SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 3, 2016 12:15:43 GMT -5
I think 2016 is the year that Mookie finishes in the top ten of the al mvp award, becomes a all-star, and becomes the teams best hitter after Ortiz retires. Essentially I think Mookie will be the guy that Ortiz "passes the torch" onto becoming the best player in this organization.
Huge Mookie fan here. If the Sox do nothing else this off-season, at the very least sign this guy to a extension. It will save the Sox a lot of money and potential free agent years down the road.
|
|
|
Post by klostrophobic on Jan 3, 2016 17:07:32 GMT -5
He was probably the best player in the organization last year already. 8th in AL in bWAR and 10th in fWAR.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 3, 2016 17:09:22 GMT -5
I've always been a little hazy on what "pure hitter" even means. There's always seems to be a big of a negative connotation to it power-wise. I would say Xander is mentally a better hitter (uses entire field, seems to have more of a plan/approach) and Mookie is potentially a more athletic hitter. But even those descriptions are sort of purposefully vague. Yeah, I agree. I guess I just mean that I personally feel that you can "guarantee" Mookie having a fine year, even if he's pitched outside more often, because he's always hit. But for Xander, I hope he sticks to the strides he made last year, while adding more power. And while trying to do that, his average (and that AVG-inflated OBP) will most likely falter. Maybe not, though. Hopefully not. What are you basing any Xander concerns on? He struggled once in his career as a 21 YO rookie in MLB in 2014, last year was the second lowest OPS he's had in a season with more than 100 AB and he hit .320 too. PS: Your concern was the exception of his professional career not the norm.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jan 3, 2016 20:18:46 GMT -5
I think 2016 is the year that Mookie finishes in the top ten of the al mvp award, becomes a all-star, and becomes the teams best hitter after Ortiz retires. Essentially I think Mookie will be the guy that Ortiz "passes the torch" onto becoming the best player in this organization. Huge Mookie fan here. If the Sox do nothing else this off-season, at the very least sign this guy to a extension. It will save the Sox a lot of money and potential free agent years down the road. If pedroia can stay healthy and bogaerts hits well, then betts has to see more good pitches to hit. Could be a monster year for betts!
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 3:06:59 GMT -5
He was probably the best player in the organization last year already. 8th in AL in bWAR and 10th in fWAR. I just can't say that he's the best all around player when you have Ortiz hitting 35+ homeruns and 100+rbis. He will be if Ortiz does regress in 2016 or he will be after Ortiz retires. I get what you're saying by bringing up the best all around player in the organization already. Ortiz is so dominant with a bat in his hands, I still have to call him the best player on this team (taking pitching aside with Price now in a Sox uniform).
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 5, 2016 7:26:06 GMT -5
He was probably the best player in the organization last year already. 8th in AL in bWAR and 10th in fWAR. I just can't say that he's the best all around player when you have Ortiz hitting 35+ homeruns and 100+rbis. He will be if Ortiz does regress in 2016 or he will be after Ortiz retires. I get what you're saying by bringing up the best all around player in the organization already. Ortiz is so dominant with a bat in his hands, I still have to call him the best player on this team (taking pitching aside with Price now in a Sox uniform). However, there are about 800 players who could play Papi's position and about 10 who could play Mookie's position as well as he does. And you also can't leave out baserunning. This is why we have WAR statistics. Mookie contributes way more than Papi. Not close.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 5, 2016 9:26:15 GMT -5
I just can't say that he's the best all around player when you have Ortiz hitting 35+ homeruns and 100+rbis. He will be if Ortiz does regress in 2016 or he will be after Ortiz retires. I get what you're saying by bringing up the best all around player in the organization already. Ortiz is so dominant with a bat in his hands, I still have to call him the best player on this team (taking pitching aside with Price now in a Sox uniform). However, there are about 800 players who could play Papi's position and about 10 who could play Mookie's position as well as he does. And you also can't leave out baserunning. This is why we have WAR statistics. Mookie contributes way more than Papi. Not close. To be fair in your statement. Your right as there are only about 10 guys who can play Mookie's position AS WELL AS HE CAN. There aren't 800 guys who can play Ortiz's position AS WELL AS HE CAN. Probably closer to 10 as well.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 5, 2016 10:03:54 GMT -5
