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2024 Pre-season analyses - ZiPs projections, etc.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 8, 2024 13:50:57 GMT -5
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 8, 2024 14:00:09 GMT -5
The problem I have with this, which I have said many, many times, is that if the Red Sox truly believe what you are saying here then their farm system is not good enough right now. I like all of our prospects and I hope they will be good, but the bust rate on prospects is so high that I don't think having 4 top 100 guys is acceptable. For every Mookie, Xander or Devers that the Red Sox produce you still get guys like Swihart, Owens, Moncada and Benintendi. All of those guys were top 25 prospects in baseball at one time. Jeter Downs was a top 50 prospect heading into 2020 and the #2 prospect on this site at one point. Jay Groome was a top 50 prospect in 2017.
I'm not saying that Mayer, Anthony or Teel will wind up being busts, but people are getting way ahead of themselves by penciling these guys in to the starting lineup in 2025. If we had 6 or 7 top 100 guys then I think it's fair to assume at least a few of them will pan out, but 4 doesn't really inspire much confidence.
This is my point exactly - even top 100 prospects have something like a 25% chance of becoming an MLB-average or better. To base your whole strategy - or a large part - on waiting for them and their success is, at least based on historical data, a fool's gamble. Its not all down to random chance, though, is it? The best teams in baseball are the ones that consistently beat those odds, which I would imagine is down to 1) superior data teams who can use the massive amounts of data that are now available to identify a prospect’s strengths and weaknesses, which helps them better project how a prospect will translate to MLB. This feeds into 2) using that data to help prospects work on changes that will help maximize their chances of making it in the big leagues, using superior coaching/development techniques. Player development has historically been a bit of a black box, but it’s become a lot more scientific in recent years. It seems pretty clear to me that the Red Sox are banking on seeing big returns from heavy investment in that side of the organization.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 8, 2024 14:03:59 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Feb 8, 2024 14:17:41 GMT -5
A couple people made the point already, but I just want to emphasize: building around home-grown talent is NOT just a question of sitting around and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel. The young talent already in or just arriving to the majors is actually pretty phenomenal. Like, look at this:
C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom/Valdez 3B - Devers SS - Rafaela LF - Duran/Abreu CF - Rafaela/Duran/Abreu RF - Abreu
SP1 - Bello SP2 - Crawford SP3 - Houck SP4 - Whitlock SP5 - Winckowski, maybe
Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better.* That's pretty wild! Not only could you not say this of the last several years - you couldn't say this of the 2018 team. Or any other Red Sox roster that I can recall.
*maybe not Wong, but I think the projections are too low on him, and in any case Teel is probably the safest bet of any prospect in the system to make it as at least an average major leaguer and he's probably only a year away
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Post by incandenza on Feb 8, 2024 14:32:02 GMT -5
The comparison between the checklist and writeups of the Red Sox and Tigers is amusing.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 8, 2024 14:49:58 GMT -5
The comparison between the checklist and writeups of the Red Sox and Tigers is amusing. There are quite a few Ds, and at least one F!
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 8, 2024 14:53:17 GMT -5
The comparison between the checklist and writeups of the Red Sox and Tigers is amusing. Red Sox: 78 wins, "most last place finishes of any team, unclear when their window is" Tigers: 78 wins, "most wins since 2016, ready to contend". 🤡 The circlejerk continues, unfortunately.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 8, 2024 18:33:16 GMT -5
I think I'd take the over on 78 wins. Among other things with a younger team there is a reduced chance of injury (as probably most everyone on this site can attest. That and the fact that the rotation is really not worse than last year except for a partial season of Paxton and a very few Sale outings along with the fact there is significant upside potential for Story, Yoshida and Sale to go along with the natural maturation of Casas, Wong (maybe) and the addition of O'Neill and Grissom just makes for a better balanced offense with a stronger bullpen than last year. Not saying they are on the way to a pennant, just that the over/under at 78 seems asymmetric towards the over.
