ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 29, 2023 5:29:05 GMT -5
I remember Heymen saying Max Scherzer will sign with west coast team only because of family reason but he signed with the Mets. Yamamoto will go where the money is they always do.False. For instance ...
The Red Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent. They wanted to use him at SS for a year until
Bill Mueller's contract was up.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 29, 2023 13:07:57 GMT -5
I remember Heymen saying Max Scherzer will sign with west coast team only because of family reason but he signed with the Mets. Yamamoto will go where the money is they always do.False. For instance ... The Red Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent. They wanted to use him at SS for a year until
Bill Mueller's contract was up. Why the heck did we let him leave? If he stays, Youk stays at 1b. We don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez or sign Pablo Sandoval. Oy vey
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 13:14:18 GMT -5
They did get Jackie Bradley (and Blake Swihart) with the draft compensation for letting Beltre walk, so that's something.
Honestly, whoda thunk he'd put up 32 WAR from ages 32 to 37?
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 29, 2023 21:47:37 GMT -5
They did get Jackie Bradley (and Blake Swihart) with the draft compensation for letting Beltre walk, so that's something. Honestly, whoda thunk he'd put up 32 WAR from ages 32 to 37? Cant predict aging. In those same years bradley a negative playing. Roling the dice
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0ap0
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 29, 2023 23:12:55 GMT -5
You can totally predict aging. You'll just get it wrong some of the time.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 30, 2023 6:52:05 GMT -5
I remember Heymen saying Max Scherzer will sign with west coast team only because of family reason but he signed with the Mets. Yamamoto will go where the money is they always do.False. For instance ...
The Red Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent. They wanted to use him at SS for a year until
Bill Mueller's contract was up.
So the rule is: guys go where the money is, they always do, unless the team offering the most money wants you to play a position you don't like, which you wind up playing only 7 games there in 21 years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2023 7:03:33 GMT -5
Players usually go where the biggest bucks are unless they have a preferred location and the dollars offered are close enough to the highest offer. That's the rule of thumb I go by.
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Post by jdb on Nov 30, 2023 8:15:46 GMT -5
With the number of teams interested, especially big market teams who need pitching, I think he’s getting over $250.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 30, 2023 9:21:15 GMT -5
If Yamamoto is nearly as good as they say he can be $25 million a year for a starting pitcher is a bargain, and will look even better 4 years from now when he's still in his 20's.
I know it's a risk, but I'd be excited if he came here on a $250/10 years.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 30, 2023 9:22:15 GMT -5
With the number of teams interested, especially big market teams who need pitching, I think he’s getting over $250. Yep it's sounding like something in or around 10/250 if not north of that is what it is going to take. I don't know, I'd like to see him in the Sox rotation for the foreseeable future but I'm also still hesitant to the idea of giving anyone who has never pitched in the majors that type of contract at the same time. Then again it's not my money so what do I care how much of John Henry's money goes in his pocket. That being said, I also kind of like the idea of Montgomery and Imanga combo which you can probably get for roughly the same total $s that Yamamoto gets.
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bg23
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Post by bg23 on Nov 30, 2023 9:46:41 GMT -5
With the number of teams interested, especially big market teams who need pitching, I think he’s getting over $250. Yep it's sounding like something in or around 10/250 if not north of that is what it is going to take. I don't know, I'd like to see him in the Sox rotation for the foreseeable future but I'm also still hesitant to the idea of giving anyone who has never pitched in the majors that type of contract at the same time. Then again it's not my money so what do I care how much of John Henry's money goes in his pocket. That being said, I also kind of like the idea of Montgomery and Imanga combo which you can probably get for roughly the same total $s that Yamamoto gets. What I like most about Yamamoto is his fit with the timeline of the team. The window for World Series contender seems like it might open with the Anthony/Mayer/Teel crop of players, and Yamamoto would still be in his prime at that point. I like both Imanaga and Montgomery, but based on their age they will start to decline by the time the team is likely ascending to true contender status. If the Sox end up with those two instead of Yamamoto I wouldn’t be upset. The timeline fit just isn’t quite there.
