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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 15, 2015 10:29:38 GMT -5
@ryanhannable: Farrell said there was some thought of putting Mookie Betts at 3B last night, if Hanley couldn't go there.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Apr 15, 2015 13:41:24 GMT -5
@ryanhannable: Farrell said there was some thought of putting Mookie Betts at 3B last night, if Hanley couldn't go there. I'm all for it, give him some added positional flexibility for my fantasy roster.
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Post by jmei on Apr 18, 2015 10:00:11 GMT -5
Not too concerned about this yet, but Mookie's chase rate is way up and his contact percentages on pitches outside the zone are way down, which is fueling a big jump in his whiff rate and his strikeout rate:
| 2014 | 2015 | Chase Rate (O-Swing%)
| 18.9% | 33.0% | Contact on Non-Strikes (O-Contact%)
| 74.4% | 52.2% | Whiff Rate (SwStr%)
| 4.2% | 7.5% | Strikeout Rate
| 14.6%
| 20.8%
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He's been particularly susceptible to pitches down and away, and especially to sliders and curveballs down and away: Again, it's early, and there's plenty of time for Mookie to make the necessary adjustments. But, like Xander last year, he's getting beat with breaking stuff just off the outside of the zone with regularity, and he'll need to learn to lay off those pitches.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Apr 18, 2015 10:56:31 GMT -5
No selfies yet in this thread? Weak!
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Post by dcsoxfan on Apr 18, 2015 11:33:27 GMT -5
Not too concerned about this yet, but Mookie's chase rate is way up and his contact percentages on pitches outside the zone are way down, which is fueling a big jump in his whiff rate and his strikeout rate:
| 2014 | 2015 | Chase Rate (O-Swing%)
| 18.9% | 33.0% | Contact on Non-Strikes (O-Contact%)
| 74.4% | 52.2% | Whiff Rate (SwStr%)
| 4.2% | 7.5% | Strikeout Rate
| 14.6%
| 20.8%
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He's been particularly susceptible to pitches down and away, and especially to sliders and curveballs down and away: Again, it's early, and there's plenty of time for Mookie to make the necessary adjustments. But, like Xander last year, he's getting beat with breaking stuff just off the outside of the zone with regularity, and he'll need to learn to lay off those pitches. This will get fixed. What is really impressive is all that blue. Personally, I think this a consequence of Spring Training. Pitchers weren't "pitching" to the degree they are now that the season has begun. Mookie adjusted his approach to ST pitching, and he will have to revert back to his former approach. He will.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2015 11:34:30 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 8, 2015 6:42:56 GMT -5
As of right now, Mookie is a plus 21 UZR/150 defender in CF with 7 runs saved so far this year (DRS). If Castillo comes up, he should be the one moving to RF.
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Post by soxfanatic on May 8, 2015 7:28:23 GMT -5
As of right now, Mookie is a plus 21 UZR/150 defender in CF with 7 runs saved so far this years (DRS). If Castillo comes up, he should be the one moving to RF. Which he will. He has played 4 games in RF for the PawSox and only one in CF.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 8, 2015 8:13:59 GMT -5
Mookie is a little plate discipline from being our best player.
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Post by diditallforthemookie on May 8, 2015 14:02:31 GMT -5
Mookie is a little plate discipline from being our best player. That's better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2015 8:33:22 GMT -5
Latest Mookie comp: he has 6.3 bWAR in 591 PA / 138 G. Since we're impatient about him finishing the season, let's imagine that this was his age 22 full season. How many guys in MLB history have had a better season (in terms of WAR and WAR/PA), aged 22 or younger, and did it with less preceding pro PA?
Six: Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Alex Rodriguez, and Mike Trout.
Given that two years ago on May 5 he was slugging .263 after his first 105 PA in low-A ball, and that he’s been +19 R/150 in CF by DRS this year (and has looked just that good) after 73 pro games at the position, I think it's safe to say that Mookie Betts is historically great at learning the game of baseball. Just how great a player he will end up remains to be seen, but what he has done in terms of learning the game while playing it professionally has little or no precedent.
And here's a close look at his most common contemporary comp, in terms of trade value (since Dave Cameron is doing his mid-season rankings over at FanGraphs):
Andrew McCutchen broke in at age 22, and at age 24 blossomed from a 3.65 aWAR player (average b and f) into a 5.6. At that point, he had 2223 ml PA and 1146 in MLB.