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Post by dcb26 on Feb 8, 2024 19:47:38 GMT -5
A couple people made the point already, but I just want to emphasize: building around home-grown talent is NOT just a question of sitting around and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel. The young talent already in or just arriving to the majors is actually pretty phenomenal. Like, look at this: C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom/Valdez 3B - Devers SS - Rafaela LF - Duran/Abreu CF - Rafaela/Duran/Abreu RF - Abreu SP1 - Bello SP2 - Crawford SP3 - Houck SP4 - Whitlock SP5 - Winckowski, maybe Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better.* That's pretty wild! Not only could you not say this of the last several years - you couldn't say this of the 2018 team. Or any other Red Sox roster that I can recall.
*maybe not Wong, but I think the projections are too low on him, and in any case Teel is probably the safest bet of any prospect in the system to make it as at least an average major leaguer and he's probably only a year away
This point needs to be emphasized more often. I will add that having this many cost-controlled interesting-to-better players also allows the Sox to trade some of them while maintaining a cost-controlled core. If the Sox should be "waiting" on anything, I think its that - having an actual surplus of cheap, functional talent that they can trade from to improve specific areas of the team, without depleting the farm system. I'm not advocating some sort of "trade all the prospects approach" but just noting that this sort of system depth should allow them to start making trades to supplement the team and not depend solely on FA signings in order to target specific needs. I also thought they were going to do more of that this offseason, that they would sign a couple of FA who would make a couple of these guys redundant and use them in trades to further improve the team, but still think its the right approach long term.
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 8, 2024 21:41:50 GMT -5
Vegas odds for win totals(per Fanduel)…
Yankees 93.5 Orioles 91.5 Blue Jays 87.5 Rays 85.5 Red Sox 79.5
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 9, 2024 8:19:21 GMT -5
The comparison between the checklist and writeups of the Red Sox and Tigers is amusing. Red Sox: 78 wins, "most last place finishes of any team, unclear when their window is" Tigers: 78 wins, "most wins since 2016, ready to contend". 🤡 The circlejerk continues, unfortunately. That's the difference of being in the East and the Central.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 9, 2024 12:54:34 GMT -5
Red Sox: 78 wins, "most last place finishes of any team, unclear when their window is" Tigers: 78 wins, "most wins since 2016, ready to contend". 🤡 The circlejerk continues, unfortunately. That's the difference of being in the East and the Central.
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Post by manfred on Feb 9, 2024 12:58:50 GMT -5
Vegas odds for win totals(per Fanduel)… Yankees 93.5 Orioles 91.5 Blue Jays 87.5 Rays 85.5 Red Sox 79.5 I find the over on the Sox nearly irresistible.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 9, 2024 15:15:08 GMT -5
This is my point exactly - even top 100 prospects have something like a 25% chance of becoming an MLB-average or better. To base your whole strategy - or a large part - on waiting for them and their success is, at least based on historical data, a fool's gamble. Its not all down to random chance, though, is it? The best teams in baseball are the ones that consistently beat those odds, which I would imagine is down to 1) superior data teams who can use the massive amounts of data that are now available to identify a prospect’s strengths and weaknesses, which helps them better project how a prospect will translate to MLB. This feeds into 2) using that data to help prospects work on changes that will help maximize their chances of making it in the big leagues, using superior coaching/development techniques. Player development has historically been a bit of a black box, but it’s become a lot more scientific in recent years. It seems pretty clear to me that the Red Sox are banking on seeing big returns from heavy investment in that side of the organization. I'm not saying it's random chance, though. I'm just looking at data a priors overall. Part of me would argue that the Sox may have a better chance of these particular guys becoming MLB average because they've had sustained success with position player development. But some of this is out of their control (i.e. injuries; guys just not displaying the ability to make that adjustment in MLB to become average or better). And the jump from AAA to MLB has gotten much more pronounced in the last few years. Those are all data points. They can become outliers, but banking on that is very risky.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Feb 10, 2024 15:30:00 GMT -5
I just can't get past the fact that this team with this ownership group has decided to eschew building a team that can win the AL East AGAIN and is instead asking us to bank on some non-specific future date when certain prospects reach MLB and become above average MLB players. They're asking this while acting as if the other teams in the AL East don't have either significant (and even better) prospect depth or financial resources or both. I mean, are we the frogs in the boiling water here? Must this lament, or some variant, show up in every thread, ad nauseum, regardless the topic? This is not a rhetorical, btw.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 10, 2024 22:34:52 GMT -5
A couple people made the point already, but I just want to emphasize: building around home-grown talent is NOT just a question of sitting around and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel. The young talent already in or just arriving to the majors is actually pretty phenomenal. Like, look at this: C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom/Valdez 3B - Devers SS - Rafaela LF - Duran/Abreu CF - Rafaela/Duran/Abreu RF - Abreu SP1 - Bello SP2 - Crawford SP3 - Houck SP4 - Whitlock SP5 - Winckowski, maybe Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better.* That's pretty wild! Not only could you not say this of the last several years - you couldn't say this of the 2018 team. Or any other Red Sox roster that I can recall.