He was probably the best player in the organization last year already. 8th in AL in bWAR and 10th in fWAR. I just can't say that he's the best all around player when you have Ortiz hitting 35+ homeruns and 100+rbis. He will be if Ortiz does regress in 2016 or he will be after Ortiz retires. I get what you're saying by bringing up the best all around player in the organization already. Ortiz is so dominant with a bat in his hands, I still have to call him the best player on this team (taking pitching aside with Price now in a Sox uniform). Are you comparing them as hitters or to overall contributions to winning? It seems as if you are not aware that you are comparing apples to oranges.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 10:15:24 GMT -5
I just can't say that he's the best all around player when you have Ortiz hitting 35+ homeruns and 100+rbis. He will be if Ortiz does regress in 2016 or he will be after Ortiz retires. I get what you're saying by bringing up the best all around player in the organization already. Ortiz is so dominant with a bat in his hands, I still have to call him the best player on this team (taking pitching aside with Price now in a Sox uniform). Are you comparing them as hitters or to overall contributions to winning? It seems as if you are not aware that you are comparing apples to oranges. I'm saying Ortiz is so dominant with a bat in his hands that Mookie isn't quite as good despite being good to great at everything else tools wise. I'm not going to convince anyone here of that probably. Yes there are 800 players that CAN DH. There is maybe 3-5 players maybe that can hit or produce as a dh, like Ortiz can. Mookie is a overall great player. Ortiz is still a dominant force at the plate. Probably going to get a lot of people believers in WAR mad but Ortiz makes a bigger in more games to me than Mookie does despite not playing defense. It's not a knock against Mookie, it's just a statement of the career of Ortiz. Ortiz could of finished with a top 10 in the mvp voting if the Sox were competitive last year imo. Mookie will get there. I think Mookie will turn into McCutchen eventually actually. He's just not quite there yet but maybe he will get there this season. I'm not ruling anything out with Mookie, he continues to prove everyone wrong in terms of projection and power so far. Based on last season though, he has a little ways to go to get to the kind of impact player Ortiz is.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 5, 2016 10:40:34 GMT -5
Ortiz has not had a season with an fWAR as high as Mookie's last season since 2007. You're basically arguing that WAR is useless and the only thing that matters in baseball is hitting.
I won't argue that Mookie is a better hitter than Papi. But I'll argue forever that Mookie helps win more games than Papi. It's not even close.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 10:59:35 GMT -5
Ortiz has not had a season with an fWAR as high as Mookie's last season since 2007. You're basically arguing that WAR is useless and the only thing that matters in baseball is hitting. I won't argue that Mookie is a better hitter than Papi. But I'll argue forever that Mookie helps win more games than Papi. It's not even close. I watch and listen to a lot of games, I see Ortiz making more impact with the bat than Mookie does overall in his game. Teams fear Ortiz. They don't quite fear Mookie the same way yet. Like I said maybe it's just a difference in opinion but Ortiz is more impactful to me not only because of his overall production but also his presence in a lineup. Teams always have to plan around late in games to get a lefty up to get Ortiz out or have to game plan about the way they can actually get Ortiz out. Like for example it's always funny to me that Tanaka knows to stay away to Ortiz 80% of the time in yankee stadium or he knows he's going to get rocked if he stays inside. War doesn't take into affect of a players presence in the lineup. Take Mookie out of the line-up, what do the Sox do? Probably put in Holt as a leadoff hitter. Take Ortiz out of the line-up, what can the Sox do to replace him? Not a whole lot imo.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 5, 2016 11:17:23 GMT -5
Ortiz has not had a season with an fWAR as high as Mookie's last season since 2007. You're basically arguing that WAR is useless and the only thing that matters in baseball is hitting. I won't argue that Mookie is a better hitter than Papi. But I'll argue forever that Mookie helps win more games than Papi. It's not even close. I watch and listen to a lot of games, I see Ortiz making more impact with the bat than Mookie does overall in his game. Teams fear Ortiz. They don't quite fear Mookie the same way yet. Like I said maybe it's just a difference in opinion but Ortiz is more impactful to me not only because of his overall production but also his presence in a lineup. Teams always have to plan around late in games to get a lefty up to get Ortiz out or have to game plan about the way they can actually get Ortiz out. Like for example it's always funny to me that Tanaka knows to stay away to Ortiz 80% of the time in yankee stadium or he knows he's going to get rocked if