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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by kwodes on Nov 12, 2023 5:27:47 GMT -5
Exactly, I'm not sure how this spiraled to what it became. It started with me suggesting they target Corbin and Adames. He would be a perfect fit and wouldn't cost a huge amount to acquire. Could even be part of a larger package where you acquire Adames AND burnes, but that's a different conversation. I don't know why Adames wouldn't cost much. For starters, the hole we're filling is 2B, not SS. Would it be great to have two top-fielding SS up the middle? Sure, it would be absolute luxury. But there are other teams who could be interested in Adames as a SS (e.g. SFG, CLE, LAA, TB, LAD) and this will drive his price up, particularly in a year with a light FA SS market. Throw in the mystery that is his bat and I just think there are better uses of resources than paying a SS price to fill a 2B hole. He would cost a lot less than Soto would. So it was more relatively speaking. He's a little more valuable than Gleybar so I think it wouldn't be a huge cost.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 13, 2023 12:30:53 GMT -5
A lull in the news cycle and a long weekend bought me time to make my prediction. The current starting point has its strengths (mostly SP depth and bullpen top-end) and weaknesses (position player depth/inexperience). As always, thanks in advance for tearing this to shreds.
Red Sox 2024 Roster
SP Sale* Jordan Montgomery* (acquired via FA) +$25m AAV Bello Pivetta Houck Crawford Murphy* (40) Mata (40) Gonzalez (40) Perales (40) Penrod* (40)
RP Jansen Martin Robert Stephenson (acquired via FA) +$6m AAV Brent Suter* (acquired via FA) +$5m AAV Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino* Jacques* (40) Mills (40) Kelly (40) Robertson (40)
Batters C/2B - Wong 1B - Casas* 2B/SS - Willy Adames (acquired from MIL for Nick Yorke) +$8m AAV 3B - Devers* SS/2B - Story LF - Juan Soto* (acquired from SDP for Whitlock, Verdugo, Walter, Nathan Hickey, and cash) +$32m AAV CF/LF - Duran* RF/CF - Abreu* DH/LF - Yoshida*
Reserves C - McGuire* CF - Michael A. Taylor (acquired via FA) +$8m AAV RF/LF - Refsnyder 2B/SS/3B - Reyes 2B - Valdez (40) SS/2B/CF - Hamilton* (40) CF/SS/2B - Rafaela (40) 1B - Garrett Cooper (40) (acquired via FA) +$3m AAV 1B/SS - Dalbec (40)
C - Scott (40)
Notes There’s really no way the Sox are going to outbid NYM for Yamamoto, so they go hard after Montgomery, who takes the ball, throws strikes with middling velocity, and misses his share of bats. Will be particularly sweet when he abuses the MFYs. Stephenson was fixed by TB in the same way that Brasier was fixed by LAD, which is to say they told him to learn a cutter, he did, and it worked wonders. Suter is a veteran strike thrower who induces weak contact. Sixty percent of his balls in play for COL in 2023 were either grounders or pop-ups. He also keeps the ball in the park - Bleier redux (but it works this time).
Is the outlay for Soto light? I dunno. Even if he matches his predicted 6.6 fWAR in 2024 (up from 5.5 in 2023), that’s only about 3.6 WAR in excess value. Verdugo should provide about half of that (assuming BOS pays his full salary) and fills Soto’s spot in the field. Whitlock is a proven, if injury-prone, performer - you can even dream on him as a starter - and he’s on a team-friendly deal for the next 3-5 years. (He might also benefit personally from a change of scenery following the trauma he’s endured, not that it had anything to do with Boston.) I think that should cover the rest of the excess value. Add in two top 20 picks in the system and a boatload of cash and is it still light? Walter also has a chance to start and grew up quite a bit in 2023. His ugly MLB numbers were heavily skewed by a 6-run 6th inning in a blowout in KC after he had already pitched three solid innings in relief of Paxton, who was lit up in the first two innings. If Cora doesn’t send Walter out for a fourth inning of relief, his ERA on the season would’ve been 4.09. Hickey is a bat-first (and perhaps bat-only) catcher. He may not become the next Schwarber but a solid hit tool is a good place to start. Maybe the price for Soto has to go up due to other bids but I’m starting here with two high-floor, cheap, controllable pitchers with starter upside, a veteran OF placeholder, and a minor-league bat… and taking ~$25m off of their books. Maybe Preller is also intrigued by the challenge of getting Dalbec to his 70 raw consistently in the big leagues - he’s welcome to try.
