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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 31, 2023 13:40:04 GMT -5
So this is what I tanking looks like
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 13:40:26 GMT -5
This is by far my favorite game of the year and we're not even in the 2Q yet.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2023 13:42:56 GMT -5
I'm not complaining but ground helped Oliver catch that interception, but wow crazy start. Maybe but now 2 bad interceptions for Zappe. I guess if you want to hate on Zappe. I see them as good, I want to lose this game. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 13:43:16 GMT -5
What a play by Allen.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 13:46:39 GMT -5
Maybe but now 2 bad interceptions for Zappe. I guess if you want to hate on Zappe. I see them as good, I want to lose this game. I’d like to lose too, speaking solely on whose fault the picks were. First one the ball was late and placed where the defender could break it up and the second one the defender stepped right in front of. |
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Post by rasimon on Dec 31, 2023 13:48:50 GMT -5
Reminder: every impartial study evaluating AV return in proportion to draft capital available over 5-8 year windows that I've ever seen posted consistently rates the Patriots in the top 5-8. I just did a few studies of how well teams have drafted relative draft capital and Pats are in the middle of the pack. I looked at 2017-2022 drafts. AV numbers only go through EOY 2022. Including this year's stats could change the results. To estimate each team's draft capital, I calculated Sum(Jimmy Johnson points) during the period 2017-2022. The Pats Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) was 28th which is likely a large part of their problem. I considered a few different statistics. Each used Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) as the denominator. For numerators I used a few different measures of player value. wAV = weighted career approximate value. I would have preferred to use plain AV but Football Reference's draft pages don't provide that Ranked by Sum(wAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 17th DrAV = AV accumulated by the team who drafted the player Ranked by Sum(DrAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 16th Average DrAv...explanation below Using either of the above stats is going to give more value to players who were drafted further back in time as they have had more time to accumulate value. To correct for this, for each player, I calculated a yearly average statistic. Average DrAV = DrAV / MIN(2023-DraftYear, IF(round 1, 5,4)) this results in For players drafted in 2022 Average DrAV = DrAV since they have had 1 year to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2021 Average DrAV = DrAV/2 since they have had 2 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2020 Average DrAV = DrAV/3 since they have had 3 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2019 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 since they have had 4 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2018 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. For players drafted in 2017 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. Ranked by Sum(Average DrAV) / Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) the Pats came in 13th So (surprising to me) the Pats have not been awful at drafting relative to draft capital. They have been about average. However, they started near the bottom of the NFL in terms of draft capital. If you just consider wAV or DrAV added 2017-2022 (not correcting for draft capital) the Pats were second to last - barely edging out the Jets. That is the result of being near the bottom in available draft capital, combined with average drafting. That does not correct for the fact that players drafted further back have had more time to accumulate AV. We could scale each draftees AV to 4 years (or 5 if they were a first round pick) but that gives players credit for things they have not done yet. Not sure how to fairlly correct for that....but the point is the Pats have gotten very little out of the draft the last few years and that is why they now suck (that and mediocre FA signings). |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 13:51:50 GMT -5
Patriots defense is stout. Been dragging my feet since the blowouts, but there's no more excuses about "why" they're good. Imagine if they had Judon and Gonzalez and a mediocre QB. Not to mention if Jack Jones wasn't a clown. This should have been a playoff team. Just an abysmal job putting the offense together.
They should have quit on Mac sooner and brought in a veteran.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862 
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Post by cdj on Dec 31, 2023 14:01:40 GMT -5
Zappe is unspeakably bad it turns out
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 31, 2023 14:02:26 GMT -5
Zappe QB rating now 2.8 for the game
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 14:02:27 GMT -5
Literally just deleted a comment praising Zappe.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Dec 31, 2023 14:03:12 GMT -5
Literally just deleted a comment praising Zappe. Yeah I take back what I said after last week, lower IQ Chase Daniel |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 14:03:40 GMT -5
Another bad luck pick for Zappe… definitely receivers fault for not adjusting
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 14:04:13 GMT -5
This is by far the worst/best game of the year.
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Post by rasimon on Dec 31, 2023 14:05:20 GMT -5
Zappe is fine. He just needs to play against the (arguably) worst coverage in the NFL. Like he did last week.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2023 14:09:37 GMT -5
Why was Trent Brown a healthy scratch? Tanking? Starting Lowe and Mafi is a good way to do that.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 14:11:08 GMT -5
Why was Trent Brown a healthy scratch? Tanking? Starting Lowe and Mafi is a good way to do that. Probably to save some money when they didn't need to spend it. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2023 14:11:28 GMT -5
I didn't think Harris had a 2nd gear, wow he's showing me something.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 14:11:49 GMT -5
....
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 14:12:21 GMT -5
Why was Trent Brown a healthy scratch? Tanking? Starting Lowe and Mafi is a good way to do that. Most likely off field stuff |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Dec 31, 2023 14:12:49 GMT -5
Mr electricity put on the jets
I have pats +15 thank you Bailey
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 31, 2023 14:13:20 GMT -5
Why was Trent Brown a healthy scratch? Tanking? Starting Lowe and Mafi is a good way to do that. Most likely off field stuff I mean, he won't shut up about Malik so I think for Bill, why give him his incentives? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2023 14:14:05 GMT -5
Why was Trent Brown a healthy scratch? Tanking? Starting Lowe and Mafi is a good way to do that. Probably to save some money when they didn't need to spend it. 750k is pocket change in the NFL |
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Post by Montana Lemonious-Craig on Dec 31, 2023 14:18:00 GMT -5
Patriots defense is stout. Been dragging my feet since the blowouts, but there's no more excuses about "why" they're good. Imagine if they had Judon and Gonzalez and a mediocre QB. Not to mention if Jack Jones wasn't a clown. This should have been a playoff team. Just an abysmal job putting the offense together. They should have quit on Mac sooner and brought in a veteran. Joe Flacco was right there the whole time |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Dec 31, 2023 14:21:51 GMT -5
Alex Austin has been a beast this game
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 14:22:40 GMT -5
The Bills are so bad and while it’s going to suck winning this game, knocking them out of the playoffs and seeing Bills fans cry kind of makes it worth while.
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