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Post by puzzler on Feb 12, 2024 15:16:24 GMT -5
Yorke's also blocked now with Grissom the presumptive second baseman. He doesn't have another position to go to. The hit tool is the carrying tool, and he has nowhere else to play except second from all accounts. He may find himself in a package for some pitching from a team that needs a second baseman or who favors a high OPB DH who has 10-15 HR power. Sounds like a perfect fit for the Sox. Yeah if the bat plays at the MLB level and he really is a decent glove...I could really see Grissom in LF with his athleticism and Yorke at 2B. Yorke will have to hit pretty decently though just to make it at all. That won't happen this year, but Yorke will definitely get a cup of coffee by the end of 2024. If he tears it up in AAA, maybe mid year? But he really hasn't done that since 2021, so it doesn't seem likely.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 12, 2024 15:57:01 GMT -5
Sounds like a perfect fit for the Sox. Yeah if the bat plays at the MLB level and he really is a decent glove...I could really see Grissom in LF with his athleticism and Yorke at 2B. Yorke will have to hit pretty decently though just to make it at all. That won't happen this year, but Yorke will definitely get a cup of coffee by the end of 2024. If he tears it up in AAA, maybe mid year? But he really hasn't done that since 2021, so it doesn't seem likely. From what I've read, "decent glove" would be his absolute ceiling, defensively. The sell would be he's projected to be a high OBP guy. High enough to be a DH on a contending team would probably have to be north of .370 for him to be the regular DH, especially with his lack of HR power.
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 12, 2024 17:29:14 GMT -5
For those without a subscription, Keith believes Gonzalez, Perales, and Monegro all have major league value with Yordanny having the best chance to be a back end starter.
I asked where Drohan would have ranked and he said around 20 as another reliever.
Maybe the best comment was for Garcia who he said needs to improve defensively but if he can stay behind the plate has star potential because of the offensive upside.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 12, 2024 17:51:54 GMT -5
I'd sort of agree with that view, if not the phrasing. On balance, he's still above average there. When you have an excellent defensive outfielder (and second baseman) who is above average at short, that's obviously a value-add, but I'd take Mayer's defense at shortstop over Rafaela's. (I've also never thought he was quite an 80 defender in the outfield, but there's a lot of room to be a worse defender than Bradley and still clearly be an asset.) hi, everything you say is true but I think you’re missing what I was saying: we all know he is better at cf, but Law is saying not only that he’d be better at 2b than SS, but that he has actually been moved from SS to 2b, when the record shows he has played more SS than 2b and has only played a tiny amount of 2b. Disappointed that he didn’t address this when you asked (assuming jimoh and Jim O. are one and the same). Presumably he just avoided it because he realized it was indeed incorrect.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2024 19:51:17 GMT -5
hi, everything you say is true but I think you’re missing what I was saying: we all know he is better at cf, but Law is saying not only that he’d be better at 2b than SS, but that he has actually been moved from SS to 2b, when the record shows he has played more SS than 2b and has only played a tiny amount of 2b. Disappointed that he didn’t address this when you asked (assuming jimoh and Jim O. are one and the same). Presumably he just avoided it because he realized it was indeed incorrect. yeah that’s me. Weirdly, he doubled down, responding to my question by saying “moving to 2b AND cf”, and so I repeated that he was just wrong, adding the details that that he played zero innings at 2b in milb and 5 9-inning games at SS in mlb but only 11 innings at 2b, despite the Sox’ hole there.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 13, 2024 13:11:08 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 13, 2024 13:17:30 GMT -5
He's gonna have David Hamilton and Isaac Coffey high. He has some defensive metric for the minors that loves Hamilton. The Red Sox claim to believe that they like Hamilton's defense, too.