I'm on record as a skeptic about Adames' bat - his numbers give off a swing-for-the-fences-on-every-pitch vibe - but his defense is hard to ignore. I guess count me in if you can get him for Yorke, straight up. That's a significant price for a 1-year rental but it appears that Meidroth provides good cover in the system. Taylor is, to me, a much better play than hoping Duvall catches fire again while playing a terrible CF. Duvall ranked 31st in CF defense by FG among the 32 players who logged 450+ innings there in 2023 and it showed - I never saw a CF play deeper or cover less ground. Taylor is a true CF who hits LHP (143 wRC+ in 2023) and is much better suited to a reserve role, as a weak-side platoon with Duran and late-inning replacement. Cooper also crushes southpaws and plays decent 1B defense. Could platoon at DH when he’s on the active roster, depending on in-season injury/performance related roster shuffling. Urias non-tendered. Gillaspie, Weiss designated. Gonzalez, Perales, and Scott Penrod added to the 40-man.
Lineups
vs. RHP Duran Soto Devers Casas Yoshida Abreu Adames Story McGuire
vs. LHP Refsnyder Soto Devers Casas Taylor Story Yoshida Adames Abreu Wong
Is it a playoff roster? I think so, mainly due to the pitching but the lineups are also pretty strong, albeit lefty-heavy. The defense improves with the addition of Adames, Story playing a full season (allowing Raffy to stay in his lane) and Rafaela filling in at CF or 2B as the season progresses (after improving his plate discipline in Worcester). If the existing rotation is as strong as @eric insists, adding Montgomery can only help. Bullpen also strong. Payroll-wise, I’ve got a ballpark estimate of adding $87m to what Spotrac estimates as a $183m floor. That would be $270m, with the tax starting at $237m and draft picks surrendered above $277m. Not a ton of wiggle room but some.
Edit: Tweaked the Rule 5 protection to include Penrod over Scott. Forgot to check Scott's CS numbers, which are bad. Also harder to stash a C for 90 days but I suppose it would be possible.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 13, 2023 14:21:02 GMT -5
Houck, Duran, and Yorke to the Brewers for Burnes.
Verdugo, Bleis, Gonzalez, Drohan and Bonaci to the Padres for Tatis and Cronenworth (take his contract on)
Sign Montgomery, Sign Garver
Yoshida LF Tatis RF Devers 3B Garver DH Casas 1B Story SS Cronenworth 2B Wong C Rafaela CF
Burnes Montgomery Bello Sale Crawford
Keep Teel, Mayer, Anthony
Pipe dream scenario but I’d love it
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 13, 2023 14:32:22 GMT -5
Houck, Duran, and Yorke to the Brewers for Burnes. Verdugo, Bleis, Gonzalez, Drohan and Bonaci to the Padres for Tatis and Cronenworth (take his contract on) Sign Montgomery, Sign Garver Yoshida LF Tatis RF Devers 3B Garver DH Casas 1B Story SS Cronenworth 2B Wong C Rafaela CF Burnes Montgomery Bello Sale Crawford Keep Teel, Mayer, Anthony Pipe dream scenario but I’d love it I feel like your first trade proposal is way too much for the Sox to give up and the second one isn't even close to enough.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 13, 2023 14:39:31 GMT -5
A lull in the news cycle and a long weekend bought me time to make my prediction. The current starting point has its strengths (mostly SP depth and bullpen top-end) and weaknesses (position player depth/inexperience). As always, thanks in advance for tearing this to shreds. Red Sox 2024 RosterSPSale* Jordan Montgomery* (acquired via FA) +$25m AAV Bello Pivetta Houck Crawford Murphy* (40) Mata (40) Gonzalez (40) Perales (40) RPJansen Martin Robert Stephenson (acquired via FA) +$6m AAV Brent Suter* (acquired via FA) +$5m AAV Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino* Jacques* (40) Mills (40) Kelly (40) Robertson (40) BattersC/2B - Wong 1B - Casas* 2B/SS - Willy Adames (acquired from MIL for Nick Yorke) +$8m AAV 3B - Devers* SS/2B - Story LF - Juan Soto* (acquired from SDP for Whitlock, Verdugo, Walter, Nathan Hickey, and cash) +$32m AAV CF/LF - Duran* RF/CF - Abreu* DH/LF - Yoshida* ReservesC - McGuire* CF - Michael A. Taylor (acquired via FA) +$8m AAV RF/LF - Refsnyder 2B/SS/3B - Reyes 2B - Valdez (40) SS/2B/CF - Hamilton* (40) CF/SS/2B - Rafaela (40) 1B - Garrett Cooper (40) (acquired via FA) +$3m AAV 1B/SS - Dalbec (40) C - Scott (40) NotesThere’s really no way the Sox are going to outbid NYM for Yamamoto, so they go hard after Montgomery, who takes the ball, throws strikes with middling velocity, and misses his share of bats. Will be particularly sweet when he abuses the MFYs. Stephenson was fixed by TB in the same way that Brasier was fixed by LAD, which is to say they told him to learn a cutter, he did, and it worked wonders. Suter is a veteran strike thrower who induces weak contact. Sixty percent of his balls in play for COL in 2023 were either grounders or pop-ups. He also keeps the ball in the park - Bleier redux (but it works this time). Is the outlay for Soto light? I dunno. Even if he matches his predicted 6.6 fWAR in 2024 (up from 5.5 in 2023), that’s only about 3.6 WAR in excess value. Verdugo should provide about half of that (assuming BOS pays his full salary) and fills Soto’s spot in the field. Whitlock is a proven, if injury-prone, performer - you can even dream on him as a starter - and he’s on a team-friendly deal for the next 3-5 years. (He might also benefit personally from a change of scenery following the trauma he’s endured, not that it had anything to do with Boston.) I think that should cover the rest of the excess value. Add in two top 20 picks in the system and a boatload of cash and is it still light? Walter also has a chance to start and grew up quite a bit in 2023. His ugly MLB numbers were heavily skewed by a 6-run 6th inning in a blowout in KC after he had already pitched three solid innings in relief of Paxton, who was lit up in the first two innings. If Cora doesn’t send Walter out for a fourth inning of relief, his ERA on the season would’ve been 4.09. Hickey is a bat-first (and perhaps bat-only) catcher. He may not become the next Schwarber but a solid hit tool is a good place to start. Maybe the price for Soto has to go up due to other bids but I’m starting here with two high-floor, cheap, controllable pitchers with starter upside, a veteran OF placeholder, and a minor-league bat… and taking ~$25m off of their books. Maybe Preller is also intrigued by the challenge of getting Dalbec to his 70 raw consistently in the big leagues - he’s welcome to try. I'm on record as a skeptic about Adames' bat - his numbers give off a swing-for-the-fences-on-every-pitch vibe - but his defense is hard to ignore. I guess count me in if you can get him for Yorke, straight up. That's a significant price for a 1-year rental but it appears that Meidroth provides good cover in the system. Taylor is, to me, a much better play than hoping Duvall catches fire again while playing a terrible CF. Duvall ranked 31st in CF defense by FG among the 32 players who logged 450+ innings there in 2023 and it showed - I never saw a CF play deeper or cover less ground. Taylor is a true CF who hits LHP (143 wRC+ in 2023) and is much better suited to a reserve role, as a weak-side platoon with Duran and late-inning replacement. Cooper also crushes southpaws and plays decent 1B defense. Could platoon at DH when he’s on the active roster, depending on in-season injury/performance related roster shuffling. Urias non-tendered. Gillaspie, Weiss designated. Gonzalez, Perales, and Scott added to the 40-man. Lineups vs. RHP Duran Soto Devers Casas Yoshida Abreu Adames Story McGuire vs. LHP Refsnyder Soto Devers Casas Taylor Story Yoshida Adames Abreu Wong Is it a playoff roster? I think so, mainly due to the pitching but the lineups are also pretty strong, albeit lefty-heavy. The defense improves with the addition of Adames, Story playing a full season (allowing Raffy to stay in his lane) and Rafaela filling in at CF or 2B as the season progresses (after improving his plate discipline in Worcester). If the existing rotation is as strong