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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 28, 2024 21:41:12 GMT -5
All this talk about where we seed for the draft and watch us win the lottery and it doesn't matter. Or watch someone below us move in and push us from 9th to 12th anyways.
Also, a reminder that in 2020 we thought the team screwed up by winning 5 of their last 7, but we still ended up with Mayer. And we've gotten great talent at 12 and 14 the past two years.
12th vs. 9th is a big jump but Priester having a good start is a more meaningful outcome for the future of the Red Sox. So if they do lose, great, but hopefully it's because the offense doesn't help him or the bullpen implodes.
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Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 29, 2024 10:56:18 GMT -5
All this talk about where we seed for the draft and watch us win the lottery and it doesn't matter. Or watch someone below us move in and push us from 9th to 12th anyways. Also, a reminder that in 2020 we thought the team screwed up by winning 5 of their last 7, but we still ended up with Mayer. And we've gotten great talent at 12 and 14 the past two years. 12th vs. 9th is a big jump but Priester having a good start is a more meaningful outcome for the future of the Red Sox. So if they do lose, great, but hopefully it's because the offense doesn't help him or the bullpen implodes. The higher slot also comes with quite a bit more money. I'm ok sacrificing 1 bad start for the #9. |
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Post by azblue on Sept 29, 2024 11:15:30 GMT -5
I would prefere an excellent start by Priester and suffer through the usual silent bats when our starter pitches well.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 29, 2024 11:44:35 GMT -5
I would prefere an excellent start by Priester and suffer through the usual silent bats when our starter pitches well. Exactly. Lots of Red Sox lasers off the wall only to get thrown out trying to stretch into a triple. Sign me up for a close loss. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 29, 2024 13:29:58 GMT -5
I would prefere an excellent start by Priester and suffer through the usual silent bats when our starter pitches well. Exactly. Lots of Red Sox lasers off the wall only to get thrown out trying to stretch into a triple. Sign me up for a close loss. It would be exciting to see Duran thrown out at third twice and wind up with 50 doubles. But the triangle breeds more triples than the wall. A laser off the wall can be a single. |
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Post by jdb on Sept 29, 2024 16:50:47 GMT -5
Looks like the difference in 9 and 13 was about 944K in slot last year.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 29, 2024 16:52:23 GMT -5
Maybe the last day win will give us good karma going into the lottery
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finaliz3d
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 29, 2024 19:32:43 GMT -5
Looks like the difference in 9 and 13 was about 944K in slot last year. Yep, about 1m less to spend if you want to target a guy in the 2nd/later rounds with upside, you get an 8% chance of moving up into the top 6. Not the end of the world, but it does feel like a waste of a season when you're in the middle. Not good, not bad, just kind of eh. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2024 19:35:55 GMT -5
Looks like the difference in 9 and 13 was about 944K in slot last year. Yep, about 1m less to spend if you want to target a guy in the 2nd/later rounds with upside, you get an 8% chance of moving up into the top 6. Not the end of the world, but it does feel like a waste of a season when you're in the middle. Not good, not bad, just kind of eh. Finishing in the middle and drafting in the middle is a good way to stay in the middle. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 29, 2024 19:41:57 GMT -5
Yep, about 1m less to spend if you want to target a guy in the 2nd/later rounds with upside, you get an 8% chance of moving up into the top 6. Not the end of the world, but it does feel like a waste of a season when you're in the middle. Not good, not bad, just kind of eh. Finishing in the middle and drafting in the middle is a good way to stay in the middle. This ain’t the nfl or nba and they have arguably 4 top 25 guys in AAA. I don’t see them sticking in the middle too much longer |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 29, 2024 19:45:11 GMT -5
Yep, about 1m less to spend if you want to target a guy in the 2nd/later rounds with upside, you get an 8% chance of moving up into the top 6. Not the end of the world, but it does feel like a waste of a season when you're in the middle. Not good, not bad, just kind of eh. Finishing in the middle and drafting in the middle is a good way to stay in the middle. Yeahhh I don’t think this really tracks at all with the way the MLB draft works. Not that continuing to finish in the middle is good but the draft just isn’t that influential at the top. Of the 4 prospects the Sox have that are top 25 in baseball, 3 of them came either in the first round beyond the top 10 picks or as a result of a mid-to-late first round position |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 29, 2024 20:15:59 GMT -5
13th pick probably has about a 48% chance to have a better career than the 9th pick, it's not the end of the world
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2024 20:36:40 GMT -5
