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asm18
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Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on May 20, 2024 21:10:46 GMT -5
Re: Bryan Mata - “Cora said the Red Sox are not necessarily looking at Mata as a starter but want to see what he can do in longer outings as a potential big league option in the coming weeks.” www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/05/red-sox-change-plans-for-ex-top-rhp-prospect-ahead-of-looming-roster-decision.htmlWas saying this in one of the game threads, but seems like Mata is being set up to take Chase Anderson’s spot of low-leverage bulk inning reliever (aka the blowout guy.) In theory Anderson is rotation depth, but after one terrible spot start they have never used Anderson in that role even when the option presented itself, instead utilizing bullpen games where Anderson might only occasionally play a part. For Mata that role makes a heck of a lot of sense for him - for a guy who had more walks than strikeouts in AAA last year but still hasn’t debut in MLB yet, a garbage time role where he can just sling it and you can test-drive him at the MLB level probably works to start off with.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 20, 2024 21:34:59 GMT -5
Mata is kind of like a Rule 5 pick for us at this point. He's probably not ready but he's gone as soon as he's off the big league roster. Might as well use the lowest leverage spot on him rather than Chase Anderson
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jun 1, 2024 10:41:56 GMT -5
Tanner Houck:
12 starts, 78 innings (6.5 innings per start)
1.98 ERA, 2.14 FIP
75 k’s, 15 walks (& 5 HBP)
It is June 1st.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 1, 2024 10:56:31 GMT -5
1.85 ERA, no? One thing about Houck is that - never mind this breakout season - for his *career* he has a 3.24 FIP and 7.4 fWAR in 330 IP. He's just been a really good pitcher since he arrived.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 7, 2024 16:30:05 GMT -5
As far as going forward can we almost just sit tight rotation wise for 2025?
Houck Bello Crawford Giolito Criswell
Then To various extents have Whitlock, Penrod, Fitts, and even Possibly Perales as depth
I feel as if unless it’s. Fried or Burnes signing I just don’t see how it would really be an improvement.
Thinking are in a very nice position rotation wise going forward
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 7, 2024 17:40:57 GMT -5
As far as going forward can we almost just sit tight rotation wise for 2025? Houck Bello Crawford Giolito Criswell Then To various extents have Whitlock, Penrod, Fitts, and even Possibly Perales as depth I feel as if unless it’s. Fried or Burnes signing I just don’t see how it would really be an improvement. Thinking are in a very nice position rotation wise going forward Yeah agree, right now outside of Fried, Burnes and obviously Sasaki if he’s posted not a lot of reason to be interested in FA pitchers. Personally right now though I think going into the season with Criswell penned in as the 6th starter (rather than in the rotation) is what they should aim for
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 7, 2024 20:07:36 GMT -5
As far as going forward can we almost just sit tight rotation wise for 2025? Houck Bello Crawford Giolito Criswell Then To various extents have Whitlock, Penrod, Fitts, and even Possibly Perales as depth I feel as if unless it’s. Fried or Burnes signing I just don’t see how it would really be an improvement. Thinking are in a very nice position rotation wise going forward Yeah agree, right now outside of Fried, Burnes and obviously Sasaki if he’s posted not a lot of reason to be interested in FA pitchers. Personally right now though I think going into the season with Criswell penned in as the 6th starter (rather than in the rotation) is what they should aim for Agreed on all fronts. I certainly wouldn’t be upset about signing Fried or Burnes (and maybe Pivetta, depending on how much his age keeps his contract size down), but if they’re looking to make a splash in free agency, it’s pretty clear to me that the best move would be to give Soto his megadeal and then flip one of the current outfielders as part of a package for a pitcher. With what seems likely to be the last truly game-changing FA for a while and the best prospect in the system both being outfielders, it just makes sense. With Woo looking more than ready for a big league role and their outfield being a bottom-5 unit in baseball so far this season, I wonder if Seattle would be more willing to listen on Logan Gilbert as he heads into arbitration. Or maybe with Nola and Wheeler on big money for the next several years, Dombrowski sees Suarez’s final arb year as his best chip for picking up a controllable outfielder to replace Castellanos. To bring this post back on topic, the fact that we can even consider the idea that starting pitching shouldn’t be the major focus in free agency is a testament to just how good the rotation has been. My friends made fun of me for saying there was a non-zero chance that Jordan Montgomery would be the worst pitcher in the rotation if the Red Sox signed him, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. I certainly didn’t expect Tanner Houck to be leading the league in innings and pitching fWAR while Montgomery was running a near-7 ERA at the end of the first week of June! Really impressed with everyone involved this year, from the coaches to the players to the support staff. Really impressive work all around.
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Post by keninten on Jun 8, 2024 2:33:11 GMT -5
Is it possible to see whom we voted for in this poll?