as @eric insists, adding Montgomery can only help. Bullpen also strong. Payroll-wise, I’ve got a ballpark estimate of adding $87m to what Spotrac estimates as a $183m floor. That would be $270m, with the tax starting at $237m and draft picks surrendered above $277m. Not a ton of wiggle room but some. Re; Payroll I believe Spotrac is underestimating. Red Sox Payroll has them at just under $200M now. I really doubt they add $87M to that or go above the $277 number. As for your acquisitions, I think Taylor is a really interesting suggestion I haven't seen mentioned much. I could definitely see him as a good fit for the centerfield job, they need to add a true CF.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 13, 2023 14:54:56 GMT -5
Fangraphs projects the Red Sox as the 11th best team in the majors as rosters stand. It has them with slightly above average starting and relief pitching, but an offense that's a tick below average. More confirmation that, while everyone is focused on improving the pitching, it's the positional side that might be a thornier issue. (But also it seems like this methodology ignores defense...?)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 13, 2023 22:51:07 GMT -5
A lull in the news cycle and a long weekend bought me time to make my prediction. The current starting point has its strengths (mostly SP depth and bullpen top-end) and weaknesses (position player depth/inexperience). As always, thanks in advance for tearing this to shreds. Red Sox 2024 RosterSPSale* Jordan Montgomery* (acquired via FA) +$25m AAV Bello Pivetta Houck Crawford Murphy* (40) Mata (40) Gonzalez (40) Perales (40) RPJansen Martin Robert Stephenson (acquired via FA) +$6m AAV Brent Suter* (acquired via FA) +$5m AAV Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino* Jacques* (40) Mills (40) Kelly (40) Robertson (40) BattersC/2B - Wong 1B - Casas* 2B/SS - Willy Adames (acquired from MIL for Nick Yorke) +$8m AAV 3B - Devers* SS/2B - Story LF - Juan Soto* (acquired from SDP for Whitlock, Verdugo, Walter, Nathan Hickey, and cash) +$32m AAV CF/LF - Duran* RF/CF - Abreu* DH/LF - Yoshida* ReservesC - McGuire* CF - Michael A. Taylor (acquired via FA) +$8m AAV RF/LF - Refsnyder 2B/SS/3B - Reyes 2B - Valdez (40) SS/2B/CF - Hamilton* (40) CF/SS/2B - Rafaela (40) 1B - Garrett Cooper (40) (acquired via FA) +$3m AAV 1B/SS - Dalbec (40) C - Scott (40) NotesThere’s really no way the Sox are going to outbid NYM for Yamamoto, so they go hard after Montgomery, who takes the ball, throws strikes with middling velocity, and misses his share of bats. Will be particularly sweet when he abuses the MFYs. Stephenson was fixed by TB in the same way that Brasier was fixed by LAD, which is to say they told him to learn a cutter, he did, and it worked wonders. Suter is a veteran strike thrower who induces weak contact. Sixty percent of his balls in play for COL in 2023 were either grounders or pop-ups. He also keeps the ball in the park - Bleier redux (but it works this time). Is the outlay for Soto light? I dunno. Even if he matches his predicted 6.6 fWAR in 2024 (up from 5.5 in 2023), that’s only about 3.6 WAR in excess value. Verdugo should provide about half of that (assuming BOS pays his full salary) and fills Soto’s spot in the field. Whitlock is a proven, if injury-prone, performer - you can even dream on him as a starter - and he’s on a team-friendly deal for the next 3-5 years. (He might also benefit personally from a change of scenery following the trauma he’s endured, not that it had anything to do with Boston.) I think that should cover the rest of the excess value. Add in two top 20 picks in the system and a boatload of cash and is it still light? Walter also has a chance to start and grew up quite a bit in 2023. His ugly MLB numbers were heavily skewed by a 6-run 6th inning in a blowout in KC after he had already pitched three solid innings in relief of Paxton, who was lit up in the first two innings. If Cora doesn’t send Walter out for a fourth inning of relief, his ERA on the season