*maybe not Wong, but I think the projections are too low on him, and in any case Teel is probably the safest bet of any prospect in the system to make it as at least an average major leaguer and he's probably only a year away
An MLB Average player is a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player (I think we discussed this a while back, and it was mentioned in the rankings systems for projections, too, for FV.) Here’s the Zips projections for the above guys: Devers 3.6 (655 PAs) Casas 1.9 (502) Rafaela 1.9 (557) Duran 1.5 (415) Abreu 1.5 (474) Wong 0.8 (373) Valdez 1.4 (457) Grissom 1.8 (560 ABs) That’s exactly one MLB Average guy or better on offense. We could finagle CF with some sort of platoon to maybe get a 2.5 player, but Rafaela’s 1.9 is already projected to be 557 PAs, so we’re only looking at about 100 PAs for someone to be a 0.6 fWAR player. Doable but not easy, and with Duran projected to be 1.5 on 415 ABs and Abreu to be 1.5 on 447 PAs it will be tight. But let’s say they pull it off and give the position 2.5. And that’s 1 MLB Average or better guy and maybe 1 MLB Average position if, again, we can squeeze a 0.6 fWAR out pf the other 100 PAs going to Yoshida/DH We can use ZiPS for the pitchers but, as has been noted, fWAR not the best measure of them so let’s use projected ERA and FIP (there’s no ZiPS for xERA and xFIP) Bello 147 innings 4.28 ERA/4.03 FIP* Crawford 106 innings 4.49 ERA/4.20 FIP Houck 103 innings 4.62 ERA/4.34 FIP Whitlock 89innings 3.63.ERA/3.49 FIP Winckowski 99 Innings 4.36 ERA/4.10FIP For the sake of argument, ZiPS has Bello at 2.6 which would make him MLB average. For further context, out of the 58 pitchers who threw 150 or more innings last year, Bello was 40th in ERA/30th in xERA/49th in FIP/33rd in xFIP So given the above, at least by ZIPS and fWAR, the Sox have probably 2 MLB Average or better players on that list (Devers and Bello) 1 MLB Average or better platoon position. We may get a big leap forward for Casas, and Duran could repeat or exceed last year’s performance. Some pitchers could also exceed expectations. But right now, that is not a list of MLB Average players by the definitions we’ve been using. Maybe other measurements are being used, but the 2.5-3.5 fWAR is what was discussed earlier as the delineator for MLB average players.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 10, 2024 22:45:33 GMT -5
A couple people made the point already, but I just want to emphasize: building around home-grown talent is NOT just a question of sitting around and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel. The young talent already in or just arriving to the majors is actually pretty phenomenal. Like, look at this: C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom/Valdez 3B - Devers SS - Rafaela LF - Duran/Abreu CF - Rafaela/Duran/Abreu RF - Abreu SP1 - Bello SP2 - Crawford SP3 - Houck SP4 - Whitlock SP5 - Winckowski, maybe Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better.* That's pretty wild! Not only could you not say this of the last several years - you couldn't say this of the 2018 team. Or any other Red Sox roster that I can recall.