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 8, 2024 8:05:14 GMT -5
Yeah agree, right now outside of Fried, Burnes and obviously Sasaki if he’s posted not a lot of reason to be interested in FA pitchers. Personally right now though I think going into the season with Criswell penned in as the 6th starter (rather than in the rotation) is what they should aim for Agreed on all fronts. I certainly wouldn’t be upset about signing Fried or Burnes (and maybe Pivetta, depending on how much his age keeps his contract size down), but if they’re looking to make a splash in free agency, it’s pretty clear to me that the best move would be to give Soto his megadeal and then flip one of the current outfielders as part of a package for a pitcher. With what seems likely to be the last truly game-changing FA for a while and the best prospect in the system both being outfielders, it just makes sense. With Woo looking more than ready for a big league role and their outfield being a bottom-5 unit in baseball so far this season, I wonder if Seattle would be more willing to listen on Logan Gilbert as he heads into arbitration. Or maybe with Nola and Wheeler on big money for the next several years, Dombrowski sees Suarez’s final arb year as his best chip for picking up a controllable outfielder to replace Castellanos. To bring this post back on topic, the fact that we can even consider the idea that starting pitching shouldn’t be the major focus in free agency is a testament to just how good the rotation has been. My friends made fun of me for saying there was a non-zero chance that Jordan Montgomery would be the worst pitcher in the rotation if the Red Sox signed him, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. I certainly didn’t expect Tanner Houck to be leading the league in innings and pitching fWAR while Montgomery was running a near-7 ERA at the end of the first week of June! Really impressed with everyone involved this year, from the coaches to the players to the support staff. Really impressive work all around. I ventured about Duran for Woo in the offseason that is off the table. i know I hate on Duran but he is still the most likely to be traded in my eyes, but he is still not enough for someone like Gilbert maybe Duran, Sandlin, and Yorke would do it Which I’d probably do given who we have and who that would allow us to keep Houck Gilbert Crawford Bello Giolito is for sure a WS caliber rotation
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Post by manfred on Jun 8, 2024 10:58:01 GMT -5
Agreed on all fronts. I certainly wouldn’t be upset about signing Fried or Burnes (and maybe Pivetta, depending on how much his age keeps his contract size down), but if they’re looking to make a splash in free agency, it’s pretty clear to me that the best move would be to give Soto his megadeal and then flip one of the current outfielders as part of a package for a pitcher. With what seems likely to be the last truly game-changing FA for a while and the best prospect in the system both being outfielders, it just makes sense. With Woo looking more than ready for a big league role and their outfield being a bottom-5 unit in baseball so far this season, I wonder if Seattle would be more willing to listen on Logan Gilbert as he heads into arbitration. Or maybe with Nola and Wheeler on big money for the next several years, Dombrowski sees Suarez’s final arb year as his best chip for picking up a controllable outfielder to replace Castellanos. To bring this post back on topic, the fact that we can even consider the idea that starting pitching shouldn’t be the major focus in free agency is a testament to just how good the rotation has been. My friends made fun of me for saying there was a non-zero chance that Jordan Montgomery would be the worst pitcher in the rotation if the Red Sox signed him, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. I certainly didn’t expect Tanner Houck to be leading the league in innings and pitching fWAR while Montgomery was running a near-7 ERA at the end of the first week of June! Really impressed with everyone involved this year, from the coaches to the players to the support staff. Really impressive work all around. I ventured about Duran for Woo in the offseason that is off the table. i know I hate on Duran but he is still the most likely to be traded in my eyes, but he is still not enough for someone like Gilbert maybe Duran, Sandlin, and Yorke would do it Which I’d probably do given who we have and who that would allow us to keep Houck Gilbert Crawford Bello Giolito is for sure a WS caliber rotation Why trade Duran? He is one of their best players and still improving. Plus, his defense (who thought this would be a thing?) helps make the pitchers better.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jun 8, 2024 11:43:50 GMT -5
I ventured about Duran for Woo in the offseason that is off the table. i know I hate on Duran but he is still the most likely to be traded in my eyes, but he is still not enough for someone like Gilbert maybe Duran, Sandlin, and Yorke would do it Which I’d probably do given who we have and who that would allow us to keep Houck Gilbert Crawford Bello Giolito is for sure a WS caliber rotation Why trade Duran? He is one of their best players and still improving. Plus, his defense (who thought this would be a thing?) helps make the pitchers better. Durran is on pace for 5.75 fWAR and -8- bWAR. Under control til he's 32. Why are people trying to trade him still?
