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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 8, 2023 11:25:04 GMT -5
Average isn't everything but you can't say the bat is flat out bad and have the same player hit .272. This isn't Joey Gallo levels. Would I sign him? Absolutely not. But he's not terrible he's more meh. his xBA was .241, 1st percentile EV, 5th percentile xSLG, and he only walked 6.1% of the time. That’s pretty damn bad
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 8, 2023 13:33:47 GMT -5
Average isn't everything but you can't say the bat is flat out bad and have the same player hit .272. This isn't Joey Gallo levels. Would I sign him? Absolutely not. But he's not terrible he's more meh. his xBA was .241, 1st percentile EV, 5th percentile xSLG, and he only walked 6.1% of the time. That’s pretty damn bad Again, hes meh. He's not great and not worth the money. But when I think of flat out bad I'm thinking Gallo or Chris Davis after signing his deal with Baltimore. He was very streaky last year but at times he looked like the guy with KC. I don't like the fact he's going to get paid 8-10 aav. Maybe its because I'm comparing him to such a low bar at 2nd.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2023 13:40:09 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I think there's a possibility the Sox sign Whitfield.
Instead of spreading the 2b mediocrity among several players like they did this year the mediocrity would be confined to one player, albeit at a price tag that'll make us pull our hair out.
Merrifield can still hit a bit and going to Fenway could help a little, but hes an offensive mediocrity.
If only Valdez could play a major league 2b I'd go with him, but he hasn't. I know others here like Urias. I was unimpressed. He did draw walks but he did nothing else well and has never really hit at the big league level and he'll cost more to keep. I think he'll be non tendered. As I see it, he had a chance to seize the job last year and failed to do that.
I think for certainty purposes (albeit mediocrity) and because Merrifield can hit a bit, run decently, and not be a mess at 2b, while being able to back up on the outfield and is RH, I do believe the rumors that they're on on him. Hate to say it but I wouldnt be surprised if he lead off in 2024, especially if Duran gets dealt.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 8, 2023 13:51:38 GMT -5
All Red Sox 2B Totals 2022-2023 (per Fangraphs***) .249 AVG/.301 OBP/.394 SLG 87 wRC+ 2 WAR (25th in baseball over the last 2 years) Whit Merrifield 2022-2023 .262 AVG/.308 OBP/.379 SLG 91 wRC+ 3 WAR I definitely would aim higher than Merrifield if you can (Ha Seong Kim? Willy Adames? Drury?) - but 2B has been pretty bad for the Sox outside of Story the last two years (and even there, he struggled to hit half the time). I'm fine with Merrifield - or someone like him - being brought in if it raises the floor at that position, which is honestly more an indictment of the options at 2B currently than any high praise of Whit. Chances are they are going to have to piece together an Island of Misfit Toys at 2B regardless - I'd rather have an extra option in addition to Urias/Reyes/Valdez/etc. (*** = www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2023&pos=2b)
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2023 13:57:59 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I think there's a possibility the Sox sign Whitfield. Instead of spreading the 2b mediocrity among several players like they did this year the mediocrity would be confined to one player, albeit at a price tag that'll make us pull our hair out. Merrifield can still hit a bit and going to Fenway could help a little, but hes an offensive mediocrity. If only Valdez could play a major league 2b I'd go with him, but he hasn't. I know others here like Urias. I was unimpressed. He did draw walks but he did nothing else well and has never really hit at the big league level and he'll cost more to keep. I think he'll be non tendered. As I see it, he had a chance to seize the job last year and failed to do that. I think for certainty purposes (albeit mediocrity) and because Merrifield can hit a bit, run decently, and not be a mess at 2b, while being able to back up on the outfield and is RH, I do believe the rumors that they're on on him. Hate to say it but I wouldnt be surprised if he lead off in 2024, especially if Duran gets dealt. What could you possibly mean by this? Urias has a 107 wRC+ in his last 1200 PAs. Even just last year with the Red Sox he had a 98 wRC+, which was almost identical to Valdez (102), and better than Merrifield has done in any season since 2020.
I'd grant that Urias' defense was kind of disappointing, but there's an odd thing where a large number of people seem to have decided that his 68 PAs last year where he was playing injured for the Brewers is the true reflection of his abilities and the other 95% of his career going back to when he was 23 are the anomaly.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 8, 2023 14:00:21 GMT -5
I just don’t think the odds favor Merrifield being substantially better than Urias next year, so I’m not sure it makes sense to non-tender Urias to get off of his (presumably) sub-$5 million salary and then turn around and pay Merrifield around double that.
