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5/20-5/22 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 20, 2024 20:40:38 GMT -5
On vacation, but I caught a bit of the end of the game and highlights. Nice, complete win. Amazing Tanner. Amazing Raffy. Some nice D. Happy!
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Post by dirtdog on May 20, 2024 20:41:04 GMT -5
Raffy listens to the questions in English then answers in Spanish.
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Post by bluechip on May 20, 2024 20:43:18 GMT -5
Idk, I just saw Bradford, Cotillo, etc tweets about it and knew I had to kill the good vibes after a great win ASAP Kid has buzzard luck he just cannot stay healthy. That really really stinks. Cooper Criswell has been shockingly good, hopefully he keeps it up.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 20, 2024 20:58:35 GMT -5
Tanner Houck in two starts against the Rays back-to-back:
12.2 innings 1 ER 7 hits 4 BB 12 k’s 206 pitches
Just unfathomable perhaps a year ago from a guy with such documented issues vs lefties and third time through the order - much less the same team twice in a row for 12+ innings total!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 20, 2024 21:44:30 GMT -5
Haven't had s chance to watch the last two games but apparently Pivetta and Houck pitched excellently.
Dont know if the Sox can figure out their other issues, but if they could a d could make it to the postseason in going to say something I never imagined myself saying before the season, which is they have 4 starters I'd be comfortable with get post season starts.
It looks like Pivetta, Houck, and Crawford have taken big steps up while Bello hasn't really made the big step forward yet but is certainly presentable as a 4th starter.
That's really the headline of the year and it gives them a chance if they can get to the postseason.
They need Casas back badly. If Yoshida is out for a long time and they're truly in it at the deadline they could use a RH DH bat for the middle of the order to pair with O'Neill.
For the time being they can play Hamilton at 2b where he's better defensively and send down Grissom to let him get his legs back underneath him and then revisit in a month or so if/when Grissom forces the issue, which I suspect he will.
They can try out Valdez again at DH and dump Smith if he doesnt do much.
Other than that, play better defense like tonight, make productive outs - the constant strikeouts with men in scoring position is hurting them. Run the bases better, and if they're in it come the deadline a high leverage righty reliever could be quite useful, too.
Getting a righty reliever and a RH hitting DH shouldn't bankrupt the system if they're in go for it mode.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 20, 2024 22:12:28 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2024 1:06:00 GMT -5
Note that James is a noted Houck fan (I'm guessing U Missouri)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 21, 2024 3:54:26 GMT -5
Sox have now won 15 straight games after being the first team to reach a 75% Win Probability. The last time they were, but blew it was when they did so back-to back against the O's, squandering a 94.6% when Martin had nothing and 78.1% when Weissert and then Campbell failed.
Of course, they are also working on a 22-game stretch of losing after the opponents got to 75%. Odds of that being random: 565 to 1.
So ... the most exciting games are those where each team has, at some point, a 75% chance of winning. Drama ensues! We've only see that 5 times this year, the last being on April 16 when the Sox had a 9.3% against the Guardians, got it up to 90.1% and then lost. There was also the Rodriguez collapse game against the Mariners, 82.1% after they put 2 up in the top of the 10th ....
And the sole comeback win, against the A's when they were at 17.7 in the bottom of the 10th, with 1 out and the wining run on 3B, and Winck had what has to be his best relief outing ever (.735 WPA ... a complete-game shutout is .500).
The offensive star in that game, with a an early go-ahead hit and a later tying one? Given the subsequent lack of clutch, a perhaps telling Story.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 21, 2024 7:36:21 GMT -5
Haven't had s chance to watch the last two games but apparently Pivetta and Houck pitched excellently. Dont know if the Sox can figure out their other issues, but if they could a d could make it to the postseason in going to say something I never imagined myself saying before the season, which is they have 4 starters I'd be comfortable with get post season starts. It looks like Pivetta, Houck, and Crawford have taken big steps up while Bello hasn't really made the big step forward yet but is certainly presentable as a 4th starter. Agree with this 100%. When Bello is your #4 guy you are in a good place. It’s early, so we’ll have plenty of time to talk about buying or selling (or both) as we approach July - but like one back-end starter with perhaps a year and a half of control seems to be a pretty attainable piece that you could get to buttress against another injury as well as have to another rotation piece for next year. Think Erick Fedde from the White Sox, Paul Blackburn (currently has a foot injury) from the A’s, Griffin Canning from the Angels etc… But yeah - Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello ain’t a bad quartet to have if they all can actually make it to the finish line.