he stays inside. War doesn't take into affect of a players presence in the lineup. Take Mookie out of the line-up, what do the Sox do? Probably put in Holt as a leadoff hitter. Take Ortiz out of the line-up, what can the Sox do to replace him? Not a whole lot imo. You are using anecdotal evidence only (never a good thing) and dismissing WAR. Do you understand WAR or are you not a stat person? Perception lags behind reality as Mookie already was ranked according to fangrapsh as the 22nd best player tied with Nelson Cruz who hot 44 HR last year. www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspxpos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0Compare Red Sox focus on the last few columns; www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,a&page=4_30
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 5, 2016 11:28:13 GMT -5
Ortiz has not had a season with an fWAR as high as Mookie's last season since 2007. You're basically arguing that WAR is useless and the only thing that matters in baseball is hitting. I won't argue that Mookie is a better hitter than Papi. But I'll argue forever that Mookie helps win more games than Papi. It's not even close. I watch and listen to a lot of games, I see Ortiz making more impact with the bat than Mookie does overall in his game. Teams fear Ortiz. They don't quite fear Mookie the same way yet. Like I said maybe it's just a difference in opinion but Ortiz is more impactful to me not only because of his overall production but also his presence in a lineup. Teams always have to plan around late in games to get a lefty up to get Ortiz out or have to game plan about the way they can actually get Ortiz out. Like for example it's always funny to me that Tanaka knows to stay away to Ortiz 80% of the time in yankee stadium or he knows he's going to get rocked if he stays inside. War doesn't take into affect of a players presence in the lineup. Take Mookie out of the line-up, what do the Sox do? Probably put in Holt as a leadoff hitter. Take Ortiz out of the line-up, what can the Sox do to replace him? Not a whole lot imo. This makes it sound like you feel Holt is an equal or sufficient replacement to Mookie...
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 11:42:39 GMT -5
I watch and listen to a lot of games, I see Ortiz making more impact with the bat than Mookie does overall in his game. Teams fear Ortiz. They don't quite fear Mookie the same way yet. Like I said maybe it's just a difference in opinion but Ortiz is more impactful to me not only because of his overall production but also his presence in a lineup. Teams always have to plan around late in games to get a lefty up to get Ortiz out or have to game plan about the way they can actually get Ortiz out. Like for example it's always funny to me that Tanaka knows to stay away to Ortiz 80% of the time in yankee stadium or he knows he's going to get rocked if he stays inside. War doesn't take into affect of a players presence in the lineup. Take Mookie out of the line-up, what do the Sox do? Probably put in Holt as a leadoff hitter. Take Ortiz out of the line-up, what can the Sox do to replace him? Not a whole lot imo. You are using anecdotal evidence only (never a good thing) and dismissing WAR. Do you understand WAR or are you not a stat person? Perception lags behind reality as Mookie already was ranked according to fangrapsh as the 22nd best player tied with Nelson Cruz who hot 44 HR last year. www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspxpos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0Compare Red Sox focus on the last few columns; www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,a&page=4_30 No not a big believer in WAR or really stats in general. I call it like I see it. Dave D. would probably love me as a fan. Like I ask one question when it comes to WAR, we always assume that a player is that much above or below WAR but can anyone name me who the replacement level player is? Then can you answer why that player is a replacement level himself and not above or below replacement level? There's no way other than in black and white paper to tell me that Mookie makes the kind of impact that Ortiz and Nelson Cruz makes on a daily basis. These two players are impact producers. Even if Mookie steals more bags or covers more ground, that doesn't mean he is worth more than these two players in general because of the presence they both bring to a lineup. I'm saying all this at present too. Don't let anyone think I'm taking away from Betts. I think he will be this kind of a impact player someday. It would be a travesty if this kid sees free agency in 5 years. I'll end up hating where this organization is headed if that happens. I know I'm not going to convince anyone here to believe in what I'm saying or that I'm trying to swade you one way or the other. This is just how I see things, I like to think that Dombrowski sees things kind of the way I do too.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 5, 2016 11:43:11 GMT -5