*maybe not Wong, but I think the projections are too low on him, and in any case Teel is probably the safest bet of any prospect in the system to make it as at least an average major leaguer and he's probably only a year away
An MLB Average player is a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player (I think we discussed this a while back, and it was mentioned in the rankings systems for projections, too, for FV.) There are 1,000 WAR leaguewide over a season, 570 of which go to position players. This is by the definition of how WAR is calculated. 570 divided by 30 teams divided by 9 position is 2.1 WAR per 162 games (or roughly 700 PA) at each position.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 11, 2024 0:33:53 GMT -5
An MLB Average player is a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player (I think we discussed this a while back, and it was mentioned in the rankings systems for projections, too, for FV.) There are 1,000 WAR leaguewide over a season, 570 of which go to position players. This is by the definition of how WAR is calculated. 570 divided by 30 teams divided by 9 position is 2.1 WAR per 162 games (or roughly 700 PA) at each position. Fangraphs says a 50 FV is 1.6-2.4 fWAR for a hitter and 1.8-2.5 for pitchers (source: blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/)There were only 58 position players and 18 pitchers who hit 3.5 fWAR last year so that’s definitely high.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 11, 2024 1:40:36 GMT -5
An MLB Average player is a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player (I think we discussed this a while back, and it was mentioned in the rankings systems for projections, too, for FV.) There are 1,000 WAR leaguewide over a season, 570 of which go to position players. This is by the definition of how WAR is calculated. 570 divided by 30 teams divided by 9 position is 2.1 WAR per 162 games (or roughly 700 PA) at each position. I don’t like suggesting people are arguing in bad faith but I’m pretty sure Guidas has said exactly this before and then like 5-10 people responded saying that no, the average is actually about 2 WAR and he ignored it then too.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 11, 2024 7:56:32 GMT -5
A couple people made the point already, but I just want to emphasize: building around home-grown talent is NOT just a question of sitting around and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel. The young talent already in or just arriving to the majors is actually pretty phenomenal. Like, look at this: C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom/Valdez 3B - Devers SS - Rafaela LF - Duran/Abreu CF - Rafaela/Duran/Abreu RF - Abreu SP1 - Bello SP2 - Crawford SP3 - Houck SP4 - Whitlock SP5 - Winckowski, maybe Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better.* That's pretty wild! Not only could you not say this of the last several years - you couldn't say this of the 2018 team. Or any other Red Sox roster that I can recall.
*maybe not Wong, but I think the projections are too low on him, and in any case Teel is probably the safest bet of any prospect in the system to make it as at least an average major leaguer and he's probably only a year away
An MLB Average player is a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player (I think we discussed this a while back, and it was mentioned in the rankings systems for projections, too, for FV.) Here’s the Zips projections for the above guys: Devers 3.6 (655 PAs) Casas 1.9 (502) Rafaela 1.9 (557) Duran 1.5 (415) Abreu 1.5 (474) Wong 0.8 (373) Valdez 1.4 (457) Grissom 1.8 (560 ABs) That’s exactly one MLB Average guy or better on offense. We could finagle CF with some sort of platoon to maybe get a 2.5 player, but Rafaela’s 1.9 is already projected to be 557 PAs, so we’re only looking at about 100 PAs for someone to be a 0.6 fWAR player. Doable but not easy, and with Duran projected to be 1.5 on 415 ABs and Abreu to be 1.5 on 447 PAs it will be tight. But let’s say they pull it off and give the position 2.5. And that’s 1 MLB Average or better guy and maybe 1 MLB Average position if, again, we can squeeze a 0.6 fWAR out pf the other 100 PAs going to Yoshida/DH We can use ZiPS for the pitchers but, as has been noted, fWAR not the best measure of them so let’s use projected ERA and FIP (there’s no ZiPS for xERA and xFIP) Bello 147 innings 4.28 ERA/4.03 FIP* Crawford 106 innings 4.49 ERA/4.20 FIP Houck 103 innings 4.62 ERA/4.34 FIP Whitlock 89innings 3.63.ERA/3.49 FIP Winckowski 99 Innings 4.36 ERA/4.10FIP For the sake of argument, ZiPS has Bello at 2.6 which would make him MLB average. For further context, out of the 58 pitchers who threw 150 or more innings last year, Bello was 40th in ERA/30th in xERA/49th in FIP/33rd in xFIP So given the above, at least by ZIPS and fWAR, the Sox have probably 2 MLB Average or better players on that list (Devers and Bello) 1 MLB Average or better platoon position. We may get a