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4/30-5/2 Red Sox vs. Giants Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 29, 2024 15:36:28 GMT -5
4/30 Red Sox (RHP Cooper Criswell, 1-1, 2.38, 11.1 IP, 7K:2BB) vs. Giants (RHP Logan Webb, 3-1, 2.33, 38.2 IP, 26K:7BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/1 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 1-1, 1.35, 33.1 IP, 34K:11BB) vs. Giants (TBD) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/2 Red Sox (RHP Josh Winckowski, 1-1, 3.50, 18.0 IP, 19K:8BB) vs. Giants (LHP Kyle Harrison, 2-1, 4.09, 33.0 IP, 31K:5BB) 1:35 pm ET, ESPN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2024: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 29, 2024 15:59:50 GMT -5
Andrew Bailey's old team is 24th in era. His new team is 1st. Last year his old team was 11th and his new team 22nd. That is a pretty big loss for his old team and a huge gain for his new team. Glad he is ours !!!
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Post by strike23 on Apr 29, 2024 19:15:59 GMT -5
At what point do we move Duran out of the leadoff spot to take some pressure off while he tries to get his swing back? Wilyer probably walks enough with average speed to be an ok fit there. Its not like we run a ton in front of Devers, TON anyway.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 19:21:43 GMT -5
At what point do we move Duran out of the leadoff spot to take some pressure off while he tries to get his swing back? Wilyer probably walks enough with average speed to be an ok fit there. Its not like we run a ton in front of Devers, TON anyway. Duran slumped for about a week, and it may have ended on Friday (.333/.455/.667 in the last two games). He's fine.
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Post by dirtdog on Apr 29, 2024 20:10:20 GMT -5
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Post by asm18 on Apr 29, 2024 20:11:21 GMT -5
I will chain myself to Fenway Park to keep him from getting traded in July
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 29, 2024 20:18:12 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Apr 29, 2024 20:23:15 GMT -5
At what point do we move Duran out of the leadoff spot to take some pressure off while he tries to get his swing back? Wilyer probably walks enough with average speed to be an ok fit there. Its not like we run a ton in front of Devers, TON anyway. Duran slumped for about a week, and it may have ended on Friday (.333/.455/.667 in the last two games). He's fine. Is that a triple slash line for a 2-game sample? And one of those hits was off a position player. He doesn't seem like he's busted his slump quite yet to me, but I also think Duran is awesome and wouldn't move him from leadoff unless he was getting a day off entirely.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Apr 29, 2024 20:26:49 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Yeah, he's murdering the ball with also the best BB% and K% of his career.
If the Sox think they can keep him healthy, he seems like a really good candidate to keep around beyond this year and break up our plethora of lefties.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 29, 2024 20:32:06 GMT -5
I will chain myself to Fenway Park to keep him from getting traded in July I will go you one further. They need to sign him for next year NOW before he can become a free agent. He is the best righthanded hitter on the team and I do not see anyone in the system who can replace his bat for the next few years. HE is only 28. I am tired of seeing the Red Sox sign players for one year, the player having a good year, and then the player leaving for another team.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 29, 2024 20:34:15 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Yeah, he's murdering the ball with also the best BB% and K% of his career.
If the Sox think they can keep him healthy, he seems like a really good candidate to keep around beyond this year and break up our plethora of lefties.
It's a little tough because they also have Rafaela who they already committed too, Duran and Abreu both cheap and playing well, and a top prospect in Anthony approaching the Majors. Plus Refsnyder controlled for 2025. It's a pretty full outfield picture. They might need to trade one of the young guys anyways. And besides that it's a big IF on whether he can stay healthy. Big guy who already has an injury history entering his 30s doesn't bode super well. I think the best case for the team is that he walks for a QO because that would mean 1) he continued to play well, 2) the team was good enough not to trade him, and 3) all their cheap/already contracted OF options are looking good. Add: Of course if the team truly thinks he's a 4.5 win player now like ZiPS does and he can be had on a reasonable contract maybe you figure out how to make that work.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 20:35:36 GMT -5
Duran slumped for about a week, and it may have ended on Friday (.333/.455/.667 in the last two games). He's fine. Is that a triple slash line for a 2-game sample? And one of those hits was off a position player. He doesn't seem like he's busted his slump quite yet to me, but I also think Duran is awesome and wouldn't move him from leadoff unless he was getting a day off entirely. Yeah but the "slump" itself is a tiny sample. It would hardly have been noticed in July, but a one-week slump in April craters the stats.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 29, 2024 20:46:42 GMT -5
On top of all of the above, I just read the article about how much TON loves playing in Boston and at Fenway, not just park dimensions , but also the lore.