ZiPS also loves Isaac Coffey. I don't believe it knows that he throws in the 80's, but I could be wrong there.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 13, 2024 16:39:15 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 15, 2024 9:08:07 GMT -5
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 15, 2024 9:16:17 GMT -5
Meyer at 69 while Spencer Jones is at 15. Huh.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 15, 2024 9:22:18 GMT -5
I get Fangraphs does things a little differently with their rankings but come on Mayer at 69 only two spots above Bleis? I know some of the shine has faded off Mayer due to his production in limited action in AA when he got hurt but that's absurd in my opinion.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 15, 2024 9:23:27 GMT -5
Longenhagen has always been the low man on Mayer but that is crazy low. Oh well, prove him wrong kid.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 9:29:15 GMT -5
Meyer at 69 while Spencer Jones is at 15. Huh. Max Meyer is 56th, FWIW. Unless you were talking about Noble Meyer, he's 78th.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 15, 2024 9:33:52 GMT -5
Yeah Longenhagen seems convinced Mayer isn’t a shortstop—which would really kill his value! But I’m curious how one list puts a 30 on his defense when every other list says “average to plus defender at short.” Are scouts really that divided on him?
It’s really bizarre to me that Mayer gets dinged for not hitting spin well while Spencer Jones, who is a year and a half older, gets plaudits for maintaining a whiff rate that’s only a standard deviation above big league rates—in A ball.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2024 9:52:55 GMT -5
Not just a low rating on Mayer, but: "We will probably have a quick hook here here if things don’t look good." So he could be like off their top 100 by June?
As far as the hitting goes, the write-up doesn't seem crazy; they're sort of an amplified version of the warts mentioned in the soxprospects scouting report. The comments on his defense seem off the map though.
Oh well, 5 top 100 prospects still means the system is comfortably above average, assuming they still have the kind of depth fangraphs has given them in the last few team system rankings.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Feb 15, 2024 10:05:27 GMT -5
There's actually a lot of conflict here just going off of what Law has said.
Fangraphs is also saying Anthony needs to rework his swing, but Law said that his new swing is fantastic.
Apparently the missed time in 2020 is okay for Spencer Jones, meaning he can be a late breakout, but it means that there is more reason to be pessimistic on Mayer? Who is 2 years younger?
They are also the only ones who seem to think Mayer's defense got worse this year.
I honestly cannot understand what they like about Spencer Jones. Do they think he's staying in centerfield?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 15, 2024 10:10:41 GMT -5
Not just a low rating on Mayer, but: "We will probably have a quick hook here here if things don’t look good." So he could be like off their top 100 by June? As far as the hitting goes, the write-up doesn't seem crazy; they're sort of an amplified version of the warts mentioned in the soxprospects scouting report. The comments on his defense seem off the map though. Oh well, 5 top 100 prospects still means the system is comfortably above average, assuming they still have the kind of depth fangraphs has given them in the last few team system rankings. The write-up doesn't seem all that crazy no but one sentence that stood out is "because of the missing 2020 summer, we aren't long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer period than he was good." Sure I'm just looking at his slash line over full seasons but far as I can tell the only stop so far he hasn't been good at was last year in Portland. The injury stuff is justified and he does need to get better at hitting breaking stuff but he's still produced rather well at every stop outside of 43 games as a guy who was younger than most the players he was playing against. Perhaps I'm picking nits and as Nomar said Longenhagen/Fangraphs have always been lower on Mayer than the consensus other prospect evaluators so I suppose another injury shortened season last year isn't exactly going to help them change their minds in that regard.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 15, 2024 10:11:46 GMT -5
Yeah Longenhagen seems convinced Mayer isn’t a shortstop—which would really kill his value! But I’m curious how one list puts a 30 on his defense when every other list says “average to plus defender at short.” Are scouts really that divided on him? It’s really bizarre to me that Mayer gets dinged for not hitting spin well while Spencer Jones, who is a year and a half older, gets plaudits for maintaining a whiff rate that’s only a standard deviation above big league rates—in A ball. Baseball prospectus has him basically average by DRP over his career but obviously this isn’t as accurate as OAA, DRS, etc at the MLB level. It also has Yorke as average to slightly better at 2B FWIW. Anthony was above average overall but I don’t have the positional split. It really liked Abreu in AAA but did not in 2022. It loves Rafaela too however unsurprisingly.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 15, 2024 10:41:51 GMT -5
I'm not really sure I get the idea that FG has always been low on Mayer.
