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8/2-8/4 Red Sox @ Rangers Series Thread
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 4, 2024 20:47:13 GMT -5
Red Sox have to trade one of Rafaela, Abreu or Anthony this offseason I think (presuming Duran is safe), latest by next deadline. I think my preference would be Rafaela but Abreu is still probably the cleanest
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 4, 2024 21:18:36 GMT -5
I don't see why you can't have all four of those guys on a roster. Rafaela plays every day vs lefties, gets aggressively subbed in defensively and plays every day when anyone gets hurt. That's a lot of PA. Over a two year horizon there's a pretty strong chance that at least one of them is not playing well and they don't actually have three guys you want to give an everyday role to.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 4, 2024 21:27:56 GMT -5
I expect the Sox to make a QO on Pivetta and O'Neil but not sign them. Both would likely accept.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 4, 2024 21:31:26 GMT -5
Red Sox have to trade one of Rafaela, Abreu or Anthony this offseason I think (presuming Duran is safe), latest by next deadline. I think my preference would be Rafaela but Abreu is still probably the cleanest I feel this would be more of a 2025 off-season problem. Anthony while approaching is still in AA There probably is a world where Duran is traded in 2026 as a 30 year old. Not saying he is traded, but I don’t really see a reason to ever extend him as he is an FA when he is 32
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 4, 2024 22:17:50 GMT -5
I didn't see it mentioned but in the Athletic article it said Wilyer lost his grandmother last night.
We are sorry for your loss Wilyer.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 4, 2024 22:22:38 GMT -5
I expect the Sox to make a QO on Pivetta and O'Neil but not sign them. Both would likely accept. I doubt it, ASSUMING THEY STAY HEALTHY, O'Neil is 29 and already has 2.3 bWAR. Pivetta 31 and 1.2 bWAR. This might be both players best shot at a long contract and I don't see a fit with the Sox (long term). If either accepted, they'd likely be traded that off-season.
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gerry
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Posts: 1,768
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Post by gerry on Aug 4, 2024 22:53:21 GMT -5
Gonna say it again. Playing as though healthy yet still playing without their starting 1B, 2B, SS, a couple of SP and RP. This is a good team. Lotsa rookie mistakes because lotsa rookies and recent rookies. I like them a lot and will enjoy their ascents, individually and together. Nite all.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 4, 2024 23:14:17 GMT -5
Both would likely accept. I doubt it, ASSUMING THEY STAY HEALTHY, O'Neil is 29 and already has 2.3 bWAR. Pivetta 31 and 1.2 bWAR. This might be both players best shot at a long contract and I don't see a fit with the Sox (long term). If either accepted, they'd likely be traded that off-season. I don't understand why people don't see a fit for either O'Neil or Pivetta on the Sox long term. The team's weakness on offense is that they do not have enough right-handed hitters to get after left handed pithing. O'Neil is their best right handed power hitter. If you don't resign him you are going to have to go out and get someone to replace him plus probably another right handed bat. Why not just sign him for 3 or 4 more years? Anthony is at least another year away and there is still a risk he will not pan out. If he does pan out, you can trade either him or Abreu for pitching. Of the top 10 prospects on this site, only 2 are pitchers and one of them is recovering from surgery. The Sox are going to need to acquire starting pitching somehow and trading an excess left-handed hitting outfielder may be one way. Last year we failed to resign Paxton and traded Sale. So at the deadline this year, we had to go out and give up prospects to get Paxton back and we still have a couple of starters who look gassed. Pivetta isn't an ace, but he takes the ball every 5 days and eats innings. Why would you not want him back? Are the Sox going to repeat the same mistake they have made the last 2 years and not resign a starter? You need to have about 8 starters going into a year as you can be pretty sure than some of them are going to get hurt or not be effective. Great series win against the defending World Series champs on the road. The bullpen seems to have straightened itself out with the deadline acquisitions. Now the question is what to do about Houck and Crawford.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 4, 2024 23:33:02 GMT -5