I think he's the kind of guy you re-up over the all-star break for 3 or 4 years and it can be sold as mutually beneficial/ and a hometown discount. O'Neil needs the consistency and commitment in a place he can thrive and Boston needs his RH bat and outfield defense.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,916
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Post by nomar on Apr 29, 2024 20:48:32 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Yeah, he's murdering the ball with also the best BB% and K% of his career. If the Sox think they can keep him healthy, he seems like a really good candidate to keep around beyond this year and break up our plethora of lefties.
The thing that stands out the most in terms of what he’s doing differently this year is picking his pitches to hit. His Z-Swing is 55% and his career average is 68%. He’s swinging at the fewest pitches of his career so the high BB% is no shock, but that’s a very but difference in swings in the zone.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 29, 2024 21:00:09 GMT -5
Is that a triple slash line for a 2-game sample? And one of those hits was off a position player. He doesn't seem like he's busted his slump quite yet to me, but I also think Duran is awesome and wouldn't move him from leadoff unless he was getting a day off entirely. Yeah but the "slump" itself is a tiny sample. It would hardly have been noticed in July, but a one-week slump in April craters the stats. It really depends on how you look at the slump, if a single good game or two gets you out of it than its maybe only a week long? But all the way back to the LAA series at Fenway he's hitting for a wRC+ of 69 including the strong last two days and a good first game of that series, deciding where to split things is always weird but if you wanted to be maximally pessimistic outside of the OAK and LAA series to start the year where he was red hot he's been significantly below average at the plate. I think Duran is a good player and I admittedly didn't see the last two games but before that his swing looked off and he was pulling too much. I don't want to see him take a game off because that means we have a hole in CF or at SS but if moving him down helps take some pressure off and gives him more opportunities to run it could be fun.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 29, 2024 21:04:01 GMT -5
On top of all of the above, I just read the article about how much TON loves playing in Boston and at Fenway, not just park dimensions , but also the lore. I think he's the kind of guy you re-up over the all-star break for 3 or 4 years and it can be sold as mutually beneficial/ and a hometown discount. O'Neil needs the consistency and commitment in a place he can thrive and Boston needs his RH bat and outfield defense. I really hope he ends up here for the next 3-5 years and keeps extending that opening day HR streak - I'll question Cora on plenty of things but props to him for giving O'Neil the start and best chance to extend that streak despite the L/R matchup.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 29, 2024 22:00:43 GMT -5
Yeah, he's murdering the ball with also the best BB% and K% of his career.
If the Sox think they can keep him healthy, he seems like a really good candidate to keep around beyond this year and break up our plethora of lefties.
It's a little tough because they also have Rafaela who they already committed too, Duran and Abreu both cheap and playing well, and a top prospect in Anthony approaching the Majors. Plus Refsnyder controlled for 2025. It's a pretty full outfield picture. They might need to trade one of the young guys anyways. And besides that it's a big IF on whether he can stay healthy. Big guy who already has an injury history entering his 30s doesn't bode super well. I think the best case for the team is that he walks for a QO because that would mean 1) he continued to play well, 2) the team was good enough not to trade him, and 3) all their cheap/already contracted OF options are looking good. Add: Of course if the team truly thinks he's a 4.5 win player now like ZiPS does and he can be had on a reasonable contract maybe you figure out how to make that work. I view having depth in the outfield as a good thing, not a problem. The Sox decided not to resign Turner because they thought he would only be a backup to Casis at 1b and Yoshida at dh. Now Casis is on the 60 day DL and they had to scramble to find a 1b man. Refsnyder can't hit lefties and isn't going to keep O'Neil on the bench. Rafaela is a great fielder but there are real questions about whether he can hit well enough to be an everyday outfielder. Anthony is currently not doing that well in AA and is left-handed, as are all our other good hitters except O'Neil. Sign O'Neil and the odds are the whole 'too many outfielders" issue will have sorted itself out one way or the other by next opening day.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 0:55:03 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Not to pick on you but... The set of projections originally listed on Fangraphs for Crawford, Houck, O'Neill, Abreu and Wong - to name a handful - were off by so much as to suggest pure guesswork. To give one really egregious example: Steamer projected Wong at .1 WAR for the year. Pro-rated, he should have accumulated less than 2 hundredths of a win at this juncture. The site currently has has him at .7 and Steamer (grudgingly?) upped his guesstimated production to .5 for the year. So he'd better get cracking and lose some value, right?? The same sort of analysis shows large undervaluation for the other names, and via the other projection systems as well. My point is simple: the systems are more useful for the sort of change analysis SoxStats highlights than they are as reliable projections of performance. Caveat emptor. There were posts throwing those numbers around as if they were some sort of ceiling and they are not.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2024 2:09:50 GMT -5
From my understanding of the ZIPS type projection systems, there's no scouting, no excuses, no consideration that a player's mother married an ax murderer, no adjustments for player injuries. It's simply a compilation of how similar players in histories fared going forward. Using Wong as an example, they weren't "wrong", that was how historically players similarly situated fared. If a player exceeds that, he's exceeded those that came before him, he hasn't beaten zips.