Someone like Drury is interesting, though, depending on what that deal looks like.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 8, 2023 14:03:15 GMT -5
I just don’t think the odds favor Merrifield being substantially better than Urias next year, so I’m not sure it makes sense to non-tender Urias to get off of his (presumably) sub-$5 million salary and then turn around and pay Merrifield around double that. Someone like Drury is interesting, though, depending on what that deal looks like. Trading for Drury and Matt Moore’s walk years seems like the move to me
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Post by asm19 on Nov 8, 2023 14:09:23 GMT -5
I just don’t think the odds favor Merrifield being substantially better than Urias next year, s o I’m not sure it makes sense to non-tender Urias to get off of his (presumably) sub-$5 million salary and then turn around and pay Merrifield around double that. Someone like Drury is interesting, though, depending on what that deal looks like. Why not have both? Get Merrifield or (Fill in Blank) and keep Urias if you still think he can be what he was 2021-2022. His Arb estimate is what, 4.70 mil? If you're not sold on Urias to stay healthy or be productive, you can can cut him/trade him/or even option him to Triple A (he has less than 5 years service time and an option remaining.)
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 8, 2023 14:24:33 GMT -5
I just don’t think the odds favor Merrifield being substantially better than Urias next year, s o I’m not sure it makes sense to non-tender Urias to get off of his (presumably) sub-$5 million salary and then turn around and pay Merrifield around double that. Someone like Drury is interesting, though, depending on what that deal looks like. Why not have both? Get Merrifield or (Fill in Blank) and keep Urias if you still think he can be what he was 2021-2022. His Arb estimate is what, 4.70 mil? If you're not sold on Urias to stay healthy or be productive, you can can cut him/trade him/or even option him to Triple A (he has less than 5 years service time and an option remaining.) I guess if I’m investing $15 million at second base I would like to be confident that one of the players there is actually good. The Sox have money to spend this offseason but another light-hitting second baseman doesn’t seem like a good use of resources. I think people are severely underestimating what a big difference it is to have Story at short instead of Kiké. That alone is such an improvement over last year’s team that I don’t think improving the middle infield defense should be an urgent priority. It’s already been done.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2023 14:27:13 GMT -5
I just don’t think the odds favor Merrifield being substantially better than Urias next year, so I’m not sure it makes sense to non-tender Urias to get off of his (presumably) sub-$5 million salary and then turn around and pay Merrifield around double that. Someone like Drury is interesting, though, depending on what that deal looks like. Trading for Drury and Matt Moore’s walk years seems like the move to me Moore's a free agent.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 14:33:03 GMT -5
I just don’t think the odds favor Merrifield being substantially better than Urias next year, s o I’m not sure it makes sense to non-tender Urias to get off of his (presumably) sub-$5 million salary and then turn around and pay Merrifield around double that. Someone like Drury is interesting, though, depending on what that deal looks like. Why not have both? Get Merrifield or (Fill in Blank) and keep Urias if you still think he can be what he was 2021-2022. His Arb estimate is what, 4.70 mil? If you're not sold on Urias to stay healthy or be productive, you can can cut him/trade him/or even option him to Triple A (he has less than 5 years service time and an option remaining.) Because they don't have unlimited money to spend and they can better spend the 9-10 mil Merrifield costs on something else.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 8, 2023 14:56:06 GMT -5
Why not have both? Get Merrifield or (Fill in Blank) and keep Urias if you still think he can be what he was 2021-2022. His Arb estimate is what, 4.70 mil? If you're not sold on Urias to stay healthy or be productive, you can can cut him/trade him/or even option him to Triple A (he has less than 5 years service time and an option remaining.) Because they don't have unlimited money to spend and they can better spend the 9-10 mil Merrifield costs on something else. I think that's fair insofar as we have no clue what the budget will be. (Cue Sam Kennedy robot voice: " The Red Sox under John Henry and Tom Werner have always been near the top payrolls in baseball.") If they really are "full throttle" I have no problem overpaying a guy or two for a year. If the budget is basically the CBT line or a token level above the CBT line however...
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 8, 2023 14:59:14 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2023 15:05:51 GMT -5
Because they don't have unlimited money to spend and they can better spend the 9-10 mil Merrifield costs on something else. I think that's fair insofar as we have no clue what the budget will be. (Cue Sam Kennedy robot voice: " The Red Sox under John Henry and Tom Werner have always been near the top payrolls in baseball.") If they really are "full throttle" I have no problem overpaying a guy or two for a year. If the budget is basically the CBT line or a token level above the CBT line however... The budget could be $350 million and I still don't think Merrifield would be the best use of the last $8 million or so of that.
Urias 1.2 WAR in 377 PAs
Reyes 0.4 WAR in 162 PAs Valdez 0.6 WAR in 236 PAs Merrifield 0.7 WAR in 553 PAs
All these look about right to me, and they have Merrifield as a downgrade from the three options already in house.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 8, 2023 15:14:55 GMT -5
Yeah I’d rather just go with Urias tbh
I won’t sulk if they sign Merrifield to a 1 year deal though
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Post by asm19 on Nov 8, 2023 15:27:01 GMT -5
"Sox want a 2B, preferably (but not absolutely) a RHH with versatility" 🤷 That could also apply to someone like Drury though.
I did love this line from Breslow though later on in the Speier Twitter thread: “If you wait for the perfect trade you will likely never transact.”
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 15:34:32 GMT -5
A trade for Drury or maybe Jorge Polanco since the Twins want to shed some salary would be much more preferable to me than signing Merrifield, which since I've made my thoughts on Merrifield known enough I'll move on from that aspect. Sure going and getting an upgrade for 2nd sounds good to me but I still find myself cautiously bullish on Urias so I'm not sure on the need for a 2nd baseman either.