would’ve been 4.09. Hickey is a bat-first (and perhaps bat-only) catcher. He may not become the next Schwarber but a solid hit tool is a good place to start. Maybe the price for Soto has to go up due to other bids but I’m starting here with two high-floor, cheap, controllable pitchers with starter upside, a veteran OF placeholder, and a minor-league bat… and taking ~$25m off of their books. Maybe Preller is also intrigued by the challenge of getting Dalbec to his 70 raw consistently in the big leagues - he’s welcome to try. I'm on record as a skeptic about Adames' bat - his numbers give off a swing-for-the-fences-on-every-pitch vibe - but his defense is hard to ignore. I guess count me in if you can get him for Yorke, straight up. That's a significant price for a 1-year rental but it appears that Meidroth provides good cover in the system. Taylor is, to me, a much better play than hoping Duvall catches fire again while playing a terrible CF. Duvall ranked 31st in CF defense by FG among the 32 players who logged 450+ innings there in 2023 and it showed - I never saw a CF play deeper or cover less ground. Taylor is a true CF who hits LHP (143 wRC+ in 2023) and is much better suited to a reserve role, as a weak-side platoon with Duran and late-inning replacement. Cooper also crushes southpaws and plays decent 1B defense. Could platoon at DH when he’s on the active roster, depending on in-season injury/performance related roster shuffling. Urias non-tendered. Gillaspie, Weiss designated. Gonzalez, Perales, and Scott added to the 40-man. Lineups vs. RHP Duran Soto Devers Casas Yoshida Abreu Adames Story McGuire vs. LHP Refsnyder Soto Devers Casas Taylor Story Yoshida Adames Abreu Wong Is it a playoff roster? I think so, mainly due to the pitching but the lineups are also pretty strong, albeit lefty-heavy. The defense improves with the addition of Adames, Story playing a full season (allowing Raffy to stay in his lane) and Rafaela filling in at CF or 2B as the season progresses (after improving his plate discipline in Worcester). If the existing rotation is as strong as @eric insists, adding Montgomery can only help. Bullpen also strong. Payroll-wise, I’ve got a ballpark estimate of adding $87m to what Spotrac estimates as a $183m floor. That would be $270m, with the tax starting at $237m and draft picks surrendered above $277m. Not a ton of wiggle room but some. Re; Payroll I believe Spotrac is underestimating. Red Sox Payroll has them at just under $200M now. I really doubt they add $87M to that or go above the $277 number.
As for your acquisitions, I think Taylor is a really interesting suggestion I haven't seen mentioned much. I could definitely see him as a good fit for the centerfield job, they need to add a true CF. I don't think they go over that either. I only got to $270m when I caved to the sexy idea of having Story/Adames up the middle.... Otherwise I had a platoon of Valdez/Reyes at 2B with a $262m payroll (and Yorke still in the fold). But seriously, why shouldn't they approach ( not exceed) the $277m line in the sand? They've only been lowballing the last few years b/c Chaim bollixed the 2022 deadline limbo. I think they'll be spending and maybe even to the extent that they get Yamamoto (but prolly not with Soto in tow).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 13, 2023 23:03:55 GMT -5
Houck, Duran, and Yorke to the Brewers for Burnes. Verdugo, Bleis, Gonzalez, Drohan and Bonaci to the Padres for Tatis and Cronenworth (take his contract on) Sign Montgomery, Sign Garver Yoshida LF Tatis RF Devers 3B Garver DH Casas 1B Story SS Cronenworth 2B Wong C Rafaela CF Burnes Montgomery Bello Sale Crawford Keep Teel, Mayer, Anthony Pipe dream scenario but I’d love it I haven't run the numbers but at first blush I'd say you're over $277m.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 14, 2023 7:22:38 GMT -5
Re; Payroll I believe Spotrac is underestimating. Red Sox Payroll has them at just under $200M now. I really doubt they add $87M to that or go above the $277 number.