I doubt it, ASSUMING THEY STAY HEALTHY, O'Neil is 29 and already has 2.3 bWAR. Pivetta 31 and 1.2 bWAR. This might be both players best shot at a long contract and I don't see a fit with the Sox (long term). If either accepted, they'd likely be traded that off-season. I don't understand why people don't see a fit for either O'Neil or Pivetta on the Sox long term. The team's weakness on offense is that they do not have enough right-handed hitters to get after left handed pithing. O'Neil is their best right handed power hitter. If you don't resign him you are going to have to go out and get someone to replace him plus probably another right handed bat. Why not just sign him for 3 or 4 more years? Anthony is at least another year away and there is still a risk he will not pan out. If he does pan out, you can trade either him or Abreu for pitching. Of the top 10 prospects on this site, only 2 are pitchers and one of them is recovering from surgery. The Sox are going to need to acquire starting pitching somehow and trading an excess left-handed hitting outfielder may be one way. Last year we failed to resign Paxton and traded Sale. So at the deadline this year, we had to go out and give up prospects to get Paxton back and we still have a couple of starters who look gassed. Pivetta isn't an ace, but he takes the ball every 5 days and eats innings. Why would you not want him back? Are the Sox going to repeat the same mistake they have made the last 2 years and not resign a starter? You need to have about 8 starters going into a year as you can be pretty sure than some of them are going to get hurt or not be effective. Great series win against the defending World Series champs on the road. The bullpen seems to have straightened itself out with the deadline acquisitions. Now the question is what to do about Houck and Crawford. For the right handed hitter, we are missing Story and Grissom and we picked up Jensen. That balances the lineup next year. I fully expect Breslow to acquire more pitching this off season but not a big ticket, there will be non-tenders and teams willing to trade pitching for hitting. Paxton cost peanuts and the beauty of the sum of the trades makes it possible (probable) to acquire more from teams that are tighter on their 40 man than the Sox now are. Whether that be August 31st, non tender deadline or before the 40 man is set, he now has room to maneuver.
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 4, 2024 23:43:19 GMT -5
Both would likely accept. I doubt it, ASSUMING THEY STAY HEALTHY, O'Neil is 29 and already has 2.3 bWAR. Pivetta 31 and 1.2 bWAR. This might be both players best shot at a long contract and I don't see a fit with the Sox (long term). If either accepted, they'd likely be traded that off-season. I couldn't find the specific rule but once a player accepts a QO, I don't believe the team can immediately trade him. They can at a later date during the season, it might have been May 15th or June 1st. I think that's also the rule for those accepting arb, but those players can later be cut in spring training.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 4, 2024 23:59:21 GMT -5
I doubt it, ASSUMING THEY STAY HEALTHY, O'Neil is 29 and already has 2.3 bWAR. Pivetta 31 and 1.2 bWAR. This might be both players best shot at a long contract and I don't see a fit with the Sox (long term). If either accepted, they'd likely be traded that off-season. I couldn't find the specific rule but once a player accepts a QO, I don't believe the team can immediately trade him. They can at a later date during the season, it might have been May 15th or June 1st. I think that's also the rule for those accepting arb, but those players can later be cut in spring training. It still makes little sense for them to accept a QO and risk their financial future.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 5, 2024 0:01:45 GMT -5
I expect the Sox to make a QO on Pivetta and O'Neil but not sign them. Both would likely accept. TON would accept but having a hard time seeing Pivetta saying yes. I think he could get 3 or 4 year deal for $15-18 million/season.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 5, 2024 5:13:15 GMT -5
Both would likely accept. TON would accept but having a hard time seeing Pivetta saying yes. I think he could get 3 or 4 year deal for $15-18 million/season. Please explain because I honestly feel the opposite. Pivetta has been here for a long time it's pretty much all he knows and he's inconsistent. TON is a bridge guy that we needed for RH power and is more valuable elsewhere because of the young guys we got and no future here no matter how well he does.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2024 6:05:52 GMT -5
Both would likely accept. TON would accept but having a hard time seeing Pivetta saying yes. I think he could get 3 or 4 year deal for $15-18 million/season. I think neither TO or Pivetta would accept a QO. O'Neill could probably get a 3 year deal for around 45 - 50 million. He's on a pace for 30 something HRs again. Hes OPSing near .900. He'll get a deal better than a QO. It's too bad because the Sox could use his services for another season, as I think 2026 is more likely when Campbell could take over his role as RH power. I think TO would help the Sox more as a DH next season, but Breslow would have to find a way to deal Yoshida which woukdnt be easy. Ideally the DH would be RH to help balance the lineup. But I honestly dont see that scenario playing out because I'm pretty sure TO gets a better offer elsewhere. I have always had a feeling that hes the 21st century version of Nick Esasky for this fanbase, traded to Boston for a year, have an excellent 30 plus HR season and then depart as a free agent. If I'm wrong and he stayed for a year, that would be ideal for the Sox but hed probably be leaving 25 - 30 million on the table to do so. Probably a similar scenario to Pivetta. I'd rather see the Sox focus on coming away with Burnes this offseason, although theyd probably get a draft pick once Pivetta signs elsewhere after a QO offer.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 5, 2024 6:35:29 GMT -5