He then had a 3-year 7.25 aWAR peak, ages 25-27. He’s on a pace for 6.1 this year, and is signed for his ages 29-31 for $41.75M.
Mookie Betts broke in at age 21 with a 5.8 aWAR/150 season and at age 22 is on pace for 6.4. He’s doing this after just 1311 ml PA and 213 in MLB, and after converting to his current defensive position last May 18. He is under team control for five more pre-FA years, his ages 23-27 seasons.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 16, 2015 8:46:15 GMT -5
There should be a "thinking up a Betts extension" thread.
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Post by jchang on Jul 16, 2015 8:47:50 GMT -5
then its time MLB adopts the NBA "maximum offer" rule
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Post by cologneredsox on Jul 16, 2015 10:57:34 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 16, 2015 12:07:47 GMT -5
Latest Mookie comp: he has 6.3 bWAR in 591 PA / 138 G. Since we're impatient about him finishing the season, let's imagine that this was his age 22 full season. How many guys in MLB history have had a better season (in terms of WAR and WAR/PA), aged 22 or younger, and did it with less preceding pro PA? Six: Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Alex Rodriguez, and Mike Trout. Given that two years ago on May 5 he was slugging .263 after his first 105 PA in low-A ball, and that he’s been +19 R/150 in CF by DRS this year (and has looked just that good) after 73 pro games at the position, I think it's safe to say that Mookie Betts is historically great at learning the game of baseball. Just how great a player he will end up remains to be seen, but what he has done in terms of learning the game while playing it professionally has little or no precedent. And here's a close look at his most common contemporary comp, in terms of trade value (since Dave Cameron is doing his mid-season rankings over at FanGraphs): Andrew McCutchen broke in at age 22, and at age 24 blossomed from a 3.65 aWAR player (average b and f) into a 5.6. At that point, he had 2223 ml PA and 1146 in MLB. He then had a 3-year 7.25 aWAR peak, ages 25-27. He’s on a pace for 6.1 this year, and is signed for his ages 29-31 for $41.75M. Mookie Betts broke in at age 21 with a 5.8 aWAR/150 season and at age 22 is on pace for 6.4. He’s doing this after just 1311 ml PA and 213 in MLB, and after converting to his current defensive position last May 18. He is under team control for five more pre-FA years, his ages 23-27 seasons. But Boston talk radio told me three days ago that Mookie was just "a second baseman trapped out of position for the next six years," and that "if this team had a Joc Pederson type, you'd feel a lot better about things going forward." Great stuff though, Eric. Mookie's rise has been an amazing journey to follow thus far, and he'll continue to blossom. There's a lot of sentiment among the casual and/or less educated fans and media that Mookie's been more of an "OK" or "solid" player than a "terrific" one. What's scary to me is, as wrong as those people are, I really do believe he'll continue to make significant strides at the plate. Be on the lookout for a scorching second half from him, and eventual agreement from fans of all backgrounds on just how great Mookie Betts really.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 16, 2015 13:07:00 GMT -5
A simple extrapolation for the rest of the year would put him at 7.6 bWAR. Even more impressive, for me, would be the almost 70 extra base hits he'd accrue. That's really elite company, and as you say he may just be warming up. The uptick in the numbers is because his BABIP has risen to .290, but that still may be low. I could see him adding another 10-20 points to that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 5:52:16 GMT -5
For some reason I can't get this to post to FanGraphs, but I figure that some version of it can go up at the end of the year, when we see just what kind of year he ends up having. Because it appears as if the Mookie doubters (like the guy who claims that Cherington would trade Betts for McCutchen "in a heartbeat") are all expecting him to be an average MLB player over the second half and end up with a WAR in the mid-5.0's, which they would then somehow decide wasn't all that impressive.
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Mookie Betts has been massively better at ages 21 and 22 than Andrew McCutchen was; in fact he's on a pace to have (by bWAR, which is to say, by DRS, which has become a much more comprehensive metric than UZR) a 7.6 season, which would be the second best of McCutchen's career. At age 22. Mookie could be replacement level for the rest of the year and still top McCutchen's bWAR in 154 games at age 23.