As for your acquisitions, I think Taylor is a really interesting suggestion I haven't seen mentioned much. I could definitely see him as a good fit for the centerfield job, they need to add a true CF. I don't think they go over that either. I only got to $270m when I caved to the sexy idea of having Story/Adames up the middle.... Otherwise I had a platoon of Valdez/Reyes at 2B with a $262m payroll (and Yorke still in the fold). But seriously, why shouldn't they approach ( not exceed) the $277m line in the sand? They've only been lowballing the last few years b/c Chaim bollixed the 2022 deadline limbo. I think they'll be spending and maybe even to the extent that they get Yamamoto (but prolly not with Soto in tow). If you’re basing on the spotrac numbers which are low the $262 number might actually already be closer to $278. Agree with you that they should push as high as they can. As long they have a reasonable path to dipping back down to $240 in a couple years, max out the rest.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 14, 2023 9:40:48 GMT -5
As a reminder, we have a subforum here to discuss all hypothetical trades (there is a thread re: Soto). Let's steer away from that discussion in this thread. Thanks.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 14, 2023 11:03:04 GMT -5
I moved the Soto hypothetical trade discussion to the subforum linked in my post above.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 10:04:13 GMT -5
Sort of a random thought not sure where to put it - I might be crazy but I kind of still think Garret Whitlock has the highest ceiling as a starter in the organization currently, and yet they can't really put him in the rotation to start the year. It's a bit of a conundrum to me.
I know most here will say the ship has sailed and he can't stay healthy yada yada, but particularly with Breslow and Bailey in the org now and a chance to add more to a guy who has already shown the ability to do that quickly I'd love to see him in a starting role again.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2023 11:08:50 GMT -5
Sort of a random thought not sure where to put it - I might be crazy but I kind of still think Garret Whitlock has the highest ceiling as a starter in the organization currently, and yet they can't really put him in the rotation to start the year. It's a bit of a conundrum to me. I know most here will say the ship has sailed and he can't stay healthy yada yada, but particularly with Breslow and Bailey in the org now and a chance to add more to a guy who has already shown the ability to do that quickly I'd love to see him in a starting role again. To play devils advocate, he’s not very good at thing Breslow arguably values most which is missing bats in the zone. Not that Bello was either, and maybe they’ll find something in their stuff that can fix this. It’s hard to know exactly how Breslow views all of these guys because Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta are all interesting arms to say the least. Their moves will be telling.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 11:16:09 GMT -5
Sort of a random thought not sure where to put it - I might be crazy but I kind of still think Garret Whitlock has the highest ceiling as a starter in the organization currently, and yet they can't really put him in the rotation to start the year. It's a bit of a conundrum to me. I know most here will say the ship has sailed and he can't stay healthy yada yada, but particularly with Breslow and Bailey in the org now and a chance to add more to a guy who has already shown the ability to do that quickly I'd love to see him in a starting role again. To play devils advocate, he’s not very good at thing Breslow arguably values most which is missing bats in the zone. Not that Bello was either, and maybe they’ll find something in their stuff that can fix this. It’s hard to know exactly how Breslow views all of these guys because Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta are all interesting arms to say the least. Their moves will be telling. Thought he said something along the lines of you can teach better stuff but not command, but I might be misremembering that
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 15, 2023 11:29:31 GMT -5
To play devils advocate, he’s not very good at thing Breslow arguably values most which is missing bats in the zone. Not that Bello was either, and maybe they’ll find something in their stuff that can fix this. It’s hard to know exactly how Breslow views all of these guys because Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta are all interesting arms to say the least. Their moves will be telling. Thought he said something along the lines of you can teach better stuff but not command, but I might be misremembering that Pretty sure it's just the opposite.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 15, 2023 11:41:04 GMT -5
To play devils advocate, he’s not very good at thing Breslow arguably values most which is missing bats in the zone. Not that Bello was either, and maybe they’ll find something in their stuff that can fix this. It’s hard to know exactly how Breslow views all of these guys because Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta are all interesting arms to say the least. Their moves will be telling. Thought he said something along the lines of you can teach better stuff but not command, but I might be misremembering that Thats kinda how I remember it.....paraphrased ("It is easier to improve someone's velocity than to improve their control")