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Post by jbuttah on May 21, 2024 7:49:32 GMT -5
If they're gonna add, it has to be offense, offense, offense. A right-handed Kyle Schwarber type would be a godsend.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 21, 2024 8:00:41 GMT -5
If they're gonna add, it has to be offense, offense, offense. A right-handed Kyle Schwarber type would be a godsend. 👀
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2024 8:56:11 GMT -5
Haven't had s chance to watch the last two games but apparently Pivetta and Houck pitched excellently. Dont know if the Sox can figure out their other issues, but if they could a d could make it to the postseason in going to say something I never imagined myself saying before the season, which is they have 4 starters I'd be comfortable with get post season starts. It looks like Pivetta, Houck, and Crawford have taken big steps up while Bello hasn't really made the big step forward yet but is certainly presentable as a 4th starter. Agree with this 100%. When Bello is your #4 guy you are in a good place. It’s early, so we’ll have plenty of time to talk about buying or selling (or both) as we approach July - but like one back-end starter with perhaps a year and a half of control seems to be a pretty attainable piece that you could get to buttress against another injury as well as have to another rotation piece for next year. Think Erick Fedde from the White Sox, Paul Blackburn (currently has a foot injury) from the A’s, Griffin Canning from the Angels etc… But yeah - Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello ain’t a bad quartet to have if they all can actually make it to the finish line. Would they actually want to add a back-end starter for next year? They already have Houck, Crawford, Bello, and Giolito for next year. They'll also have like $60 million to spend this offseason. I think for that fifth rotation spot they should aim higher than that.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2024 9:04:10 GMT -5
If they're trading for a 4/5 type starter at the deadline I would assume it would be an impending FA since A) it should cost less and B) with the emergence of Houck and Crawford, Bello continuing to be solid and Giolito coming back they should aim higher in the offseason for said 5th member of the rotation. Next year for depth they'd likely have Criswell, Fitts and whoever else hopefully takes a step forward in the Wilkelman, Perales, Sandlin type of guys.
Then again as we all know you can never have too much pitching so if a 4/5 type starter that has some controllability left is attainable without hurting the farm much it wouldn't be the worst thing either. Also who knows maybe said 4/5 type guy blossoms into something more when Bailey and Co. get their hands on them and tweak their offerings.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 21, 2024 9:16:33 GMT -5
Agree with this 100%. When Bello is your #4 guy you are in a good place. It’s early, so we’ll have plenty of time to talk about buying or selling (or both) as we approach July - but like one back-end starter with perhaps a year and a half of control seems to be a pretty attainable piece that you could get to buttress against another injury as well as have to another rotation piece for next year. Think Erick Fedde from the White Sox, Paul Blackburn (currently has a foot injury) from the A’s, Griffin Canning from the Angels etc… But yeah - Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello ain’t a bad quartet to have if they all can actually make it to the finish line. Would they actually want to add a back-end starter for next year? They already have Houck, Crawford, Bello, and Giolito for next year. They'll also have like $60 million to spend this offseason. I think for that fifth rotation spot they should aim higher than that. I mean this assumes 1) those guys will stay healthy, and 2) the Sox will spend money going into an off-season a high amount under the CBT. I'd like to think both of things will happen, but… *gestures to the last six months*
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2024 9:48:04 GMT -5
Would they actually want to add a back-end starter for next year? They already have Houck, Crawford, Bello, and Giolito for next year. They'll also have like $60 million to spend this offseason. I think for that fifth rotation spot they should aim higher than that. I mean this assumes 1) those guys will stay healthy, and 2) the Sox will spend money going into an off-season a high amount under the CBT. I'd like to think both of things will happen, but… *gestures to the last six months* Yes, things would change if Houck, Crawford, or Bello has to get Tommy John or something before the trade deadline. Assuming that doesn't happen, though, where are the rotation spots? This is a different situation from last offseason because at that time it seemed reasonable that you could have any of Whitlock, Houck, or Crawford in the bullpen if the rotation got too full. But now Houck and Crawford are indisputably starters, along with Bello and Giolito.
As for the spending, the Red Sox obviously spent less on big name free agents than some of us were expecting last offseason. But they still found a way to spend up to $225 million, only $12 million short of the LTT. No reason they shouldn't be in on Burnes or Fried or Buehler, or at least Pivetta.
I will say, though: I'd be totally fine with them going with a 6-man rotation, which just becomes a 5-man rotation whenever someone is injured (which will probably be most of the time). That's how I'd plan things if I were a GM. But for whatever reason teams, including the Red Sox, don't seem to like taking this approach.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 21, 2024 10:00:46 GMT -5
Fun (meaningless) fact, only two players in MLB have more WAR in as many or fewer games played than Devers this year
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Post by badballhitter on May 21, 2024 10:52:44 GMT -5
Haven't had s chance to watch the last two games but apparently Pivetta and Houck pitched excellently. Dont know if the Sox can figure out their other issues, but if they could a d could make it to the postseason in going to say something I never imagined myself saying before the season, which is they have 4 starters I'd be comfortable with get post season starts. It looks like Pivetta, Houck, and Crawford have taken big steps up while Bello hasn't really made the big step forward yet but is certainly presentable as a 4th starter. Agree with this 100%. When Bello is your #4 guy you are in a good place. It’s early, so we’ll have plenty of time to talk about buying or selling (or both) as we approach July - but like one back-end starter with perhaps a year and a half of control seems to be a pretty attainable piece that you could get to buttress against another injury as well as have to another rotation piece for next year. Think Erick Fedde from the White Sox, Paul Blackburn (currently has a foot injury) from the A’s, Griffin Canning from the Angels etc… But yeah - Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello ain’t a bad quartet to have if they all can actually make it to the finish line. Just curious, do you think they could fill that role in exchange for someone in the Yorke/Paulino prospect range? I agree they're in great shape 1-4, but I'd personally like more of an established arm as an upgrade/insurance policy for the 5th spot. However, I also don't want to see them paying too much for that type of player.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2024 10:56:36 GMT -5
Fun (meaningless) fact, only two players in MLB have more WAR in as many or fewer games played than Devers this year But he's still not the player they signed him to be!!!