Given the huge disparity in contract situation, you'd have to be pretty well convinced that McCutchen was significantly better than Betts, but all the available evidence says the opposite. So you would then have to be fairly convinced that what Betts has done so far in his MLB career has been some kind of fluke, which is to say, that the available evidence is grossly misleading.
What's the rationale for that? He had the 12th best rookie season (bWAR/G, minimum 200 PA) in MLB history of any 21 and younger player, and now he's on pace to become the 18th player in MLB history to have a 7.6 bWAR season at age 22 or younger. There's essentially no one on these two comp lists who then flamed out; in fact, they're almost all HOFers, current or future*.
Oh, and bWAR does not estimate baserunning beyond SB, CS, and advancing on WP/PB. According to BP, he's on a pace for 0.7 extra WAR there. Which closes the gap between McCutchen's best season and Mookie's first full year (rate so far, extrapolated) to 0.2 bWAR.
If all this seems counter-intuitive, McCutchen is a below average defensive CF by all available metrics. Mookie is tied for 4th in DRS in all of MLB, any position.
*7.0 bWAR+ at age 22 or less: Trout, Hornsby, Williams, Cobb, Eddie Collins, ARod, Musial, Ricky, Dick Allen, Matthews, Ripken, Kaline, DiMaggio, Cedeno (if you believe his age), Fregosi, Foxx, Speaker, (Betts' pace), Pinson, Andruw Jones, Bench, Reiser, Ott, Griffey, Aaron.
The least impressive names on that list are Pinson, Cedeno and Fregosi, and they had 23.0, 23.1 and 25.0 WAR over their next 5 seasons respectively. McCutchen is extremely unlikely to match any of those guys in 3 years; he'd have to have his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best seasons. (Even the banged-up Reiser had 8.0 WAR in two years before and after WWII, which is to say, 20.0 extrapolated over 5, and 20.0 is about the best you can hope for from McCutchen). And those are the disappointments.
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Again, that argument will work much better with an actual rather than extrapolated WAR.
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2015 6:30:37 GMT -5
Two things:
(a) You definitely cannot estimate his season-total WAR by extrapolating based on his season-to-date WAR. ZiPS and Steamer have him putting up 1.7 and 1.8 wins the rest of the season, respectively (with similar offensive performance but regressed defensive performance), and I think those marks seem pretty reasonable to me.
(b) Along the same lines, even looking back and not projecting forward, I am very skeptical that Betts had the fourth best defensive season in baseball at any position. He's missed at least three or four plays that I can remember due to bad jumps, he takes circuitous routes, and his arm is average at best. I think DRS has overestimated his defensive performance to date and that it will regress from "best in the league" to "well above-average" going forward (UZR has him at +7/150 this year, which seems more accurate to me). (On the other hand, it's very possible he improves that first step and route efficiency and he may well become the best defensive center fielder in the league. I just don't think he's there yet.)
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 17, 2015 7:02:06 GMT -5
If anything I'd expect Mookie to get better and add more value in the OF. He's young and new to the position so he's still getting better out there. He's made some bad jumps, and reads this year and made up for it with his speed. I expect his judgement to get better and better with more innings and fly balls hit his way.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 7:31:47 GMT -5
Two things: (a) You definitely cannot estimate his season-total WAR by extrapolating based on his season-to-date WAR. ZiPS and Steamer have him putting up 1.7 and 1.8 wins the rest of the season, respectively (with similar offensive performance but regressed defensive performance), and I think those marks seem pretty reasonable to me. (b) Along the same lines, even looking back and not projecting forward, I am very skeptical that Betts had the fourth best defensive season in baseball at any position. He's missed at least three or four plays that I can remember due to bad jumps, he takes circuitous routes, and his arm is average at best. I think DRS has overestimated his defensive performance to date and that it will regress from "best in the league" to "well above-average" going forward (UZR has him at +7/150 this year, which seems more accurate to me). (On the other hand, it's very possible he improves that first step and route efficiency and he may well become the best defensive center fielder in the league. I just don't think he's there yet.) I agree that his defense is likely to regress, since it's been driven by a near-best in MLB +5 runs Arm. He has 6 assists in CF, tied for 5th in MLB among CF. And he's clearly held runners well, too. I don't think there's any way his arm is "average at best"; it may be average in strength but it's been