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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 20, 2023 19:41:11 GMT -5
Polanco on 1/11 with an 11 million club option doesn't seem like it should cost that much.
I think the Twins prefer to trade Kyle Farmer who I'd be happy to nab and platoon with Valdez
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 20, 2023 23:04:35 GMT -5
Polanco is maybe slightly better than what I think Urias is likely to be, and I would have been fine with them keeping Urias. 2.6 and 2.8 WAR/150 games the last two seasons. Maybe a health concern haven’t looked at what kept him out of games. Adames and Kim are in another category of player and will cost a lot more to acquire if their teams are even willing to trade them at all. I'm not calling you out specifically, but I think people overuse WAR/150; it happened a ton throughout threads debating the merits of Mondesi and Duvall and it routinely overvalues guys that have done a mixed job staying on the field.
My greater point is simply that I don't think Polanco is better enough to pay the prospect cost rather than just sign a bounce-back guy. Preferable to me is getting a good fielder so we have a killer up-the-middle defense and finding the offense elsewhere.
Adames will definitely cost more to acquire and I'll admit I don't want him if the Red Sox don't make one or more serious FA acquisitions – I hate trading for rentals when you're a fringe contender. That being said, I definitely think the Brewers would listen – trading guys as they get close to free agency is very much in line with how they operate.
Edit: meant to say Mondesi, not Kikè.
This is by far my preference as well. We've already got a platoon of fringy-fielding 2B who figure to hit (SSS but Reyes and Valdez have mashed big league LHP and RHP, respectively). Why trade for a "starting" one of those in Polanco (who has played 184 games in the last two seasons)? For me a more immediate priority is a glove-first guy as a backup for protecting a lead. If you get Polanco, you'd still need that too.
I'm not crazy about Adames's bat but I'd love to trade for his glove. Kim would check all the boxes but cost a ton more. There are several cheaper, Pokey-like options who would also cover backup SS and protect you from late ugly losses.
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Post by carl4sox on Nov 21, 2023 11:47:30 GMT -5
How much in trade for Kim? With SD wanting to cut payroll, what prospects would we give up?
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 21, 2023 11:54:05 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 21, 2023 12:03:21 GMT -5
India might not cost all that much. His ROY season is going to boost his arb salaries a little above his level. $4 million this coming year isn't a crazy bargain for a 1.5 WAR guy. He's probably an underdog to even get tendered his third arb year.
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briam
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Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Nov 21, 2023 12:05:20 GMT -5
Looks like the big 3 pitchers available on the trade market are Glasnow, Cease, and Burnes. I’d probably rank them in that order of preference too.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Nov 21, 2023 12:07:40 GMT -5
Poor Trevor would be exhausted covering that much territory between India and Devers.
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Post by carl4sox on Nov 21, 2023 12:56:00 GMT -5
Houck’s too much for Kim. A lesser pitching prospect plus Yorke would be fine.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 21, 2023 13:40:50 GMT -5
I can see Pivetta and Walter for India happening
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Post by carl4sox on Nov 21, 2023 15:46:48 GMT -5
No — Pivetta’s a keeper. For India? Jeez.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Nov 21, 2023 16:02:34 GMT -5
I can see Pivetta and Walter for India happening There's no way I'm trading Pivetta or Houck for India. Pivetta was one of our best pitchers last year is still cheap and could be ready to put it all together finally. Word has it Tim Anderson has no problem playing 2nd base. I'm not crazy about his attitude, but I'd make the call as a change of scenery type.
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Post by thelpc on Nov 21, 2023 20:57:45 GMT -5
Would bringing back Moncada make any sense? White Sox seem willing to trade everybody
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 21, 2023 21:01:22 GMT -5
Would bringing back Moncada make any sense? White Sox seem willing to trade everybody Last time Moncada played 2B (2018) he put up -18 OAA
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 21, 2023 22:31:57 GMT -5
Hard no for me on India (literally THE worst fielding 2B in MLB) or Anderson (the next Marwin).
I think Kim would require an uncomfortable return, given how team-friendly his deal is.
Trading for Moncada would make the heads of people who argue that the Sale trade was bad explode.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 21, 2023 23:00:58 GMT -5
Unless they make a splash with Adames, I think Drury as a rental would be best. His bat fits the lineup better than most other options and his glove is passable.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 21, 2023 23:21:08 GMT -5
Unless they make a splash with Adames, I think Drury as a rental would be best. His bat fits the lineup better than most other options and his glove is passable. I'd be happy with either of those two although Drury has the higher variance, career wise. Has played all over the diamond, though, so can back up Raffy or Casas in the event of injury. Adames is an exciting possibility, paired with Story, and might catch a FA pitcher's eye.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 21, 2023 23:33:40 GMT -5
Unless they make a splash with Adames, I think Drury as a rental would be best. His bat fits the lineup better than most other options and his glove is passable. Tommy Edman the guy I want. Plus defender at 2B/SS or CF, decent arm. Switch hitter, low K rate, steals some bags.