I guess if Breslow is searching for a RHH 2nd baseman this offseason he does not share my bullishness on Urias, or so it would seem to me anyway.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 8, 2023 15:34:55 GMT -5
Sounds like a Urias nontender is coming
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 8, 2023 15:37:11 GMT -5
Kyle Farmer is a righty 2B with some versatility who is extremely available
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 8, 2023 15:40:27 GMT -5
I mean Urias is a RHH with some versatility
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2023 15:45:09 GMT -5
A trade for Drury or maybe Jorge Polanco since the Twins want to shed some salary would be much more preferable to me than signing Merrifield, which since I've made my thoughts on Merrifield known enough I'll move on from that aspect. Sure going and getting an upgrade for 2nd sounds good to me but I still find myself cautiously bullish on Urias so I'm not sure on the need for a 2nd baseman either. I guess if Breslow is searching for a RHH 2nd baseman this offseason he does not share my bullishness on Urias, or so it would seem to me anyway. Now Polanco is a more intriguing suggestion to me. That's the first name I've heard that I think could actually upgrade the position over the current roster. One downside is that he hits righties better than lefties so he's somewhat redundant with Valdez. The defense is also pretty iffy...
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Nov 8, 2023 15:51:27 GMT -5
I don’t have a strong opinion on 2B, but a potential issue I see with Urias is if the Sox feel he’s too injury-prone or unreliable. There’s value in having a mediocre sure thing, rather than a mediocre Bloomian patchwork question mark.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 15:51:28 GMT -5
A trade for Drury or maybe Jorge Polanco since the Twins want to shed some salary would be much more preferable to me than signing Merrifield, which since I've made my thoughts on Merrifield known enough I'll move on from that aspect. Sure going and getting an upgrade for 2nd sounds good to me but I still find myself cautiously bullish on Urias so I'm not sure on the need for a 2nd baseman either. I guess if Breslow is searching for a RHH 2nd baseman this offseason he does not share my bullishness on Urias, or so it would seem to me anyway. Now Polanco is a more intriguing suggestion to me. That's the first name I've heard that I think could actually upgrade the position over the current roster. One downside is that he hits righties better than lefties so he's somewhat redundant with Valdez. The defense is also pretty iffy... I had thought of Polanco early today when someone posted that the Twins wanted to cut some payroll and he jumped out to me as about the only guy on the Twins that would make some sense. Now seeing that Breslow apparently wants a RHH 2nd baseman he seems like a fit for that. As you said his defense #s are pretty ugly so I don't really love that aspect but he's been an above league average hitter for the past three seasons so he would raise the floor of the offense. He has a club option for next year at 12M so theoretically he'd be a nice bridge to Mayer as well. In all honesty it's pretty slim pickings if Breslow is dead set on upgrading 2nd base or at least upgrading the floor of 2nd base. Merrifield is the only half way decent option as an FA and in terms of trades nobody really jumped out other than Polanco and Drury.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 8, 2023 15:58:48 GMT -5
Maybe the Padres would trade Kim. Dump a little salary, move Cronenworth to 2B where he’d actually be valuable and trade him later.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2023 16:13:29 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I think there's a possibility the Sox sign Whitfield. Instead of spreading the 2b mediocrity among several players like they did this year the mediocrity would be confined to one player, albeit at a price tag that'll make us pull our hair out. Merrifield can still hit a bit and going to Fenway could help a little, but hes an offensive mediocrity. If only Valdez could play a major league 2b I'd go with him, but he hasn't. I know others here like Urias. I was unimpressed. He did draw walks but he did nothing else well and has never really hit at the big league level and he'll cost more to keep. I think he'll be non tendered. As I see it, he had a chance to seize the job last year and failed to do that. I think for certainty purposes (albeit mediocrity) and because Merrifield can hit a bit, run decently, and not be a mess at 2b, while being able to back up on the outfield and is RH, I do believe the rumors that they're on on him. Hate to say it but I wouldnt be surprised if he lead off in 2024, especially if Duran gets dealt. What could you possibly mean by this? Urias has a 107 wRC+ in his last 1200 PAs. Even just last year with the Red Sox he had a 98 wRC+, which was almost identical to Valdez (102), and better than Merrifield has done in any season since 2020. I'd grant that Urias' defense was kind of disappointing, but there's an odd thing where a large number of people seem to have decided that his 68 PAs last year where he was playing injured for the Brewers is the true reflection of his abilities and the other 95% of his career going back to when he was 23 are the anomaly.
I'm talking hitting for batting average, the hit tool. I'm not talking about the total offensive package including walks and power. Has Urias even managed to hit .250 in a season? That's what I was referring to. He can get away with hitting. 240 or thereabouts but he cant get away with hitting like he did last year. Mark Bellhorn was a lousy hitter but he had years where he was a good offensive player anyways. But when he stopped hitting almost altogether he couldn't keep his job.
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