accurate. However, I'll absolutely take the over versus the aggregate .277 / .339 / .432 projection to fill out his .277 / .328 / .464 start. Does anyone actually expect his second half to be a downgrade? His season line still reflects 9 hits of bad BABIP luck (according to my metric based on Hard%, PU%, Oppo%, IFH%, K%, and GB%), 8 of which came in his "slow start." I'll ignore the 1 extra hit since he got hot, since it's not worth doing the recalc: .241 / .296 / .385 through May 27 (206 PA) .321 / .367 / .558 since (169 PA) but that was really .283 / .335 / .444 through May 27 (206 PA) .321 / .367 / .558 since (169 PA) With average BABIP luck (.322 rather than .290), he's at .303 / .352 / .499 on the season, with what looks like a big adjustment midway. One thing we've seen from Mookie so far is that he essentially doesn't do slumps. He may well not sustain the last line the rest of the way, but I have a hard time seeing him return to a bit below what he really did through May 27:.283 / .335 / .444 his first 206 PA, adjusted .277 / .339 / .432 Steamer and ZiPS ROS A much more reasonable projection would be the .303 / .352 / .499 that he's really hit so far. You can justify that either by factoring in the BABIP luck, or by believing that the last 169 PA represent in some part a real adjustment that gives them an extra weight. If both of those things are true (and I think they are), then he exceeds that 850 projection.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 17, 2015 7:39:28 GMT -5
Projections have Mookie 112-116 wRC+ from here on out. I think he does a lot better than that.
Edit - What Eric said
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2015 7:48:09 GMT -5
Don't think you can adjust the first half BABIP so much, especially if you aren't adjusting the second-half BABIP down (you're imputing YTD BABIP numbers to both sets but adjusting only one of them-- you can't adjust for bad luck in one direction and not adjust for good luck in the other). Betts doesn't have much opposite field power and he earned a lot of that bad first half BABIP with lazy fly balls to RF.
ADD: Considering that he did in fact slump for most of May, I think it's disingenuous to argue that he is incapable of slumps going forward.
ADD2: This might just be a semantic difference, but my recollection is that Betts got at least a few of his assists not with plus arm strength or accuracy, but by charging the ball aggressively and just getting to it faster than most CFs. I've not been impressed with the throws themselves. That might be a distinction without a difference, though.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 17, 2015 7:57:13 GMT -5
Don't think you can adjust the first half BABIP so much, especially if you aren't adjusting the second-half BABIP down (you're imputing YTD BABIP numbers to both sets-- you can't adjust for bad luck in one direction and not adjust for good luck in the other). Betts doesn't have much opposite field power and he earned a lot of that bad first half BABIP with lazy fly balls to RF. And his popup problem, which may or may not be improving.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 10:45:34 GMT -5
Don't think you can adjust the first half BABIP so much, especially if you aren't adjusting the second-half BABIP down (you're imputing YTD BABIP numbers to both sets but adjusting only one of them-- you can't adjust for bad luck in one direction and not adjust for good luck in the other). Betts doesn't have much opposite field power and he earned a lot of that bad first half BABIP with lazy fly balls to RF. ADD: Considering that he did in fact slump for most of May, I think it's disingenuous to argue that he is incapable of slumps going forward. ADD2: This might just be a semantic difference, but my recollection is that Betts got at least a few of his assists not with plus arm strength or accuracy, but by charging the ball aggressively and just getting to it faster than most CFs. I've not been impressed with the throws themselves. That might be a distinction without a difference, though. Granted, as sample sizes get smaller, my metric gets less accurate, but, like I said, it was reporting 8 lucky hits overall back when we were bemoaning his having hit the ball right at people, on June 6, 4 days before he "got hot." Now it's reporting 9. So the metric reports no significant good luck since he "got hot." Re slumps, he went 1 for 20 from May 12 to May 17, while the team was scoring 11 runs in 6 games, but he bounced right back and hit .349 / .364 / .442 in his next 10 games. He then hit .163 / .250 / .209 in 13 G / 48 PA (with the team scoring 40 runs); that's when they moved him down to 6-7-8. I'll amend that assertion and say that we've never seen him go into an extended funk. Manny used to go into deep funks which typically lasted 12 games, almost never longer than 18.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2015 12:00:39 GMT -5
Dave Cameron article on Mookie's transformations this year 66 XBH has been pretty ridiculous
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