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Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 12:14:30 GMT -5
I love Rafa but to me the young bat they should’ve extended is Casas. Before Bello, CR or Crawford, Houck etc Sure, but you can't always do these things in order. If Casas is looking for bigger money, it doesn't make sense to wait around and miss out on good deals while they figure it out.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 11, 2024 12:37:58 GMT -5
FWIW, Bello, Rafaela and Casas all have similar 3 year ZiPS projections:
| 2024 WAR
| 2025 WAR
| 2026 WAR
| Total
| Guaranteed $
| Bello | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 7
| $55M | Rafaela | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 6.7
| $50M
| Casas | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 6.3
| ?
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My guess is the Sox would also be interested in Casas in the ~$50-60 million range. And I would not be surprised if Casas thinks he's worth more than that.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 11, 2024 12:46:42 GMT -5
little chance Boston clearly wins this rather than going year to year with a defensive first player Feel free to think Rafaela isn't very likely to be any good, but any scenario where he's a long term starter piling up 2 WAR seasons through his FA years is one where the Sox win big here and thats clearly not like a 95th percentile type outcome I understand their point, but just because teams don’t typically spend much on defense, that doesn’t mean that you can’t or shouldn’t.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 11, 2024 12:50:41 GMT -5
FWIW, Bello, Rafaela and Casas all have similar 3 year ZiPS projections:
| 2024 WAR
| 2025 WAR
| 2026 WAR
| Total
| Guaranteed $
| Bello | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 7
| $55M | Rafaela | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 6.7
| $50M
| Casas | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 6.3
| ?
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My guess is the Sox would also be interested in Casas in the ~$50-60 million range. And I would not be surprised if Casas thinks he's worth more than that.
Another wrinkle is that Casas' skill-set is the kind that gets richly rewarded in arbitration (e.g., Vald Jr. will have already made $44 million through this season with one more arb year to go), whereas a speed/defense profile gets undercompensated in arb. So even with identical WAR projections, Casas would have less incentive to agree to an extension than Rafaela.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 11, 2024 12:56:41 GMT -5
FWIW, Bello, Rafaela and Casas all have similar 3 year ZiPS projections:
| 2024 WAR
| 2025 WAR
| 2026 WAR
| Total
| Guaranteed $
| Bello | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 7
| $55M | Rafaela | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 6.7
| $50M
| Casas | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 6.3
| ?
|
My guess is the Sox would also be interested in Casas in the ~$50-60 million range. And I would not be surprised if Casas thinks he's worth more than that.
Another wrinkle is that Casas' skill-set is the kind that gets richly rewarded in arbitration (e.g., Vald Jr. will have already made $44 million through this season with one more arb year to go), whereas a speed/defense profile gets undercompensated in arb. So even with identical WAR projections, Casas would have less incentive to agree to an extension than Rafaela. Plus Casas comes from a wealthier background and got a big signing bonus, and has already been consistently good in MLB. Lots of reasons it just doesn’t line up as well for him, unfortunately.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 11, 2024 15:15:06 GMT -5
Carlos Collazo and Ben Badler talked about this deal on their new pod today. Their summary was it's an amazing deal for Rafaela and his agents, not sure why Boston was in a hurry to do this, little chance Boston clearly wins this rather than going year to year with a defensive first player. I unfortunately agree. It’s not bad. But tough to really win, and you don’t win early either. Can they spread this over 8 or is it 49/7?
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Post by strike23 on Apr 11, 2024 17:07:26 GMT -5
Plus Casas comes from a wealthier background and got a big signing bonus, and has already been consistently good in MLB. Lots of reasons it just doesn’t line up as well for him, unfortunately. Another unfortunate part of Casas' situation is that if he goes year-to-year through 2028 then someone or multiple someones in the Teel/Myer/Anthony/etc. group may end up taking Casas' money and squeezing him out. The Sox probably can't sign them all, there's only so much to go around, and only so much they can allocate to hitters so there may be some amount of first-come-first-served to who gets paid and ultimately stays. I like Casas a lot but if we don't have the money to keep him because those guys work out and are extended I'm generally ok losing the all bat 1B when Devers is presumably already blocking DH. I might feel differently if he provided at least a Goldshmidt/Freeman level glove.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 11, 2024 17:21:17 GMT -5
I appreciate the Rafaela signing for two reasons.