I don't see why you can't have all four of those guys on a roster. Rafaela plays every day vs lefties, gets aggressively subbed in defensively and plays every day when anyone gets hurt. That's a lot of PA. Over a two year horizon there's a pretty strong chance that at least one of them is not playing well and they don't actually have three guys you want to give an everyday role to. Theres two things that it sort of hinges on for me: 1) is Rafaela’s infield defense good enough or is he much more valuable as an every day outfielder, I’m not convinced he shouldn’t focus purely on CF where he has elite defensive potential 2) is keeping them a better use of resources than trading one for something else. I agree they could hypothetically fit, but I’m not sure thats maximizing the value of the assets, maybe it is but you have to at least explore the returns. Also, as of now in MLB Rafaela doesn’t really have platoon splits so using him just against lefties seems sub-optimal, and in a world where you have Story at SS, Duran in CF and good corner OFs in Anthony and Abreu how much value is Rafaela as a defensive sub really adding? It’s a role that makes sense but maybe has less value to the Red Sox specifically
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 5, 2024 7:18:32 GMT -5
I think eventually the calculus is who in a trade would make Redsox net better
But also Rafaela is an easy contract to carry for while if he is backing up say all OF spots, SS, and maybe 2B. With speed and a little bit of pop
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 5, 2024 8:31:35 GMT -5
I think eventually the calculus is who in a trade would make Redsox net better But also Rafaela is an easy contract to carry for while if he is backing up say all OF spots, SS, and maybe 2B. With speed and a little bit of pop Not only that, but he has the arm and range to play RF in Fenway probably better than Abreu and I suspect could play ss, 2b AND 3b as well as any team's backup. Not only that he brings an improving bat as he adjusts to mlb pitching and while he's never going to be a high obp guy he has pop, speed and has an average or better BA. He's still young and learning, what was Jarren Duran doing at age 23? And he's cost controled for EIGHT years, there's a reason the Sox we're obviously eager to do that when it was far from necessary. He's not going anywhere unless there is a true Number 1 coming back.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 5, 2024 14:28:09 GMT -5
I expect the Sox to make a QO on Pivetta and O'Neil but not sign them. Both would likely accept. Im not so sure. Depending on how they finish the season, maybe , maybe not. Also depending on sox pitching plan and RH hitter plan. Dout they sign these guys and go after another top pitcher. Id probably rather try and get Ton at 3/39range and probably let Pivetta walk and try and find a true 1
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 5, 2024 17:02:55 GMT -5
So you think TON would turn down 1/$20M and accept 3/$39M? That would be wild of him to do. If he has a QO attached to him, 3/$39 might be the top end of his market though, I agree.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 5, 2024 18:32:58 GMT -5
So you think TON would turn down 1/$20M and accept 3/$39M? That would be wild of him to do. If he has a QO attached to him, 3/$39 might be the top end of his market though, I agree. Given his injury history? Could easily see the 3/39M working out better for him, I'd certainly rather the Sox sign him at 1/20 than 3/39 though our payroll and prospect situation contribute to that.
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 5, 2024 22:14:41 GMT -5
A little about Cora's decision making if you don't have a subscription to the Athletic. Monaco today said Wilyer had dedicated the Sunday game to his grandmother without telling anyone she had died and just lost it when that dedication turned into a homerun. Alex said he only learned about it then.
Concerning his decision to let Wilyer hit against the lefty he said "God is good. That's the way I put it. Sometimes you make decisions in the game by the metrics. But I'll tell you right now, I let him hit because I was like, something good is going to happen here against a lefty. That's life."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 5, 2024 22:51:57 GMT -5
Just for reference and the reason I said if healthy, TON is on a 4.3 bWAR/150 pace. That has been rising fast because of all the games he played on a gimpy leg.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 7, 2024 11:13:06 GMT -5
So you think TON would turn down 1/$20M and accept 3/$39M? That would be wild of him to do. If he has a QO attached to him, 3/$39 might be the top end of his market though, I agree. I would like to have TON at either of those numbers, but tightness to the cap makes it tough. It's for that reason that we should be looking to off-load Yoshida's contract this offseason, or even a large portion of it. It's not that Yoshida is a straight up bad player (though sometimes he is), but that his contract keeps us from doing other rational things.
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