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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 14, 2014 19:37:40 GMT -5
So Mookie clearly isn't an option right now so this isn't really about him per se. It's worth noting though that a guys peak can often times be early to mid 20s so you can waste a guy in the minors during his best years if you follow too strict a path with number of innings and ABs. If Fred Lynn played today, he may not have enjoyed his best years in the major leagues. Fred Lynn spent a half season in Double-A, and another full season in Triple-A. If anything there's far fewer players buried in the minors today (see: Wade Boggs, Edgar Martinez). Teams are smarter in general and there's a massive financial incentive to get prospects to the majors.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2014 0:54:48 GMT -5
What interests me most about Betts are comments he made last year during his stint in the AFL. Almost casually, he talked of his enthusiasm for the schooling he was getting, watching the spin pitcher's were able to put on the ball and how useful he thought that might be. I wondered at the time how much insight this gave into his ability to pick up pitches. Maybe quit a bit. This is from Tim Hyers the Sox' minor league hitting coordinator in the Speier piece about Betts: He also mentions his "sneaky power" a few times, although at this stage, he can't be sneaking up on too many pitchers. This may be another guy who can spot the spin on a ball more quickly than some players, who catalogs those pitches in short order, and then learns how to act on them in just a few at bats. From that may emerge the fast-twitch decisions in the batter's box that have him tearing apart AA so far. I'm amazed at how he hasn't slowed down a lick since he accelerated into A+.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2014 3:24:17 GMT -5
I'm amazed at how he hasn't slowed down a lick since he accelerated into A+. Let's not forget that he was hitting .150 / .343 / .263 in 105 PA as of last May 5. Since then: .355 / .453 / .563 (235 PA), A .341 / .414 / .551 (211 PA), A+ (so actually, the sort of level adjustment you'd expect) .450 / .500 / .725 (46 PA), AA That's a pretty good calender year, so far.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 15, 2014 4:03:34 GMT -5
I'm amazed at how he hasn't slowed down a lick since he accelerated into A+. Let's not forget that he was hitting .150 / .343 / .263 in 105 PA as of last May 5. Since then: .355 / .453 / .563 (235 PA), A .341 / .414 / .551 (211 PA), A+ (so actually, the sort of level adjustment you'd expect).450 / .500 / .725 (46 PA), AA That's a pretty good calender year, so far. Close but don't forget there was also a short level adjustment when he first started in at A+, therefore, comparing apples to apples,if you remove his A- early numbers and his early A+ numbers, his A+ numbers actually went up a tad.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Apr 15, 2014 9:10:19 GMT -5
Close but don't forget there was also a short level adjustment when he first started in at A+, therefore, comparing apples to apples,if you remove his A- early numbers and his early A+ numbers, his A+ numbers actually went up a tad. So what you're saying is that we should expect him to ascend to his planar form somewhere around the All Star break of his second season in Boston?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 15, 2014 10:19:43 GMT -5
Close but don't forget there was also a short level adjustment when he first started in at A+, therefore, comparing apples to apples,if you remove his A- early numbers and his early A+ numbers, his A+ numbers actually went up a tad. So what you're saying is that we should expect him to ascend to his planar form somewhere around the All Star break of his second season in Boston? Clearly the next Joe Morgan.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Apr 15, 2014 11:21:31 GMT -5
I can see a bench of JBJ (Cf, RF), Cecchini (1b, 3b), and Mookie (SS/2nd, LF) being in place gradually over the course of the year.
It could lead to a situation where the sox are buyers and sellers (or sellers and upgrading internally) at the trade deadline.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2014 12:46:41 GMT -5
For everyone's reference, pasted below is a list of position players who have made their Double-A and MLB debuts in the same season for the Red Sox* since the start of this site during the '03-'04 offseason:
(Red Sox caveat admittedly added to exclude Tim Federowicz, who was called up to the Dodgers after tearing up the PCL - which promotion to Triple-A only even happened after he was traded - following the Bedard trade)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2014 13:55:24 GMT -5
For everyone's reference, pasted below is a list of position players who have made their Double-A and MLB debuts in the same season for the Red Sox* since the start of this site during the '03-'04 offseason: [this space intentionally left blank] OK, I wrote a post, and everything I typed disappeared permanently when I hit the button. And I'm too pissed off to re-type it. And it's way past my bedtime.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Apr 15, 2014 14:16:45 GMT -5
Clearly the next Joe Morgan. Crummy announcer or hunch-following manager? Because I'd rather him just be the guy who makes the name "Mookie" acceptable to say in Red Sox Nation...