big leap forward for Casas, and Duran could repeat or exceed last year’s performance. Some pitchers could also exceed expectations. But right now, that is not a list of MLB Average players by the definitions we’ve been using. Maybe other measurements are being used, but the 2.5-3.5 fWAR is what was discussed earlier as the delineator for MLB average players. Where did you get these numbers? I'm seeing better ZiPS projections for all of these players on Fangraphs: Devers 4.1 fWAR (654 PAs) Casas 2.3 (524) Rafaela 2.4 (566) Duran 1.6 (447) Abreu 1.8 (480) Wong 0.8 (361) Valdez 1.7 (467) Grissom 3.0 (578) When you couple this with the fact that an average MLB regular is closer to 2 WAR (as others pointed out above), and that these guys aren't projected to get a full season's worth of ABs but are all above 2 WAR/600 PA except for Wong, my conclusion would be nearly the opposite of yours: a lineup full of just these guys would have average or better players at nearly every position. The only issue is that ZiPS projects a bit too much WAR leaguewide if I recall correctly, so these WAR totals should be a touch on the high side.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 11, 2024 9:03:30 GMT -5
They also have O'Neill at 2.3 and Story at 1.9 but both with less than 400 PAs. That may or may not be realistic for the former but for Story that's probably low. He could easily see 500+ plate appearences now that he's healthy.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2024 9:06:00 GMT -5
An MLB Average player is a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player (I think we discussed this a while back, and it was mentioned in the rankings systems for projections, too, for FV.) Here’s the Zips projections for the above guys: Devers 3.6 (655 PAs) Casas 1.9 (502) Rafaela 1.9 (557) Duran 1.5 (415) Abreu 1.5 (474) Wong 0.8 (373) Valdez 1.4 (457) Grissom 1.8 (560 ABs) That’s exactly one MLB Average guy or better on offense. We could finagle CF with some sort of platoon to maybe get a 2.5 player, but Rafaela’s 1.9 is already projected to be 557 PAs, so we’re only looking at about 100 PAs for someone to be a 0.6 fWAR player. Doable but not easy, and with Duran projected to be 1.5 on 415 ABs and Abreu to be 1.5 on 447 PAs it will be tight. But let’s say they pull it off and give the position 2.5. And that’s 1 MLB Average or better guy and maybe 1 MLB Average position if, again, we can squeeze a 0.6 fWAR out pf the other 100 PAs going to Yoshida/DH We can use ZiPS for the pitchers but, as has been noted, fWAR not the best measure of them so let’s use projected ERA and FIP (there’s no ZiPS for xERA and xFIP) Bello 147 innings 4.28 ERA/4.03 FIP* Crawford 106 innings 4.49 ERA/4.20 FIP Houck 103 innings 4.62 ERA/4.34 FIP Whitlock 89innings 3.63.ERA/3.49 FIP Winckowski 99 Innings 4.36 ERA/4.10FIP For the sake of argument, ZiPS has Bello at 2.6 which would make him MLB average. For further context, out of the 58 pitchers who threw 150 or more innings last year, Bello was 40th in ERA/30th in xERA/49th in FIP/33rd in xFIP So given the above, at least by ZIPS and fWAR, the Sox have probably 2 MLB Average or better players on that list (Devers and Bello) 1 MLB Average or better platoon position. We may get a big leap forward for Casas, and Duran could repeat or exceed last year’s performance. Some pitchers could also exceed expectations. But right now, that is not a list of MLB Average players by the definitions we’ve been using. Maybe other measurements are being used, but the 2.5-3.5 fWAR is what was discussed earlier as the delineator for MLB average players. Where did you get these numbers? I'm seeing better ZiPS projections for all of these players on Fangraphs: Devers 4.1 fWAR (654 PAs) Casas 2.3 (524) Rafaela 2.4 (566) Duran 1.6 (447) Abreu 1.8 (480) Wong 0.8 (361) Valdez 1.7 (467) Grissom 3.0 (578) When you couple this with the fact that an average MLB regular is closer to 2 WAR (as others pointed out above), and that these guys aren't projected to get a full season's worth of ABs but are all above 2 WAR/600 PA except for Wong, my conclusion would be nearly the opposite of yours: a lineup full of just these guys would have average or better players at nearly every position. The only issue is that ZiPS projects a bit too much WAR leaguewide if I recall correctly, so these WAR totals should be a touch on the high side. I was using the definition for MLB average in FVs. Either way, if we’re talking fielding a roster of pre-arb guys plus Devers who are MLB average, as was stated about, this group falls short. ( Oh and I.was using the ZiPS projections from late last year.I didn’t know he updated since then blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ )
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 11, 2024 10:34:39 GMT -5