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Post by jdb on Nov 22, 2023 8:30:49 GMT -5
Polanco on 1/11 with an 11 million club option doesn't seem like it should cost that much. I think the Twins prefer to trade Kyle Farmer who I'd be happy to nab and platoon with Valdez I like Farmer as well and let play Valdez play some. I think Drury would be a perfect upgrade but not sure LAA trades him. Seems like they are looking for some upgrades in the lineup trying to compete.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 8:49:29 GMT -5
Unless they make a splash with Adames, I think Drury as a rental would be best. His bat fits the lineup better than most other options and his glove is passable. Tommy Edman the guy I want. Plus defender at 2B/SS or CF, decent arm. Switch hitter, low K rate, steals some bags. I don’t want Edman. Not a good hitter, wasn’t good at 2B last year, had an outlier 2022, and is too expensive because of it. I said the same thing at the trade deadline so I already know many here like him, but there’s a reason Cards fans would rather trade him than Donovan even after surgery.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2023 10:26:47 GMT -5
Tommy Edman the guy I want. Plus defender at 2B/SS or CF, decent arm. Switch hitter, low K rate, steals some bags. I don’t want Edman. Not a good hitter, wasn’t good at 2B last year, had an outlier 2022, and is too expensive because of it. I said the same thing at the trade deadline so I already know many here like him, but there’s a reason Cards fans would rather trade him than Donovan even after surgery. For his career he's +21/+25 OAA/DRS at 2B. He's also +16/+10 at SS and +10/+3 at 3B. I feel pretty confident the slightly negative numbers at 2B last season are not predictive. He's been very consistent on offense too, between a .308 and .316 xwOBA every season since 2020 and 89-106 wRC+. He looks to me like about as much of a dead cinch for 2-3 WAR as any player can be. I love the roster fit too: he has a 117 wRC+ against lefties which pairs well with Valdez, and he can play a solid SS and 3B - and even OF. The roster is a little rigid defensively right now and a sort of rich man's Brock Holt is just what they could use.
Drury is more expensive and has a much worse Steamer projection (0.8 WAR vs Edman's 2.3). He's also 3 years older. The only reason I can see for preferring Drury is that he'd cost less in trade chips to acquire.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 22, 2023 11:36:14 GMT -5
I don’t want Edman. Not a good hitter, wasn’t good at 2B last year, had an outlier 2022, and is too expensive because of it. I said the same thing at the trade deadline so I already know many here like him, but there’s a reason Cards fans would rather trade him than Donovan even after surgery. For his career he's +21/+25 OAA/DRS at 2B. He's also +16/+10 at SS and +10/+3 at 3B. I feel pretty confident the slightly negative numbers at 2B last season are not predictive. He's been very consistent on offense too, between a .308 and .316 xwOBA every season since 2020 and 89-106 wRC+. He looks to me like about as much of a dead cinch for 2-3 WAR as any player can be. I love the roster fit too: he has a 117 wRC+ against lefties which pairs well with Valdez, and he can play a solid SS and 3B - and even OF. The roster is a little rigid defensively right now and a sort of rich man's Brock Holt is just what they could use.
Drury is more expensive and has a much worse Steamer projection (0.8 WAR vs Edman's 2.3). He's also 3 years older. The only reason I can see for preferring Drury is that he'd cost less in trade chips to acquire.
Steamer appears to think Drury is playing first base next year, which is the major source of the value difference. I can’t imagine he’s being projected as a huge defensive negative at second base after 2000 solid innings there for his career. I think they’re roughly equivalent as players, Drury hits the ball a bit harder while Edman is better defensively and strikes out less. I don’t think there’s a ton separating them, like you said I would lean Drury mostly because I assume he’ll cost less in a trade.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2023 12:04:37 GMT -5
For his career he's +21/+25 OAA/DRS at 2B. He's also +16/+10 at SS and +10/+3 at 3B. I feel pretty confident the slightly negative numbers at 2B last season are not predictive. He's been very consistent on offense too, between a .308 and .316 xwOBA every season since 2020 and 89-106 wRC+. He looks to me like about as much of a dead cinch for 2-3 WAR as any player can be. I love the roster fit too: he has a 117 wRC+ against lefties which pairs well with Valdez, and he can play a solid SS and 3B - and even OF. The roster is a little rigid defensively right now and a sort of rich man's Brock Holt is just what they could use.