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 15, 2014 15:15:01 GMT -5
For everyone's reference, pasted below is a list of position players who have made their Double-A and MLB debuts in the same season for the Red Sox* since the start of this site during the '03-'04 offseason: ... Jed Lowrie 2007? And your start date is designed to exclude Kevin Youkilis in 2003?
woah, sorry, I went blind and saw AA and AAA instead of AA and MLB.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 15, 2014 15:24:36 GMT -5
For everyone's reference, pasted below is a list of position players who have made their Double-A and MLB debuts in the same season for the Red Sox* since the start of this site during the '03-'04 offseason: ... Jed Lowrie 2007? And your start date is designed to exclude Kevin Youkilis in 2003? Youkilis made his AA debut in 2002 and his MLB debut in 2004. Edit: And Lowrie doesn't work either. He debuted in AA in 2007 and MLB in 2008.
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Post by raftsox on Apr 15, 2014 15:27:17 GMT -5
Crummy announcer or hunch-following manager [like Joe Morgan]? Because I'd rather him just be the guy who makes the name "Mookie" acceptable to say in Red Sox Nation... Or how about the 4th best (according to WAR) second baseman in the history of baseball? Because I'll deal with the "after playing career crap" to get that player on the Sox.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Apr 15, 2014 17:47:37 GMT -5
Jed Lowrie 2007? And your start date is designed to exclude Kevin Youkilis in 2003? Youkilis made his AA debut in 2002 and his MLB debut in 2004. Edit: And Lowrie doesn't work either. He debuted in AA in 2007 and MLB in 2008. woah, sorry, I went blind and saw AA and AAA instead of AA and MLB.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 15, 2014 18:39:20 GMT -5
For everyone's reference, pasted below is a list of position players who have made their Double-A and MLB debuts in the same season for the Red Sox* since the start of this site during the '03-'04 offseason: Just for funsies and apple-to-apple comparisons - How does that list compare to the list of Top 100 position players who put up .400+ /.500+ lines at A ball the preceding year, Lancaster excluded?
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Post by jmei on Apr 15, 2014 18:50:41 GMT -5
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 15, 2014 19:02:14 GMT -5
For everyone's reference, pasted below is a list of position players who have made their Double-A and MLB debuts in the same season for the Red Sox* since the start of this site during the '03-'04 offseason: Just for funsies and apple-to-apple comparisons - How does that list compare to the list of Top 100 position players who put up .400+ /.500+ lines at A ball the preceding year, Lancaster excluded? I agree that Betts has as good a shot as anyone to do it if for no other reason than his first exposure to AA came at the start of a season. I bet if you look at the list of top prospects that start a season in AA, many of them get some at bats in the bigs. With that said, talk of him getting called up now is crazy talk. It just wouldn't - and shouldn't - happen. But some late season exposure is certainly plausible.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2014 19:28:31 GMT -5
If someone has time (I DEFINITELY don't, but I don't think it's as hard as it sounds), it would be interesting to see if anyone has done Double-A debut and MLB debut within a calendar year. Bogaerts, for example, came up just short, debuting in AA on 8/9/12 and in MLB on 8/20/13.
The takeaway, however, from the fact that this regime has literally never promoted a player to Boston in the year that he makes his Double-A debut is significant in that, while it's not necessarily completely unrealistic for Betts to make it to the majors this year, it's improbable enough that predicting it to happen is kind of silly. You'd basically be predicting that Betts would perform well enough become a Top 20 prospect in baseball by year's end, to put it another way.