Scouting is your friend....
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 30, 2024 7:23:06 GMT -5
From my understanding of the ZIPS type projection systems, there's no scouting, no excuses, no consideration that a player's mother married an ax murderer, no adjustments for player injuries. It's simply a compilation of how similar players in histories fared going forward. Using Wong as an example, they weren't "wrong", that was how historically players similarly situated fared. If a player exceeds that, he's exceeded those that came before him, he hasn't beaten zips. Scouting is your friend.... There are adjustments for injuries. Don’t know about the rest there. Anyways I wasn’t even saying that zips was right about O’Neill just adding that note to the commentary about The Bat’s change in his projections. I do not agree that the projections are no matter than guesswork, but I don’t want to get into that whole thing again
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 30, 2024 7:26:18 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Not to pick on you but... The set of projections originally listed on Fangraphs for Crawford, Houck, O'Neill, Abreu and Wong - to name a handful - were off by so much as to suggest pure guesswork. To give one really egregious example: Steamer projected Wong at .1 WAR for the year. Pro-rated, he should have accumulated less than 2 hundredths of a win at this juncture. The site currently has has him at .7 and Steamer (grudgingly?) upped his guesstimated production to .5 for the year. So he'd better get cracking and lose some value, right?? The same sort of analysis shows large undervaluation for the other names, and via the other projection systems as well. My point is simple: the systems are more useful for the sort of change analysis SoxStats highlights than they are as reliable projections of performance. Caveat emptor. There were posts throwing those numbers around as if they were some sort of ceiling and they are not. I don’t want to get into the whole case here, but just wondering which side you’re seeing these Steamer numbers on? I see him projected for 0.4 additional WAR by Steamer on FG for the rest of the year. No WAR loss required
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 8:10:38 GMT -5
That number was on the original Fangraph projections. It's now changed. If these systems are iterative, re-estimating over time, all well and good. We all need to understand that's how it works rather than give them significance they don't deserve.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 30, 2024 8:18:35 GMT -5
Andrew Bailey's old team is 24th in era. His new team is 1st. Last year his old team was 11th and his new team 22nd. That is a pretty big loss for his old team and a huge gain for his new team. Glad he is ours !!! Bailey was the biggest acquisition of the last offseason….by far!😀
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 30, 2024 8:35:00 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Not to pick on you but... The set of projections originally listed on Fangraphs for Crawford, Houck, O'Neill, Abreu and Wong - to name a handful - were off by so much as to suggest pure guesswork. To give one really egregious example: Steamer projected Wong at .1 WAR for the year. Pro-rated, he should have accumulated less than 2 hundredths of a win at this juncture. The site currently has has him at .7 and Steamer (grudgingly?) upped his guesstimated production to .5 for the year. So he'd better get cracking and lose some value, right?? The same sort of analysis shows large undervaluation for the other names, and via the other projection systems as well. My point is simple: the systems are more useful for the sort of change analysis SoxStats highlights than they are as reliable projections of performance. Caveat emptor. There were posts throwing those numbers around as if they were some sort of ceiling and they are not. ALL the projections are pure guesses as health, usage, as well as other factors render the projections as nothing other than fiction sold in order to make some bucks….fiction and wild ass guesses. A projection is increasing your 401k contribution, so you WILL have less taxable income at the end of the year. This PROJECTION may not include OT or extra income from working on a holiday, but it is a projection. Guess work by some writer based on what SOMEONE ELSE does is just bs sold for money like clickbait. It is not a true projection with any accuracy whatsoever.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 30, 2024 9:47:05 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Not to pick on you but... The set of projections originally listed on Fangraphs for Crawford, Houck, O'Neill, Abreu and Wong - to name a handful - were off by so much as to suggest pure guesswork. To give one really egregious example: Steamer projected Wong at .1 WAR for the year. Pro-rated, he should have accumulated less than 2 hundredths of a win at this juncture. The site currently has has him at .7 and Steamer (grudgingly?) upped his guesstimated production to .5 for the year. So he'd better get cracking and lose some value, right?? The same sort of analysis shows large undervaluation for the other names, and via the other projection systems as well. My point is simple: the systems are more useful for the sort of change analysis SoxStats highlights than they are as reliable projections of performance. Caveat emptor. There were posts throwing those numbers around as if they were some sort of ceiling and they are not. I agree and this was my biggest gripe with projections. There is value to them but everyone off-season potential acquisition or young player debates A lot of arguments were structure in a way where we just simply point to projections as some sort of hard core evidence of potential player production I mean they clearly are garbage in garbage out. The projections for players suck until they don’t. Wong or O’Neill bring examples. And I’d imagine the updated projections will have to bias overshoot now for those two guys
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