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 8, 2024 11:52:13 GMT -5
Why trade Duran? He is one of their best players and still improving. Plus, his defense (who thought this would be a thing?) helps make the pitchers better. Durran is on pace for 5.75 fWAR and -8- bWAR. Under control til he's 32. Why are people trying to trade him still? Well you do have to give in order to get in trades and Duran probably could return a good player. Not necessarily saying I want to trade duran but wouldn't be all that upset if they did for a good pitcher or something.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 8, 2024 14:08:55 GMT -5
Why does everyone think Giolito will be a solid starting pitcher next year? His 2022 and 2023 years resulted in ERA's in the very high 4's and he is coming off of a major arm surgery. I would not be counting on him next year. If he does come back and pitch well, it would be a bonus but i would have 5 other starters ready to start the year. Agreed on all fronts. I certainly wouldn’t be upset about signing Fried or Burnes (and maybe Pivetta, depending on how much his age keeps his contract size down), but if they’re looking to make a splash in free agency, it’s pretty clear to me that the best move would be to give Soto his megadeal and then flip one of the current outfielders as part of a package for a pitcher. With what seems likely to be the last truly game-changing FA for a while and the best prospect in the system both being outfielders, it just makes sense. With Woo looking more than ready for a big league role and their outfield being a bottom-5 unit in baseball so far this season, I wonder if Seattle would be more willing to listen on Logan Gilbert as he heads into arbitration. Or maybe with Nola and Wheeler on big money for the next several years, Dombrowski sees Suarez’s final arb year as his best chip for picking up a controllable outfielder to replace Castellanos. To bring this post back on topic, the fact that we can even consider the idea that starting pitching shouldn’t be the major focus in free agency is a testament to just how good the rotation has been. My friends made fun of me for saying there was a non-zero chance that Jordan Montgomery would be the worst pitcher in the rotation if the Red Sox signed him, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. I certainly didn’t expect Tanner Houck to be leading the league in innings and pitching fWAR while Montgomery was running a near-7 ERA at the end of the first week of June! Really impressed with everyone involved this year, from the coaches to the players to the support staff. Really impressive work all around. I ventured about Duran for Woo in the offseason that is off the table. i know I hate on Duran but he is still the most likely to be traded in my eyes, but he is still not enough for someone like Gilbert maybe Duran, Sandlin, and Yorke would do it Which I’d probably do given who we have and who that would allow us to keep Houck Gilbert Crawford Bello Giolito is for sure a WS caliber rotation
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 17, 2024 9:59:11 GMT -5
As a fun thought exercise...
If you had the choice to click a button and have the Sox acquire either of the following players with their current contracts, would you do it?
1. Jordan Montgomery (PO for $25MM in 2025) 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11 years, $316MM remaining)
Pitching is a volatile beast. The missed opportunity of the offseason appears to have been Shota Imanaga.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2024 10:31:24 GMT -5
As a fun thought exercise... If you had the choice to click a button and have the Sox acquire either of the following players with their current contracts, would you do it? 1. Jordan Montgomery (PO for $25MM in 2025) 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11 years, $316MM remaining) Pitching is a volatile beast. The missed opportunity of the offseason appears to have been Shota Imanaga. Yes on Yamamoto. He's pitched like the potential Cy Young winner he was advertised as and he's still only 25. What if he gets hurt? Well, what if any pitcher gets hurt. But you have to put your chips on somebody, and rotator cuff sprain or no I don't see a more promising wager out there.
Given that he now has a track record of success in the majors I'd actually say his value is only higher now than when he signed the contract.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 17, 2024 11:22:17 GMT -5
He was the one, it is true. But with all the injuries across the league (and with our own 40% of the rotation Giolito, Whitlock issues) it becomes clearer that $300M for a SP isn’t good roster building; pays a few top dogs ridiculous $$ at the expense of paying and keeping the other 25 guys.
On the other hand, it is becoming clear the Sox are well set for the foreseeable future at most positions. I would rather many of these kids sign decent contracts while still upgrading in areas of need. The old Theo argument for having/paying for the balance of average to above average players at every position. Imanaga would have fit into this concept perfectly.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2024 11:38:58 GMT -5
He was the one, it is true. But with all the injuries across the league (and with our own 40% of the rotation Giolito, Whitlock issues) it becomes clearer that $300M for a SP isn’t good roster building; pays a few top dogs ridiculous $$ at the expense of paying and keeping the other 25 guys. On the other hand, it is becoming clear the Sox are well set for the foreseeable future at most positions. I would rather many of these kids sign decent contracts while still upgrading in areas of need. The old Theo argument for having/paying for the balance of average to above average players at every position. Imanaga would have fit into this concept perfectly. I think it's totally defensible to just fill out your rotation solely with home-grown talent and mid-tier FAs on short-term contracts.
But if they're to sign a top-tier pitcher - and I think they should - then Yamamoto is the one I would've wanted. Like, I would love it if they sign Corbin Burnes this offseason. But would I prefer Burnes at 8/240 for ages 30-37 (if it's not more than that), or Yamamoto at 12/325 for ages 25-36? Yamamoto, no question.