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0ap0
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 30, 2023 10:29:10 GMT -5
I don't know much about anything, but if we sign him for something in the neighborhood of 250/10-260/11 and he ends up pitching like Dice-K I wouldn't be mad.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Nov 30, 2023 20:42:54 GMT -5
I don't know much about anything, but if we sign him for something in the neighborhood of 250/10-260/11 and he ends up pitching like Dice-K I wouldn't be mad. There's a pitch clock now. #flashbacks #heartpalpitations
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Post by asm19 on Dec 4, 2023 19:21:28 GMT -5
It’s Bowden so take with a huge grain of salt, but if the offers for Yamamoto are legitimately getting to the $300 dollar range (cough Mets cough) that seems legitimately crazy. Do we have reason to believe he’s going to be a truly transcendent pitcher? Steamer projects Yamamoto for 171.1 innings, 3.57 ERA, 3.7 WAR next year, which is certainly good but not like supernatural. I know he’s young and that’s part of the appeal (because 25 years are immune to elbow injuries), but I can’t imagine a non-Steve Cohen team going up that high?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 4, 2023 19:26:22 GMT -5
I don't know much about anything, but if we sign him for something in the neighborhood of 250/10-260/11 and he ends up pitching like Dice-K I wouldn't be mad. They need to eventually bite the bullet and sign someone to anchor this rotation.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 4, 2023 19:27:16 GMT -5
It’s Bowden so take with a huge grain of salt, but if the offers for Yamamoto are legitimately getting to the $300 dollar range (cough Mets cough) that seems legitimately crazy. Do we have reason to believe he’s going to be a truly transcendent pitcher? Steamer projects Yamamoto for 171.1 innings, 3.57 ERA, 3.7 WAR next year, which is certainly good but not like supernatural. I know he’s young and that’s part of the appeal (because 25 years are immune to elbow injuries), but I can’t imagine a non-Steve Cohen team going up that high? If he gets $300M then I hope it’s from the Yankees honestly. The odds are against him living up to that deal
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 4, 2023 19:35:32 GMT -5
Zero interest in YY at these prices
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Post by asm19 on Dec 4, 2023 19:40:58 GMT -5
It’s Bowden so take with a huge grain of salt, but if the offers for Yamamoto are legitimately getting to the $300 dollar range (cough Mets cough) that seems legitimately crazy. Do we have reason to believe he’s going to be a truly transcendent pitcher? Steamer projects Yamamoto for 171.1 innings, 3.57 ERA, 3.7 WAR next year, which is certainly good but not like supernatural. I know he’s young and that’s part of the appeal (because 25 years are immune to elbow injuries), but I can’t imagine a non-Steve Cohen team going up that high? If he gets $300M then I hope it’s from the Yankees honestly. The odds are against him living up to that deal I still have yet to to see many sober assessments of Yamamoto that don’t go out of their way to cite that he’s 25. It’s cool that he’s 25! I’d rather be be in his mid twenties than Wade Miley’s age. But are we evaluating him based on how good he is, or because of a birth year that might ultimately be irrelevant to the whims of the Baseball Gods, who rain Tommy John on old and young alike? This is a more of a theoretical question, but if all the free agent starters available only had 3-5 years of good health left, is Yamamoto the one you want most?
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Dec 4, 2023 19:45:49 GMT -5
If he gets $300M then I hope it’s from the Yankees honestly. The odds are against him living up to that deal I still have yet to to see many sober assessments of Yamamoto that don’t go out of their way to cite that he’s 25. It’s cool that he’s 25! I’d rather be be in his mid twenties than Wade Miley’s age. But are we evaluating him based on how good he is, or because of a birth year that might ultimately be irrelevant to the whims of the Baseball Gods, who rain Tommy John on old and young alike? This is a more of a theoretical question, but if all the free agent starters available only had 3-5 years of good health left, is Yamamoto the one you want most? Yes
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 4, 2023 19:53:55 GMT -5
I don't really even get how Yamamoto's hype has gotten so out of control. He's 5'10, doesn't have otherwordly stuff or anything, doesn't strike out that many guys and fans have seen him pitch somewhere between zero and two times.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 4, 2023 20:21:36 GMT -5
Yamamoto is coming off 3 straight seasons of winning the pitcher of the year and player of the year awards in Japan - so he is quite good. He has better numbers than Dice-K had before he came over and will be 13 months younger.
Using that steamer projection of 3.7, if he declines by 0.5 WAR each year starting at age 31 then he will be worth 32 fWAR on a 10 year contract.
Comparatively, if Jordan Montgomery lives up to his 3.2 WAR projection at age 31 and also declines by 0.5 WAR each year, he will be worth 11.9 fWAR on a 7 year contract.
There's significantly more risk with Yamamoto, and we shouldn't completely count on a projection system, but I think that illustrates why there's so much hype and why it's so important that he's 25. It's because typically pitchers begin to decline around the age of 31.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 4, 2023 20:31:10 GMT -5
I don't really even get how Yamamoto's hype has gotten so out of control. He's 5'10, doesn't have otherwordly stuff or anything, doesn't strike out that many guys and fans have seen him pitch somewhere between zero and two times. The lack of Ks and impossibly low HR% are real reasons to pump the breaks before anointing him a star. A lot of the people so ready for the Red Sox to throw $250M would be complaining about him by the end of April if he had a 4.50 ERA, and that wouldn’t be all that surprising. The flip side of the coin is that there’s a real possibility and arguably a likelihood that Nola, Snell, and Montgomery all fall short of their deals on a basis of WAR, and Yamamoto one way or another has dominated for years in Japan now. Still, $300M is a crazy figure IMO.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 4, 2023 20:44:31 GMT -5
$300 seems nuts, I’d just go get Imanaga for so much less and let the plus fastball ride
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Post by asm19 on Dec 4, 2023 20:51:22 GMT -5
I don't really even get how Yamamoto's hype has gotten so out of control. He's 5'10, doesn't have otherwordly stuff or anything, doesn't strike out that many guys and fans have seen him pitch somewhere between zero and two times.Well that’s kinda the rub, ain’t it? Yamamoto is a bit of a mystery box because if you’re in Boston and haven’t been waking up at 4 am to see the Orix Buffaloes play, your knowledge of him comes from his stats/pedigree (as wcsoxfan rightly notes - 3 straight Japanese Sawamura Awards!) or from like 30 second highlights on social media. Blake Snell has won two MLB CY Young’s but he’s been around long enough that we know his weaknesses (walks, innings) in a way that Yamamoto has not faced that type of scrutiny. (To be perfectly clear, I do expect Yamamoto to be good!)
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 4, 2023 20:52:03 GMT -5
I personally think Yamamoto will be very good and also that there are better ways to allocate $300M
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