Drury is more expensive and has a much worse Steamer projection (0.8 WAR vs Edman's 2.3). He's also 3 years older. The only reason I can see for preferring Drury is that he'd cost less in trade chips to acquire.
Steamer appears to think Drury is playing first base next year, which is the major source of the value difference. I canât imagine heâs being projected as a huge defensive negative at second base after 2000 solid innings there for his career. I think theyâre roughly equivalent as players, Drury hits the ball a bit harder while Edman is better defensively and strikes out less. I donât think thereâs a ton separating them, like you said I would lean Drury mostly because I assume heâll cost less in a trade. Ah, good catch on the Steamer projection. I think the defensive gap is pretty huge though. Drury is +12 OAA in the infield (and has scarcely played shortstop) and -6 in the outfield for his career. Edman is +47 in the infield and +10 in the outfield. Overall that's +6 vs. +57. The gap is actually even bigger by DRS, -34 vs. +45.
Remember how bad the defense was this past season? I'd really like to do something about that! The defensive gap swamps the pretty minimal offensive difference and Edman has the age advantage too. I'd be open to Drury if he comes substantially cheaper but just in a vacuum I lean pretty strongly toward Edman being both the better player and the better fit for the Red Sox roster.
Side note: thinking about this positional flexibility issue has the Urias trade making a little more sense to me. Seems like he can really only play 2B and 3B. A guy like what Kiké was *supposed* to be last season, who can handle SS and 2B as well as play in the OF, would be a lot more useful. Of course they still have to go and actually get a guy like that...
ADD: To be clear, I'd be perfectly happy if they got Drury. But, depending on the cost, I'd be thrilled if they got Edman.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 22, 2023 12:28:05 GMT -5
How much in trade for Kim? With SD wanting to cut payroll, what prospects would we give up? I know it's BTV, and I literally just plugged guys in. I'm no one who knows nothing BUT!!! Tanner Houck/Wikelman Gonzalez/Nick Yorke for Juan Soto and Ha-Seong Kim is accepted. Actually an ever slight overpay for us, but I'm not sure SD would see it that way. I have no ideal how they view our system, they might laugh or instantly pull the trigger on that one. Extend Soto, QO kim, and go get Yama/Montgomery. That's my dream scenario.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 13:11:02 GMT -5
I don’t want Edman. Not a good hitter, wasn’t good at 2B last year, had an outlier 2022, and is too expensive because of it. I said the same thing at the trade deadline so I already know many here like him, but there’s a reason Cards fans would rather trade him than Donovan even after surgery. For his career he's +21/+25 OAA/DRS at 2B. He's also +16/+10 at SS and +10/+3 at 3B. I feel pretty confident the slightly negative numbers at 2B last season are not predictive. He's been very consistent on offense too, between a .308 and .316 xwOBA every season since 2020 and 89-106 wRC+. He looks to me like about as much of a dead cinch for 2-3 WAR as any player can be. I love the roster fit too: he has a 117 wRC+ against lefties which pairs well with Valdez, and he can play a solid SS and 3B - and even OF. The roster is a little rigid defensively right now and a sort of rich man's Brock Holt is just what they could use. Drury is more expensive and has a much worse Steamer projection (0.8 WAR vs Edman's 2.3). He's also 3 years older. The only reason I can see for preferring Drury is that he'd cost less in trade chips to acquire.
His cost in prospects won’t be that of a defense first platoon 2B and that’s basically how I view him. And yes, the cost is precisely why I prefer Drury. I get the appeal of Edman, but I’m really just not interested in weakening the farm substantially for anyone with a .310 xwOBA.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2023 13:31:24 GMT -5
For his career he's +21/+25 OAA/DRS at 2B. He's also +16/+10 at SS and +10/+3 at 3B. I feel pretty confident the slightly negative numbers at 2B last season are not predictive. He's been very consistent on offense too, between a .308 and .316 xwOBA every season since 2020 and 89-106 wRC+. He looks to me like about as much of a dead cinch for 2-3 WAR as any player can be. I love the roster fit too: he has a 117 wRC+ against lefties which pairs well with Valdez, and he can play a solid SS and 3B - and even OF. The roster is a little rigid defensively right now and a sort of rich man's Brock Holt is just what they could use. Drury is more expensive and has a much worse Steamer projection (0.8 WAR vs Edman's 2.3). He's also 3 years older. The only reason I can see for preferring Drury is that he'd cost less in trade chips to acquire.
His cost in prospects won’t be that of a defense first platoon 2B and that’s basically how I view him. And yes, the cost is precisely why I prefer Drury. I get the appeal of Edman, but I’m really just not interested in weakening the farm substantially for anyone with a .310 xwOBA. Fair enough. Though I'm not sure Edman would be that expensive. It's only two years of control at, as you pointed out, fairly high arb salaries.
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