do you do when you're pretty good at every position... and that's not good enough?
I just posted in the gameday thread that the team has above average hitters available at every position but C, yet only a 103 wRC+ overall as a team. They need to get better, but how do you do that when you don't have any glaring weaknesses (combined with a very weak FA class)? In theory their in house options in the middle infield (Story, Urias/Reyes) can improve on some of the lousy production they got there from Kiké, Chang, et al. But you can't assume they won't have injuries next year and once again end up with those black holes in the lineup, if not at 2B and SS then at some other position. Meanwhile, they have to replace the above average production from Turner and Duvall just to tread water, and their only big league ready prospect is a glove-first centerfielder who can help overall but can't be counted on to improve the offense.
It all makes for a sneakily tricky situation, where they don't really have any holes - a good thing as far as it goes! - but that means that they don't have any obvious ways to improve either. In fact, I can think of only one potential free agent who would obviously improve the lineup, and he's going to cost like $500 million.
I felt this way last off season, too. FA just doesn’t seem as reliable in providing options. I think they may need to look to make a trade that stings a bit if they want to make a jump.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 18, 2023 11:31:24 GMT -5
A conundrum: what do you do when you're pretty good at every position... and that's not good enough?
I just posted in the gameday thread that the team has above average hitters available at every position but C, yet only a 103 wRC+ overall as a team. They need to get better, but how do you do that when you don't have any glaring weaknesses (combined with a very weak FA class)? In theory their in house options in the middle infield (Story, Urias/Reyes) can improve on some of the lousy production they got there from Kiké, Chang, et al. But you can't assume they won't have injuries next year and once again end up with those black holes in the lineup, if not at 2B and SS then at some other position. Meanwhile, they have to replace the above average production from Turner and Duvall just to tread water, and their only big league ready prospect is a glove-first centerfielder who can help overall but can't be counted on to improve the offense.
It all makes for a sneakily tricky situation, where they don't really have any holes - a good thing as far as it goes! - but that means that they don't have any obvious ways to improve either. In fact, I can think of only one potential free agent who would obviously improve the lineup, and he's going to cost like $500 million.
Yeah, I have had the same thought. The best value on the free agent market are the guys that project for under 2 WAR. The state of the roster has been such that we've been able to fill up the budget paying for lots of those guys without wasting WAR by pushing productive players to the bench or minors.
Now we've got 1.5'ish WAR+ players everywhere, including 6 deep in the rotation. They could just pay for Paxton and Nola or something and call it a day, and that would fit pretty well I suppose. If they don't pay for two pricey pitchers then they're going to have to get creative to spend all their money.
I don't think they really *need* to do anything with the position players. Duran/Verdugo/Rafaela/Yoshida/Ref in the OF, Story/Urias/Reyes/Rafaela in the middle infield looks fine to me. 2B is the spot to improve but there's no good options
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 18, 2023 11:39:34 GMT -5
It's not a fix to the offense but the defense has been awful this year, perhaps the answer to a better 2024 season is to prioritize pitching and defense and hope for a better year hitting from who they currently have. Rafaella in CF and not having Hernandez the butcher at SS is certainly a start to the defense. Maybe slide Duran over to LF and play Yoshida at DH more or less full time. That would probably make the OF defense night and day better. Still would like to see some sort of shot in the arm to this offense in the way of a good RHH slugger.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 18, 2023 11:59:38 GMT -5
It's not a fix to the offense but the defense has been awful this year, perhaps the answer to a better 2024 season is to prioritize pitching and defense and hope for a better year hitting from who they currently have. Rafaella in CF and not having Hernandez the butcher at SS is certainly a start to the defense. Maybe slide Duran over to LF and play Yoshida at DH more or less full time. That would probably make the OF defense night and day better. Still would like to see some sort of shot in the arm to this offense in the way of a good RHH slugger. This is the simple way to improve in 2024. The defense.
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