1) It shows that the Sox value excellent defense.
2) It is another example, like Bello, whitlock and Devers, that they seem willing to hang on to the emerging core that I am growing quite fond of and develop (in the minors and majors) that core in to a winner.
Good stuff !
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 11, 2024 17:23:03 GMT -5
Another unfortunate part of Casas' situation is that if he goes year-to-year through 2028 then someone or multiple someones in the Teel/Myer/Anthony/etc. group may end up taking Casas' money and squeezing him out. The Sox probably can't sign them all, there's only so much to go around, and only so much they can allocate to hitters so there may be some amount of first-come-first-served to who gets paid and ultimately stays. I like Casas a lot but if we don't have the money to keep him because those guys work out and are extended I'm generally ok losing the all bat 1B when Devers is presumably already blocking DH. I might feel differently if he provided at least a Goldshmidt/Freeman level glove. I get it and get why War doesn’t generally value him due to the first base defense and base running, but it’s very hard to find a middle of the order bat that’s potentially a top 10 hitter in the sport.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 11, 2024 17:32:58 GMT -5
I like Casas a lot but if we don't have the money to keep him because those guys work out and are extended I'm generally ok losing the all bat 1B when Devers is presumably already blocking DH. I might feel differently if he provided at least a Goldshmidt/Freeman level glove. I get it and get why War doesn’t generally value him due to the first base defense and base running, but it’s very hard to find a middle of the order bat that’s potentially a top 10 hitter in the sport. I get that its just that him and Devers at the corners make 2B and SS defense so important that its hard to have anything less than above average fielders in those spots. Maybe once only one of them is on the field at a time (Yoshida was/is such a bad roster fit even if he hits because of this) I'd feel more strongly about hypothetically losing his bat.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Apr 13, 2024 14:57:09 GMT -5
A player with a high ceiling on defense and a low floor on offense but one whom they've seen enough to know that floor is not as bad as once feared. I still think the jury is out on his offensive upside. A full year here will help more clearly define his projected parameters. Yup. But I think the concerns on offense are overblown..He has, IMO, a lightening bat and seeming good bat to ball. He's done it in the minors with regular play. And, did you see him run on the triple to right? A certified gazelle..such a beautiful, gliding stride. Poetry. I was one of those who was noting despite his suspect offensive tools he was still finding a way to get it done at every level. But the toughest level is the last one so I think it's somewhat wise to temper expectation, this when I recently stated JBJ is a good comp.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 13, 2024 20:08:11 GMT -5
Yup. But I think the concerns on offense are overblown..He has, IMO, a lightening bat and seeming good bat to ball. He's done it in the minors with regular play. And, did you see him run on the triple to right? A certified gazelle..such a beautiful, gliding stride. Poetry. I was one of those who was noting despite his suspect offensive tools he was still finding a way to get it done at every level. But the toughest level is the last one so I think it's somewhat wise to temper expectation, this when I recently stated JBJ is a good comp. True enough. Xander had a below average first year adjusting. Likely Rafaela will too. All good. But he has the stuff on both sides of the ball. I'll take defense first this year. We aren't going anywhere realistically and I'm ok with that. I'm looking forward to Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Bleis in 2 years. I can wait. BTW Anthony hit 2 out today including one at 111 EV.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 13, 2024 20:31:38 GMT -5
Expecting Bleis in 2 years is very wishful thinking. He's in low A now. Three years, maybe.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2024 8:07:33 GMT -5
Posted this comparison in the game thread:
Rafaela, first 174 PAs of his career: .199/.241/.321, 50 wRC+ Pedroia, first 173 PAs of his career: .197/.291/.289, 52 wRC+
But it's notable that this was exactly the point that Pedroia turned it on. PAs 171-173 were a single, a double, and a walk. The next day (5/6/07) he went 3-4 with two doubles, and through the rest of May he hit .441/.492/.644. AKA, laser show.