Finishing in the middle and drafting in the middle is a good way to stay in the middle. This ain’t the nfl or nba and they have arguably 4 top 25 guys in AAA. I don’t see them sticking in the middle too much longer I was being sort of facetious. But there is a kernel of truth in it. I mean, we saw the Astros and Orioles build themselves into strong franchises picking toward the top. A decade prior to that the Nationals and the Cubs improved themselves in that fashion as well. With the lottery, it's not a given you draft at the top as the A's can attest to. Still, while drafting isn't an exact science, the "odds" are a bit against a team drafting in the middle even though the Sox have had two highly rated draft guys fall to them at 12. The larger point is that it's tougher to rebuild in theory picking in the middle, although the Sox do have a strong core of young hitters coming up and let's face it, the Dodgers pick at the bottom constantly and still put together a strong farm system year in and year out, and to an extent you can say the same thing about the Yankees who normally pick in the 20s but still have a decently rated farm system year in and year out. |
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finaliz3d
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 29, 2024 21:43:34 GMT -5
Looks like the difference in 9 and 13 was about 944K in slot last year. Yep, about 1m less to spend if you want to target a guy in the 2nd/later rounds with upside, you get an 8% chance of moving up into the top 6. Not the end of the world, but it does feel like a waste of a season when you're in the middle. Not good, not bad, just kind of eh. Did think of something actually. With how probabilities work, the Red Sox have a much better chance of moving up into the top 6 than 8% and I've been doing the math slightly wrong... (assuming I'm still not doing the math wrong)
The Red Sox over the last two years since the draft lottery was put in place have been at a similar spot to move up in the lottery and haven't, so essentially it's not 6 tries, it's 18 tries including this year. The Red Sox's odds on average of moving up into the top 6 have been 1.45%, this is adding up the percentage chances of moving up to each top 6 spot over the last two years and this year's chances according to Tankathon and dividing by 18. Taking 1.45% and trying 18 times, our odds of moving up are actually 23.119%. Put simply, if you were to attempt this 18 times, on average you would move up about four times on average. So, mathematically at least I would bet on the Red Sox actually moving up in the draft this year... of course, this is just mathematically, and has no bearing on what actually happens in reality.
Of course, the chance would have been even higher had we finished 9th as it would bump our average odds up to 2.283% and it would have given us a 34% chance of moving up which means it would be expected that you would move up 6 times for every 18 tries and would mean it would be almost a certainty, mathematically at least, that we would move up. There's also the possibility that the odds slightly change as the odds were altered between the 2023 and 2024 drafts, so the math could be wrong even if I've done the math correct here. (Basically, what I'm trying to say is, don't take this too seriously)
edit: with the updated odds it's probably closer to 25.3% chance we move up.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 29, 2024 22:10:59 GMT -5
The only thing that sucks is losing out on the extra money that would have been used to maneuver around otherwise the quality of the player you get at 9th vs 13th ain’t that big (in some classes non at all).
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 29, 2024 22:40:14 GMT -5
The only thing that sucks is losing out on the extra money that would have been used to maneuver around otherwise the quality of the player you get at 9th vs 13th ain’t that big (in some classes non at all). Hell sometimes you’ll get the higher regarded prospect at 13, like you said the only real loss is the larger bonus pool. Not the end of the world, I prefer being .500 and in 3rd vs below .500 in 4th lol |
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Post by sxfan on Oct 3, 2024 11:22:49 GMT -5
The Rays got the 12th pick. The Giants got the 9th pick. I would have been ticked at the Rays getting the 9th pick. Now I can feel better knowing the 9th pick doesn't affect the Sox and stay in the division.
When is the lottery held?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 3, 2024 11:29:09 GMT -5
Last year it was the first day of the winter meetings, which would be Dec 8 this year
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Post by ramireja on Oct 3, 2024 12:02:13 GMT -5
I think the extra bonus pool $ isn't as big of a deal as it may sound. I think regardless of where the Sox pick....their strategy in recent years (with Mayer being the exception) has been to draft the best available player willing to accept some $ amount under their own 1st round bonus pick slot value. So whether our slot is $6.5M and we sign a player at $6M or our slot is $5.5 and we sign a player at $5M....we will probably walk from either slot position with similar savings regardless. After the first round, the difference in slot money between just a few positions in each round is relatively trivial. The other place where this comes into play is the 5% overage, but 5% of say a $1.2M bonus pool difference is $60,000 and that won't make a meaningful difference in our draft class. So really, I don't the think the difference in bonus pool money really has much impact at all.
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Post by ixnayexxus on Oct 3, 2024 13:40:47 GMT -5
Truth be told, the ability to trade draft picks (beyond CB picks) in baseball would arguably be more significant than in any other sport, as someone acquiring the seventh overall pick would not only gain that, but the extra slot money to maneuver with as well; it could really expedite some rebuilds around the league.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 3, 2024 16:22:49 GMT -5
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finaliz3d
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 3, 2024 16:26:20 GMT -5
So the numbers I posted are even higher then, woo! |
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Post by azblue on Oct 5, 2024 22:27:09 GMT -5
To quote JIm Carrey in Dumb and Dumber: "So, you are saying that I have a chnace?!!"
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Oct 6, 2024 9:43:17 GMT -5
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