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 11:47:06 GMT -5
Thought he said something along the lines of you can teach better stuff but not command, but I might be misremembering that Pretty sure it's just the opposite. This is the quote I was thinking of, he talks about how they were able to make significant strides improving the stuff of pitchers throughout their org, though in context it may be referring more to minor leaguers. Also what green monster said, I remember him saying that it’s easier to teach velocity than control though I cant find the direct quote. Anyways not sure whether or not this makes Whitlock a particularly good fit for his development model, but the fact that he’s shown the aptitude to pick up new things quickly makes me intrigued by how he’ll work with a supposedly brilliant new pitching infrastructure.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2023 11:55:50 GMT -5
To play devils advocate, he’s not very good at thing Breslow arguably values most which is missing bats in the zone. Not that Bello was either, and maybe they’ll find something in their stuff that can fix this. It’s hard to know exactly how Breslow views all of these guys because Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta are all interesting arms to say the least. Their moves will be telling. Thought he said something along the lines of you can teach better stuff but not command, but I might be misremembering that You’re remembering right. He did say that too, but he said the best way of measuring said stuff was whiffs in the strike zone. To oversimplify, if 2 pitchers have identical stats, but one is missing bats in the strike zone while the others is relying on chases, he’ll take the one who is harder to hit. But then the question with Whitlock becomes, do you think you can improve his stuff to where it needs to be to induce more swings and misses in the zone, or do you choose to try and develop a guy who already does get them like Crawford (who still had a solid 2.5 BB/9 himself)? Outside of Sale, the arms are a thoroughly mixed bag when it comes to strengths and weaknesses. Can’t wait to see what direction Breslow steers the ship in.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 12:04:29 GMT -5
Thought he said something along the lines of you can teach better stuff but not command, but I might be misremembering that You’re remembering right. He did say that too, but he said the best way of measuring said stuff was whiffs in the strike zone. To oversimplify, if 2 pitchers have identical stats, but one is missing bats in the strike zone while the others is relying on chases, he’ll take the one who is harder to hit. But then the question with Whitlock becomes, do you think you can improve his stuff to where it needs to be to induce more swings and misses in the zone, or do you choose to try and develop a guy who already does get them like Crawford (who still had a solid 2.5 BB/9 himself)? Outside of Sale, the arms are a thoroughly mixed bag when it comes to strengths and weaknesses. Can’t wait to see what direction Breslow steers the ship in. Totally agree with the takeaway, just to add one point though on his career Whitlock does have the highest swinging strike % of any of he/Bello/Houck/Crawford, not sure how that splits by in zone vs out of zone or if that’s skewed by having more relief innings, but it’s at least not like he’s on the low end there.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 18, 2023 13:24:25 GMT -5
Predictions on 2B now? I’ll guess they get Polanco.
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Post by costpet on Nov 19, 2023 11:09:45 GMT -5
Sale should be the closer. There is no way he lasts a full season as a starter. But he could if he’s only asked to pitch one inning at a time. With his age and physical history, it makes sense. Then use Jansen as trade bait.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2023 11:48:06 GMT -5
Sale should be the closer. There is no way he lasts a full season as a starter. But he could if he’s only asked to pitch one inning at a time. With his age and physical history, it makes sense. Then use Jansen as trade bait. Who knows if he can even pitch on back to back days without breaking down?
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Post by costpet on Nov 19, 2023 12:15:51 GMT -5
Or back to back starts. I think it makes sense and frees Jansen to acquire something else of need.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2023 12:49:35 GMT -5
Or back to back starts. I think it makes sense and frees Jansen to acquire something else of need. Either way they're not going to pay him 29 million to close.
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Post by costpet on Nov 19, 2023 13:10:31 GMT -5
Why not? They have to pay him anyway. Why not try to get a full season out of him instead of putting him on the IR for half a season or more.
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