So get your "Pedroia started off slow, too" comments in while you can, because the clock is ticking.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Apr 24, 2024 8:47:09 GMT -5
That .050 difference in OBP is huge. Pedroia was having great at bats
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 24, 2024 9:19:51 GMT -5
Rafaela needs to see one or two go out for a confidence boost. Even with his bad approach his quality of contact is way down from ST. I think he’s off, pressing, and inexperienced. That’s not a great combo, but I think he deserves some patience. I’m not expecting him to be Pedroia, and not everyone has it figured out after 200 PA.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2024 9:30:11 GMT -5
Rafaela needs to see one or two go out for a confidence boost. Even with his bad approach his quality of contact is way down from ST. I think he’s off, pressing, and inexperienced. That’s not a great combo, but I think he deserves some patience. I’m not expecting him to be Pedroia, and not everyone has it figured out after 200 PA. I agree. I'm pretty much willing to give him the whole season to try to make some progress.
But I never did feel like it was a given that he'd hit well enough to make it in the majors. People earlier in this thread convinced me the extension was a good idea because even as just a glove-first utility guy who could play an elite CF he'd have enough value to justify it, and that role comes with a really low offensive bar. But... well, there still is *a* bar he needs to meet as a hitter, and it would be nice to see him do so before too long.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 24, 2024 9:37:29 GMT -5
I thought the extension was unnecessary when it was signed and if anything I feel worse about it than I did at the time. That being said I'm not going to write him off as a potential impact starter yet and knew he was going to have growing pains. His approach at the plate is never going to be particularly good but hopefully his sneaky power will show itself enough and he will make enough contact to not be a below average MLB hitter.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2024 9:54:10 GMT -5
I’m not even having issues with him chasing everything, I have issues with him not being able to hit mediocre fastballs in the zone. He’s late on everything.
I still want him playing every day for the defense but the bat just isn’t big league caliber at this point. We must live with it until he hopefully develops at the plate
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 24, 2024 10:19:42 GMT -5
That .050 difference in OBP is huge. Pedroia was having great at bats Pedroia had a chase rate of ~24% in his rookie year (not sure how that looked the first month), Rafaela has chased >44% of the time so far this year. Pedroia made contact in the zone 95% of the time, Rafaela is at 78%. But really they were never going to look like similar hitters, so the only comparison here is that another highly regarded Red Sox prospect started off extremely poorly and ended up great. If Rafaela is going to be a great player it's going to look a lot different than Pedroia.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 24, 2024 10:34:18 GMT -5
I’m not even having issues with him chasing everything, I have issues with him not being able to hit mediocre fastballs in the zone. He’s late on everything.
I still want him playing every day for the defense but the bat just isn’t big league caliber at this point. We must live with it until he hopefully develops at the plate
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Post by seamus on Apr 24, 2024 13:55:06 GMT -5
The defensive shuffling probably hasn't helped him at the plate - the burden of carrying a lousy infield defense when you've spent a lot more time in recent years in the outfield has to be tough, and it's probably a distraction at a time when he needs as few as possible to work it out in the box.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 24, 2024 14:06:24 GMT -5
The defensive shuffling probably hasn't helped him at the plate - the burden of carrying a lousy infield defense when you've spent a lot more time in recent years in the outfield has to be tough, and it's probably a distraction at a time when he needs as few as possible to work it out in the box. I kind of disagree. I think his defensive versatility is the only thing giving him any confidence right now and he looks comfortable in the field. I think he’s just swinging out of his shoes and trying to correct the course of his season in every swing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 24, 2024 14:49:13 GMT -5
The defensive shuffling probably hasn't helped him at the plate - the burden of carrying a lousy infield defense when you've spent a lot more time in recent years in the outfield has to be tough, and it's probably a distraction at a time when he needs as few as possible to work it out in the box. I kind of disagree. I think his defensive versatility is the only thing giving him any confidence right now and he looks comfortable in the field. I think he’s just swinging out of his shoes and trying to correct the course of his season in every swing. Yeah I don't get the people who are saying this (it's not just Seamus). Rafaela has continued to play shortstop roughly once a week in order to keep this club in his bag, so to speak, the entire way up the system. He was signed as an infielder. It's not like they're asking him to learn a new position. It's also not like he went from DH'ing regularly to suddenly having play the field every inning. He went from the most important OF position to the most important IF position. Is the logic that he's at the plate and he's like "oh man, what if I get hit a really difficult ground ball in the hole next inning"?
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