I don't think he meant "equal", but Holt has shown he can be adequate in that position. The one thing I'll remember most about Ortiz that cannot be measured, is that team meeting in the dugout during the 2013 World Series, basically willing the team to outperform their opponent, which they did.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 11:44:12 GMT -5
I watch and listen to a lot of games, I see Ortiz making more impact with the bat than Mookie does overall in his game. Teams fear Ortiz. They don't quite fear Mookie the same way yet. Like I said maybe it's just a difference in opinion but Ortiz is more impactful to me not only because of his overall production but also his presence in a lineup. Teams always have to plan around late in games to get a lefty up to get Ortiz out or have to game plan about the way they can actually get Ortiz out. Like for example it's always funny to me that Tanaka knows to stay away to Ortiz 80% of the time in yankee stadium or he knows he's going to get rocked if he stays inside. War doesn't take into affect of a players presence in the lineup. Take Mookie out of the line-up, what do the Sox do? Probably put in Holt as a leadoff hitter. Take Ortiz out of the line-up, what can the Sox do to replace him? Not a whole lot imo. This makes it sound like you feel Holt is an equal or sufficient replacement to Mookie... Holt is not equal to Mookie, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm directly saying that it's easier to replace Betts than it is to replace Ortiz in a lineup. That is my direct point.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 11:51:05 GMT -5
I don't think he meant "equal", but Holt has shown he can be adequate in that position. The one thing I'll remember most about Ortiz that cannot be measured, is that team meeting in the dugout during the 2013 World Series, basically willing the team to outperform their opponent, which they did. Man I'll never forget that moment or the time he hit that game tying bases loaded grand slam in the bottom of the 8th down by 4 runs and needing the grand slam and nothing else to have even a shot of coming back. That one homerun was the reason why the Sox won that series imo. Considering the circumstances, that was the greatest homerun I have ever seen and will ever see. I'll never forget that. Thanks for generally seeing my point too. I know people are going to rip me for not believing the same things or seeing the way they look at things.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 5, 2016 12:09:48 GMT -5
This makes it sound like you feel Holt is an equal or sufficient replacement to Mookie... Holt is not equal to Mookie, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm directly saying that it's easier to replace Betts than it is to replace Ortiz in a lineup. That is my direct point. In a lineup? Sure. But overall production for the team? No, I don't think so.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 12:25:18 GMT -5
Holt is not equal to Mookie, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm directly saying that it's easier to replace Betts than it is to replace Ortiz in a lineup. That is my direct point. In a lineup? Sure. But overall production for the team? No, I don't think so. Okay, I don't see my point getting far here with people loving the other part of Mookie's game overall. It isn't a insult to Betts either if you place him second in the team as the best player to a hall of fame player as Ortiz, who's still is producing the way he has been his entire career. I think if you asked Mookie right now, he'd probably agree that he's not on Ortiz's level yet. That's one reason why I like this kid so much too. Humble and a really good player.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 5, 2016 12:55:39 GMT -5
This makes it sound like you feel Holt is an equal or sufficient replacement to Mookie... Holt is not equal to Mookie, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm directly saying that it's easier to replace Betts than it is to replace Ortiz in a lineup. That is my direct point. Defense and baserunning affect baseball games too. Papi doesn't help the team one bit on defense and he's a terrible base runner. A team with 9 Mookies would beat a team with 9 Papi's about 160 out of 162 games.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 13:13:35 GMT -5
Holt is not equal to Mookie, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm directly saying that it's easier to replace Betts than it is to replace Ortiz in a lineup. That is my direct point. Defense and baserunning affect baseball games too. Papi doesn't help the team one bit on defense and he's a terrible base runner. A team with 9 Mookies would beat a team with 9 Papi's about 160 out of 162 games. Base running and defense is important but imo it's not that much of a impact as Ortiz's bat. You can't have 9 Ortiz's in a lineup. That line of thinking isn't the way you should be thinking. There is only one Ortiz. The Sox are lucky to have him, he's still the best and most impactful player on this team until he retires. Teams aren't gameplanning around Betts right now, they are gameplanning around Ortiz however. His presence is worth a ton. I don't know I can't convince anyone anymore on this subject, I guess I'll leave it alone.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jan 5, 2016 13:26:49 GMT -5