Where did you get these numbers? I'm seeing better ZiPS projections for all of these players on Fangraphs: Devers 4.1 fWAR (654 PAs) Casas 2.3 (524) Rafaela 2.4 (566) Duran 1.6 (447) Abreu 1.8 (480) Wong 0.8 (361) Valdez 1.7 (467) Grissom 3.0 (578) When you couple this with the fact that an average MLB regular is closer to 2 WAR (as others pointed out above), and that these guys aren't projected to get a full season's worth of ABs but are all above 2 WAR/600 PA except for Wong, my conclusion would be nearly the opposite of yours: a lineup full of just these guys would have average or better players at nearly every position. The only issue is that ZiPS projects a bit too much WAR leaguewide if I recall correctly, so these WAR totals should be a touch on the high side. I was using the definition for MLB average in FVs. Either way, if we’re talking fielding a roster of pre-arb guys plus Devers who are MLB average, as was stated about, this group falls short. ( Oh and I.was using the ZiPS projections from late last year.I didn’t know he updated since then blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ ) I’m still confused where “an average player is 2.5-3.5 fWAR” comes from. It’s definitely not Fangraphs. My understanding is that 2 WAR is the general baseline for an average regular—not the average player in general, since the vast majority of players who appear in an MLB season put up 1 WAR or less.
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Post by classylefthander on Feb 11, 2024 10:56:46 GMT -5
I was using the definition for MLB average in FVs. Either way, if we’re talking fielding a roster of pre-arb guys plus Devers who are MLB average, as was stated about, this group falls short. ( Oh and I.was using the ZiPS projections from late last year.I didn’t know he updated since then blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ ) I’m still confused where “an average player is 2.5-3.5 fWAR” comes from. It’s definitely not Fangraphs. My understanding is that 2 WAR is the general baseline for an average regular—not the average player in general, since the vast majority of players who appear in an MLB season put up 1 WAR or less. Here’s Fangraphs loose player value chart ”League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth about 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically between 0 and 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR. For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart: Scrub 0-1 WAR Role Player 1-2 WAR Solid Starter 2-3 WAR Good Player 3-4 WAR All-Star 4-5 WAR Superstar 5-6 WAR MVP 6+ WAR” 2WAR/600 is the number I have seen associated with average MLB player.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2024 11:06:31 GMT -5
There are 1,000 WAR leaguewide over a season, 570 of which go to position players. This is by the definition of how WAR is calculated. 570 divided by 30 teams divided by 9 position is 2.1 WAR per 162 games (or roughly 700 PA) at each position. I don’t like suggesting people are arguing in bad faith but I’m pretty sure Guidas has said exactly this before and then like 5-10 people responded saying that no, the average is actually about 2 WAR and he ignored it then too. OK, this was my error. I was going off the FV = 2.5-3.5 to be an MLB Average player. But even with 2.0 fWAR, the original argument was the list + Devers = a team of MLB Average guys (minus Winckowski). It's not. It may be close. There are useful pieces here, and some guys with a lot of potential. But, OK, I'll admit I botched the qualitative range for average MLB player and the threshold is 2.0 instead of 2.5. I screwed up. Point stands that we're being sold a message that, all the Sox need are a couple more guys in 1-3 years who'll be MLB average or slightly better and then...THEN they're going to load up on enough big ticket free agents to win the division!? OK, let's live in this world for a moment. From multiple reports, the organization's reputation with agents and players has fallen significantly in the last several years. So has their win totals. The cumulative effect is, when they do make that big free agent push for a couple or three stars to augment the controllable average talent, they will have to do what Texas and SD did a few years ago - set the market on these players/positions. And not just on one guy. Likely they will need 2-3 of these guys, and at least 1 if not 2 in the worst category for this kind of outlay of all - starting pitching. Pitchers break. With longterm, market-setting contracts, when they break, the deals look even more absurd than when they were executed. All that said, there is nothing from this ownership group since late 2019 to suggest they will set the market on any star. Maybe there'll be a complete about face, but right now I'm not seeing any indication - except Kevin Kennedy happy talk - this will occur. Unless we're back to believing that their front office is now/again/soon-to-be smarter than everyone else at finding undervalued talent, especially pitchers. That was the buzz when the last GM was hired. Gonna be a hard no on that one, too.
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