EDIT: Jackie Bradley, duh. Ok, maybe that first part isn't as rare as I thought.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 15, 2014 21:00:16 GMT -5
Elvis Andrus skipped AAA altogether. There have probably been quite a few others in similar situations.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 15, 2014 21:07:24 GMT -5
Andrus also played a full season in Double-A. And he actually doesn't technically fall under under Chris's one-year qualification - he made his Double-A debut on 4/3/08 and his major league debut on 4/6/09.
EDIT: Looks like Ellsbury made his Double-A debut 7/13/06 and his ML debut on 6/30/07.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 15, 2014 22:31:34 GMT -5
If it were going to happen, it probably would be someone who just tore through AA at the beginning of the year.....HMMMM, as in maybe Mookie?
Way too early to tell but Betts sure does look the part. Great patience and approach beyond his years. Taking the ball to RF, even driving it. Relatively good defense. A handy guy to have available to pinch run late in the game. Tearing up AA ball after offensive player of the year in A ball.
Heh, crazier things have happened.
I know he is not as experienced as Pedroia was when drafted, but he is putting up very solid numbers. Is it possible he is another great hand / eye coordination guy who might even be a better overall athlete?
Blasphemy Department:
Pedroia A / A+ ball: .357 .435 .535 .970 Pedroia AA/AAA: .293 .385 .452 .837 Pedroia: AAA( 2006 ) .305 .384 .426 .810
Mookie is not human: A/A+: .314 .417 .506 .923 (approximately same age as Pedey) Mookie ( AA ): .450 .500 .725 1.225
Stolen bases in A ball: Mookie 38 - 4CS, Pedroia 2 - 2CS Huge advantage Mookie Defense: Pedroia was largely error free right from the start. Mookie had 18 last year. Not horrible but trending better recently.
It is still way early but the early returns on the Mookster are looking damm good.
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Post by ikonos on Apr 15, 2014 22:57:31 GMT -5
Making AA and MLB debut in a year spanning two seasons is lot different than doing it in the same season. Off season and ST helps them refine their game, not to mention the physical maturity. I highly doubt Betts will see any big league action this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2014 23:09:17 GMT -5
My point just has to do with the Red Sox, who are strangely quite aggressive in some aspects of placement/advancement and frustratingly conservative in others. This probably falls somewhere between. Anyway, this is why I pulled FedEx out of the sample - I think we could all agree he wasn't getting called to the majors that year with Boston if he was not traded.
I am sure there are plenty of players that other orgs have jumped to MLB that quickly. I was just saying, after having looked at it, that this was not something the Sox do with position players. And I think that if it does happen, you get something like Jackie Bradley, circa April 2013.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 16, 2014 0:09:53 GMT -5
My point just has to do with the Red Sox, who are strangely quite aggressive in some aspects of placement/advancement and frustratingly conservative in others. This probably falls somewhere between. Anyway, this is why I pulled FedEx out of the sample - I think we could all agree he wasn't getting called to the majors that year with Boston if he was not traded. I am sure there are plenty of players that other orgs have jumped to MLB that quickly. I was just saying, after having looked at it, that this was not something the Sox do with position players. And I think that if it does happen, you get something like Jackie Bradley, circa April 2013. LOL Gammons would have had Fedex as the World Series catcher the year before but I think that was before his brain surgery. Another topic, I'll be the one to step out on a limb here. If Mookie keeps progressing as a second baseman, it wouldn't be all that shocking if it was Pedroia that changed positions because he has the better arm. I still recall an amazing play he made at Lowell on a pop flair. No way Dustin even comes close to catching that. Seriously, the only comp I can think of for the skill/tool set is Joe Morgan who was an extremely exciting player to watch day to day. (Not a HOF career prediction, a player type comp).
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 16, 2014 1:24:03 GMT -5
I'm no scout, but even as just a baseball player I can see how solid that is. The way he keeps his wrists back after identifying offspeed is beautiful. (Not a comparison) but... assets.sbnation.com/assets/2559079/Manny-Ramirez-Massive-HR.gifI've never seen Mookie play, but I'm excited to see him, Swihart, and Owens at a road game some time this summer.
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