Defense and baserunning affect baseball games too. Papi doesn't help the team one bit on defense and he's a terrible base runner. A team with 9 Mookies would beat a team with 9 Papi's about 160 out of 162 games. Base running and defense is important but imo it's not that much of a impact as Ortiz's bat. You can't have 9 Ortiz's in a lineup. That line of thinking isn't the way you should be thinking. There is only one Ortiz. The Sox are lucky to have him, he's still the best and most impactful player on this team until he retires. Teams aren't gameplanning around Betts right now, they are gameplanning around Ortiz however. His presence is worth a ton. I don't know I can't convince anyone anymore on this subject, I guess I'll leave it alone. Is Papi the team's best hitter? Unequivocally, yes. Is Mookie the team's best all-around player? Probably similarly unequivocally, yes. Does Papi provide unquantifiable value as a veteran leader, a face of the franchise, a vocal stabilizing force, and a mentor? Absolutely. In terms of in-game/on-field contributions, Mookie provides more. Any argument to the contrary relies on anecdotal evidence. But at this point, I think it's at least reasonable to think that Papi is the team's most important player, in light of his off-field contributions/leadership. Regardless, at least we get to enjoy watching them both on the field, with the Sox, for one last year.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 13:32:03 GMT -5
Base running and defense is important but imo it's not that much of a impact as Ortiz's bat. You can't have 9 Ortiz's in a lineup. That line of thinking isn't the way you should be thinking. There is only one Ortiz. The Sox are lucky to have him, he's still the best and most impactful player on this team until he retires. Teams aren't gameplanning around Betts right now, they are gameplanning around Ortiz however. His presence is worth a ton. I don't know I can't convince anyone anymore on this subject, I guess I'll leave it alone. Is Papi the team's best hitter? Unequivocally, yes. Is Mookie the team's best all-around player? Probably similarly unequivocally, yes. Does Papi provide unquantifiable value as a veteran leader, a face of the franchise, a vocal stabilizing force, and a mentor? Absolutely. In terms of in-game/on-field contributions, Mookie provides more. Any argument to the contrary relies on anecdotal evidence. But at this point, I think it's at least reasonable to think that Papi is the team's most important player, in light of his off-field contributions/leadership. Regardless, at least we get to enjoy watching them both on the field, with the Sox, for one last year. Yeah this debate kind of reminds me of the MVP debate. Who's the most valuable player to their team versus who's the best player in the league. There's no wrong answer. Glad to have them both.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 5, 2016 13:47:15 GMT -5
I'm definitely more concerned about Bogaerts taking a (relative) step back when trying to introduce more power this season than with Mookie potentially facing fewer inside/pullable pitches. Nothing against Bogaerts at all, and I haven't read up or heard much regarding this, but does anybody else feel like Betts is almost a purer hitter, than Xander is? I feel like Xander's lows and slumps could be (and have been) significantly worse than Mookie's could be. Mookie did start off relatively slow and slumped at times, but I distinctly recall a ton of line drives and flies simply not falling in. For Xander, we've seen (in 2014) how bad it is when he tries to do too much and pull everything. I hope Xander steadily progresses and doesn't try to rapidly become more powerful this season, and I hope Mookie can walk a bit more. He doesn't have to hit more homers, but I do hope Xander does. If they both end up as being 15-20 homer guys, with Mookie having a higher AVG and OBP, but Xander a better SLG, I won't be disappointed. But I don't know how likely it is that Xander ever becomes "that" 30 homer guy. Everyone is so obbsessed with Xander getting more power out of the short stop position and wants him to focus on hitting for more power. I don't get it. The reason why I like Xander is because he was willing to go the other way and focus on getting on base more and get more base hits. Power is usually the last thing to come with young hitters. I don't care if he's hitting around 10 homeruns a year if he keeps hitting, I really don't. If the power comes, I want it to come naturally and don't change his approach at the plate at all. Xander made himself into a way better player last year because of that approach. I hope he doesn't change a dang thing about it.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
|
Post by nomar on Jan 5, 2016 14:26:39 GMT -5
I hope he does. Bogaerts needs to walk more for sure. Some of that will come as he grows into more power, but in general he was way too aggressive. He won't sustain his offensive production walking that seldomly.
|
|
|