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 17, 2024 13:09:29 GMT -5
He was the one, it is true. But with all the injuries across the league (and with our own 40% of the rotation Giolito, Whitlock issues) it becomes clearer that $300M for a SP isn’t good roster building; pays a few top dogs ridiculous $$ at the expense of paying and keeping the other 25 guys. On the other hand, it is becoming clear the Sox are well set for the foreseeable future at most positions. I would rather many of these kids sign decent contracts while still upgrading in areas of need. The old Theo argument for having/paying for the balance of average to above average players at every position. Imanaga would have fit into this concept perfectly. I think it's totally defensible to just fill out your rotation solely with home-grown talent and mid-tier FAs on short-term contracts.
But if they're to sign a top-tier pitcher - and I think they should - then Yamamoto is the one I would've wanted. Like, I would love it if they sign Corbin Burnes this offseason. But would I prefer Burnes at 8/240 for ages 30-37 (if it's not more than that), or Yamamoto at 12/325 for ages 25-36? Yamamoto, no question.
This is exactly why I think it makes even more sense to swing big for Soto—it opens up the possibility of trading from their trove of young outfielders to acquire a stud young pitcher. For all the money it’ll take to sign Soto, I’d rather bet on a 25 year old with generational plate discipline and elite batted ball metrics than two starting pitchers in their 30s.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 17, 2024 13:22:06 GMT -5
You only get Yamamoto for 6/155 if he's awesome. You get him for 12/325 when he's not awesome.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jun 21, 2024 17:12:00 GMT -5
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 23, 2024 18:45:24 GMT -5
Was tracking discussion of Zack Kelly on twitter earlier today and wanted to get the opinions of the group.
Could Kelly potentially develop into a starter for '25?
With the success of his sweeper, he seems to have the velocity, secondary pitches, and physical maturation needed to handle innings.
Following this same logic, could Justin Slaten?
RHP relief depth is abundant in the organization and the value created by developing controllable starting pitching is huge. The Sox are already doing it to a degree by prioritizing Winckowski's transition into starting over the marginal improvement he'd deliver over Keller/Anderson.
I can relate to others with flashbacks to Daniel Bard and worries of Whitlock 2.0, but I think these two guys (Kelly and Slaten) have enough of the pre-requisites to at least explore the topic.
What do y'all think?
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 23, 2024 19:29:16 GMT -5
Was tracking discussion of Zack Kelly on twitter earlier today and wanted to get the opinions of the group. Could Kelly potentially develop into a starter for '25? With the success of his sweeper, he seems to have the velocity, secondary pitches, and physical maturation needed to handle innings. Following this same logic, could Justin Slaten? RHP relief depth is abundant in the organization and the value created by developing controllable starting pitching is huge. The Sox are already doing it to a degree by prioritizing Winckowski's transition into starting over the marginal improvement he'd deliver over Keller/Anderson. I can relate to others with flashbacks to Daniel Bard and worries of Whitlock 2.0, but I think these two guys (Kelly and Slaten) have enough of the pre-requisites to at least explore the topic. What do y'all think? I think both could be effective starters. You need to understand were going to be without Martin and Kenley next year so I'd prefer giving them a look at set up man and closer if anything. We're losing 2 high end guys so I'd like to keep them in the pen and extend their workload there. Houck Giolito Crawford Bello seemed to be locks and I'd love it if we traded for Crochet or Flahery. If not Fitts will need to be added for rule 5 purposes so I'm thinking worst case you have Fitts and Criswell battling for that 5th spot. Don't forget were also stretching out Winckowski and he's looked very good as well. Thats 7 starters for 5 spots so even with an injury you're covered. Kelly and Slaten are going to be extremely important in that pen.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 24, 2024 2:46:38 GMT -5
I dunno. I assume Whitlock fills that Rotation out. I am hoping for a Pivetta extension. We have to love the depth of Criswell, Winck, Fitts, more prospects. That’s a good rotation with above average depth without even considering Kelly or Slaten as SP.
Also, would you be very surprised if Breslow traded for some really good SP in a month or so? Or that some more RP’s like Kelly are stretched out? Me neither.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 24, 2024 4:47:01 GMT -5
I would figure they'd be stretched out, certainly at least slaten anyway. They'll probably have an uphill battle to claim a rotation spot though with 4/5 of the 2025 rotation pretty much set, health permitting anyway and I think it likely they make a run at burnes/fried/Sasaki or look to add another SP via trade either at deadline or in offseason.
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Post by wanderingdude on Jun 24, 2024 14:00:36 GMT -5
I wouldn’t really want either trying to make it as starter’s but Slaten would have the upper hand for me. I don’t think Kelly is nearly consistent enough at throwing strikes to attempt it.
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