Patriots 2024 Offseason Thread

"Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics," but...



Lots of JJ Talk and I'm starting to be convinced. I was so against it, but I'm starting to wonder. JJ at 3 and Roman Wilson at 34, reunite the Natty Winners? Quite the high-success low-volume chance to take!

More JJ love (from The Athletic in response to Dane Brugler's updated Top 100):

A statical analysis of the QB class: fanduel.com/research/2024-nfl-draft-which-quarterback-is-statistically-superior

I'll have to watch more tape, but I'm shocked to see Penix with more scrambles than Nix and McCarthy. That's a huge part of Nix and McCarthy game, a big reason you'd like the players. All the QBs are mobile besides Penix, who's a pocket passer. You might be able to explain Penix to McCarthy given Penix has almost twice the attempts, so McCarthy is doing it at a much higher percentage of his throws. That doesn't apply for Nix though, who felt like he had 10-15 scramble throws against Washington alone.

The fun part of scouting players is what the person scouting goes by. It's different for everyone, why you get such wild differences in rankings. I'm big on game tape against the best teams you play against. How you perform against NFL level talent. Example Daniels 11 TDs for two non division one teams, that's useless crap for me. What he did versus Florida State and Bama is what I'm looking at.

The problem I have with McCarthy is they treat him in a more extreme way than Patriots with Brady in 2001. That Patriot team still threw more than they ran, Brady had epic games against good teams. McCarthy does less against quality teams than any QB. He only has more passes versus them because they played so many. If you broke it down per game he'd be the lowest on the list. His best game versus a top opponent stat wise is Bama, that's the worst tape I've watched of his. He misses throws, lots of dump downs. His two biggest plays are wide open WR. He's got more bad throws than great throws in that game. Michigan basically ran two different offenses, one that opened things up against bad teams and a crazy conservative one against good teams. This isn’t like watching Rattler who's just outgunned talent wise either, McCarthy has very good weapons. Top two WR going to combine, alone with 2nd TE. His top TE is a sophomore and looks like a future high pick, maybe first round. I watched every pass against Ohio State, Bama and Washington. He's better versus Ohio State and Washington than Bama. He's just never taking over a game and he's like Nix in that there's a bunch of risky passes that will get picked off in the NFL. Nix versus Washington single handed keeps his team in the game, Michigan just runs it down their throats all game. Penix has his worst game of the season versus Michigan, he's still makes more big time NFL throws in that game than McCarthy does. We also have multiple other games against Oregon and Texas were Penix lights up very good teams. Penix per PFF best game is versus Texas, which is by far the best opponent for any QBs top game this year. McCarthy best game is East Carolina, Williams is Stanford, Maye Georgia Tech, Daniels Mississippi State, Nix California, and McCarthy East Carolina.

I like McCarthy, I just don't see top 3 pick. I can certainly buy maybe Michigan hurt him with the way they ran their offense. He's young, has a bunch of talent, lots of things to like about him. He's also likely the most not NFL ready QB we're talking about. In the NFL he's going to be asked to win games every week. You also have to put his stats into context as he was asked to do the least among all the top QBs and they never had a game they couldn't run the ball very well. Bama game, worst one against too opponents they still average over 4 yards a carry. Think Mac Jones rookie year when we could run over teams, versus next two years when we couldn't. It's why he's the hardest guy to likely grade at QB in this draft. Also why he has the largest draft range of any of the top QBs. What you really need are his practice tapes going up against the D every week. So inside information we don't have is going to be huge for him.

I just don't see a top 3 pick, not in this draft class. If they really like him, you'd like to see them trade down and then pick him. Then bring in a veteran and give him time to get ready for NFL. He's not Caleb Williams who you want out there week one.

I will say given how our owner is basically trying to recreate Bill with Mayo, they might be looking for that Michigan QB to start the next dynasty lol. It's not crazy, he's just more like Brady who benefited from sitting for a year, then other more ready NFL QBs. I just can't get over that Bama tape.

That's actually an interesting take. Never thought of the RT, LT dynamic based on the hand of the QB, but it makes sense. Dumb question though, why can't Onwenu or other RT play LT and vice versa? Why couldn't the matchups change sides so the better pass rusher gets to face the QBs blindside?

Just thought I'd share: my grandson reads this forum & some time back got me to agree to put $10 in his college fund every time you reference "watching tape" or "studying the film" or some such ("like he's a super scout or something!"). 

So you're killing me, mate. The kid loves you though. At this rate he might can afford to go Ivy ...

Exactly!

He played you, I'll say that a ton every year for a 3 month stretch. I'm certainly not a super scout but watching tape is the best way to judge these players for me. I read every scouting report, tweet, stats I can find and when things don't match up I go watch more tape. Already spent 10-15 hours on the QBs and I'm just scratching the surface. I just never have enough time to watch everything I want too. I really want to do the WR and TEs also, no way I'll have the time.

At least it's for a good cause and if you're going to spend big money on College Ivy League is the way to go.

I know we need offense, but in every Texas game I watched, TVondre Sweat caused a huge mess. No DLine expert, but I know when I see a name in the backfield or on the RB all game long. I'm seeing him in the 50s or 60s of some longer mocks. Not sure how he'd play with Baremore but he's also nearing end of rookie contract.

I agree we could use another LB. Maybe a year-2 jump for our small school hybrid 3rd rounder? Tx Aggie LB is my early favorite to be drafted 1st. Tools tools and tools.

Not a fan of Queen ever since I saw him try tackling a WR at the 8 yard line and end up in the end zone on his back. Baltimore had to go get a LB from CHI & a huge strong safety to make that defense work. Lot of grumbling pre-2023 about his lack of physicality. Admittedly, he seemed to have a pretty solid year this year. But, still, that's a big N O for me.

Maybe we find some off-the-line snaps for Jennings? Maybe Mac Wilson's performance evens out? Bentley has been great & Tavai has been better than solid.

Not a big surprise: two vets get the axe:

Physicality is something we don't need at LB, the two we have are about as Physical as it comes. I'm not some huge Queen fan given the price people are talking about. We do need a similar type player though. Our top 3 tacklers have a shocking low amount of tackles for loss for example.

Jennings might be the most underrated player on the team, you absolutely want to resign him.

I don't think either player released is shocking, I'm surprised at the timing. More so with Philips than Guy, given Dugger could leave in free agency. I do think it points to a major shift in the way they do business, I expect major fireworks when free agency starts.