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Post by notstarboard on May 21, 2024 10:57:17 GMT -5
I mean this assumes 1) those guys will stay healthy, and 2) the Sox will spend money going into an off-season a high amount under the CBT. I'd like to think both of things will happen, but… *gestures to the last six months* Yes, things would change if Houck, Crawford, or Bello has to get Tommy John or something before the trade deadline. Assuming that doesn't happen, though, where are the rotation spots? This is a different situation from last offseason because at that time it seemed reasonable that you could have any of Whitlock, Houck, or Crawford in the bullpen if the rotation got too full. But now Houck and Crawford are indisputably starters, along with Bello and Giolito.
As for the spending, the Red Sox obviously spent less on big name free agents than some of us were expecting last offseason. But they still found a way to spend up to $225 million, only $12 million short of the LTT. No reason they shouldn't be in on Burnes or Fried or Buehler, or at least Pivetta.
I will say, though: I'd be totally fine with them going with a 6-man rotation, which just becomes a 5-man rotation whenever someone is injured (which will probably be most of the time). That's how I'd plan things if I were a GM. But for whatever reason teams, including the Red Sox, don't seem to like taking this approach.
I think the issues with a six-man rotation are: 1) You're now a man short in the pen, so you need more length from your starters. 2) If you have a big talent differential in the rotation, your best guys are used less. If you have six good starters who could give you 6+ innings on average, sure, go with a six man. If you have a few weak links going 4 or 5 every night and maybe one or two guys going bananas at the top of the rotation, stick with five. I think the vast majority of teams find themselves in that second bucket.
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Post by 0ap0 on May 21, 2024 11:17:55 GMT -5
I think the issues with a six-man rotation are: 1) You're now a man short in the pen, so you need more length from your starters. 2) If you have a big talent differential in the rotation, your best guys are used less. If you have six good starters who could give you 6+ innings on average, sure, go with a six man. If you have a few weak links going 4 or 5 every night and maybe one or two guys going bananas at the top of the rotation, stick with five. I think the vast majority of teams find themselves in that second bucket. Also, legit starters are usually really expensive.
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2024 11:23:35 GMT -5
Yes, things would change if Houck, Crawford, or Bello has to get Tommy John or something before the trade deadline. Assuming that doesn't happen, though, where are the rotation spots? This is a different situation from last offseason because at that time it seemed reasonable that you could have any of Whitlock, Houck, or Crawford in the bullpen if the rotation got too full. But now Houck and Crawford are indisputably starters, along with Bello and Giolito.
As for the spending, the Red Sox obviously spent less on big name free agents than some of us were expecting last offseason. But they still found a way to spend up to $225 million, only $12 million short of the LTT. No reason they shouldn't be in on Burnes or Fried or Buehler, or at least Pivetta.
I will say, though: I'd be totally fine with them going with a 6-man rotation, which just becomes a 5-man rotation whenever someone is injured (which will probably be most of the time). That's how I'd plan things if I were a GM. But for whatever reason teams, including the Red Sox, don't seem to like taking this approach.
I think the issues with a six-man rotation are: 1) You're now a man short in the pen, so you need more length from your starters. 2) If you have a big talent differential in the rotation, your best guys are used less. If you have six good starters who could give you 6+ innings on average, sure, go with a six man. If you have a few weak links going 4 or 5 every night and maybe one or two guys going bananas at the top of the rotation, stick with five. I think the vast majority of teams find themselves in that second bucket. The thing is, all 6 guys are rarely going to be healthy, so problem 1 will mostly resolve itself. Consider the Red Sox this seaons in a scenario where they go into spring training with a rotation of Giolito, Imanaga, Bello, Crawford, Houck, and Pivetta.
As for point 2, yeah, it wouldn't be a good idea for most teams, probably. But it could be a good idea for the 2025 Red Sox. Say it were Burnes, Pivetta, Giolito, Houck, Crawford, and Bello - this is a rotation where I'm not worried about the dropoff from the front to the back of the rotation.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 21, 2024 14:12:12 GMT -5
Free Garrett Cooper
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2024 14:20:19 GMT -5
I'd assume at this point that he's hurt. Though we obviously can't trust the team to admit that if it's true.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 21, 2024 15:15:09 GMT -5
I'd assume at this point that he's hurt. Though we obviously can't trust the team to admit that if it's true. After watching him trot lumber around the bases to score a few days ago, I wondered if there wouldn't be some damage control.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 21, 2024 17:10:24 GMT -5
“I don’t have to worry about Wilyer mentally checking out in the middle of a playoff race with 7 weeks to go” - Cora if he were inebriated
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