Last year they had him #18 and the other main lists were 7-13.
Sure, 18 is a little lower, but still pretty small in that range. This is a big drop out of the 55 tier and into the middle of the 50 tier.
The distribution also has him with a 55% chance of being a 45 or below player. That would be a major problem for a team waiting to build a core around their elite hitting prospects.
FWIW, Anthony is at 50%, Rafaela is a bit under 60%, Bleis is at 70% and Teel is at 65%.
Anthony is the only prospect with at least a 50/50 chance to be an average player.
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Post by briam on Feb 15, 2024 10:49:15 GMT -5
It seems pretty simple, he’ll regain his lost shine if he can stay healthy and hit off speed. I’m not too worried about the defensive stuff since it reads like most of his struggles were probably shoulder related (sort of comical they mentioned the shoulder injury and then doubled down on dinging his arm) but we are getting to the point where he needs to prove it on the field to live up to the hype and the way the org is marketing him.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 15, 2024 10:53:58 GMT -5
I get people focusing on Mayer at 69 but he says in the intro that FV matters more than the numerical ranking, and they dropped Mayer down from a 55 to a 50 FV, so that is going to put him in the middle of the pack. Longenhagen has always been a bit lower on Mayer than everyone else.
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Post by wamderingdude on Feb 15, 2024 11:53:09 GMT -5
I really attempt to put my red sox bias and yankee hate aside, and i’m trying not to just dismiss Fangraphs because they don’t rank guys the way i would. But i can’t take them seriously ranking Spencer Jones 15th. He’s a College draftee striking out 30+ percent in High A. If we’re giving him a pass for that because he has loud tools Miguel Bleis should be right up there next to him. I don’t get the love for him at all.
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Post by cdj on Feb 15, 2024 12:10:24 GMT -5
I really attempt to put my red sox bias and yankee hate aside, and i’m trying not to just dismiss Fangraphs because they don’t rank guys the way i would. But i can’t take them seriously ranking Spencer Jones 15th. He’s a College draftee striking out 30+ percent in High A. If we’re giving him a pass for that because he has loud tools Miguel Bleis should be right up there next to him. I don’t get the love for him at all. He’s tall, that’s gotta count for something!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 12:23:55 GMT -5
The degree to which Spencer Jones lives rent free in this boards’ head is absurd.
I get that as Sox fans there’s some gravitation towards hating the Yankees whenever possible but if the general consensus of objective (relatively) pundits like him, and Sox fans don’t… who’s the biased party here?
That’s not to see that they’re all right and that he’s a perfect prospect, but it’s also pretty obvious what they see in him, so I just don’t understand the collective need to fanatically complain about him in particular.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 15, 2024 12:34:32 GMT -5
The degree to which Spencer Jones lives rent free in this boards’ head is absurd. I get that as Sox fans there’s some gravitation towards hating the Yankees whenever possible but if the general consensus of objective (relatively) pundits like him, and Sox fans don’t… who’s the biased party here? That’s not to see that they’re all right and that he’s a perfect prospect, but it’s also pretty obvious what they see in him, so I just don’t understand the collective need to fanatically complain about him in particular. This is the thread for commenting on national lists, is it not? Longenhagen is the only one who’s really in love with him, he didn’t even make Keith Law’s top 100. Where else is one to comment about how national lists rank our biggest rival’s prospects? I have to admit though, you yourself made a very insightful contribution to the discussion by pointing out that the Apple iPhone loves to autocorrect Mayer to Meyer.
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